Forecasting CALIFORNIA’S Rn WORKFORCE
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Forecasts of the Registered Nurse Workforce in California (2001, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011)
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Forecasting CALIFORNIA’S Rn WORKFORCE
- 1. Joanne Spetz, Timothy Bates, Renae Waneka, Dennis Keane, Lela Chu, Jessica Lin RN Surveys Policies & Legislation • 2002 – Governor Gray Davis’s Forecasts of the 2001 Forecast Nurse Workforce Initiative (NWI) to address the shortage Recommendations to expand of nurses in California RN Surveys that evaluate change and RN satisfaction Biennial stratified random sample including: Registered Nurse Workforce and redefine nursing profession, including: • 2005 – Gov. Schwarzenegger’s • Demographics Nurse Education Initiative • Salary in California • Increase funding for new RN education programs and continues education expansion • Job satisfaction expanding existing programs • Private grants to Schools • Future plans (2001, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011) • HRSA Grants Schools Surveys • Increased in state funding to community colleges 2011 Forecast Annual survey of CA nursing programs: Recent findings and trends: Projected Shortage of Registered Nurses (FTEs) in California • Graduates • Nursing school enrollments 400,000 • Funding have more than doubled in the 350,000 • Attrition and success of students 300,000 past decade 250,000 • Fewer RNs retiring due to the 200,000 economic recession Employer Surveys 150,000 • Less demand for newly- 100,000 graduated RNs 50,000 Public Webpage • Surplus not expected to - 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Supply Forecast Hours-per-patient-day-based Demand Forecast Budgeted Position-based Demand Forecast continue as nurses retire • The Affordable Care Act (ACA) will insure 30 million Annual survey of CA nurse employers: additional Americans • Current employment numbers • Vacancies • Turnover • New graduate hiring Funders Partners • Center for the Health Professions (CHP), UC San Francisco • California Board of Registered Nursing (BRN) • Hospital Association of Southern California (HASC) • Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation • California Institute for Nursing & Health Care (CINHC)