Tendencias de Consumo 2020. 4 Escenarios

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2. foreword
by
ell
We can be sure of one thing about the Sainsbury’’s, Unilever and Forum for the
future: it will be radically different from Future have jointly produced Consumer
today. The global recession shows how Futures as a practical tool to help
quickly things can change –– and we face organisations throughout the global
much greater challenges to our economy consumer goods industry to prepare for
and way of life, such as scarcity of key the future. We want to help them explore
resources, rapid population growth, climate how consumer expectations and
change and loss of biodiversity. These behaviour will change and use these new
problems of sustainability affect our insights to take the lead in driving
consumers and suppliers around the globe forward sustainable consumption.
and are putting ever-­increasing pressure on
our business models. They make it We have combined our knowledge of
essential for us to reorient our global product value chains, consumer demand,
economy around sustainable, low-­carbon behaviour change and sustainability to
patterns of consumption. produce four plausible, provocative
scenarios which explore possible
Over the next 10 years we can expect major patterns of consumption in 2020. Brands
changes to the consumer retail sector. are used to drawing on recent market
Demand for basic resources such as oil, data and near-­term market projections to
water and staple crops is likely to increase help develop products and services, but
and prices will rise. Consumers’’ behaviour this tends to encourage only incremental
and expectations will change: we expect change. By looking further ahead and
growing demand for manufacturers and understanding what the future may hold,
retailers to operate responsibly and to we can identify risks and opportunities
demonstrate this through transparent value and even how we can help shape that
chains. Successful brands will need to future. We plan to use the scenarios and
innovate to meet challenges like these, accompanying tools to inspire innovation,
develop sustainable products, services and inform business strategy and develop
business models, and work with consumers sustainable business models. We urge
to make them a success. you to do the same.
This represents a huge opportunity for
forward-­thinking brands to position
themselves at the heart of the new, green
economy, evolving the market to meet Justin King,
consumer needs in different, sustainable Chief Executive, J Sainsbury plc
ways. Many brands have built a trusted
relationship with millions of consumers, and
with it brand loyalty, which can last a
lifetime. We believe this gives them both the Amanda Sourry,
power and the responsibility to help people Chairman, Unilever UK & Ireland
lead better, more sustainable lives. In fact,
it’’s hard to see sustainable consumption
becoming mainstream unless brands take
the lead. Dr Sally Uren,
Deputy CEO, Forum for the Future

3. introduction
In developed nations we live in an Consumer Futures 2020 aims to help
unprecedented world of super-­ businesses do this. It is designed as a
consumption. Our economy demands practical tool to help organisations
that we consume to keep it growing throughout the global consumer goods
healthily. Marketing campaigns whisper industry plan for the future. It contains four
““buy-­me, buy-­me””, and before we know it different but entirely plausible scenarios
our homes are filled with ‘‘stuff’’. We love which explore how patterns of consumption
to consume, and it is firmly engrained as and consumer behaviour may have
a social norm –– a (sometimes) fun, changed by 2020.
(mostly) daily activity that the majority of
us partake in. Globally, we already The scenarios are not intended to be
consume 30% more resources each year predictions or visions of desired futures.
than our planet can replenish. But if They look at how global trends may change
everyone consumed at European rates our world and the consumer goods
we would need three planets, and industry, and how sustainable products,
Americans have a five-­planet lifestyle.1 services and business models could
become mainstream.
It’’s clear we cannot go on this way. We
face unprecedented challenges, such as None of the ideas, fictional brands or
accelerating climate change, loss of stories in any of the Consumer Futures
biodiversity, rising social inequalities, materials are predictions of what the future
rapid population growth, and growing will hold, nor do they represent what
demand for water and key commodities. Sainsbury's or Unilever is currently planning
We must adapt our societies and to bring to market. They are simply
economies to sustainable patterns of designed to bring the scenarios to life.
consumption –– low if not zero-­carbon,
resource-­efficient and profitable –– as Future scenarios are an invaluable tool for
soon as we can. forward-­thinking businesses to use when
planning ahead. They help identify risks and
Retail businesses are used to responding opportunities, inform strategy development,
to consumer demand, or ‘‘pull’’ –– it is their and stimulate innovation. Sainsbury’’s and
principal business driver –– but this will Unilever are already using them to explore
not deliver the radical changes we need new ways of collaborating on initiatives that
to create a prosperous, resource-­efficient will deliver sustainability and commercial
world. Most consumers don’’t have benefit to both organisations.
enough information, opportunity or
motivation to make sustainable choices The scenarios are accompanied by a toolkit
about how they buy and use products, so to help you make best use of the scenarios.
‘‘green’’ or ‘‘sustainable’’ consumption is It includes six sketched-­up products and
still niche, and companies make only services for each scenario illustrating how
incremental improvements. Leading brands may meet consumer needs in 2020,
brands need to take the initiative and and a set of personas which can be used to
work together to stimulate consumer pull analyse the scenarios from different
on sustainability and make ‘‘sustainable consumer perspectives.
consumption’’ mainstream.
1
Goncalves, E. (2008). One Planet Lifestyle, WWF http://assets.panda.org/downloads/opl_ebooklet.pdf

