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The economics of patents

Merit course – 2005
 Motivation: to see “how patents work” and
 how economic theory can help to design
 them
 the role of patents
 patent length
 Other patent dimensions
IBM vs Apple

        Winners & losers?
                                                                              1000
 45
 40
                                                                                                                              Microsoft
 35                                                                            100
 30
 25
                                                                                                                                 Intel
                                                                                10
 20                                                                                       Compaq
 15                                                                                                                           Apple
 10                                                                               1

  5                                                                                                             IBM
  0
                                                                                  0
      1981


             1983


                    1985

                            1987


                                    1989


                                            1991

                                                    1993


                                                               1995


                                                                      1997




                                                                                   1985      1987        1989   1991   1993    1995       1997
Bron: Harvard Business School Apple case studies 1992 & 1998                 Bron: Worldscope database
Technology Spillovers and incentives

 The problem that spillovers create is an
 incentive problem
 This may be solved by the award of a patent:
 the legal monopoly to be the only user of an
 invention
 Monopolies make an economist alert!
 Technology spillovers are not totally bad: they
 are a source of welfare
  – Example: the history of the personal computer
The role of patents

 The three Ps:
  – Patronage (e.g., universities)
  – Procurement (e.g., defense or public sector
    research institutes)
  – Patents
 Patents and spillovers: publication of
 patented inventions
Designing patents

 Can we design a patent that strikes the
 balance between incentive and welfare
 generation?
 Patent length, breadth, width and height
Patents and spillovers – How can
patents leave spillovers?
 Patentable and non-patentable parts of
 knowledge
 Standing on the shoulders of giants
 Rent spillovers
Nordhaus model of patent length

 Minor and drastic innovations
Nordhaus model of patent length

 Longer patents create a longer profit stream
 for the inventor, but at a decreasing rate
 (profits far away in the future are worth less)
Nordhaus model of patent length


                               Maximum profit for a monopolist
      minor
               (A Bc) (c c),


          qx
               A
                               Value of the consumer surplus
      S                cd.
                   B
          0
Nordhaus model of patent length

                                                                                     Invention possibilities function
                                       cc
                                                       R,
                                           c
                                   T

                                                                                         NPV of net profits
                                           minor
                          V                        e   d        R.
                                   0
      T                                                                                     T
                                                                                     1e
  V       c R (A Bc)e                  d       R c R (A Bc)                                         R.
      0
                                                                     T
              V                                         1e
                              (1       )
                      cR                   (A Bc)                            10
              R
                                                                                                Optimal R&D
                                                                         1
                                                                T
                                                       1e
                                                                                                expenditures
                                                                     1
                      R        c(A Bc)                                           .

                                                       T                                        T
                                               1e                                        1e
                                                            1
          V       c       c(A Bc)                                   (A Bc)
                                                                                                         Resulting NPV of
                                                                             1
                                                                                                         profits
                                                                T
                                                       1e                1
                                   c(A Bc)                                           .
Nordhaus model of patent length

 NPV of profits for varying patent duration
Nordhaus model of patent length

 Longer patents create less consumer welfare
 (they leave a shorter period for consumers to
 benefit from all the advantages of the patent)
Nordhaus model of patent length

                                                                      Total welfare resulting
                                                      T
                                              e
             WV                e   d    V                 .
                                                                      from innovation
                           T




              q x(c)
                       A                    1
                                                                          Consumer surplus after
                                              B(c c)2,
                                   cd
                           B                2
                                                                          patent runs out
              q x(c)




                                                           2
                                                                              Part of total welfare due
        T                                         T                       T
    e       12                           1e                       e
                       2                                  1
              Bc               c(A Bc)
            2
                                                                              to increased consumer
                                              T                   T
                                       1e                     e
                                                  1
        c (A Bc)           c(A Bc)                                    .
                                                                              surplus
Nordhaus model of patent length

 Consumer surplus (NPV) as a function of
 patent duration
Nordhaus model of patent length

   Total welfare as a function of patent duration




Higher demand elasticity decreases optimal patent life, higher
technological opportunities leads to shorter optimal patent life
Patent breadth

