Slides from the STEPS Centre seminar of Kate Raworth, Senior Research at Oxfam. 10 October 2012.

1. Can we create
a safe and just space
for humanity ?
Kate Raworth, Senior Researcher, Oxfam
STEPS Centre IDS
10 October 2012

2. The Long View on commodity prices

3. The Long View on commodity prices

4. The Really Long View on well-being

5. Nine planetary boundaries
Source: Rockström et al 2009

7. Understanding the human body
France, 14th century

8. Understanding the human body Understanding Planet Earth
France, 14th century Everywhere, 21st century

9. Transgressing planetary boundaries
Source: Oxfam based on Rockström et al 2009

10. Resource stress Resource scarcity

11. Resource stress Resource scarcity
What outlook for people living in poverty?
Land grabs Food price crises Water scarcity Energy poverty

12. A safe operating space for humanity

13. A safe and just space for humanity

14. Doughnut dynamics

15. Doughnut dynamics

16. Doughnut dynamics

17. A safe and just space for humanity

18. Falling far below the social foundation

19. Ending poverty: no pressure on the planet
End income poverty for all:
0.2% of global income
End hunger for all:
3% of global food supply
Electricity for all:
1% of global CO2 emissions

20. Who’s putting pressure on the planet ?
50% of CO2 emissions 33% of nitrogen ‘budget’
produced by 11% of people used to produce meat
for the EU

21. A safe and just space for humanity

25. Green and inclusive growth

26. The promise of economic growth

27. The reality of economic growth to date

28. Inclusive and sustainable economic development
Time to reengineer economic
development
High income
countries
Emerging Low income
economies countries

29. Sustainable development goals

30. Towards Sustainable Development Goals
One set of global goals
• Environment & development
• Targets for every country
• Common but differentiated
responsibilities
Targets focused on:
• Ending social deprivations
• Respecting resource thresholds
• Ensuring social equity
• Raising resource efficiency

31. Join the doughnut debate…
www.oxfamblogs.org/doughnut
@KateRaworth

32. Planetary boundaries:
a safety zone for planetary thresholds

34. Developed countries in the G20: CO2 vs. GDP Growth
150%
CHN
130%
IND
110% Zone 1: IDN
No decoupling
KOR
90% TUR
BRA
Zone 2:
70% Relative decoupling
ARG
-2
7
0
50%
9
1
m
b
u
d
p
n
o
a
c
s
2e
r
AUS
)
t
(
i
30% CAN
ZAF
USA
JPN
10% MEX
ITA
O
w
G
C
n
h
o
r
t
i
GBR
-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400%
-10%
FRA
DEU
-30% Zone 3:
RUS Absolute decoupling
-50%
Growth in GDP, 1991-2007

35. BRICSAMs in the G20: CO2 vs. GDP Growth
150%
CHN
130%
IND
110% Zone 1: IDN
No decoupling
KOR
90% TUR
BRA
Zone 2:
70% Relative decoupling
ARG
-2
7
0
50%
9
1
m
b
u
d
p
n
o
a
c
s
2e
r
AUS
)
t
(
i
30% CAN
ZAF
USA
JPN
10% MEX
ITA
O
w
G
C
n
h
o
r
t
i
GBR
-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400%
-10%
FRA
DEU
-30% Zone 3:
RUS Absolute decoupling
-50%
Growth in GDP, 1991-2007

36. The pressures for economic growth
Jobs, incomes, public goods Repay public and private debts
Tolerance and redistribution No growth = stagnation ?

37. Can your country get into the doughnut?
How has the social foundation progressed
in the last 20 years?
What are the greatest social inequalities?
How has pressure on natural
resources changed over these 20 years?
What and who is causing that stress?
Where is the current economic pathway heading?
What policies and practices could bring this nation
between its social and planetary boundaries?