4. ‘my way’
‘My way’ is a high-‐t ech world , with a
prosp erous and entre prene urial
econo my domin ated by
stainable
tream su
commu nity-‐b ased trade . Smart
h at mains m . By produ cts promo te patter ns of
s shows t emain a pipedrea ocial
er Future
consu mption that use less energ y and
r
““Consum n doesn’’t have to no mic and s ve water and gener ate less CO . Many
tio ntal, eco ha 2
consump w key environme ext few years, we
fresh produ cts come in smart
packa ging that keeps them
ploring ho over the n ocus on
ex out h f refrig erate d and chang es colou r
ight play rlds whic each
trends m uture wo aviours. In when they pass the use-‐by date.
possible f purchasing beh
do it yours elf
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our sures
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drive nsumers econo
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whether hether th hat there ses to
s shows t
commu nities, colla borat ion and
regardle ss of w e s
er Future nd busin innova tive busine ss model s facili tate
. Consum r smart brands a
subdued low-‐ca rbon lifest yles. The econo my
today, fo e trans ition to a is subdu ed and uncer tain and
portunity, y accelerating th easy for
‘from me to
op g it consu mers feel busine ss is failing
ney b an makin ervices to
make mo is will me g products and s lthier, delive r on the challe nges faced by
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which are longer-­lasting.””
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5. ‘sell it to me’
‘Sell it to me’ is a perso nalise d
consu mer world in a flour ishing globa
l
econo my which is domin ated by brand ““Companies w
s.
Innova tive produ cts provid e perso ill have to cha
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s -­term sustain ey do business
impreg nated with vitamin s or shamp ever-­greater c able growth. T ,
oo onsumption, w he old model
lather that chang es colou r to indica
tebroken. Compa ith growth at a of
minera l defic iencie s. nies that succe ny price, is
that reduce th ed in the futu
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social and eco tal impact whi e
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we find new w s. This will onl eir
ays of doing b y be possible
Unilever intro
do it for me
usiness, and th if
duced its Sus is is why
out a more su tainable Livin
stainable busi g Plan which s
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ever-­more im
regul ated world in which consu mers future needs a portant for us
nd expectatio to anticipate
trust brand s to provid e what’s best
can drive sust ns of our con the
for them and for the enviro nment. ainable growth sumers so that
future. and ensure ou we
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provid e them with perso nalise d Sainsbury’’s o with Forum fo superma rket deliver y
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trust utures to help
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wat er sav ing
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5
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6. prosperous
do it yourself
‘my way’ ‘sell it to me’
do it for me
‘from me to you’ ‘I’m in your hands’
less prosperous
In order to create our scenarios we took what we see as the two least certain trends with the
greatest impact on the future of the consumer goods industry:
Prosperous vs Less prosperous –– by 2020 will our economy be flourishing or subdued?
Do-­it-­yourself vs Do-­it-­for-­me –– will consumers take the initiative to satisfy their needs or
expect brands to do this for them?
We used these to create a two-­by-­two matrix, which in turn enabled us to create the
scenarios exploring how these trends could play out, as illustrated along the axes.
how sustainable are these futures?
The scenarios help us understand what possess something just to derive a
mainstream sustainable consumption could benefit.
look like. None of them portray a world where
consumption is truly sustainable, but in each A better choice of choice, where the
scenario, social and environmental pressures unsustainable product or service is no
have made aspects of it commonplace. But longer available and consumers are
first, what do we mean by sustainable choosing within a set of sustainable
consumption? There are umpteen definitions options. The concept of consumer
out there. We think sustainable consumption sovereignty –– where we all have a free
is characterised by, but not limited to, the choice –– is a fiction. By deciding what to
following features: stock, and what to make, retailers and
manufacturers have already made choices
Smart growth, where economic growth is on behalf of their consumers.
not delivered at the expense of the
environment, and where the overall Positive social impact, where what and
environmental footprint of business has how we buy promotes well-­being in
reduced. Smart growth is characterised by individuals, communities and supply
‘‘decoupling’’ commercial success from chains. Right now, we know that simply
environmental impact, often by delivering buying more and more ‘‘stuff’’ doesn’’t
more economic value per unit resource used. make us any happier, and certainly doesn’’t
promote community cohesion. In fact,
Smart use, where impacts associated with analysis of the recent civil unrest in the UK
product use and disposal are minimal. It is tells us that the pursuit of shiny ‘‘stuff’’ can
characterised by closed loops, or even open be an indication of communities in
loops, where someone’’s waste is another’’s distress. So, smart consumption involves
raw material;; take-­back schemes, where transactions for goods and services that
used goods return to the manufacturer;; have a positive social benefit, where
product to service shifts;; and different novelty and implied personal status are far
g
ownership models –– consumers don’’t need to less important than they are today.
ts

