3. Goals-Based Asset Allocation
A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy
Asset allocation is the cornerstone of sound investment strategy. Unfortunately, too many times, the asset allocation
process involves complicated risk analysis with little concern for your goals or real investment requirements. In
traditional asset allocation, risk is measured by annualized standard deviation, though most investors do not define
personal investment risk in this way. For that reason, standard deviation is not always a good measure of an investor’s
intuitive risk tolerance. An asset allocation approach solely based on standard deviation may lead to inappropriate
investment strategies because it fails to take an investor’s unique goals into consideration. A goals-based approach to
risk tolerance can lead to investment strategies that are better suited to your specific wealth goals and behavioral
finance risk tolerances.1
Traditional asset allocation is based on asset class optimiza- achieve tangible goals, such as paying for children’s education,
tion. It asks the question: how can different asset classes be making charitable contributions, or funding retirement.
combined to make the return-to-risk relationship as favorable Looking at the greater picture, which includes your wealth
as possible? Note that there is no reference to client goals. objectives and goals-based risk tolerance, can lead to a much
A goals-based approach takes into account a client’s unique more satisfying asset allocation and investment strategy.
definition of risk, required return, and success. An investor’s
broader satisfaction is based on more than the return/risk
Asset Allocation—A Review
relationship.
Asset allocation is the process of combining different
This report takes a different approach. We want to use the
investment vehicles into a portfolio that addresses an
sophisticated science of Modern Portfolio Theory and
investor’s risk and return requirements. Traditional asset
mathematical optimization, but within a context that is
allocation involves determining an investor’s risk tolerance,
focused on your unique investment goals. At Wells Fargo
and then—based on that—finding the investment mix that
Private Client Services (PCS), we take a client-centric or
has the greatest potential for return. This is done through an
goals-based approach to developing your investment
optimization process, which maximizes the return-to-risk
strategy. By focusing on your investment goals, we can create
relationship. Let’s review the fundamentals of asset allocation
an investment strategy tailored to your specific wealth needs.
before addressing goals-based vs. risk-based optimization.
Identifying desired return, minimum acceptable return, and
investment time frame leads to an asset allocation designed The asset allocation process starts with capital market
for your financial goals with a more realistic risk tolerance than assumptions for each asset class that is available in your
traditional standard deviation analysis. investable universe. These assumptions are not intended to
predict the future but rather, to put in perspective realistic
This process relies on you, the investor, being able to articulate
expectations of potential investment risk and return traits.
the real needs you have for your investment portfolio.
The capital market assumptions include hypothetical return,
Satisfaction generally does not come from simply maximizing
hypothetical risk, and correlation. Return is measured as
return or minimizing risk. A study of behavioral finance
annualized total return, with risk measured by annualized
revealed that investors are not focused on statistics to define
standard deviation of returns. The correlations measure how
investment satisfaction.1 In fact, few clients articulate risk in
much diversification you get by adding a specific asset
terms of annualized standard deviations. Investors tend to
class to the existing mix. A low correlation helps to add
think of risk in terms of minimum wealth level or probability of
diversification and reduce total portfolio risk.
losing money. True satisfaction comes from having a portfolio
1
Wells Fargo Special Report, Asset Allocation for Real World Investors, 2006
Goals-Based Asset Allocation—A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy | 1
4. The Wells Fargo PCS Asset Allocation Team has developed a Prudent Efficient Frontiers
set of capital market assumptions. Below is a table that high-
Each of the two efficient frontiers represents a different
lights our multiple market-cycle (10–15 years) expectations for
investable universe. The more diverse the universe, the better
selected asset classes.
the risk/return tradeoffs available to the investor. Additionally,
Selected Capital Market Assumptions different clients have other efficient frontiers due to the
unique restrictions or constraints they have put on their
Hypothetical
Risk investment portfolios. These restrictions may be cash
Hypothetical (Standard Sharpe requirements, concentrated stock holdings, social investing
Asset Class Return Deviation [%]) Ratio* requirements, or other investment concerns. Our two efficient
Inflation 2.75 — — frontiers represent portfolios with and without alternative
Intermediate-Term 5.00 5.50 0.32 investments,2 which are defined as hedge funds,3 private
Taxable Bonds equity, real estate, and commodities. Your specific efficient
Long-Term Taxable Bonds 5.75 8.25 0.30 frontier will be different, depending on the restrictions that
you require. We call this a “prudent efficient frontier.”