 Systems nature of knowledge: spillovers are
 often in the form of relevant implications by
 outsiders
 In the spirit of the Nordhaus model: be careful
 not to prevent too many spillovers from
 locking out
 Modeling patent breadth: Horizontal product
 differentiation
Van Dijk / Klemperer model of patent
breadth – Horizontal differentiation
         vp     d if the consumer buys
     U
         0        otherwise
                                   b     p     The indifferent
   vp    |w   0| v   |w   b|   w           .
                                   2     2
                                               consumer
Van Dijk / Klemperer model of patent
breadth
                                                               1
                                            pb         p
                                                                                         Profit function
                                                                   .
                                            2              2

                                                                                         1
                       b        (         1)p                                   b
                                                   0           p                             ,
                                                                                                                 Find optimal price
               p       2                 2                                          1
                                                                        1
                                                                                                         Substitute into indifferent
                        b                                      b                    b
       w                             ,      pw                                                   .
                   2(           1)                                          2(           1)
                                                                                                         consumer
                   b
                                                                            Consumer welfare loss “right”
                                                b2 (        2)2
                       (b           )d                          .
           1
                                                           1)2
                                                 8(
                   w
                        w
                                                       b 2 (4 )
                                                                                    Consumer welfare loss “left”
                               (p          )d                    .
                                                               2
                                                        8 ( 1)
                           0
                                                                                                         1
               b2 (              2)2       b 2 (4 )                         b                    b
                                                                                                             .
                                                                                                                   Total welfare loss
   1   2
                                                                       2(           1)               1
                                1)2         8 ( 1)2
                8(
Van Dijk / Klemperer model of patent
breadth
                              1                    1
                2)2
           b(         b           b (4 )   b
   1   2
                                                       1.
           4(    1)       1       4( 1)        1
                                                            Broad patents are bad,
                                                            because they sacrifice a lot of
                                                            consumer surplus for little
                                                            profits (incentives)



                                                            Narrow patents are bad,
                                                            because they sacrifice a lot of
                                                            consumer surplus for little
                                                            profits (incentives)




 Patent breadth is a tool to vary the ratio of welfare loss to
 incentive (=profit). Policy: pick the best ratio and adjust
 patent length
Patent breadth

 ‘Gold mining’ of patents
  – Genetic technology
  – The importance of applicability of patents
 A trend towards broader patents (pro-patent
 era in the US)
 Software protection: copyright (narrow) vs
 broad patents: EU parliament debate
Prudence in patent breadth

 Systems nature of knowledge: one invention
 depends on another one
 A prudent rule is to leave an important part of
 the relevant implications to outsiders (do not
 award broad patents on all imaginable
 applications of a discovery)
 Genetic research is an important
 contemporary example
The last aspect of patent protection:
Inventive step
 Every patent must have a minimum degree of
 novelty and must not be obvious to “someone
 skilled in the art”
  – But check some of the patents in patent databases
    on the web
  – Would you consider the “one click to buy” system
    at Amazon.com “not obvious to someone skilled in
    the art”?
Van Dijk model of patent height -
Vertical differentiation (quality)
                v m f p if the consumer buys
       U
                0       otherwise

                                                           p2 p1
                                                                            Indifferent consumer
           m f1 p 1 m f2 p2                   m                         ,
                                                           f2 f1

                       p2 p1                       p2 p1
                 x1                  , x2 1                     .
                                                                            Demand functions
                        f2 f1                      f2 f1

                      p2 p1                            p2 p1
                                                                            Profit functions
                 p1              ,           p2 p2                  .
            1                            2
                      f2 f1                                f2 f1

                      p2 2p1                                1
                 1
                                         0        p1          p,
                                                            22
                p1   f2 f1
                  p1 2p2
                                                                             Optimal prices yield a game
                                                   1
       2
            1                        0       p2      (p f f ).,
                                                   2121
      p2             f2 f1
                                                                             (Nash equilibrium)
                        f2 f1                     f2 f 1
                 p1                  , p2     2             .
                             3                         3
Van Dijk model of patent height
Van Dijk model of patent height

