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A Green Economy:
  What is it, and how to get there
                Professor Stewart Elgie
University of Ottawa, Faculty of Law, and Institute of Environment
     Chair, Sustainable Prosperity Research-Policy Network
What I’m Going To Say
1. WHY do we need a Green Economy?
2. WHAT is a Green Economy?
3. HOW to get there?
4. WHAT can the CEC do?
1. Why Do We Need a Green Economy?

Environmental
          and

           Economic reasons
We’re Using Up the Earth’s Resources




“More than 60% of the Earth’s ecosystem services are
being degraded or used unsustainably”
                     Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005)
Climate Change

Dangerous level
Water Scarcity
Forest Loss




   Today
 8,000 Years Ago
Vanishing Species
The IUCN Red List for All Bird Species
Growing Economic Opportunity
   Renewable Energy Investment
Stewart Elgie Presentation - Commission for Environmental Cooperation: Greening the Economy in North America November 2010
Organic Food Sales
Global Environmental Business
So Building a Green(er) Economy is ...

Ecologically essential
                  and

                  Economically smart
2. What is a “Green Economy”?
What is a “Green Economy”?
UNEP: “A Green Economy can
be defined as an economy that
results in improved human well-
being and reduced inequalities
over the long term, while not
exposing future generations to
significant environmental risks
and ecological scarcities”.


          ??
Is it ...
• An economy that minimizes its environmental
  impacts?
• By that measure, the ‘greenest’ economies are
  1. East Timor
  2. Bangladesh
  3. Malawi
  4. Haiti
  (lowest ecological footprints per capita)
Ecological Footprint and GDP per capita

                               10.0
Ecological Footpring per cap




                                9.0


                                8.0


                                7.0


                                6.0


                                5.0


                                4.0


                                3.0


                                2.0


                                1.0


                                0.0
                                      0       10000   20000        30000     40000   50000   60000


                                                              GDP/cap (I$)
North American Economy not very ‘Green’
            Environmental Performance (OECD)
                                       Overall country ranking
Source: Gunton et al., Simon           1. Denmark
Fraser University (2010)               2.Sweden
(Based on 28 environmental             3. Norway
                                       4. Switzerland
performance indicators, e.g.:
                                       5. Germany
pollution (air, water), waste, GHGs,   6. Austria
forest loss, endangered species,       7. Netherlands
pesticide use, etc.)                   8. Italy
                                       9. United Kingdom
                                       10. Finland
                                       11. New Zealand
                                       12. Korea
                                       13. Spain
                                       14. Japan
                                       ...
                                       24. Canada
                                       25. United States
Is it ...?
• An economy that generates prosperity (wealth)
  with minimal environmental impact
   – i.e. combines economic and environmental success
• Better term: “Green, Prosperous Economy”
• CEC draft plan: “Simultaneously enhancing
  industrial competitiveness and decreasing
  environmental impact.” [GOOD]
• Problem: We don’t have the words to describe
  (simply) this kind of economy, or the metrics to
  measure it.
How Might We Measure Green Prosperity?

Economic Metrics:
• GDP:
  – Current snapshot of economic success
• Global Competitiveness Index
  – Positioning for future economic success
  – 100+ factors: institutions, markets, innovation, etc
Both give little weight to environmental costs
  – e.g depletion of natural capital, pollution
Environment-Economy Metrics
Environment Metrics:
• Ecological Footprint:
   – Nation’s total resource use and pollution (some gaps)
   – Measures impacts from goods consumed (not produced)
      • i.e. Includes a lot of impacts that happen elsewhere
• Environmental Performance Index
   – Measures a country’s environmental outcomes across 10
     categories (air, water, habitat, CO2 etc)
      • i.e. Looks just at environmental performance in that country
 Both ignore economic activity
   – i.e. how much wealth created per environmental impact
Environment-Economy Indices (2008-9)
                                                       (GDP+CGI)
Country          GDP   GCI   EPI       EF    EPI+CGI
                                                        +(EPI+EF)
Switzerland       3     2     1        95       1          1
Sweden           12     4     2        96       2          2
Norway            1    15     3        106      4          3
Finland          15     6     4        98       3          4
Germany          16     7     13       84       6          5
Austria           7    14     6        94       5          6
Netherlands       5     8     55       85       24         7
France           17    16     10       93       9          8
United Kingdom   13    12     14       99       8          9
Japan            18     9     21       92       11         10
Canada            8    10     12       107       7         11
South Korea      24    13     51       81       26         12
Ireland           4    22     34       104      16         13
Belgium          14    19     57       97       30         14
United States     2     1     39       112      13         15
Malaysia         43    21     26        59      14         16
Denmark          11     3     25       110      10         17
Slovenia         22    42     15        87      17         18
Israel           23    23     49       91       28         19
Slovakia         30    46     17       73       23         20

