Presented by Daniel Archard, this presentation explains the development of an evidence base for a renewable infrastructure framework.

1. Developing the renewable energy
evidence base
Presenter’s name: Daniel Archard
Presented to: Renewables Infrastructure Framework workshop
Date: 05/07/2012
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2. Evidence base underpins everything (targets, planning policies, Framework)
• What is your local renewable energy resource?
• How has it been estimated?
• What is the current contribution?
• Are your targets achievable? Which
technologies? What deployment opportunities?
• Are existing policies supporting the right
technologies in the right way?
• Do all relevant players understand their role
and the available opportunities?
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3. Key principles in developing a good baseline
1. Follow Government’s standardised
methodology
2. Use best available and reference-able
data sources
3. Test the evidence base - consult on
approach and data sources (and fill
data gaps)
4. Presenting the evidence base - consult
on findings & how to present findings in
most useful way
5. Communicate widely to all
stakeholders
Has to stand up to scrutiny e.g. planning
inspector at EiP
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4. Renewable energy assessment
• Stages for developing a comprehensive evidence base for
renewable energy potential
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5. Key elements of the baseline data
• Baseline energy demand & projected
future demand
• Mapping growth areas
• Mapping existing renewables
infrastructure
• Renewables resource assessment
• CHP & DH resource assessment (heat
mapping)
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6. Installed renewable energy in East of England
Installed renewable energy in the East of England
400
350
300
250 PV
Municipal and Industrial Waste
Hydro
200
Wind
Sewage gas
150
Landfill gas
Dedicated biomass
100
50
0
Essex Hertforshire Bedfordshire Cambridgeshire Norfolk Suffolk
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7. Calculating the technical potential
• Use current evidence base wherever possible and identify gaps that need to be filled
Technologies include:
• Biomass & EfW
• Wind – GIS mapping of locations where turbines could be located
• Solar (PV and SWH) - number of buildings where panels could be located
• Heat pumps
• Hydro
• Modelling trajectory of new building development to assess microgen growth
• GIS mapping of all outputs
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8. Access to available data is key
GIS data
• OS MasterMap
• OS Address Points
• OS 50k Rasters
• Conservation Areas
• Common land
• LLPG
• SHLAA sites & allocated employment land
• Waste data
• Valuation Office Agency (VAO)
• Dwelling Stock Data from ONS
• DUKES/ energy consumption data
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9. Estimate of technical potential across all technologies
Renewable energy technical potential compared to
Cambridgeshire's energy demand
PV
Wind
Heat
generation Biomass
Heat demand
EfW
Electricity Landfill gas
generation
SWH
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
GWh
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10. Modelling renewable energy deployment potential
Scenario 4
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 (high without
Inputs (low) (medium) (high) wind)
Discount rate 9% 7% 6% 6%
DECC - 'high DECC - 'high
Energy price DECC - 'low' DECC - 'high' high' energy high' energy
[1]
energy prices energy prices prices prices
current rates current rates
(FIT/ RHI (FIT/ RHI
designed to designed to
give fixed give fixed
return & will return & will
Financial lower than adjust to adjust to
incentives current tariff energy energy
(FIT/RHI) rates current rates prices) prices)
Project
deployment
rate
(wind/biomas 30% (0% for
s/EfW) 8% 15% 30% wind)
Green policy
support (for
building
integrated
technologies) Low Medium High High
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11. Clearly documented, organised, referenced analysis
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12. Producing a relevant & useful evidence base
• Communicating the renewable potential:
– installed capacity (MW)
– Generation potential (MWh)
– CO2 savings
– % energy demand
– Infrastructure
– Geographical resolution
• Other influencing factors:
– off gas areas: high potential for renewable heat
(space, economics & carbon savings)
– district heating networks viable in higher density
urban areas (identify areas over this minimum
threshold)
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13. Producing a relevant & useful evidence base
• Where does the resource lie?
– which technologies, which
locations?
• Who has control over delivery?
– In which assets, buildings & land
does the resource lie?
– by developing the resource
‘bottom-up’, the delivery pathways
can be identified & quantified
– how much of the deployable
resource is under control of public
sector, suitable for community
groups, commercial delivery?
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14. Example output – off gas areas
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15. Example output – heat map
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16. Renewable energy deployment potential for Cambridgeshire
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17. Substantial infrastructure is needed
Number of installations associated with delivery of each scenario
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18. Significant investment opportunity
Investment potential for each scenario in £millions
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05/07/2012 Developing the renewable energy evidence base

19. CRIF delivery pathways
Deployment potential by pathway
1600
1400
Deployment potential (GWh)
Wind >=6 turbines
1200
Wind <=5 turbines
1000
Biomass
800
ASHP
600
GSHP
400
SWH
200
PV
0
Public sector Community Commercial
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20. What does the evidence base tell you?
• Investment potential - e.g. £6 Billion potential in
Cambridgeshire
• Scale of infrastructure -
• Resource potential – identifies which
technologies have the potential.
– Why focus investment on the lower
potential, less cost effective technologies
for your area?
• Common platform of information enables
investment planning and key delivery partners
to come together
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21. Developing the renewable
energy evidence base
Presenter’s name: Daniel Archard
Presented to: Renewables Infrastructure Framework event
Date: 05/07/2012
p.21
Energy and carbon advisory services www.vercoglobal.com