1. Homeland Security in 2011: A reflection of 10 years since 9/11 Welcome to the Edward V. Badolato Distinguished Speaker Series
2. Keeping U.S. Intelligence Effective: The Need for a Revolution in Intelligence Affairs William J. Lahneman Assistant Professor Department of Political Science
3. Intelligence & 9/11 9/11 perceived as an intelligence failure Many studies, government reports, books, and articles published concerning the need for intelligence reform “Connecting the dots” Many reform initiatives have not produced the desired results
4. My research experience 2000-2005: National Intelligence Council (NIC) Project 2003-2004: Future of the Internet Project 2005: Landscapes Project 2005-2006: Future of Intelligence Analysis Project 2005-2010: IC Centers of Academic Excellence Ideal vantage point for thinking about the kinds of problems facing the U.S. intelligence enterprise Heard the term “RIA” mentioned during a meeting
6. Revolutions Periodically occur in all areas of human endeavor when conditions change so significantly that traditional methods of doing business are rendered obsolete Examples Information Revolution The Revolution in Military Affairs Biotechnical Revolution An Islamist Revolution? Revolutions are important! New winners and losers
7. Recognizing Revolutions Four questions (from Eliot Cohen, “A Revolution in Warfare,” Foreign Affairs (March/April 1996) Will emerging developments in military affairs change the appearance of combat? Will these developments change the structure of armies? Will they lead to the rise of new military elites? Will they alter countries’ power positions? To the extent answers are “yes,” a Revolution in Military Affairs was occurring.
8. Cohen’s Conclusion “Reflection on each of these [four questions] suggests that this is the eve of a far-reaching change in warfare whose outlines are only dimly visible but real nonetheless. (emphasis added)”- Eliot Cohen, “A Revolution in Warfare,” Foreign Affairs 75/2 (March/April 1996).
9. Testing for an RIA Four questions (adapted from Cohen’s RMA questions) Will developments in the intelligence enterprise change how intelligence is developed and used (process)? Will developments change the structure of the U.S. intelligence community (structure)? Will developments lead to the rise of new elites in the intelligence community (skill sets)? Will developments significantly effect the national security of countries that fail to embrace them (effect)?
13. An RIA is Needed The answer to all four questions is “yes.” An RIA appears to be needed (but is not yet occurring) The intelligence process should change. The organizational structure to support the process should change. Future elites in the intelligence community should possess new skills. Failure to adapt will have serious consequences.
14. Mapping the RIA Thomas Kuhn and The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (first edition by University of Chicago Press, 1962) Paradigms and paradigm shifts Must first map the current or “traditional” intelligence paradigm Solving puzzles using secret information Puzzles have answers (as opposed to mysteries) All raw intelligence obtained through SIGINT, GEOINT, MASINT, HUMINT, and OSINT
15. Intelligence Requirements in Today’s Security Environment North Korea Iran, China, and other functioning states Pakistan, Afghanistan, Congo, Somalia, & other failing or failed states Al Qaeda and other transnational terrorist groups HIV/AIDS, Avian Flu, SARS and other Infectious Diseases Biopathogens
16. A New Intelligence Paradigm New paradigm must include the old one. Both must function without creating “destructive interference.” New paradigm must solve puzzles, mysteries, and “adaptive interpretations.” Adaptive interpretations apply to transnational issues/threats SIGINT, GEOINT, MASINT, HUMINT, and OSINT not sufficient – need new category of “trusted” information as well as classified and open source information Transnational threats require transnational solutions
17. Conclusions Many intelligence reforms have not met expectations because they clash with the traditional paradigm. Bureaucratic inertia & immersion in traditional paradigm Competing needs, such as information sharing vs. security concerns The traditional paradigm remains necessary, but it is not sufficient to keep U.S. intelligence effective. A Revolution in Intelligence Affairs is needed. Actors that embrace the RIA will gain advantages over those that continue with traditional practices Information flows and new collection methods are at the heart of the RIA. Analytic techniques must change accordingly.