Mexico           40    60     47       75       42         44

                             Source: Sustainable Prosperity (2010)
Possible Green Prosperity Metrics
• Blending all 4 may be best metric. Shows:
  – Current (GDP) and future (GCI) economic strength;
    domestic (EPI) and ‘externalized’ (EF) env’t’l effects

• No perfect metric exists: a work-in-progress
• Alternative metric: Natural Capital Productivity
  - Environment/resource impact per unit economic output
  - Challenges: (a) Getting data; (b) Weighting different
   environmental impacts (e.g. GHG vs nuclear waste)
Natural Capital Productivity (EU)
($ produced per ton of environment/resource impact)




                               Source: Van der Voet et al (2005)
‘Decoupling’ Economic Growth and
Environmental / Resource Impact (EU)
Comparing (Green) Apples to Apples
• All measure at national, aggregated level
   – But countries’ economic structures differ
      Favours countries with less natural
       resource or heavy manufacturing industry
   – Does not compare apples to apples
• Ideal approach: Compare eco-efficiency of like
  sectors across countries
   – natural capital productivity (sector-based comparison)
• None of these include social and equity factors
   - Could compare against Human Development Index
3. How to Get There:
       Policies for Green Prosperity
• Goal: Pull private investment into
  greener products, processes, and
  services
• The KEY is putting a price on
  environmental costs & benefits
   – To correct “world’s greatest
      market failure” (Stern)
• Information and voluntary efforts
  help, but usu. much smaller factor
“Getting the Price Right”

The most important factor in the effective pursuit of
sustainable development is ‘getting the price right’. Unless
prices are assigned to air, water, and land resources that
presently serve as cost-free receptacles for the waste
products of society, resources will tend to be used
inefficiently and environmental pollution will increase.
- World Business Council on Sustainable Development
Coal vs Wind Power Price
                              Current Base Costs
                            Base Power Cost


             14

             12

             10
Cost / KWH




             8
                                                     Base Power Cost
             6

             4

             2

             0
                  Coal                        Wind
Coal vs Wind Power Price
                         with Env’t and Health Costs
             20
             18
             16
             14
Cost / KWH




             12                           Health Costs
             10                           Env't costs (CO2=25$/T)

             8                            Base Cost

             6
             4
             2

             0
                  Coal            Wind
Policy Mix for Green Econ. Transition
• Pricing Env’t / Resources           ) Ramp-up.
   – Green taxes, emission trading    ) Pull in private $s
• Government subsidies
   –   Eliminate ‘bad’ subsidies      )   Transitional.
   –   Green subsidies / incentives   )   (Price surrogate)
   –   Green investments / loans      )   Ramp down as
   –   Green procurement              )   price ramps up,
   –   Regulate (renew. portfolio)    )   private $s grow.
• Green Infrastructure, R & D        ) Ongoing
• Policy stability is KEY (for investment)
Policies for Green Econ. Transition
Green Economy Investment $s




                                <- Public $ kick-start -> <-Private $ take over->
Environmental Pricing can Work
  - EU Experience (Tax Shifting)-




                      Source: COMETR study (2007)
Use of Green Taxes and Fees
Revenues from environmental taxes / fees
     per cent of total tax revenue (OECD)

                                             Use of Green Taxes
                                              (vs. OECD peers)

                                            Country         Rank
                                            Mexico          28
                                            Canada          29
                                            United States   31
Percentage of stimulus $s dedicated to green spending

                  90


                  80


                  70


                  60
Percentage (%)




                  50


                  40


                  30


                  20


                  10


                   0
                       South   China   Australia   France   Britain   Germany   United   South    Mexico   Canada   Spain   Japan   Italy
                       Korea                                                    States   Africa
4. What Can the CEC Do? Options..
• Report on Green Prosperity performance
  of NAFTA countries (benchmarked globally)
• Which metric?
   – 4 factor blend (data is there)
   – NC productivity (add N.A. into EU analysis)
• Sector-specific?
   – Maybe pick certain sectors for case studies
     (e.g. auto, paper, oil, agriculture) [stage 2?]
 Identify key factors/variables for ‘greening economy’
  [stage 2?]
North America could build a
stronger, greener economy,
if the right incentives
are put in place.
Stewart Elgie Presentation - Commission for Environmental Cooperation: Greening the Economy in North America November 2010
Or is it ...?
• Growth in market share of
  “green” sectors or products?
• This focuses more on what you
  make (green stuff) vs. how you
  make it (low impact)
• Problem: Hard to define what is
  ‘green’ sector or product
  – e.g. recycled steel, clean coal
    power, hi-mileage truck, etc?
Reg. vs Voluntary: Carbon Market (‘09)
Stewart Elgie Presentation - Commission for Environmental Cooperation: Greening the Economy in North America November 2010
Low-Carbon Energy Markets
Change?
“Green “ consumers?   “Green “ supply chains?