U.S. Large Cap Core 8.75 15.00 0.37
International Developed 9.00 15.50 0.37 Now that we have established an efficient frontier, we need to
Markets Equity determine where your appropriate portfolio lies along this
Commodities 8.75 14.50 0.38 frontier. The risk-based approach uses a risk-tolerance
questionnaire designed to assess your attitudes toward risk.
* The Sharpe ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted returns: The profilers come in many forms, but generally they include
hypothetical return – hypothetical risk-free rate 10-15 questions addressing your attitude toward capital loss,
hypothetical standard deviation
volatility, and liquidity needs. Your responses are scored on a
Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06 risk-tolerance scale, and you are assigned a risk range, defined
by annualized standard deviation of returns.
By using an optimization process, we can combine these
Efficient Frontier Analysis
asset classes into “efficient portfolios.” Efficiency is defined
as maximizing hypothetical return, given each level of 10
Two-Asset Groups
hypothetical risk. The set of these portfolios along the risk Four-Asset Groups
spectrum represent the efficient frontier. The chart below 9
shows the two efficient frontiers that Wells Fargo PCS uses for
8
developing asset allocation strategies.
Return (%)
Efficient Frontier Analysis 7
10 6
Two-Asset Groups
Four-Asset Groups
9 5
8 4
4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Return (%)
7 Standard Deviation (%)
Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06
6
On the efficient frontier above, your sample risk tolerance
5
range is highlighted. Your optimal strategic asset allocation is
generally represented by the portfolio that falls in the middle
4
4 6 8 10 12 14 16 of this risk range. While the risk-based optimization approach
Standard Deviation (%) is very effective in maximizing the risk-return relationship, it
Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06 may not address your specific investment goals or goals-
based risk tolerance. Interestingly, many investors have a
significant disconnect between their attitudes toward risk and
the return requirements of their investment portfolios.
2
Some alternative investments may be available for pre-qualified investors only.
3
Hedge funds are available for accredited investors only.
Goals-Based Asset Allocation—A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy | 2
5. One of the biggest problems facing investors is emotional risk. Today, the portfolio is worth $160,000, and your asset allocation is:
When things go bad, investors often make short-term
Original Portfolio
decisions that can be detrimental to the long-term success of
the portfolio. When markets go down because of short-term International
Emerging-Markets
trading reactions, some investors sell and wait for the rebound. Equity 5%
This is classic market timing of selling low and buying high. On International
the flip side, investors have been known to pile assets into the Developed-Markets
Equity 20%
”theme du jour” for fear of missing the party, while knowing U.S. Large Cap 55%
that all rational valuation measures tell them not to. Because U.S. Small Cap 8%
this usually occurs just before a very painful correction,
investors end up buying high and selling low. The goals-based U.S. Mid Cap 12%
approach reduces the chance that short-term emotions will
derail your long-term strategy because it focuses on long-term Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06
goals rather than short-term market swings.
By using a goals-based approach, you can reduce the chances In taking a goals-based approach to developing your investment
of this disconnect between risk tolerance, potential invest- strategy, a disconnect between the risk you are taking and the
ment return, and investment goals. Following are hypothetical risk you need to take becomes obvious. You have stated that
scenarios that use a goals-based optimization approach to this portfolio’s value needs to be $200,000 in four years. Given
develop asset allocation and investment strategies. its current value of $160,000, the required annual rate of return
to achieve your goal is about 5.75%. You also noted that your
minimum acceptable return is 0%, or no loss of principal.
Hypothetical Goal: Education
Using our efficient frontier chart below, you see that you are
Your daughter has just started her freshman year in high taking much more risk than is necessary to achieve your goal.
school, reminding you that her college tuition bills will start in Why is this bad? Because risk has two sides: an upside and a
just four years. You have been saving and investing in a 529 downside. More risk means more chance for both. If you
plan in anticipation of this responsibility. In speaking with your experience downside risk in the next four years, there is not
financial professional and planner, you have determined that enough time to recover the losses before your daughter starts
you will need about $200,000 in four years to cover her total college. Why take unnecessary risk?
college costs.