18. Public Health andHomeland SecurityBadolato Distinguished Speakers SeriesTowson UniversityApril 29, 2011 Nikki Austin, PhD, MA, RN, CNE Assistant Professor Department of Nursing Towson University
19. World Health Report - 2007 Global Public Health Security in the 21st Century International Health Regulations of 2005 Public Health Threats Epidemic-prone Diseases Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Person to person transmission, incubates for a week, no vector, symptoms that are non-specific, heavy toll on hospital workers (p. xviii) Foodborne Diseases Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease Accidental and Deliberate Outbreaks Chemical – West Africa petrochemical dump of 2006 Radionuclear – Chernobyl Environmental Disasters
20. Violence Prevention MRSA Smallpox Chagus Disease West Nile Virus Pandemic/Avian Flu Obesity Disaster Preparedness Health Disparities Terrorism Chemical Biological Nuclear Radiological Dispersion Public Health: Population Based Care http://www.whatispublichealth.org/impact/today.html
21. Public Health Public health assessments Information sharing Triage priorities from a public health perspective Casualty distribution – knowledge of resources, development of procedures Disaster preparedness- public motivation (Landesman et al., 2003, p. 4)
22. Federal Legislation Homeland Security Act of 2002 Homeland Security Presidential Directive 5 National Government & Private Sectors Crisis and consequence DHS Secretary to manage incidents Rubin & Harrald (2006) National Response Plan National Incident Management System
23. Shared Responsibility National Culture of Preparedness (Pres. George W. Bush, 5 OCT 2007) National Strategy for Homeland Security All levels of government Private sector Communities All citizens
24. Community Preparedness Activities Citizen Corps The mission of Citizen Corps is to harness the power of every individual through education, training, and volunteer service to make communities safer, stronger, and better prepared to respond to the threats of terrorism, crime, public health issues, and disasters of all kinds. http://www.citizencorps.gov/about/ Medical Reserve Corps The mission of the MRC is to engage volunteers to strengthen public health, emergency response and community resiliency. http://www.medicalreservecorps.gov/About National Disaster Medical System It is the mission of the National Disaster Medical System to temporarily supplement Federal, Tribal, State and Local capabilities by funding, organizing, training, equipping, deploying and sustaining a specialized and focused range of public health and medical capabilities. http://www.phe.gov/preparedness/responders/ndms/Pages/default.aspx
26. Towson University – Thinking Outside Students, faculty, staff, community Partner agencies Education and drills Student education Integrated Homeland Security Management Off campus student projects College of Health Professions Department of Nursing: On and off campus activities
27. TU, Students, and Community Student Projects with IHSM 633 (Disaster Response and Community Health) Disaster plan in Dunbar High School* Disaster plan in a church in northern Japan* Disaster notification plan in a community Education for rural older adults in W. VA. Disaster preparedness for an at-risk population in West Baltimore Disaster plan for the Baltimore City Public Safety Center Disaster education at Johns Hopkins Hospital* Disaster preparedness at a senior center on Long Island *Places where disasters occurred after our planning.
28. Projects within the Department of Nursing’s Graduate Program Disaster education with the Bykota Senior Center Disaster education with the Our Lady of Grace Parish’s Youth Theater Group Disaster education in a local elementary school in Baltimore City TU, Students, and Community
30. Tornado on Campus Situation: Tornado on York Rd from I-695 to Baltimore City. Campus affected, multiple casualties, local authorities overwhelmed, MDDF deployed in Burdick Hall. Dr. Alves, ED Physician & Dr. Ogle, Nursing Faculty
48. References Rubin, C. B., & Harrald, J. R. (2006). National response plan, the national incident management system, and the federal response plan. In D. G. Kamien (Ed.). The McGraw-Hill homeland security handbook (pp. 677-688). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill. Landesman, L. Y., Malilay, J., Bissel, R. J., et al.,Becker, S. M., Roberts, L., & Ascher, M. S. (2003). Roles and responsibilities of public health in disaster preparedness and response. In L. F. Novick, J. S. Marr (Eds.). Public health issues in disaster preparedness: Focus on bioterrorism (pp. 1-56). Sudbury, MA: Jones and Bartlett. Homeland Security Council. (2007). National strategy for homeland security. Retrieved from http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/nat_strat_homelandsecurity_2007.pdf World Health Organization. (2007). A safer future: Public health security in the 21st century. Retrieved from http://www.who.int/whr/2007/whr07_en.pdf
