1. RIMAROCC: Risk Management for Roads in a Changing Climate © EGIS - ERIC BENARD Bo Lind SGI Transportforum Linköping 14 januari 2010 RIMAROCC

3. Håkan Nordlander [email_address] Reference group of stakeholders

5. The RIMAROCC wp:s WP2: Research Think Tank and necessary co - ordinations WP 3:Climate scenarios and consequences on risk approach WP 4: Risk analysis based decision methods for road authorities WP 5: Risk Management options; mitigation and/or emergency plans WP1: Listening process to identify priority needs of clients/users Focusing on the overall approach – identification , scoring , consequences , possible options Focusing on comparison between options - Structural level - Section level - Network level - Regional level WP 6: Dissimination – case studies WP2: Research Think Tank and necessary co - ordinations WP 3:Climate scenarios and consequences on risk approach WP 4: Risk analysis based decision methods for road authorities WP 5: Risk Management options; mitigation and/or emergency plans WP1: Listening process to identify priority needs of clients/users Focusing on the overall approach – identification , scoring , consequences , possible options Focusing on comparison between options - Structural level - Section level - Network level - Regional level WP 6: Dissimination – case studies

7. FUNCTIONS Assess the risks F11. Define climate related hazards F12. Identify risk factors F13. Define level of acceptable risk . . F17. Manage the risks F21. Define structural solutions for roads F22. Framework for to calculate costs F23. Framework to prioritize mitigation measures . . F39. DESIGN OBJECTIVES D1. Compatible with existing methods D2. Able to cope with climate change uncertainty D3. Consider specificities of European countries D4. Both new road design and maintenance . . D14. Functions and Design objectives

14. The Risk Analysis/Management Approach Communication and gathering of information 7.1 Regular monitoring and review 7.2 Re-plan in case of new data or delay in implementation 7.3 Capitalization of return of experience on both climatic events and progress of implementation 7. Monitor, re-plan and capitalize 6.1 Develop action plan at each level of responsibility 6.2 implement adaptation action plans 6. Implementation of action plans 5.1 Identify options 5.2 Appraise options 5.3 Negotiate with funding agencies 5.4 Elaborate action plan 5. Risk mitigation 4.1 Evaluate quantitative aspects with appropriate analysis (CBA or others) 4.2 Compare climate risk to other kinds of risks 4.3 Determine which risks are acceptable 4. Risk evaluation 3.1 Risk analysis : qualitative aspects 3.2 Establish risk scenarios 3.3 Determine risk impact 3.4 Evaluate occurrences 3. Risk analysis 2.1 Identify risk factors 2.2 Identify vulnerabilities 2.3 Identify possible consequences 2. Risk identification 1.1 Establish general context 1.2 Establish appropriate context for particular application 1.3 Establish risk criteria and indicators adapted for each particular application (structure, section, network, territory) 1. Context analysis Sub-steps Key steps

15. 1. Context analysis 1.3 Establish risk criteria and indicators adapted for each particular level 1.2 Establish appropriate context for particular level ” Time and Resources” ” Agency Board” ” Risk Manager” 1.1 Establish general context 1. Context analysis Specific. Particip. Coordin. Authorities in charge Sub steps Key steps Feedback loop 3. Risk analysis 4. Risk evaluation 5. Risk mitigation 6. Implemen-tation of action plans 2. Risk identification 7. Monitoring, review, capitali-zation 1. Context analysis Communication

16. 1.3 Establish risk criteria and indicators adapted for each particular level number of month per year H2 Possible period of occurrence x times per year H1 Frequency of key climate conditions / past extreme events Indicator unit Criteria to assess the hazard ???? C6 Impact on the environment ???? C5 Loss of confidence / image / prestige / political consequences Euro’s C4 Indirect costs % of normal capacity % more traveling time number of days C3 Unavailability of the road Euro’s C2 Direct costs; costs for reconstruction Number of death/injured/rescued C1 Loss of safety of the road Criteria to assess the consequences age of design standard (year) last big maintenance (year) S4 Used design standards and type of maintenance ???? S3 Amount of knowledge of a hazard with related consequences ???? S2 Amount and type of information to road users hours / days S1 Speed of occurrence / forecast time Criteria to assess the vulnerability

17. The Rimarocc Method Feedback loop 3. Risk analysis 4. Risk evaluation 5. Risk mitigation 6. Implemen-tation of action plans 2. Risk identification 7. Monitoring, review, capitali-zation 1. Context analysis Communication 2.1 Identify risk factors 2.2 Identify vulnerabilities 2.3 Identify possible consequences 2. Risk identification

25. 3. Risk analysis 3.1 Risk analysis : qualitative aspects 3.2 Establish risk scenarios 3.3 Determine risk impact 3.4 Evaluate occurrences Feedback loop 3. Risk analysis 4. Risk evaluation 5. Risk mitigation 6. Implemen-tation of action plans 2. Risk identification 7. Monitoring, review, capitali-zation 1. Context analysis Communication 3 1,5 1 1 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 Risk C 2,4 1,7 1 1 2 2 2 2 1,4 2 1 Risk B 5 2,5 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 Risk A tot C6 C5 C4 C3 C2 C1 tot H2 H1 Risk consequence probability Risk description Risk C Risk B Risk A tot S4 S3 S2 S1 Vulnerability (Sensitivity) risk Risk description

26. 4.1 Evaluate quantitative aspects with appropriate analysis (CBA or others) 4.2 Compare climate risk to other kinds of risks 4.3 Determine which risks are acceptable Feedback loop 3. Risk analysis 4. Risk evaluation 5. Risk mitigation 6. Implemen-tation of action plans 2. Risk identification 7. Monitoring, review, capitali-zation 1. Context analysis Communication

30. Feedback loop 3. Risk analysis 4. Risk evaluation 5. Risk mitigation 6. Implemen-tation of action plans 2. Risk identification 7. Monitoring, review, capitali-zation 1. Context analysis Communication Threshold capacity: (also prevention capacity) Coping capacity: (also damage reduction capacity) Recovery capacity: (e.g. reconstruction, emergency funds) Adaptive capacity: (e.g. flexibility to change construction ower time). Identify possible adaptation measures for the non acceptable risks.