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Stewart Elgie Presentation - Commission for Environmental Cooperation: Greening the Economy in North America November 2010

  • 1. A Green Economy: What is it, and how to get there Professor Stewart Elgie University of Ottawa, Faculty of Law, and Institute of Environment Chair, Sustainable Prosperity Research-Policy Network
  • 2. What I’m Going To Say 1. WHY do we need a Green Economy? 2. WHAT is a Green Economy? 3. HOW to get there? 4. WHAT can the CEC do?
  • 3. 1. Why Do We Need a Green Economy? Environmental and Economic reasons
  • 4. We’re Using Up the Earth’s Resources “More than 60% of the Earth’s ecosystem services are being degraded or used unsustainably” Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005)
  • 7. Forest Loss Today 8,000 Years Ago
  • 8. Vanishing Species The IUCN Red List for All Bird Species
  • 9. Growing Economic Opportunity Renewable Energy Investment
  • 13. So Building a Green(er) Economy is ... Ecologically essential and Economically smart
  • 14. 2. What is a “Green Economy”?
  • 15. What is a “Green Economy”? UNEP: “A Green Economy can be defined as an economy that results in improved human well- being and reduced inequalities over the long term, while not exposing future generations to significant environmental risks and ecological scarcities”. ??
  • 16. Is it ... • An economy that minimizes its environmental impacts? • By that measure, the ‘greenest’ economies are 1. East Timor 2. Bangladesh 3. Malawi 4. Haiti (lowest ecological footprints per capita)
  • 17. Ecological Footprint and GDP per capita 10.0 Ecological Footpring per cap 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 GDP/cap (I$)
  • 18. North American Economy not very ‘Green’ Environmental Performance (OECD) Overall country ranking Source: Gunton et al., Simon 1. Denmark Fraser University (2010) 2.Sweden (Based on 28 environmental 3. Norway 4. Switzerland performance indicators, e.g.: 5. Germany pollution (air, water), waste, GHGs, 6. Austria forest loss, endangered species, 7. Netherlands pesticide use, etc.) 8. Italy 9. United Kingdom 10. Finland 11. New Zealand 12. Korea 13. Spain 14. Japan ... 24. Canada 25. United States
  • 19. Is it ...? • An economy that generates prosperity (wealth) with minimal environmental impact – i.e. combines economic and environmental success • Better term: “Green, Prosperous Economy” • CEC draft plan: “Simultaneously enhancing industrial competitiveness and decreasing environmental impact.” [GOOD] • Problem: We don’t have the words to describe (simply) this kind of economy, or the metrics to measure it.
  • 20. How Might We Measure Green Prosperity? Economic Metrics: • GDP: – Current snapshot of economic success • Global Competitiveness Index – Positioning for future economic success – 100+ factors: institutions, markets, innovation, etc Both give little weight to environmental costs – e.g depletion of natural capital, pollution
  • 21. Environment-Economy Metrics Environment Metrics: • Ecological Footprint: – Nation’s total resource use and pollution (some gaps) – Measures impacts from goods consumed (not produced) • i.e. Includes a lot of impacts that happen elsewhere • Environmental Performance Index – Measures a country’s environmental outcomes across 10 categories (air, water, habitat, CO2 etc) • i.e. Looks just at environmental performance in that country  Both ignore economic activity – i.e. how much wealth created per environmental impact
  • 22. Environment-Economy Indices (2008-9) (GDP+CGI) Country GDP GCI EPI EF EPI+CGI +(EPI+EF) Switzerland 3 2 1 95 1 1 Sweden 12 4 2 96 2 2 Norway 1 15 3 106 4 3 Finland 15 6 4 98 3 4 Germany 16 7 13 84 6 5 Austria 7 14 6 94 5 6 Netherlands 5 8 55 85 24 7 France 17 16 10 93 9 8 United Kingdom 13 12 14 99 8 9 Japan 18 9 21 92 11 10 Canada 8 10 12 107 7 11 South Korea 24 13 51 81 26 12 Ireland 4 22 34 104 16 13 Belgium 14 19 57 97 30 14 United States 2 1 39 112 13 15 Malaysia 43 21 26 59 14 16 Denmark 11 3 25 110 10 17 Slovenia 22 42 15 87 17 18 Israel 23 23 49 91 28 19 Slovakia 30 46 17 73 23 20 Mexico 40 60 47 75 42 44 Source: Sustainable Prosperity (2010)