52. The Department of Homeland Security The Department of Homeland Security Sept. 11th, 2001 Terrorist attacks against the U.S. at the World Trade Center and the Pentagon 2002 Nov. 25th, 2002 President Bush signs the Homeland Security Act creating the DHS. The department will come to employ more than 190,000 people 2003 March 1st, 2003 22 existing agencies from other cabinet level departments are merged together form the first DHS 2003 Creation of The Bureau of Customs and Border Protection focus on security at and between the ports-of-entry along the border 2003 Formation of The Bureau of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Presently employs more than 20,000 people and is the 2nd largest investigative agency in the Federal Government DHS.gov 2004 2004 Information Analysis and Infrastructure Protection requests and is granted an increase of $652 million (370 percent) over 2003 2004 New partnership with the Science and Technology Directorate's Advanced Research Project Agency who will direct $350 million in the DHS 2005 2005 Secure Border Initiative pumps an additional $10.3 billion into developing better security for U.S. borders Aug. 29th: Hurricane Katrina strikes the Gulf Coast. FEMA acts ineffectively and law makers push for the removal of FEMA from the DHS In 2006 and 2007 , FEMA undergoes a reorganization and realignment. In this time period, more than 1000 Marylanders lose their jobs at FEMA 2006 2006 The newly formed Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO) helps pick up the slack left from FEMA firings by hiring 200+ workers in MD 2007 2007 DHS R&D budget shrinks for the first time, by 22 percent. R&D sees growth in only cyber security, communications, and radiological and nuclear measures FY2007-2008 An increase of $224.2 million in funding will support the Transportation Security Administration's screening operations because of the new threat of liquid explosive devices 2008 2009 FY2009 The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) granted an additional $2.75 Billion to the DHS
53. Original Agencies The U.S. Customs Service (Treasury) The Immigration and Naturalization Service (Justice) The Transportation Security Administration (Transportation) Federal Law Enforcement Training Center (Treasury) Office for Domestic Preparedness (Justice) The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Domestic Preparedness Office (FBI) U.S. Coast Guard (Transportation) U.S. Secret Service (Treasury) Many existing agencies were merged to form the DHS The largest of which are: DHS.gov
54. DHS Directives Border and Transportation Security Protection of Critical Infrastructure Emergency Preparedness and Response Domestic Counterterrorism Intelligence and Warning Defense Against Catastrophic Threats Intel. 2010 Budget Distribution Border and Transportation Security Protection of Infra. Emerg Prep. Dom Count. FAS.org
57. Industry Growth as a Result of DHS Chemical, biological, and radiological detection Border, rail, seaport, industrial, and nuclear plant security Computer and human resources experts Boat manufacturers for the Coast Guard Information and integrated technology companies Management consulting firms USA Today
60. RESI Analysis of DHS Impacts on Maryland 2002-2010 Employment Labor Income Value Added to GDP
61. Maryland Procurement from DHS Procurement Contracts in 2009: $14,559,856,536 (U.S. total) $1,674,925,917 (Maryland total) 12% (Maryland share of U.S. total) Salaries and Wages in 2008: $12,333,918,562 (U.S. total) $255,569,717 (Maryland total) 2.1% (Maryland share of U.S. total) ChooseMaryland.org
62. Top 10 FY2010 DHS Contractors Government Security News 2011
63. Welcome to the Edward V. Badolato Distinguished Speaker Series Homeland security in 2011: A reflection of 10 years since 9/11
64. Maryland Higher Education Multi-year awards ranging between $10 million to $18 million Behavioral and sociological aspects of terrorism at the University of Maryland High consequence event preparedness and response at Johns Hopkins FAS.org
65. DHS and Cyber Security
66. Information Technology in Maryland From 2009-2014 government spending is expected to grow: 3.5% per year in general IT 8.1% a year in cyber security IT Employment Growth (2001-2008) - Maryland: +3.3% - National Average: -17.1% Computing Services in Maryland +7.2% employment increase in mid-recession 2009 - Highest growth rate in the nation Maryland Department of Business & Economic Development
67. Cyber Security and Maryland UMBC Maryland Department of Business & Economic Development
68. Federal Cyber Security Employment In Maryland Military Installation =1000 employees Maryland Department of Business & Economic Development
69. Please Welcome Our Keynote Speaker Dr. Lenora GantDeputy AssistantOffice of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI)
Editor's Notes
** (Italics for original department)**Departments merged March 1st 2003 At the time expected to be the 2nd largest Cabinet level Dept. Currently the third largest in terms of employment.The Federal Protective ServiceAnimal and Plant Health Inspection Service (part)(Agriculture)Strategic National Stockpile and the National Disaster Medical System (HHS)Nuclear Incident Response Team (Energy)Domestic Emergency Support Teams(Justice)CBRN Countermeasures Programs (Energy)Environmental Measurements Laboratory (Energy)National BW Defense Analysis Center (Defense)Plum Island Animal Disease Center (Agriculture)Federal Computer Incident Response Center (GSA)National Communications System (Defense)National Infrastructure Protection Center (FBI)Energy Security and Assurance Program (Energy)http://www.dhs.gov/xabout/history/editorial_0133.shtm
$45.8 Billion of discretionary budget for these directives.Border and Transportation Security 68%Protection of Infrastructure 13%Emergency Preparedness 7%Companies still have room