Session 27 Bo Lind

RIMAROCC

Guidebok för riskhantering av
vägar i ett föränderligt klimat:
RIMAROCC

Bo Lind:
Statens Geotekniska Institut

Transportforum 12 januari 2011

RIMAROCC

Syftet med RIMAROCC

Att utveckla en gemensam metodik för riskanalys och
riskhantering av vägar med hänsyn till ett förändrat
klimat I Europa

Partners
– SGI: Swedish Geotechnical Institute (Sweden)
– Egis: Engineering, Project Development, and motorway
Infrastructure Operations (France)
– Deltares: Research and Engineering in Water, Soil and
Infrastructure (Netherlands)
– NGI: Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (Norway)


RIMAROCC

Programme Leader
– Håkan Nordlander, SRA, SE

Steering Group
• Åsa Lindgren, SRA, SE, (contact person)
• Geoff Richards, (former) Highways Agency,
UK
• Alberto Compte, Eva Ruiz-Ayúcar
Berlinches, CEDEX, ES


RIMAROCC

The RIMAROCC METHOD
– Består av sju steg
– Följer i stort ISO 31000 (FORMALISERAD/TRANSPARENT)
– Kompatibel och kan fungera tillsammans med existerande
metoder
– För riskhantering i alla skalor (structure, section, network,
territory).

Communication
6.
7.
Impl
Monit
eme
1. oring
3. 4. 5. n-
Cont 2. Risk revie
Risk Risk Risk tatio
ext identific w,
analy evalu mitig n of
analy ation capit
sis ation ation actio
sis ali-
n Feedback
zatio
plan loop
n
s


RIMAROCC

How to use the RIMAROCC Method

1. Guidebook to the RIMAROCC Method
2. Case study Network level, France
3. Case study Network level, The Netherlands
4. Case study Section level, Noeway
5. Case study Structure level, Sweden
6. Technical background report


RIMAROCC

Critical climate parameters
Extreme Draught Extreme
rainfall events Wind speed
Critical climate
Major risks to road infrastructure
variablesSeasonal and Snowfall Fog days
- weighted according to their importance for the road sector
annual average
(1; useful to 4; of primary importance)
Extreme rainfall  Flooding of roadways
rainfall  Road erosion, landslides and mudslides that damage
- events level of roads Maxis marked, from significant increase,
the amount
Sea change Thaw (cycles)
(heavyto significant decrease --
++,
rise  Overloading of drainage systems, causing erosion
temperature
showers and and flooding
and consecutive
 Traffic hindrance and safety
long rain
periods) hot days Frost


RIMAROCC

A Guidebook

Part 1- Basis for climate and
risk management

Part 2 - Method and Guidance

part 3 - Case studies


RIMAROCC

RIMAROCC-metodiken består av sju steg, med ett antal
del-steg. Stegen presenteras på ett enhetligt sätt – en
sammanfattande presentation av syftet med momentet
samt en lista på del-steg.
Del-stegen är utformade på följande sätt:

a) Objectives – describing the objectives of the sub-step
b) Output – describing the outcome of the sub-step
c) Method – presenting the recommended methods or
procedures
d) Data collection – describing what data is needed to perform
the sub-step and how to obtain it.
e) Examples – each sub-step is provided with an example to
improve the readability. More examples can be found in the
case studies.


RIMAROCC

Step 1 – CONTEXT ANALYSIS

1. Objectives
- SYFTE
- ORGANISATION och OMGIVANDE FÖRUTSÄTTNINGAR
- DEFINIERA KRITERIER FÖR RISKANALYSEN

2. Sub-steps
Engångsarbete
•Establish a general context (study area, organisation etc)
•Establish a specific context for a particular scale of analysis (stakeholders
etc)
•Establish risk criteria and indicators adapted to each particular scale
of analysis

Arbetsmetod; skrivbord – fält – expertbedömning, etc


RIMAROCC
RIMAROCC

Example: the
specific context for
a network scale
analysis, France


RIMAROCC

Example: risk criteria and indicators - section
scale analysis, Norway
Risk criteria and indicators on the section scale are presented in three tables;
a) criteria for categorising exposure (exempel nedan)
b) criteria for assessing vulnerability (e.g. design standards, forecast time)
c) criteria for assessing consequences (persons, property etc.)

