Report on the State of the Economy at the beginning of 2009 presented to the Washington County (Utah) Economic Summit.

1. Washington County Economic Summit 2009

2. “ In economics, the majority is always wrong.” “The conventional view serves to protect us from the painful job of thinking.” John Kenneth Galbraith

3. Consumer Confidence

4. U.S. Annual Percent Change in Real GDP Fourth Qtr 2007-Third Qtr 2008 compared to the previous four quarters. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. *

5. U.S. Quarterly Percent Change in Real GDP Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Most current four quarters compared Comparative year-ago quarters—up 1.9%

6. “ It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it's a depression when you lose yours.” Harry Truman

9. Employment Change During the Great Depression Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 21% Loss Peak to Trough 27% Loss Peak to Trough

10. U.S. Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Recessionary period as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

11. U.S. Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Recessionary period as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

12. U.S. Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Recessionary period as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

13. U.S. Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Recessionary period as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

14. Recessionary Employment Losses Using Annual Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

15. U.S. Unemployment Rates Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

16. Other National Indicators

17. Other Indicators

18. Year-over Change in Real Manufacturing Sales Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

19. Year-over Change in Real Retail Sales Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Most of the decline in durable goods—particularly motor vehicles.

20. Utah Unemployment Insurance Weeks Claimed Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

21. Utah Insured Unemployment Rate Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

22. Year-over Change in Consumer Price Index (All Urban Consumers) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

23. Year-over Change in Consumer Price Index for Gasoline (All Urban Consumers) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

24. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Female Male Female Male Millions Dominating the Labor Force Worker Vacuum Worker Vacuum Population by Age and Sex: 2005 U.S. Utah Stretching the economy to accommodate new workers Stretching the economy to accommodate new workers

25. Other Indicators

26. Other Indicators

31. “ We have always known that heedless self-interest was bad morals; we now know that it is bad economics.” Franklin Delano Roosevelt

33. “ Men have been swindled by other men on many occasions. The autumn of 1929 was, perhaps, the first occasion when men succeeded on a large scale in swindling themselves.” John Kenneth Galbraith

36. Expectations and the Jobless Recovery Year-over Growth in U.S. Nonfarm Jobs Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. March 19, 2003

37. “ The stock market and economy are two different things.” Milton Friedman

38. Annual Population Change Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee. Washington County Utah

39. Population Change 2007-2008 Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee. In 2007, Washington County was the second-fastest growing county in Utah.

40. Washington County Net Migration Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee.

41. Migration of Washington County Residents Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey.

42. Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs Washington County Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

43. Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs Washington County Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Utah United States

44. Nonfarm Job Growth Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Washington County Utah U.S.

45. Washington County Nonfarm Job Growth Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services. Down roughly 1,900 jobs in 2008—3.5%

46. Washington County Construction Employment Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

47. Washington County Year-Over Change in Construction Employment Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

48. Washington Industry Year-Over Job Change September 2007 Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services .

49. Washington Industry Year-Over Job Change September 2008 Source: Utah Dept of Workforce Services . Down 3,200 jobs total

50. Percent Change in Washington County Nonfarm Jobs by Industry; September 2007 – September 2008 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

51. Washington County New Hires and Separations—Four-Qtr Moving Average Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Local Employment Dynamics Program.

52. Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

53. Annual Unemployment Rates Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S Washington Utah

54. Washington County Private Sector Unemployment Insurance Weeks Claimed with No Earnings – November 2008 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services. Total up 250% from November 2007

55. Growth in Washington County Average Monthly Wage *First two quarters of 2008. Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

56. Washington County Average Monthly Wage As a Percent of State Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services.