Efficient Frontier Analysis
You’re a long-time investor and are comfortable with a
10
moderately high level of risk in your investment portfolios. Original Portfolio
In the past few years, the markets have performed well,
9
increasing the value of your riskier investments. You would like
to achieve the $200,000 value, but don’t want to lose a lot of
8
money, as you don’t have much time to recoup losses. You
Return (%)
also know that any shortfall at this point can be addressed 7 Risk-Based
through student loans.
6 Suggested Portfolio
Investment Goal: Education Education
Goal-Based
5
Stated Risk Tolerance High
Goals-Based Risk Requirement Low 4
4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Required Return 5.75%
Standard Deviation (%)
Minimum Acceptable Return 0.00% Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06
Investment Time Frame 4–8 years
The risk of a portfolio designed with the potential return goal
of 5.75% is significantly lower than the current risk in your
portfolio, and has an average expected return in line with the
$200,000 goal. Because of the lower level of risk of this
portfolio, there is less of a chance of falling below your
minimum acceptable return.
Goals-Based Asset Allocation—A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy | 3
6. By optimizing for your goal, we are able to develop the To achieve your goal of $300,000, you’ll need about 13.50% of
asset allocation below, which is designed to achieve your annual return. Our efficient frontier chart below shows that
investment objective, while reducing the chance of failure this is an extremely ambitious return goal for a portfolio,
defined by your goals-based risk tolerance. This is the power especially with the relatively short investment time frame.
of goals-based optimization. Though a portfolio may achieve this return level in some
years, requiring this return year after year is probably
Education Goal-Based Suggestion
unreasonable. There is a good chance that a portfolio will not
High-Yield Bonds 8% U.S. Large Cap 11% grow to the required size. In this case, you need to re-evaluate
U.S. Mid Cap 2% your goal. Adjustments can be made to either the size of the
Long-Term Bonds 12% U.S. Small Cap 2%
International
cabin, or the timing of the construction. Either approach can
Developed-Markets reduce the required return to the portfolio. The goals-based
Equity 4%
International approach highlights how realistic the goal is in relation to the
Emerging-Markets
Equity 1% investment opportunities available.
Intermediate-Term
Bonds 45% Short-Term
Bonds 15% Efficient Frontier Analysis
14 Goal-Based Requirement
Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06 13
Two-Asset Groups
12 Four-Asset Groups
All portfolios have uncertainty. For this reason, you need to 11
meet with your financial professional regularly to review and 10
monitor your portfolio’s actual performance, any change in 9
your goals, and rebalancing actions that are required.
8
Return (%)
7
Hypothetical Goal: Vacation Home 6
You spent many happy days camping out in a tent in the 5
mountains as a child. When you retire you’d like to relive the 4
4 6 8 10 12 14 16
experience, but with a more substantial kind of lodging—a Standard Deviation (%)
vacation cabin. You estimate that in six years it will cost about
Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06
$300,000 to construct a comfortable cabin on a piece of land
that’s been in your family for a long time. You have $140,000
set aside so far. You don’t need the money until you start Hypothetical Goal: Philanthropic Distributions
construction, so you can tolerate illiquidity and short-term Your family has achieved financial success and you wish to
loss. This indicates an above-average risk tolerance. How share your good fortune through philanthropic activities. You
should you invest your $140,000? have set up a family foundation with $5 million. The goal is to
Investment Goal: Vacation Home maintain distributions and expenses equal to 5% of the
market value every year, in perpetuity. You want your family to
Stated Risk Tolerance Average enjoy the benefits and share in the responsibilities of wealth
Goals-Based Risk Requirement High management for generations to come, and the family
foundation is a wonderful vehicle to achieve your wealth
Required Return 13.50%
planning goals.
Minimum Acceptable Return 13.50%
Because the assets placed in the foundation are for charitable
Investment Time Frame 6 years
causes, you don’t want to take much investment risk with this
portfolio. Your minimum acceptable return is 5%, which will
cover the annual distributions from the foundation. A return
below that level would cause concern.