to grow in areas where the DHS spends the most money which include management support, facilities management, construction, engineering consulting, IT integration, and guard services. Products and Services Relevant to the MarketBorder and Transportation Security: security programs designed to fully integrate homeland security measures into existing domestic transportation systems that promote the efficient and reliable flow of people, goods, and services across borders, while preventing terrorists from using transportation as weapons, or as a means of delivery of harmful goods. Detection and security services.Intelligence and Warning: Intelligence programs and warning systems that can detect terrorist activity before it takes place which include strategies to identify, collect, analyze, and distribute source intelligence information or the resultant warnings from intelligence analysis. Domestic Counterterrorism: incorporates federal funding for any law enforcement programs (including state, local, or regional) that investigate and prosecute criminal activity to prevent terrorist activity within the United States. It includes all homeland security programs that identify, halt, prevent, and prosecute terrorists in the United States.Protecting Critical Infrastructures and Key Assets: Programs that improve protection of the individual pieces and the interconnecting systems that make up our critical infrastructure; funding for programs associated with the physical or cyber security of federal assets. This mission area also includes programs designed to protect America’s key assets, which are those unique facilities, sites, and structures whose disruption or destruction could have significant consequences. Defending Against Catastrophic Threats: homeland security programs that involve protecting against, detecting, deterring, or mitigating the terrorist use of weapons of mass destruction, including understanding terrorists’ efforts to gain access to the expertise, technology, and materials needed to build chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) weapons. In addition, this mission area includes funding for efforts or planning to decontaminate buildings, facilities, or geographic areas after a catastrophic event. Emergency Preparedness and Response: programs that prepare to minimize the damage and recover from any future terrorist attacks that may occur despite our best efforts at prevention. This area includes programs that help to plan, equip, train, and practice the needed skills of the varied and necessary first responder units, including such groups as police officers, firefighters, emergency medical providers, public works personnel, and emergency management officials.Http://homelandsecuritynewswire.com/robust-homeland-security-market-2010
9/11/2001 Responsible for a huge spike in Homeland security activity. 100% increase in both Employment and Budget over the two following years. Has been constantly increaseing ever since.DHS http://www.dhs.gov/xabout/budget/OPM http://www.opm.gov/feddata/HistoricalTables/ExecutiveBranchSince1940.asp
In 2001, defense spending on homeland security was $56B (0.55% of nominal GDP) and over a five year period, rose to $99.5B in 2005 (0.80% of GDP) Over the same five year period, private sector security related labor inputs increased from $26.5B to $28.7B and security related capital inputs rose from $9.4B to $16.6BSpending profile does not directly match assumed activities of DHS as border and transportation security and protection of critical infrastructure account for the most DHS spending (65%)while intelligence and warning constitute the least spending (1%) because such expenditures are not directly linked to DHS ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________In Maryland, particularly in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, defense contracts flooded into the state and kept the state economy going despite 2 million jobs being lost throughout the rest of the country. The Baltimore Sun, November 2, 2003Marketplace forecasts for the global homeland security industry anticipate business will grow from approximately $40 billion in 2004, to nearly $180 billion by 2015. Extra NotesUS companies benefit the most from potential revenues in the security services sectorAbout 70% of private revenue comes from federal, state, and local fundingPrivate sector industries seeking products from security firms (and make up the other 30% in revenue) include:Financial institutionsTransportation Healthcare Communications Energy 2005: DHS awards over $600M in 2 year contracts to Boeing, Magal Security Systems, Oracle, IPIX, and International Microwave Corp Maryland, among other states, continues to seek out private companies to secure its ports. From 2005 through January 2007, government awarded more than $600M in contracts to Boeing, Magal Security Systems, Oracle, IPIX, and International Microwave Corp (a subsidiary of L-3 Communications) to help protect airports, borders, and ports; the majority of the money went to companies that specialize in access control and surveillance. The government does not have active product research and development so this is viewed as the best allocation of resources. “States such as Maryland are soliciting private companies to secure and operate their ports. New York is offering hundreds of thousands of dollars to companies that can safeguard public water supplies.”
