The iPhone Evolution

the iPhone evolution
Hypothesis:
From driving innovation, Apple has been reduced to a
company that churns out incrementally improved iPhones
every year. But their marketing blurb is more and more
clichéd by the version.
While the iPhone is a beautiful and impressive piece of
technology, it is hardly innovative anymore, and has been
overtaken by other competitive brands.
PS! This informal analysis is based on the iPhone and competing brands at the time of the 5S-launch in 2013.

First, let’s take a look at the launch slogans of each iPhone.

«This changes everything.»
The slogan for the
original iPhone in 2007

«The first phone to beat
the iPhone.»
The slogan for the
iPhone 3G, 2008.

«The fastest, most powerful
iPhone yet.»
The slogan for the
iPhone 3GS, 2009.

«This changes everything...
again.»
The slogan for the
iPhone 4, 2010.

«The most amazing
iPhone yet.»
The slogan for the
iPhone 4S, 2011.

«The biggest thing to happen
to iPhone since iPhone.»
The slogan for the
iPhone 5, 2012.

«Forward thinking.»
The slogan for the upcoming
iPhone 5S, 2013.

It appears that the slogans for any upcoming iPhone are as
incremental in their creativity as the level of innovation
of the phones themselves.
Also, most slogans for the S-versions end with «yet».

Second, let’s compare the different iPhone models.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
1 2 3 4 5 6 8
iPhone iPhone 3G iPhone 3G S iPhone 4 iPhone 4S iPhone 5 iPhone 5S
7
iPhone 5C
128 MB RAM
3.5”
480x320
163 DPI
135 g
D: 11.6 mm
L: 115 mm
2 MP
New design
128 MB RAM
3.5”
480x320
163 DPI
133 g
D: 12.3 mm
L: 115.5 mm
2 MP
New design
256 MB RAM
3.5”
480x320
163 DPI
135 g
D: 12.3 mm
L: 115.5 mm
3 MP
A4 chip
512 MB RAM
3.5”
960x640
326 DPI
137 g
D: 9.3 mm
L: 115.2 mm
5 MP
New design
A5 chip
512 MB
3.5”
960x640
326 DPI
140 g
D: 9.3 mm
L: 115.2 mm
8 MP
A6 chip
1 GB RAM
4”
1136x640
326 DPI
112 g
D: 7.6 mm
L: 123.8 mm
8 MP
New design
A6 chip
1 GB RAM
4”
1136x640
326 DPI
132 g
D: 8.97 mm
L: 124.4 mm
8 MP
A7 chip
1 GB RAM
4”
1136x640
326 DPI
112 g
D: 7.6 mm
L: 123.8 mm
8 MP

Third, to illustrate the incrementality of the features,
let’s put the numbers in graphs.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Memory
in Screen size
1024 MB
512 MB
0 MB
iPhone 3G 3GS 4 4S 5 5S
4.1
4
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
DPI
g Weight
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Thickness
Height
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
126
124
122
120
118
116
114
112
110
mm
mm

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Camera
New design
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Yes
No
MPX

Fourth, let’s compare the current iPhone 5S
to a couple of leading competitor brands
at the time of launch.

HTC One
iPhone 5S
A7 chip
1 GB RAM
4'
1136x640
326 DPI
112 g
D: 7.6 mm
L: 123.8 mm
8 MP
iOS 7.0
Snapdragon 600
2 GB RAM
4.7’
1920x1080
468 DPI
143 g
D: 9.3 mm
L: 137.4 mm
4 MP
Android 4.2.2
Galaxy S4
Snapdragon 600
2 GB RAM
5.0’
1920x1080
441 DPI
130 g
D: 7.9 mm
L: 136.6 mm
13 MP
Android 4.2.2
Comparable advantages

Where Apple once (copied LG and) became a world
innovative leader in smartphones with the launch of the
original iPhone in 2007, they now offer only incremental
improvements to the iPhone range.
It has long ago been bypassed by competitors.

Fifth, based on the trends seen in the previous feature
timeline graphs, and current media speculation (or leaks)
we can now present the iPhone 6 as it will be launched.
This prediction has an accuracy of 96%.
We can therefore also with a certainty greater than
a hunch predict the coming iPhone specs
of the next 6-7 years.
Let’s start with the slogan for the upcoming version 6.

«Again, this changes
everything. Again.»
The slogan for the upcoming
iPhone 6, 2014.
And now for the actual upcoming iPhone 6…

iPhone 6
A8 chip
2 GB RAM
4.7‘ (+ 5.5’)
1136x640
326 DPI
117 g
D: 7.7 mm
L: 123.6 mm
10 MP
iOS 8.0
This is
nothing short of
revolutionary!!!!
…although you know it will sell in the millions,
and you’ll want one too. So will I.
The design might actually not be as radically different from the current model 5S or the mockup depicted above.
(Mockup by The Tech Block)

This really makes you wonder if Apple is on autopilot, on a
course set by the late Jobs, which is only a business model
that might actually work for ten more years.

So, what if we apply the trends from the graphs and
predict the iPhones for the next few years?
Sixth, let’s have a peek!

2016 2020 2021
iPhone 6 iPhone 6S iPhone 7 iPhone 7S iPhone 8 iPhone 8S iPhone 9S
15
iPhone 9
2014 2015 2017 2018 2019
9 10 11 12 13 14 16
A8 chip
2 GB RAM
4.7”
1136x640
326 DPI
117 g
D: 7.7 mm
L: 123.6 mm
10 MP
New design *
A9 chip
2 GB RAM
4.7”
1136x640
326 DPI
119 g
D: 7.7 mm
L: 123.6 mm
12 MP
A10 chip
3 GB RAM
4.7”
1280x720
349 DPI
115 g
D: 7.5 mm
L: 123.2 mm
12 MP
New design
A11 chip
3 GB RAM
4.7”
1280x720
349 DPI
115 g
D: 7.5 mm
L: 123.3 mm
12 MP
A12 chip
4 GB
4.7”
1280x720
349 DPI
112 g
D: 7.2 mm
L: 124 mm
15 MP
New design
A13 chip
4 GB RAM
4.7”
1280x720
349 DPI
112 g
D: 7.2 mm
L: 124 mm
15 MP
A14 chip
8 GB RAM **
5”
1590x720
349 DPI
105 g
D: 6.9 mm
L: 126 mm
16 MP
New design
A15 chip
8 GB RAM
5”
1590x720
349 DPI
105 g
D: 6.9 mm
L: 126 mm
19 MP
* New design, as before, means slightly new design.
** At one point, perhaps around iPhone 9, memory will be so cheap that even Apple will have to close the gap to its’ competitors and double the RAM.

This has been a highly informal analysis and wild
speculation about the future evolution of the iPhone,
based on statistical data found on the internets.
How delighted we will all be if
Apple has a new idea again.
Meanwhile we’re waiting for the iPhone revolution.
All sources Wikipedia, unless otherwise stated.

The iPhone Evolution

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The iPhone Evolution