57. “ Unfortunately, the hangover may prove to be proportional to the binge.” Warren Buffet

58. Box Elder 1.35% Cache 1.45% Rich Weber 1.78% Tooele 1.87% Salt Lake 1.57% Morgan Summit 0.58% Daggett Utah 1.62% Wasatch 1.99% Duchesne 1.05% Uintah 0.99% Juab 2.2% Sanpete 1.35% Carbon 1.08% Emery 1.18% Grand 1.53% Millard 1.08% Piute Garfield Sevier 1.55% Wayne San Juan 3.19% Iron 2.37% Beaver 1.34% Washington 2.75% Kane Davis 1.13% Source: NY Federal Reserve Bank; Trans Union, LLC. Percentage of Residential Mortgage Loans Delinquent for 90–plus Days; 2nd Quarter 2008 State Average = 3.2% 1.00% to 1.49% Less than 1.00% 2.00% or higher 1.50% to 1.99%

59. Box Elder 2.5% Cache 1.5% Rich 0.4% Weber 3.3% Tooele 3.7% Salt Lake 2.8% Morgan 1.3% Summit 0.9% Daggett 1.7% Utah 2.5% Wasatch 2.2% Duchesne 3.0% Uintah 3.5% Juab 3.5% Sanpete 3.5% Carbon 3.1% Emery 2.7% Grand 1.5% Millard 3.0% Piute 1.1% Garfield 3.0% Sevier 2.7% Wayne 0.5% San Juan 3.4% Iron 2.6% Beaver 3.3% Washington 3.5% Kane 1.6% Davis 2.2% 2.00% to 2.99% 1.00% to 1.99% 3.50% or higher 3.00% to 3.49% Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Foreclosure Rate Estimates; June 2008 Less than 1.00%

60. Year-over Change in MSA Area Housing Price Index (HPI) Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx.

61. Year-over Change in Housing Price Index (HPI) Compared to Annual Change in Average Monthly Wage Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, Utah Department of Workforce Services.

62. “ There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: when he can't afford it, and when he can.” Mark Twain

63. Housing Affordability is Improving Source: National Association of Homebuilders; Wells Fargo Bank. Housing Opportunity Index—% of homes which are affordable to families with the median income.

64. Washington County Dwelling Unit Permits *Forecast based on January-November data. Source: U of U; Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research. Lowest number since 1989. . .

65. Annual Change in Washington County New Dwelling Unit Permits Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services. *January-November 2007 compared to January-November 2008.

66. Percent Change in Washington County Total Permit Authorized Construction Values *January–November 2007 compared to January-November 2008 Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.

67. Change in Number of Washington County Homes Sold Source: Utah Association of Realtors. *Third Qtr 2008 compared to Third Qtr 2007. Inventory of homes for sale is slowly shrinking

68. Washington County New Residential Building Permit Valuation *Forecast based on January – November data. Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research. Millions of $ Lowest number since 1989. . .

69. 2007-2008* Washington County Change in Permitted New Dwelling Units by Community *January-November. Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research.

70. Washington County New Nonresidential Building Permit Valuation *Forecast based on January - November. Source: Utah Bureau of Business and Economic Research. Millions of $

71. Washington County Change in Gross Taxable Sales Big declines in building/garden, furniture and auto sales. Source: Utah State Tax Commission.

72. Washington County Change in Car/Light Truck Sales Source: Utah State Tax Commission.

73. When will the recession end?

74. Economists are pessimists: they've predicted eight of the last three recessions. Isn't it strange? The same people who laugh at gypsy fortune tellers take economists seriously. The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. John Kenneth Galbraith

75. In Washington County. . . Job losses should bottom-out in 1 st Qtr 2009. Higher unemployment likely in 2009. Housing market adjustment will take longer. Market correction related to U.S. recovery.

76. Softening Effects . . . Out-migration of undocumented workers Lower prices boosts disposable income. Economic Stimulus Package; confidence. Different economy; different demographics.

77. Cautionary Tales . . . Panic could continue to drive economy. Housing bubbles collapse slowly. Stimulus package may be timed poorly.

78. Watch the Indicators for a turnaround!!!