*= Pre-Department of Homeland Security years. Numbers from an aggregate of the agencies that would be eventually combined to create the DHSLarge Spike in Employment in MD and VA after 9-11-2001FEMA 2005-2007 Maryland drop in employment caused by the restructuring of FEMA 2005-2007http://www.fedscope.opm.gov/employment.asp
2002-2010 totals from DHS employment in MD and commuters from MD to D.C.Does not encompass effects of any federal procurement.
FY 2010Of these top ten, Lockheed Martin is the only contractor headquartered in Maryland (Bethesda). But, many of these companies have branches in Maryland.General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems, Science Applications International Corporation, Booz Allen Hamilton, Computer Sciences Corporation are all headquartered in the Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC. However some have labs in Maryland or employ Maryland residents.Which of these companies have branches in Maryland/Employing Marylanders?Lockheed(Bethesda Headquarters)Science Applications International Corporation (Locations: Abingdon, Annapolis, Annapolis Junction, Bethesda, APG, Baltimore, Beltsville, Bowie, Burtonsville, California, Camp Springs, Clinton, College Park, Columbia, Dickerson, Edgewood, Elkridge, Fort Detrick, Ft. Meade, Frederick, Gaithersburg, Germantown, Greenbelt, Indian Head, La Plata, Landover, Lanham, Lexington Park, Linthicum, Patuxent River, Rising Sun, Rockville, Seabrook, Silver Spring, St. Inigoes), General Dynamics (Annapolis Junction), Booz Allen Hamilton (Aberdeen, Annapolis Junction, Baltimore, Frederick, Hanover, Lexington Park, Linthicum, Rockville), L-3 Communications (Easton, Hanover, Linthicum Heights, Millersville), Computer Sciences Corporation (locations in Northern Va. ; possibly employ MD’ers) Boeing(locations in Annapolis junction, and Northern Va. ; possibly employ MD’ers)
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/RS21270.pdf more info in charts on DHS
Maryland is one of only a few states the netted positive growth in the IT field in 2009, as well. From Nov. 2008 to Nov. 2009 Maryland had the highest growth rate of any state in computing services employment, at 7.2%, showing Maryland is fast become a more tech-centered economy. Cyber Security is seeing constant growth within DHS’s National Cyber Security Division. Maryland is more ready than any that is prepared to meet this new demand as it continues to grow. IDG News
The Baltimore- Washington corridor is an obvious cyber security centerAs of 2010, Maryland ranked fourth highest for government procurement money related to cyber security research and production. Maryland is clearly a leader in cyber security innovation and its prime geographical location facilitates the acquisition of DHS contracts from both the military installations in the state and in DC. Maryland ranks highly nationwide in terms of innovation in cyber security companies• 1st in federal research and development obligations on a per capita basis• 2nd in the Milken Institute’s 2008 State Technology and Science Index• 2nd in Federal R&D investment ($12.2 billion)• 2nd in R&D intensity– the ratio of R&D expenditures to gross domesticproduct by state• 3rd highest score in the 2008 State New Economy Index (ITIF 2008)• 7th highest number of computer systems design jobs (57,400) and engineeringservices jobs (32,000)Since Maryland’s power grid is separate from New York’s, it provides a secure location for back-office operations along with easy transportation access to the global markets and a fiber-rich, reliable telecommunications network. http://www.umbc.edu/cyber/documents/DBED_CyberMaryland_1.10_001.pdf
Aberdeen Proving Ground houses the Army’s Communication and Electronics Command (CECOM) and its substantial engineering and research capabilities, which moved here from New Jersey. The U.S. Navy houses the Fleet Cyber Command at Fort Meade.Research from INPUT, a market research firm, estimates the federal IT market alonewas $81 billion in 2008, with projected growth to $98 billion in 2013. The demand forinformation security products and services by the federal government–including civilian,defense and intelligence communities–demand forinformation security will increase from $7.9 billion in 2009 to $11.7 billionin 2014.These military posts play a crucial role in defending homeland security and the increasing reliance on information means these installations are primary users of cyber-security. The state is home to 12 major military installations and four smaller “niche” facilities establishing national security; designing aircraft and energetic systems; testing ordnance weapons, combat vehicles, aircraft, avionics systems;performing biomedical research; providing medical care to the armed forces; and facilitating global telecommunications.Top Maryland Defense IT ContractorsBoeingBooz Allen Hamilton.CACI InternationalComputer Sciences CorporationGeneral Dynamics CorporationHoneywell InternationalIBML3 CommunicationsLockheed Martin CorporationMITRENorthrop Grumman CorporationSAIC
