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Resources available for HIV
in low and middle income countries, 1986-2010
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New Investment Framework

  CRITICAL                       BASIC PROGRAMME ACTIVITIES                                    OBJECTIVES
  ENABLERS

  Social enablers                  Key                    Children &
                                   populations            mothers
  •  Political commitment &
                                                                                                Stopping new
     advocacy
  •  Laws, policies &                                                                             infections
     practices
  •  Community mobilization      Behaviour
  •  Stigma reduction            change                  Condoms
  •  Mass media
  •  Local responses, to
     change risk
     environment

  Programme enablers                                                                               Keeping
  •  Community-centered                                                                          people alive
     design & delivery
  •  Programme
     communication                  Care &                 Male
  •  Management & incentives        treatment              circumcision
  •  Production & distribution
  •  Research & innovation

 SYNERGIES WITH DEVELOPMENT SECTORS
 Social protection; Education; Legal Reform; Gender equality; Poverty reduction; Gender-based violence;
 Health systems (incl. treatment of STIs, blood safety); Community systems; Employer practices.
Three investment scenarios
Impact on the epidemic
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Returns on investment of new
investment framework (2011-2020)


                                 Outcomes
  Total infections averted    More than 12 million

  Infant infections averted            1.9 million

  Deaths averted                       7.4 million

  Life years gained                   29.4 million
New investment framework: the tipping point




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New infections, behaviour change and treatment
coverage in Botswana


                         Behaviour change




    New infections and
    treatment coverage
Cost and economic returns
2011 to 2020

                                Cost/Returns
  Total additional investment
                                    US$46.5 Billion
  (over 10 years)
  Future treatment need
                                     US$40 Billion
  averted
                                           US$1,060
  Life years gained
                                per life year gained
Investment framework projections for new HIV
infections

   Optimized investment will lead to rapid declines in new HIV infections in many countries
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Resources available for HIV
in low and middle income countries, globally, 2002-2010
Percentage of care and treatment
expenditure from international sources
Few donors meet the development assistance targets


                 Norway                                            1.10%
            Luxembourg                                             1.09%
                 Sweden                                        0.97%
                Denmark                                      0.90%
             Netherlands                                  0.81%
                 Belgium                          0.64%
         United Kingdom                        0.56%
                  Finland                     0.55%
                  Ireland                    0.53%
                  France                    0.50%
                    Spain                0.43%
             Switzerland                0.41%             Net development assistance
               Germany                 0.38%
                 Canada              0.33%                in 2001 as % of gross
                  Austria
                Australia
                                    0.32%
                                    0.32%
                                                          national income
                Portugal           0.29%
           New Zealand            0.26%
           United States        0.21%
                   Japan        0.20%
                  Greece       0.17%
                     Italy    0.15%
                   Korea     0.12%
                        0%      0.3%    0.5% 0.7%              1% 1.2%
Measuring national commitment to AIDS:
the Domestic Investment Priority Index




SOURCE: UNAIDS expenditure data; WHO data on the burden disease; and economic data from the International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook database
Economic growth in Africa, 1970–2010
Third-fastest growing region in the World
Three options for increasing domestic public HIV
investment in Africa
Projected resource needs (in USD billion)
Assumed increases of domestic contributions by BRICS and others
within ability to pay (economic growth and towards Abudja targets)




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4 community-mobilization-and-the-if
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3 investment-framework-summary-unaids-issues-brief
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2 supplementary-webappendix-if-lancet-paper
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13 tfm request-info_note_en1
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Investment framwork tanzania_cs-powerpoint