7. scenario 1
‘my way’
1. the economy is… prosperous, and characterised by high levels of
entrepreneurial activity
2. government is… limited in its role at national level, but more active at the
local level
3. our society is… optimistic but individualistic and deeply divided between haves
and have-‐nots
4. business and brands are… less powerful and forced to innovate
constantly and to adapt to local needs… community-‐based trade dominates – often
between communities in different parts of the world
5. we buy stuff from… individual producers around the globe, local brands and
businesses, cooperatives and online exchanges… we particularly like ‘home-‐grown’ or
locally produced products
6. our relationship with brands is… demanding and unpredictable,
web-‐based, interactive, transparent and influenced by peer-‐to-‐peer recommendation
7. we use the internet and technology… to make our lives easier and to
socialise, trade and protest with people around the world
8. we think that sustainability is… desirable in our local communities, but
when it comes to global issues we often put the satisfaction of our own needs and wants
before the greater good
‘underground veg' movement
and high-‐rise farming personal energy micro-‐manager ‘scoff-‐ometer’ cutlery
personal energy 1st
hydroponic and advanced 2nd scoffing
glass technology monitor
3rd
‘underground veg’
movement
ian 4
hom
e
th
pl ac
e
– instant feedback
trav
el
– networkab le
– compete with friends

8. scenario 2
‘sell it to me’
1. the economy is… flourishing and globally integrated... consumer spending and
credit levels are high… large companies dominate
2. government is… strong nationally but weak at local level... increasingly being
replaced by market-‐based mechanisms to deliver social and environmental goods
3. our society is… over-‐reliant on consumerism and pleasure seeking, with
increasing income inequality and declining social cohesion
4. business and brands are… dominant, trusted and expected to provide
solutions to environmental problems… investing heavily in the shopper experience
5. we buy stuff from… trusted brands, one-‐stop ‘shopper-‐tainment’ villages and
small specialist companies owned by large retailers
6. our relationship with brands is… highly personalised, pleasure seeking,
demanding and based on trust
7. we use the internet and technology… largely for entertainment and
making our lifestyles easier… but businesses use it to gather large amounts of personal
information on us
8. we think that sustainability is… a mainstream issue, together with
health or effective public services, but ultimately we don’t feel a duty to change our
lifestyles as we’re sure that businesses and institutions will solve the world’s problems
diet manager design your own products branded baby bonds
the floyd family personalised
products
analysing household
requirements and
updating shopping ate:
ment d
list in v e s t ju n e 2 0 2 0
18 th
f lo y d
c hr is
na m e : 12 6 7 8
43 68
information lifelon
database discount

9. scenario 3
‘from me to you’
1. the economy is… subdued and uncertain... fear about climate change and severe
weather has increased… communities are turning to alternative economic models
2. government is… losing the confidence of the public and increasingly
neglecting the wider public realm… quality of life and the ‘wellbeing’ agenda, however,