                                                         Innovation possibilities function
                                         f 2.
                                R(f )

                      f2 f1                     f2 f1
                                   2                             2
                                                                     Net profit functions
                V1               f1 , V2 4                   f2 ,
                           9                        9

                     V1         1
                                  2 f1          0        f1 0,
                     f1         9
                                                                     Optimal inventive
                      V2       4                         2
                                 2 f2 0             f2     .
                                                                     step
                      f2       9                         9

When h 2/9 patent height does not become restrictive
When h>4/9 the imitator decides not to enter the market
When 2/9 < h < 4/9 the first-best choice of the imitating firm
is ruled out
Strategic patents

 Patents are intended as legal protection from
 imitation
 The Yale survey: only one third of innovations
 is protected by a patent
 Why not the other two thirds?
      novelty requirements
      secrecy better alternative
      afraid of inventing around
 Can patents serve a different function than
 just protection?
Patent strategies – Granstrand
Strategic patents

 Costs of litigation are an important aspect of
 strategic patenting
 Strategic patenting puts more emphasis on
 the non-competitive aspects of patents, and
 hence on the inefficiencies rather than the
 welfare-creating effects

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The economics of patents: How economic theory can help design patent systems

  • 1. The economics of patents Merit course – 2005 Motivation: to see “how patents work” and how economic theory can help to design them the role of patents patent length Other patent dimensions
  • 2. IBM vs Apple Winners & losers? 1000 45 40 Microsoft 35 100 30 25 Intel 10 20 Compaq 15 Apple 10 1 5 IBM 0 0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 Bron: Harvard Business School Apple case studies 1992 & 1998 Bron: Worldscope database
  • 3. Technology Spillovers and incentives The problem that spillovers create is an incentive problem This may be solved by the award of a patent: the legal monopoly to be the only user of an invention Monopolies make an economist alert! Technology spillovers are not totally bad: they are a source of welfare – Example: the history of the personal computer
  • 4. The role of patents The three Ps: – Patronage (e.g., universities) – Procurement (e.g., defense or public sector research institutes) – Patents Patents and spillovers: publication of patented inventions
  • 5. Designing patents Can we design a patent that strikes the balance between incentive and welfare generation? Patent length, breadth, width and height
  • 6. Patents and spillovers – How can patents leave spillovers? Patentable and non-patentable parts of knowledge Standing on the shoulders of giants Rent spillovers
  • 7. Nordhaus model of patent length Minor and drastic innovations
  • 8. Nordhaus model of patent length Longer patents create a longer profit stream for the inventor, but at a decreasing rate (profits far away in the future are worth less)
  • 9. Nordhaus model of patent length Maximum profit for a monopolist minor (A Bc) (c c), qx A Value of the consumer surplus S cd. B 0
  • 10. Nordhaus model of patent length Invention possibilities function cc R, c T NPV of net profits minor V e d R. 0 T T 1e V c R (A Bc)e d R c R (A Bc) R. 0 T V 1e (1 ) cR (A Bc) 10 R Optimal R&D 1 T 1e expenditures 1 R c(A Bc) . T T 1e 1e 1 V c c(A Bc) (A Bc) Resulting NPV of 1 profits T 1e 1 c(A Bc) .
  • 11. Nordhaus model of patent length NPV of profits for varying patent duration
  • 12. Nordhaus model of patent length Longer patents create less consumer welfare (they leave a shorter period for consumers to benefit from all the advantages of the patent)