Goals-Based Asset Allocation—A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy | 4
7. You have the money invested in a lower-risk allocation as Philanthropic Goal-Based Suggestion
shown below:
Real Estate—
Hedge Funds— Public REITs 2.5%
Original Portfolio Aggressive** 3%
Real Estate—
Hedge Funds— Private REITs* 2.5%
Conservative** 2%
High-Yield Bonds 6% Private Equity* 2%
U.S. Large Cap 21% U.S. Large Cap 27%
Long-Term Bonds 9% Commodities 3%
U.S. Mid Cap 5% High-Yield Bonds 4%
Long-Term Bonds 3% U.S. Mid Cap 5%
U.S. Small Cap 3%
U.S. Small Cap 4%
Intermediate-Term International
Bonds 37% Developed-Markets International
Equity 8% Intermediate-Term
Developed-Markets
Bonds 20% Equity 15%
International
Emerging-Markets Short-Term Bonds 3% International
Short-Term Bonds 9% Equity 2% Emerging-Markets
Equity 4%
Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06
* Some alternative investments may be available for pre-qualified
investors only.
As our efficient frontier chart to the right indicates, the **Hedge funds are available for accredited investors only.
hypothetical return of this portfolio is projected to be about Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06
6.8%. Let’s determine if this is consistent with your investment
goals. Your goal is for distributions and expenses to be 5%
annually, and to maintain this for perpetuity. To accomplish Efficient Frontier Analysis
this, you must generate 5%, plus keep up with inflation. 10
Calculating the required return for your foundation shows
the following: 9
Philanthropic Goal-Based
Distributions and Administrative Expenses 5.00% 8 Suggested Portfolio
Inflation 2.75%
Return (%)
Total Required Return 7.75% 7
Original Portfolio
Investment Goal: Philanthropic Distributions 6
Stated Risk Tolerance Low 5 Risk-Based
Goals-Based Risk Requirement Moderate
4
Required Return 7.75% 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Minimum Acceptable Return 5.00% Standard Deviation (%)
Investment Time Frame Perpetual Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06
Your current risk tolerance does not allow for a portfolio with A scenario analysis reveals that this portfolio, despite its higher
adequate growth opportunities to accomplish your stated risk, has a reduced probability of falling below your minimum
goals. Using your goals as a basis for optimization, we see that acceptable return of 5%. This portfolio is well diversified,
the following allocation, with an 8.14% hypothetical return is which helps to control overall risk, but still focused on
more appropriate: investment growth. The hypothetical return is slightly higher
than your goal, which allows for some level of uncertainty in
the returns. This provides a better opportunity for your
investment goals to be achieved over multiple generations.
A goals-based approach has better aligned the investment
strategy of the foundation with your philanthropic goals.
Goals-Based Asset Allocation—A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy | 5
8. Hypothetical Goal: Wonderful Retirement By looking at your efficient frontier from a goals-based stand-
point, we determine that a balanced portfolio is appropriate for
You and your husband have worked hard and saved for
your investment requirements:
retirement. You met while working at the same company, and
your investments are dominated by the company stock. It has Efficient Frontier Analysis
done well over the years, and it does pay a dividend, but you
10
know that the risk of having all of your eggs in one basket is
not appropriate. The assets are in tax-deferred vehicles, both 9
401(k) and IRA accounts, so diversifying the assets should not
incur any tax liabilities.4 8
Retirement Goal-Based
Suggested Portfolio
The current value of the portfolio is $1,500,000. Your intent is to
Return (%)
7
have this portfolio supplement your pension and Social Security
benefits. Working with your wealth planning specialist, you
6
determine that a 4% withdrawal rate, equaling about $60,000
adjusted for inflation annually, is sustainable. You also feel that 5
the portfolio’s performance should at least cover the 4%
withdrawal, making 4% your minimum acceptable return. 4
4 6 8 10 12 14 16
What investment strategy is appropriate for this portfolio? Standard Deviation (%)
You know that the current concentration in company stock Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06
is not prudent. You and your husband are both 63 years old
and starting retirement, so you are nervous about risk. A Balanced Portfolio Suggestion
long time horizon of 30 years or more is not unrealistic. Let’s
Hedge Funds—
take a goals-based approach to determine the appropriate Aggressive** 2% Real Estate—
Public REITs 3%
investment strategy. The required return is calculated as follows: Hedge Funds—
Real Estate—
Conservative** 4%
Private REITs* 2%
Private Equity* 2%
Distribution Requirement 4.00% U.S. Large Cap 20%
Commodities 2%
Inflation 2.75% High-Yield Bonds 5%
Administrative Expenses 0.75% Long-Term Bonds 3% U.S. Mid Cap 4%
U.S. Small Cap 3%
Total Required Return 7.50%
International
Intermediate-Term Developed-Markets
Investment Goal: Wonderful Retirement Bonds 28% Equity 12%
International
Emerging-Markets
Stated Risk Tolerance Low Short-Term Bonds 7% Equity 3%
Goals-Based Risk Requirement Moderate
* Some alternative investments may be available for pre-qualified
Required Return 7.50% investors only.