are dominant concerns
3. our society is… feeling the pinch of resource constraints, high personal debt
and low pensions but building stronger local community ties and home-‐grown solutions
where government fails to take the lead
4. business and brands are… suffering from a contraction in the retail
sector… having to work hard to win trust as consumers feel that business is failing to
deliver on the challenges faced by society
5. we buy stuff from… direct and local sources, cooperatives and peer-‐to-‐peer
services for swapping and selling goods... we like to grow our own produce in urban
farms and make or repair more stuff ourselves
6. our relationship with brands is… less loyal and more volatile… less
important than word-‐of-‐mouth recommendations, product quality and longevity
7. we use the internet and technology… as the heart of our social and
economic life and individual identity... to trade or buy collectively and to increase our
cooperative buying power
8. we think that sustainability is… something local communities need to
tackle… going to involve cutting net consumption rather than simply consuming more
sustainable products for sale
peer-‐to-‐peer
the mortgages
community es
fin do rf fa rm sh ar
or e
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farm tha t
arr
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e ’s
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n o t ic d u c e is o m e a
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alon ken!
c h ic peer-‐to-‐peer bankers
first-‐time
buyers

10. scenario 4
‘I’m in your hands’
1. the economy is… recovering from the recession but growth and consumer
confidence are low and credit is tightly regulated… the UK is looking to promote local
manufacturing and food production to reduce its reliance on a shaky world trade system
2. government is… more centralised and more interventionist, and works closely
with businesses and NGOs to deliver essential services… using tough regulations to achieve
sustainability targets
3. our society is… more egalitarian, structured and supervised, but we welcome this
and enjoy a strong consensus, sense of community and national identity
4. business and brands are… big and dominant yet bound by government’s
strict sustainability guidelines… trusted, reliable, paternalistic brands do well in this
world and are the vehicle for long-‐term relationships with consumers
5. we buy stuff from… trusted brands and businesses, often committing to
long-‐term contracts or hire purchase agreements to get value for money… big retailers
with high street shops that do home delivery for all the goods
6. our relationship with brands is… long-‐term, personal, loyal and
conservative… we are happy to share lots of personal data with brands and we trust them
to provide what’s best for us... we want products to be effective and durable
7. we use the internet and technology… heavily… to find the best deals
and purchase basic supplies… to scrutinise the origin and quality of products
8. we think that sustainability is… critical… a matter on which government
and business take the lead, while frugality and a ‘waste not want not’ attitude are already
the norm for us
retailer leased
in-‐store
benefits equipment lifetime products
rental
supply of
cradle to grave
benefits collection
collection
neighbourhood church
benefit
discounts