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  • 2. Resources available for HIV in low and middle income countries, 1986-2010
  • 3. We have done a lot… !  >#3,$?$<$#)$<"(?-8$"93".0"@&7" 3,$'$#A.#B"),$-)*$#)B"?-,$"-#<" (933.,)" !  4$?8;#$";#",-)$".0"#$%"@&7" ;#0$?A.#(";#"*-#:"?.9#),;$(" !  6.,$")1-#"CDC"*;88;.#"3$.38$".#" !2E" !  6;88;.#(".0".,31-#(",$?$;';#F"=-(;?" $<9?-A.#B"1$-8)1B"(.?;-8"3,.)$?A.#"
  • 4. But we can do better 5?-8$"93")."<-)$"F9;<$<"=:"-" G?.**.<;):"-33,.-?1H" " !  >#(:()$*-A?"3,;.,;A(-A.#"-#<" ;#'$()*$#)"%;)1"8;*;)$<"=-(;(";#" ?.9#),:"$3;<$*;.8.F:"-#<"?.#)$I)" !  2$(.9,?$("(3,$-<")1;#8:"-?,.((" *-#:"3-,-88$8";#)$,'$#A.#(" !  +.?9(".#"<;(?,$)$";#)$,'$#A.#(" ,-)1$,")1-#".'$,-88",$(98)("8$-<;#F" )."-"0,-F*$#)$<",$(3.#($"
  • 5. New Investment Framework CRITICAL BASIC PROGRAMME ACTIVITIES OBJECTIVES ENABLERS Social enablers Key Children & populations mothers •  Political commitment & Stopping new advocacy •  Laws, policies & infections practices •  Community mobilization Behaviour •  Stigma reduction change Condoms •  Mass media •  Local responses, to change risk environment Programme enablers Keeping •  Community-centered people alive design & delivery •  Programme communication Care & Male •  Management & incentives treatment circumcision •  Production & distribution •  Research & innovation SYNERGIES WITH DEVELOPMENT SECTORS Social protection; Education; Legal Reform; Gender equality; Poverty reduction; Gender-based violence; Health systems (incl. treatment of STIs, blood safety); Community systems; Employer practices.
  • 6. Three investment scenarios Impact on the epidemic %" %! $" >54"JK;88;.#(L" $! K9(;#$(("-("9(9-8" #" M"NDO" R$%"@&7"&#0$?A.#(" M"NDP" J*;88;.#(L" #! M"QDO" " M"QDP" M"PDO" ! M"P" $!## $!#$ $!#% $!#& $!#" $!#' $!#( $!#) $!#* $!$!
  • 7. Three investment scenarios Impact on the epidemic %" %! $" >54"JK;88;.#(L" $! &#'$()*$#)"0,-*$%.,/" K9(;#$(("-("9(9-8" #" M"NDO" R$%"@&7"&#0$?A.#(" M"NDP" J*;88;.#(L" #! M"QDO" " M"QDP" M"PDO" ! M"P" $!## $!#$ $!#% $!#& $!#" $!#' $!#( $!#) $!#* $!$!
  • 8. Three investment scenarios Impact on the epidemic %" 2-3;<"(?-8$"93" 3,$';.9("3,.S$?A.#(" %! $" >54"JK;88;.#(L" $! &#'$()*$#)"0,-*$%.,/" K9(;#$(("-("9(9-8" #" M"NDO" R$%"@&7"&#0$?A.#(" M"NDP" J*;88;.#(L" #! M"QDO" " M"QDP" M"PDO" ! M"P" $!## $!#$ $!#% $!#& $!#" $!#' $!#( $!#) $!#* $!$!
  • 9. E1$"#$%";#'$()*$#)"0,-*$%.,/" +.?9(".#"%1-)"*-/$("-"<;T$,$#?$" >54"JK;88;.#(L" $" $! 5:#$,F;$(" #" V,;A?-8"W#-=8$,(" #! " K-(;?"U,.F,-**$" !?A';A$(" ! $!## $!#$ $!#% $!#& $!#" $!#' $!#( $!#) $!#* $!$!
  • 10. ART coverage in 2015 by CD4 count #!!" CD4 350 +!" *!" 15 million )!" (!" V.'$,-F$ '!" &!" %!" T4P 13.1 million (health) $!" #!" !" ,'!! %'!-&++ $'!-%&+ $!!-$&+ #!!-#++ '!-++ .'! V4X"V.9#)"J?$88(Y*8L
  • 11. Returns on investment of new investment framework (2011-2020) Outcomes Total infections averted More than 12 million Infant infections averted 1.9 million Deaths averted 7.4 million Life years gained 29.4 million
  • 12. New investment framework: the tipping point R$%8:"$8;F;=8$"0.,"),$-)*$#)" R$%8:";#0$?)$<"
  • 13. New infections, behaviour change and treatment coverage in Botswana Behaviour change New infections and treatment coverage
  • 14. Cost and economic returns 2011 to 2020 Cost/Returns Total additional investment US$46.5 Billion (over 10 years) Future treatment need US$40 Billion averted US$1,060 Life years gained per life year gained