  • 23. Possible Green Prosperity Metrics • Blending all 4 may be best metric. Shows: – Current (GDP) and future (GCI) economic strength; domestic (EPI) and ‘externalized’ (EF) env’t’l effects • No perfect metric exists: a work-in-progress • Alternative metric: Natural Capital Productivity - Environment/resource impact per unit economic output - Challenges: (a) Getting data; (b) Weighting different environmental impacts (e.g. GHG vs nuclear waste)
  • 24. Natural Capital Productivity (EU) ($ produced per ton of environment/resource impact) Source: Van der Voet et al (2005)
  • 25. ‘Decoupling’ Economic Growth and Environmental / Resource Impact (EU)
  • 26. Comparing (Green) Apples to Apples • All measure at national, aggregated level – But countries’ economic structures differ  Favours countries with less natural resource or heavy manufacturing industry – Does not compare apples to apples • Ideal approach: Compare eco-efficiency of like sectors across countries – natural capital productivity (sector-based comparison) • None of these include social and equity factors - Could compare against Human Development Index
  • 27. 3. How to Get There: Policies for Green Prosperity • Goal: Pull private investment into greener products, processes, and services • The KEY is putting a price on environmental costs & benefits – To correct “world’s greatest market failure” (Stern) • Information and voluntary efforts help, but usu. much smaller factor
  • 28. “Getting the Price Right” The most important factor in the effective pursuit of sustainable development is ‘getting the price right’. Unless prices are assigned to air, water, and land resources that presently serve as cost-free receptacles for the waste products of society, resources will tend to be used inefficiently and environmental pollution will increase. - World Business Council on Sustainable Development
  • 29. Coal vs Wind Power Price Current Base Costs Base Power Cost 14 12 10 Cost / KWH 8 Base Power Cost 6 4 2 0 Coal Wind
  • 30. Coal vs Wind Power Price with Env’t and Health Costs 20 18 16 14 Cost / KWH 12 Health Costs 10 Env't costs (CO2=25$/T) 8 Base Cost 6 4 2 0 Coal Wind
  • 31. Policy Mix for Green Econ. Transition • Pricing Env’t / Resources ) Ramp-up. – Green taxes, emission trading ) Pull in private $s • Government subsidies – Eliminate ‘bad’ subsidies ) Transitional. – Green subsidies / incentives ) (Price surrogate) – Green investments / loans ) Ramp down as – Green procurement ) price ramps up, – Regulate (renew. portfolio) ) private $s grow. • Green Infrastructure, R & D ) Ongoing • Policy stability is KEY (for investment)
  • 32. Policies for Green Econ. Transition Green Economy Investment $s <- Public $ kick-start -> <-Private $ take over->
  • 33. Environmental Pricing can Work - EU Experience (Tax Shifting)- Source: COMETR study (2007)
  • 34. Use of Green Taxes and Fees Revenues from environmental taxes / fees per cent of total tax revenue (OECD) Use of Green Taxes (vs. OECD peers) Country Rank Mexico 28 Canada 29 United States 31
  • 35. Percentage of stimulus $s dedicated to green spending 90 80 70 60 Percentage (%) 50 40 30 20 10 0 South China Australia France Britain Germany United South Mexico Canada Spain Japan Italy Korea States Africa
  • 36. 4. What Can the CEC Do? Options.. • Report on Green Prosperity performance of NAFTA countries (benchmarked globally) • Which metric? – 4 factor blend (data is there) – NC productivity (add N.A. into EU analysis) • Sector-specific? – Maybe pick certain sectors for case studies (e.g. auto, paper, oil, agriculture) [stage 2?]  Identify key factors/variables for ‘greening economy’ [stage 2?]
  • 37. North America could build a stronger, greener economy, if the right incentives are put in place.
  • 39. Or is it ...? • Growth in market share of “green” sectors or products? • This focuses more on what you make (green stuff) vs. how you make it (low impact) • Problem: Hard to define what is ‘green’ sector or product – e.g. recycled steel, clean coal power, hi-mileage truck, etc?
  • 40. Reg. vs Voluntary: Carbon Market (‘09)
  • 43. Change? “Green “ consumers? “Green “ supply chains?