11. recommendations
Businesses and brands should start taking action now to prepare for a rapidly changing
economic, environmental and social climate. Here are our five key recommendations:
Take innovative business models to market
In all of our scenarios, brands and businesses have evolved and adapted their new
business models to address challenges such as resource scarcity, changing consumer
demands and the need to build resilience into value chains threatened by the accelerating
impacts of climate change. Companies should be ready to innovate and to develop, trial
and learn from experimenting with new, sustainable business models. The companies that
do this today will be the ones profiting tomorrow.
Work with your value chain to find new solutions
Manufacturers and retailers operate in a complex system, and the challenges of shifting to
sustainable consumption are too great for any organisation on its own. Companies should
collaborate across their value chain, incentivising farmers, suppliers, designers,
producers, retailers and others to work with them to find innovative solutions to bringing
goods and services to market.
Strengthen local brands and local production
There is no guarantee that global brands will continue to win the hearts and minds of
consumers. In two of our scenarios, communities have built up resilient systems to source
the products and services they need. Brands that embrace and boost local production
and have a local authentic story will resonate with consumers.
Build up long-­term trust through transparency
Consumers can find information on the origins of products and services more easily than
ever before thanks to social media and advances in information and communication
technology (ICT), and this trend is likely to continue. Companies are unable to keep
environmental or social skeletons in their closets in any of our scenarios. In this world,
‘‘green’’ and ‘‘ethical’’ are no longer niche, and robust standards on environmental and
social performance are mainstreamed into everyday products and services.
Companies should prepare for a world where society demands absolute transparency
from brands. Businesses which open up their value chains for scrutiny now will earn the
most trust from consumers.
Use the power of marketing to accelerate sustainability
Don’’t wait for consumers to demand more sustainable products and services. Savvy
brands will make money by accelerating the transition to a more sustainable world.
Companies should use their marketing, communications and innovation skills to create
consumer demand for sustainable and profitable products and services. Brands need to
understand possible future consumer needs better and to positively influence the things
that consumers buy and how they use and dispose of them.

12. about
Forum for the Future: Consumer Futures has been led by Forum
Overseas House
19––23 Ironmonger Row for the Future in partnership with
London, EC1V 3QN Sainsbury’’s and Unilever.
United Kingdom
Registered charity number: 1040519 Forum for the Future is a non-­profit
Company limited by guarantee: 2959712 organisation working globally with
Date of publication: October 2011
business and government to create a
sustainable future. We aim to transform
Forum for the Future authors: the critical systems that we all depend on,
Fiona Bennie, Dan Crossley, James Goodman, Jemima
Jewell, Hugh Knowles, Sally Uren such as food, energy and finance, to
make them fit for the challenges of the
Forum for the Future support team: 21st century. We have 15 years’’
Ruth Curran, David Mason, Ulrike Stein
experience inspiring new thinking,
Special thanks to the Sainsbury’’s and Unilever building creative partnerships and
teams for their contribution to this project.
developing practical innovations to
For more information please contact: change our world.
Fiona Bennie f.bennie@forumforthefuture.org www.forumforthefuture.org
Dan Crossley d.crossley@forumforthefuture.org
Design by: Ian Dera www.iandera.com J Sainsbury plc was founded in the UK in
1869 and today operates a total of 934
stores comprising 557 supermarkets and
377 convenience stores. Sainsbury’’s
stores have a particular emphasis on fresh
food, and we strive to innovate
continuously and improve products in line
with our customer needs. We now serve
over 22 million customers a week and
have a market share of over 16 per cent.
We employ over 150,000 colleagues.
www.sainsburys.co.uk.
Unilever is one of the world’’s leading
suppliers of fast-­moving consumer goods.
Consumers buy 170 billion Unilever packs
around the world every year, and our
products are used over two billion times a
day. Our portfolio includes some of the
world’’s most loved brands including
Knorr, Hellmann’’s, PG Tips, Lipton, Dove,
Vaseline, Persil, Cif, Flora and Marmite.
We have around 167,000 employees in
over 100 countries, and generated annual
sales of €44.3 billion in 2010. For more
To find out more and download the Consumer Futures information please visit www.unilever.com
toolkit go to: and www.sustainable-­living.unilever.com.
http://www.forumforthefuture.org/project/consumer-­futures/overview