845 richard karn

“...I’m as mad as Hell and I’m not going to take it anymore.”

Richard Karn
Managing Editor
The Emerging Trends
Report
Anchorage, Alaska

“Great Britain’s wholesale price index, expressed as 100 in 1717 was also 100 in 1930 when Great Britain took
the pound off the gold standard”; by 1977 when Jastrow published The Gold Constant, the index had increased
by more than 2000% in less than 50 years..

www.emergingtrendsreport.com

Population Growth: 2.2%

GDP Growth: 6.46% CAGR

M2/M3 Growth: 7.04% CAGR

Public Debt: 9.03% CAGR

Purchasing Power:
-3.16% or -4.17 CADR

>30 changes to the way CPI is calculated, each lowering CPI
< COLA + < money paid Social Security benefits, gov’t pensions
= > GDP


If Past is
Prologue...


 Putin: “...the parasitic nature of the US dollar...”

 Wen: “...irresponsible money printing ...”

 Roessef: “...perverse effects of (US dollar) policy...”


Totalitarian regimes tend to
attribute their motives to their
enemies as a way to justify both
their actions and pre-emptive
strikes.

(paraphrased from Arendt, H.: Totalitarianism)


If you want to ‘save money’: gold & silver bullion

If you want to grow your wealth in a negative real
interest rate environment, you cannot NOT
speculate; but where?

 Gold and Silver stocks
 Hard Assets: Energy, Resources & Agriculture
 Specialty Metal stocks

 gold will continue to as act like a leveraged inverse short
ETF against confidence in central banking and
interventionist policies (Grice/Hoye);

 whether a broad decline in input costs outpacing the
decline in the gold price or the price of gold outpacing the
increase in input costs, we believe gold mining profits will
outperform most if not all other sectors; and,

 shareholder dividends will attract significant interest
because the companies are backed by gold and motivated
by profit rather than being paper promises backed by the
full faith and credit of a leftist governments and corrupt
central banks administering fiat currency regimes.

 fiat currency abuse/corruption

 long overdue infrastructure restoration and /or
expansion in both the USA and EU
a) water & wastewater treatment
b) Oil & Gas pipelines (400,000 & 270,000 miles respectively),
pumping stations, and refineries + shale build-out
c) North American Electrical Grid
d) 103 nuclear power plants, some dating from the ’60s

 nature of bureaucracies

 Endless pursuit of higher quality, ever more efficient devices at
ever lower prices
 Technology-enabled explosion in material science R&D
 Unique performance characteristics in tech alloys
 Limited substitution + trace amounts used = price inelastic
 Scarcity or byproduct sourcing = supply inelastic
 Many have dissipative uses but no recycling protocols
 Specialty metal demand trajectory is discovery-driven and
largely independent of GDP (unlike oil, base metals, lumber etc)

…cycle back to top and repeat—faster.


HDD Capacity Growth

The Great Stabilizer:
- 3G and 4G super alloys (Ni, Co, V, W, Mo + Re)
- perpendicular bit stacking HDDs
- artificial photosynthesis
- nano-lattice for targeted drug delivery Note that the vertical axis is logarithmic,
so the ‘fit’ to reflect growth in HDD
capacity reflects exponential growth.

 Not easy to invest in: mis- & disinformation

 Murky pricing: few are traded on an exchange

 Off-exchange traded metals are unhedgeable

 Many are by-products and sold forward

 Pricing is discovery-driven, not GDP-correlated

 Free Marketeers in denial about Neomercantilist
intentions


Sovereign Risk Scarcity No Substitute By-product Dissipative Use

antimony (5) beryllium (3) bismuth (3) cobalt (3)
fluorspar (2) gallium (3) germanium (3) graphite (3)
hafnium (2) indium (3) lithium (2) magnesia (3)
manganese (2) molybdenum (2) niobium (4) 6 PGMs (5)
15 REEs (4) rhenium (3) scandium (3) selenium (4)
silicon (2) silver (3) tantalum (2) tellurium (4)
tin (3) titanium (2) tungsten (3) vanadium (2)
zirconium (3)

26

Hageluken, Christian:”Sustainable metals recycling from waste electronics”; South Pacific Regional E-waste Workshop; Brisbane, QLD, 21.07.2010.


 321m computers sold globally in 2010, 98m in US alone
 1.3b cell phones sold globally in 2010; number in use
surpasses 5.0b (Gartner)
 123,000 computers are discarded every day in the US--19%
are recycled
 402,000 cell phones are discarded every day in the US--13%
are recycled (EPA)
 200 g/t Au in PC motherboard scrap;
 mobile phone scrap: 340 g/t Au, 3500 g/t Ag, 140 g/t Pd,
130 kg Cu (EPA)

Fiat Currency Abuse History
+ discovery-driven trend + Free Marketeers vs Neo-mercantilists
+ resource nationalism/corruption + increasing resource nationalism
+ increasingly intrusive bureaucracies + EM demand
+ politically-motivated export restrictions + China fears + WTO + trade wars
+ deeper mines, more accidents + relentless demand
+ declining # of qualified personnel + inexpensive valuations
+ ever more environmental restrictions + few threats under investor control
+ civil conflicts + project finance improving
+ power supply disruptions + uniquely varied & stable geology
+ national/corporate/private stockpiling
+ low hanging fruit (deposits) long gone AUSTRALIA
+ exploration venturing farther afield
+ lack of recycling protocols
+ relentless demand  gold & Spec Met miners
HIGHER RESOURCE PRICES  mid-cap producers (M&A)
 proven micro-cap deposits
 micro-cap historic mines


845 richard karn

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