Criteria for assessing exposure Low (1) Medium (2) High (3) Very high (4)
E1:Frequency of key climate
Klimathändelsen <0.001/yr 0.001/yr- 0.01/yr- > 0.1/yr
conditions/past extreme events 0.01/yr 0.1/yr
Exponeringstid
E2: Exposure duration Hours Days Weeks Months
E3: Exposed area
Exponeringsområde Small area Large area
E4: Exposed objects/people Small Large
Exponerade personer number number


RIMAROCC

Step 2 – RISK IDENTIFICATION

1.Objectives
- lista tänkbara oönskade händelser
2. Sub-steps
Baseras på riskdefinition i tre delar

– Identify threats ex. KLIMATFAKTORER
– Identify vulnerabilities TILLGÅNGAR/FUNKTIONER
– Identify possible consequences DIREKTA el
INDIREKTA


RIMAROCC

Example of vulnerabilities analysed on a network scale,
France
Section Length Age / Traffic Exposure to climate Sensitive
in km design (veh./ events elements in
standards day) Current With CC the
situation (estimates) infrastructure
*
AX-1 10-15 < 1960 60,000 Overflow + 10 % Undersized
– for Q10 additional drainage
70,000 flow system
AX-4 25-30 1960- 40,000 Extreme +5% Bridge
1970 – wind showing
50,000 speed > structural
120 km/h defects
AY-1 20-25 1980- 20,000 Average +5%
1990 - seasonal Hydromorphic
30,000 rainfall: grounds
500 mm
AY-2 20-25 1980- 20,000 Average -5%
1990 – number Pavement
30,000 of frost cracks
days: 20


RIMAROCC

Step 3 – RISK ANALYSIS

1. Objectives
- förståelse av riskerna och för vilka risker som behöver åtgärdas
2. Sub-steps
• Establish risk chronology and scenarios HÄNDELSEUTVECKLING
• Determine the impact of risk SCENARIER - KONSEKVENSER
• Evaluate occurrences SANNOLIKHET FÖR HÄNDELSE
• Provide a risk overview POÄNGSATT RISKTABELL


RIMAROCC

Example of risk overview at the
structure scale, Sweden

Risk scenario Probability Exposure Sensitivity Consequences

People/Object
for risk

Information

Knowledge
scenario

Intangible
Standard

Financial
Property
Duration

Persons

Environ.
(year-1)

Speed
Area
E1 E2 E3 S1 S2 S3 S4 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
R1: Extreme 0,08 2 2 2 4 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 1
rain + flooding
R2: Extreme 0,02 2 2 2 4 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 1
rain + collapse
R3: Spring flood 0,08 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 1 1 1
+ flooding
R4: Spring flood 0,02 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 1
+ collapse


RIMAROCC

Step 4 – RISK EVALUATION

1. Objectives
- jämföra och prioritera mellan olika risker

2. Sub-steps
• Risk prioritisation
• Compare climate risk to other kinds of risk
• Determine which risks are acceptable


RIMAROCC

Example of risk prioritisation at the structure scale, Sweden
Risk matrix with probability and weighted consequences indicated for four risk scenarios.
Probability

Once in:

4

R1
10 years

R3
Increases with climate change
3
R2

R4
100 years Decreases with climate change

2
No change expected

1000 years

1

1 2 3 4 Consequence
Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic


RIMAROCC

Step 5 – RISK MITIGATION

1. Objectives
- beskriva och prioritera mellan olika åtgärdsalternativ

2. Sub-steps
• Identify options ÅTGÄRDSALTERNATIV
• Appraise options PRIORITERA MELLAN ÅTGÄRDER
• Negotiation with funding agencies SÄKERSTÄLL ATT
FÖRESLAGNA ÅTGÄRDER KAN IMPLEMENTERAS
• Present an action plan UTARBETA ÅTGÄRDSPLAN


RIMAROCC

Example of mitigation option appraisal on a section/network scale
The strategy sheet example below is based on assumptions but gives a good insight into how the adaptation
tipping point in a strategy analysis sheet can be used to choose a strategy, as a combination of several related
measures. The x-axis is the time scale, and the blue arrows show the timeframe for which each measure is effective.
The measure’s tipping point is where the blue arrow ends. At present, measures I, V, VI, VII and VIII are applicable.
Measures III and IV will only become effective after climate change has already developed. The green arrows show
the possibilities of changing from the current measure to another measure. The effects of each measure on the
consequence criteria are scored as described above, as are the implementation costs.


RIMAROCC

Step 6 – IMPLEMENTATION
OF ACTION PLAN
1. Objectives
- detaljerad åtgärdsplan
- etablera samverkan mellan berörda aktörer

2. Sub-steps
• Develop an action plan on each level of responsibility
• Implement an adaptation action plan
ÅTGÄRDER GENOMFÖRS


RIMAROCC

Step 7 – MONITORING,
REVIEW & CAPITALISATION
1. Objectives
- en lärprocess, utvärdera arbetet och organisationen.
Kan något bli bättre?

2. Sub-steps
• Regular monitoring and review
• Re-plan in case of new data or a delay in implementation
• Capitalisation of return of experience on both climatic events and progress of
implementation


RIMAROCC

Tack!

bo.lind@swedgeo.se

Date

Session 27 Bo Lind

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