  • 13. Nordhaus model of patent length Total welfare resulting T e WV e d V . from innovation T q x(c) A 1 Consumer surplus after B(c c)2, cd B 2 patent runs out q x(c) 2 Part of total welfare due T T T e 12 1e e 2 1 Bc c(A Bc) 2 to increased consumer T T 1e e 1 c (A Bc) c(A Bc) . surplus
  • 14. Nordhaus model of patent length Consumer surplus (NPV) as a function of patent duration
  • 15. Nordhaus model of patent length Total welfare as a function of patent duration Higher demand elasticity decreases optimal patent life, higher technological opportunities leads to shorter optimal patent life
  • 16. Patent breadth Systems nature of knowledge: spillovers are often in the form of relevant implications by outsiders In the spirit of the Nordhaus model: be careful not to prevent too many spillovers from locking out Modeling patent breadth: Horizontal product differentiation
  • 17. Van Dijk / Klemperer model of patent breadth – Horizontal differentiation vp d if the consumer buys U 0 otherwise b p The indifferent vp |w 0| v |w b| w . 2 2 consumer
  • 18. Van Dijk / Klemperer model of patent breadth 1 pb p Profit function . 2 2 1 b ( 1)p b 0 p , Find optimal price p 2 2 1 1 Substitute into indifferent b b b w , pw . 2( 1) 2( 1) consumer b Consumer welfare loss “right” b2 ( 2)2 (b )d . 1 1)2 8( w w b 2 (4 ) Consumer welfare loss “left” (p )d . 2 8 ( 1) 0 1 b2 ( 2)2 b 2 (4 ) b b . Total welfare loss 1 2 2( 1) 1 1)2 8 ( 1)2 8(
  • 19. Van Dijk / Klemperer model of patent breadth 1 1 2)2 b( b b (4 ) b 1 2 1. 4( 1) 1 4( 1) 1 Broad patents are bad, because they sacrifice a lot of consumer surplus for little profits (incentives) Narrow patents are bad, because they sacrifice a lot of consumer surplus for little profits (incentives) Patent breadth is a tool to vary the ratio of welfare loss to incentive (=profit). Policy: pick the best ratio and adjust patent length
  • 20. Patent breadth ‘Gold mining’ of patents – Genetic technology – The importance of applicability of patents A trend towards broader patents (pro-patent era in the US) Software protection: copyright (narrow) vs broad patents: EU parliament debate
  • 21. Prudence in patent breadth Systems nature of knowledge: one invention depends on another one A prudent rule is to leave an important part of the relevant implications to outsiders (do not award broad patents on all imaginable applications of a discovery) Genetic research is an important contemporary example
  • 22. The last aspect of patent protection: Inventive step Every patent must have a minimum degree of novelty and must not be obvious to “someone skilled in the art” – But check some of the patents in patent databases on the web – Would you consider the “one click to buy” system at Amazon.com “not obvious to someone skilled in the art”?
  • 23. Van Dijk model of patent height - Vertical differentiation (quality) v m f p if the consumer buys U 0 otherwise p2 p1 Indifferent consumer m f1 p 1 m f2 p2 m , f2 f1 p2 p1 p2 p1 x1 , x2 1 . Demand functions f2 f1 f2 f1 p2 p1 p2 p1 Profit functions p1 , p2 p2 . 1 2 f2 f1 f2 f1 p2 2p1 1 1 0 p1 p, 22 p1 f2 f1 p1 2p2 Optimal prices yield a game 1 2 1 0 p2 (p f f )., 2121 p2 f2 f1 (Nash equilibrium) f2 f1 f2 f 1 p1 , p2 2 . 3 3
  • 24. Van Dijk model of patent height
  • 25. Van Dijk model of patent height Innovation possibilities function f 2. R(f ) f2 f1 f2 f1 2 2 Net profit functions V1 f1 , V2 4 f2 , 9 9 V1 1 2 f1 0 f1 0, f1 9 Optimal inventive V2 4 2 2 f2 0 f2 . step f2 9 9 When h 2/9 patent height does not become restrictive When h>4/9 the imitator decides not to enter the market When 2/9 < h < 4/9 the first-best choice of the imitating firm is ruled out
  • 26. Strategic patents Patents are intended as legal protection from imitation The Yale survey: only one third of innovations is protected by a patent Why not the other two thirds? novelty requirements secrecy better alternative afraid of inventing around Can patents serve a different function than just protection?
  • 28. Strategic patents Costs of litigation are an important aspect of strategic patenting Strategic patenting puts more emphasis on the non-competitive aspects of patents, and hence on the inefficiencies rather than the welfare-creating effects