Minimum Acceptable Return 4.00% **Hedge funds are available for accredited investors only.
Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06
Investment Time Frame 10–40 years
This investment strategy provides sufficient liquidity to satisfy
your 4% annual distribution, along with growth opportunities
to provide assets throughout your retirement. The diversified
asset allocation controls risk much better than your
concentration in the company stock. Statistical analysis shows
that this portfolio has a lower probability of falling below the
4% minimum required return. This is important in retirement,
because you do not have the same opportunity to overcome
loss as you did while working. This goals-based approach
has provided you with an investment strategy that meets
both short-term cash flow needs and longer-term growth
requirements in a well diversified allocation.
4
Wells Fargo & Company cannot provide tax advice. Please consult your tax advisor to determine how this information may apply to your own situation.
Goals-Based Asset Allocation—A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy | 6
9. Goals-Based Optimization and Asset Allocation Every investment portfolio has some level of uncertainty. Also,
capital markets don’t always behave as expected. As a result,
Successful investing requires a multi-faceted approach. Risk
you and your financial professional need to have regular
tolerance alone does not provide enough information to
monitoring and reviewing discussions. You need to review
develop a comprehensive investment strategy. Focusing solely
your desired goals, minimum acceptable return requirements,
on return may lead to a strategy with inappropriate levels of
and minimum wealth levels. If your goals change, your target
risk, given your cash-flow, liquidity, or time-horizon require-
asset allocation should be adjusted to accommodate these
ments. To maximize the probability of having a successful
changes. Your portfolio needs to be monitored to determine
investment portfolio, you need to address risk and return,
how different your target strategy is from your actual
along with cash flow, liquidity, and tax efficiency.5 A behavioral
investment mix, and if you need to rebalance your portfolio.
finance approach to risk tolerance uses a minimum acceptable
These regular meetings are a critical component for successful
return or minimum wealth target to articulate risk, as opposed
goals-based strategy analysis.
to a traditional standard deviation (volatility) range.
Maximizing returns is not the goal for truly successful investors.
Your success is measured by achieving the required return to
meet your investment goals, while controlling risk. Risk toler-
ance is commonly associated with a minimum wealth level,
as opposed to a pure volatility measure. You must be able to
articulate your goals, not only in terms of total return, but also
your cash flow, liquidity, and time-horizon requirements. By
thoroughly analyzing your comprehensive investment goals,
you are able to develop an investment strategy that addresses
all of your needs. A goals-based optimization approach to
asset allocation can lead to a customized strategy designed
for your unique investment objectives.
What can you do today to start developing a goals-based
strategy for your wealth? In talking with your Wells Fargo PCS
financial professional, there are three steps to follow:
1. Develop a plan. Articulate what your goals are and assign
an appropriate time frame to each goal. If you have only
one or two goals, you probably need to be more thorough.
2. Create an investment policy statement. Work with your
financial professional to create an investment policy
statement that will serve as a complete road map for your
wealth plan.
3. Measure success over time. Determine appropriate
benchmarks based on your goals (not necessarily based
on industry standards like the S&P 500), and measure your
portfolio’s performance against this customized benchmark.
5
Wells Fargo & Company cannot provide tax advice. Please consult your tax advisor to determine how this information may apply to your own situation.
Goals-Based Asset Allocation—A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy | 7