  • 15. Investment framework projections for new HIV infections Optimized investment will lead to rapid declines in new HIV infections in many countries
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  • 17. V.**9#;):"*.=;8;Z-A.#["*-/$("(?-8$"93"3.((;=8$"" •  R9*=$,".0"3$.38$")$()$<")1,.9F1"?.**9#;):" *.=;8;Z-A.#"" /$!#!M/&(/<>CC>;3/NLOPQ/// /$!#'M/#!+/<>CC>;3// / •  5$,';?$"<$8;'$,:"?.()("J),$-)*$#)L"" /$!#!M/0#)+/A76/@786/// /$!$!M/0#$'/A76/@786/N0#)/>3/C;F/>35;<7/5;=3?6>79Q// / •  4,;';#F"?.()("<.%#["0$%$,".9)3-A$#)"';(;)(B" ?.**9#;):"(933.,)"($,';?$"*.<-8;A$(" •  K$$,"@$-8)1"]9)?.*$("
  • 18. V.**9#;):"*.=;8;Z-A.#["" ;#?,$-($("$T$?A'$#$((" •  O;<<=3>?@/<;2>C>98E;3/>3567897:/K4L/?79E3H/68?79/D;=6- D;C:/>3/P83R83>8I/S><282F7I/T;=?J/UD6>58/83:/PJ8>C83:1/ // •  O;39>9?73?/5;3:;</=97/>3/A89?/#$/<;3?J9/&/E<79/J>HJ76/>3/ 5;<<=3>E79/F>?J/H;;:/5;<<=3>?@/73H8H7<73?/NV73@8Q// // •  K@A;?J7E58C/5>65=<5>9>;3/<;:7C/VF8S=C=-W8?8C/M// –  5;67/>3?76B73E;3M//$&!I!!!/>3D75E;39/8B76?7:/;B76/?73/@7869/ –  F>?J/7382C769M/&$!I!!!/>3D75E;39/8B76?7:I/F>?J/<;:79?/ <86H>38C/>3567897/>3/5;9?9/ /
  • 20. E-#Z-#;-["-##9-8"#$%"@&7";#0$?A.#(B"NPQQMNPNP" #(!!!!/ #&!!!!/ K-($8;#$"J=9(;#$(("-("9(9-8L" #$!!!!/ #!!!!!/ *!!!!/ (!!!!/ &#'$()*$#)"+,-*$%.,/" &!!!!/ $!!!!/ !/ $!##/ $!#$/ $!#%/ $!#&/ $!#'/ $!#(/ $!#)/ $!#*/ $!#+/ $!$!/
  • 21. E-#Z-#;-["-##9-8"!&45"<$-)1(B"NPQQMNPNP" #&!!!!/ K-($8;#$"J=9(;#$(("-("9(9-8L" #$!!!!/ #!!!!!/ *!!!!/ (!!!!/ &!!!!/ &#'$()*$#)"+,-*$%.,/" $!!!!/ !/ $!##/$!#$/$!#%/$!#&/$!#'/$!#(/$!#)/$!#*/$!#+/$!$!/
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24. Resources available for HIV in low and middle income countries, globally, 2002-2010
  • 25. Percentage of care and treatment expenditure from international sources
  • 26. Few donors meet the development assistance targets Norway 1.10% Luxembourg 1.09% Sweden 0.97% Denmark 0.90% Netherlands 0.81% Belgium 0.64% United Kingdom 0.56% Finland 0.55% Ireland 0.53% France 0.50% Spain 0.43% Switzerland 0.41% Net development assistance Germany 0.38% Canada 0.33% in 2001 as % of gross Austria Australia 0.32% 0.32% national income Portugal 0.29% New Zealand 0.26% United States 0.21% Japan 0.20% Greece 0.17% Italy 0.15% Korea 0.12% 0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 1% 1.2%
  • 27. Measuring national commitment to AIDS: the Domestic Investment Priority Index SOURCE: UNAIDS expenditure data; WHO data on the burden disease; and economic data from the International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook database
  • 28. Economic growth in Africa, 1970–2010 Third-fastest growing region in the World
  • 29. Three options for increasing domestic public HIV investment in Africa
  • 30. Projected resource needs (in USD billion) Assumed increases of domestic contributions by BRICS and others within ability to pay (economic growth and towards Abudja targets) Development Assistance 8.0 10.7 9.4 12.7 11.8 13.6 13.5 13.0 11.9 11.3 Domestic financing 9.7 LI LMI UMI XY4OT/
  • 31. T;<7/Z=79E;39 / •  [J8?/867/?J7/9?68?7H>5/;A73>3H9/D;6/8/37F/ :>8C;H=7/86;=3:/75>735@]/ •  U67/?J767/;2B>;=9/<>9-<8?5J79/27?F773/?J7/ 7A>:7<>5/83:/?J7/679A;397]/ •  [J>5J/867/?J7/D85?;69/?J8?/<8G7/>?/:>5=C?/?;/ 958C7/=A/289>5/A6;H68<<7/5;<A;373?9]// •  K;F/5;=C:/A86?3769/J7CA/>3/8AAC>58E;3/;D/?J7/ 4^/8AA6;85J/
  • 32. The beginning of the end of AIDS is in our hands
  • 33.
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