Paper by Theresa Sauter and Axel Bruns, presented at the Association of Internet Researchers conference, Denver, 26 Oct. 2013.

1. Exploring Emotions on # auspol :
Polarity and Public Performance in the
Tw itter Debate on Australian Politics
Dr. Theresa Sauter and Assoc. Prof. Axel Bruns, with Catherine Bub
ARC Centre of Excellence for Creative Industries and Innovation
Queensland University of Technology
Brisbane, Australia
t.sauter@qut.edu.au – a.bruns@qut.edu.au
@lena_sauter – @snurb_dot_info
http://mappingonlinepublics.net/

2. TIMELINE
•
Nov. 2007:
Kevin Rudd (Labor) wins the federal election
•
Dec. 2009:
Tony Abbott (Liberal) becomes Opposition Leader
•
June 2010:
Kevin Rudd is replaced by his Deputy, Julia Gillard (Labor)
•
Aug. 2010:
Julia Gillard narrowly wins the federal election
Labor minority government, supported by Greens and Independents
Labor introduces Emissions Trading Scheme amid fierce opposition
Poor opinion polls for Gillard, continuing Labor leadership tension
Several unsuccessful leadership challenges by Kevin Rudd
•
June 2013:
•
4 Aug. – 7 Sep. 2013: 2013 Australian federal election campaign
•
Sep. 2013:
Rudd wins leadership challenge, becomes PM again, calls election
Tony Abbott wins the federal election

3. BACKGROUND
• Research projects:
– ARC Discovery: New Media and Public Communication (QUT)
– NRC FRISAM: Impact of Social Media on Agenda-Setting in Election
Campaigns (QUT, UiO, UiB, Uppsala, CSU LB)
– ATN-DAAD: Mapping Networked Politics (QUT, LMU)
• Study design:
–
–
–
–
–
Long-term capture of the #auspol hashtag
Selection of two key periods in recent Australian politics
Quantitative analysis + manual coding (with thanks to Catherine Bub)
Further qualitative exploration of tweets and profiles
Work in progress

4. AUSTRALIAN POLITICS AND #AUSPOL
•
#auspol:
– Long-standing hashtag for the discussion of Australian politics on Twitter
– Very high volume of tweets, strongly concentrated community
– Traditionally highly belligerent, dominated by conservatives (?)
•
Australian politics on Twitter:
– Substantial political discussion within and outside #auspol
– Large network of politics-focussed accounts, not all participating in #auspol
– Alternative hashtags also well-frequented – especially #ausvotes during elections

5. Real Estate
Property
Jobs
HR
Business
Parenting
AUSTRALIAN TWITTERSPHERE
Design
Web
Creative
Perth
Marketing / PR
Farming
Agriculture
IT
Tech
News
Food
Wine
Creative
Design
Social
ICTs
Fashion
Beauty
Utilities
Services
Net Culture
Opinion
News
ALP
Progressives
(EARLY 2012)
Craft
Arts
Beer
NGOs
Social Policy
Greens
Hardline
Conservatives
Social Media
Tech
PR
Advertising
Mums
Business
Property
Books
Literature
Publishing
Adelaide
Theatre
Film Arts
@KRuddMP
@JuliaGillard
Conservatives
Journalists
Radio
TV
Music
Triple J
Talkback
Breakfast TV
Cycling Celebrities
Dance
Hip Hop
Union
Evangelicals
NRL
Swimming
V8s
Football
Cricket
AFL
Christians
Teaching Hillsong
e-Learning
Schools
Teens
Jonas Bros.
Beliebers

6. #AUSPOL
(EARLY 2012)
Follower/followee network:
~120,000 Australian Twitter users
(of ~950,000 known accounts by early 2012)
colour = #auspol tweets, size = indegree

7. #AUSVOTES
(2010 ELECTION)
Follower/followee network:
~120,000 Australian Twitter users
(of ~950,000 known accounts by early 2012)
colour = #ausvotes tweets, size = indegree

8. #AUSPOL 2013
Rudd/Gillard
leadership challenge
(successful)
Rudd/Gillard
leadership challenge
(unsuccessful)

9. • Mid-May to mid-June 2013:
THE #AUSPOL
COMMUNITY
•
Core group:
–
10% most active
contributors dominant:
–
–
–
Lead users (1%):
–
–
•
49% tweets (May-June)
44% tweets (July)
Interactive:
–
•
84% tweets (May-June)
81% tweets (July)
65% of tweets are
@replies or retweets
(steady across May-June /
July periods)
Stable:
–
Composition of lead user
group largely consistent
• July 2013:

10. • Mid-May to mid-June 2013:
SELECTION
OF ACCOUNTS
•
Patterns:
–
–
–
•
One hyperactive anti-ALP
account: original tweets
with URLs
Some retweet-only
accounts
Remaining lead group:
1700-4000 #auspol tweets
per month
Selection:
–
–
–
–
Six accounts for each
phase
Top six senders of
@replies in #auspol
Four accounts in both
phases + 2 unique
accounts for phase 1 and
2 each
Names anonymised
• July 2013:

11. CODING OF TWEETS
• Approach:
– Every 10th tweet coded:
• Attitude towards political party (-5 to +5),
for ALP, Liberals, Greens, Others, Mixed
• Attitude towards fellow users (-5 to +5),
for general accounts and media accounts
– Averaging of attitude ratings for each user and each period
– Comparison across periods

12. THE USERS: MID-MAY TO MID-JUNE
Observations:
•
Tone towards other users:
Tone towards Parties
•
Tone towards parties:
– Vocally negative towards
Liberals
– Quietly positive towards Labor
 used to attack more than
support parties
– Except 6: strongly negative
towards ALP, support for UKIP
ALP
(#)
Lib
(#)
1
0.1
(20)
-0.73
(97)
2
0.15
(13)
-0.57
(107)
3
– Generally neutral to negative
(-0.14 to -0.47)
– Except 4: +0.17
User
1.37
(8)
-1.03
(105)
4
1.67
(18)
-1.05
(41)
5
0.5
(8)
-1.08
(111)
6
-2.18
(28)
2.67
(3)

13. THE USERS: JULY
Observations:
•
Tone towards other users:
Tone towards parties:
– Vocally negative towards
Liberals – no change
– Positive towards Labor
– Mixed response to leadership
change
– Still mainly used to attack rather
than support parties
•
More negative towards media
User
ALP
(#)
Lib
(#)
1
0.5 ↗
(20)
-1.02
(85)
2
– Generally neutral
(-0.23 to +0.13)
•
Tone towards Parties
0.86 ↗
(7)
-0.60
(123)
3
0.83 ↘
(6)
-1.46
(96)
4
0.27 ↘
(22)
-1.06
(47)
7
0.14
(7)
-1.06
(76)
8
1.09
(33)
-1.04
(117)

14. @MENTIONS MAY-JUNE
#auspol accounts with degree ≥ 100
Size = degree, colour = party (politicians only)

15. RETWEETS MAY-JUNE
#auspol accounts with degree ≥ 100
Edges which are ≥ 66% retweets only

16. @REPLIES MAY-JUNE
#auspol accounts with degree ≥ 100
Edges which are ≤ 33% retweets only

17. @MENTIONS JULY
#auspol accounts with degree ≥ 100
Size = degree, colour = party (politicians only)

18. RETWEETS JULY
#auspol accounts with degree ≥ 100
Edges which are ≥ 66% retweets only

19. @REPLIES JULY
#auspol accounts with degree ≥ 100
Edges which are ≤ 33% retweets only

20. #AUSPOL ACCORDING TO VOTECOMPASS
http://votecompass.com/2013/07/25/are-you-among-australias-most-influential-political-tweeters-votecompass-maps-the-auspol-twittersphere/

21. REFLECTIONS
•
#auspol lead user activity:
– Not as conservative-dominated as previously assumed
– Several overlapping trends:
• Highly partisan retweet networks
• Cross-party @replying: criticism of opposition politicians and engagement
with fellow #auspol contributors
– More criticism than support of parties and leading candidates
•
Highly discursive users in our May-June / July samples:
– Mostly anti-Liberal (but no clear indication of wider #auspol patterns)
– Split between anti-Liberal cluster and network centre
– Mixed reaction to Gillard/Rudd leadership change
– to be continued…

22. http://mappingonlinepublics.net/
@snurb_dot_info
@lena_sauter
@jeanburgess
@dpwoodford
@timhighfield
@_StephenH
@quods
@socialmediaQUT