This presentation was given at the RT Booklovers convention in Chicago April 11, 2012. It analyzes a nine-month chunk of Smashwords sales data, aggregated across multiple Smashwords retailers (Apple iBookstore, Sony, Kobo, Barnes & Noble, Amazon, Diesel, Smashwords.com), to determine if there were potential data-driven metrics that might reveal new viral catalysts that authors can put to work to make their books more available, discoverable and enjoyable to readers. By utilizing the right mix of viral catalysts, authors can maximize reader reader word-of-mouth. Some of the findings are eye-opening, and some are simply just fun. Learn more about viral catalysts and ebook publishing best practices by reading Mark Coker's SECRETS TO EBOOK PUBLISHING SUCCESS, available at most major ebook retailers.

1. MONEY MONEY MONEY:
How Data-Driven Decisions *Might*
Help Authors Reach More Readers
RT Booklovers Convention
April 11, 2012
Mark Coker
Founder, Smashwords
Twitter: @markcoker

2. This presentation was first given at the Chicago RT
Booklovers convention on April 11, 2012
On April 25, I modified it to include notes so
Slideshare viewers have better context through which
to understand the data
Visit
http://www.slideshare.net/smashwords/presentations
to access a wide variety of other presentations from
Mark Coker

3. My backstory

4. My wife Lesleyann is a former reporter for Soap Opera Weekly
Magazine. We wrote a novel, Boob Tube, that explores the wild
and wacky world of daytime television

5. Despite Representation by Top
Literary Agency, Every Publisher
Rejected it
• Previous soap opera-themed novels had
not performed well in the marketplace
• Publishers reluctant to take a chance
on the book
• The experience opened my eyes to Big
Publishing

6. The Big Publisher Challenge
• Books judged on perceived commercial
potential
• Publishers unable to take a risk on
every author
• Thousands of great writers denied
opportunity to reach readers
• Books forced out of print too soon

7. My Answer: Smashwords
• Ebooks !!
• Provide writers free tools to become their
own ebook publishers
• Open up the printing press to all
• Open up distribution to major ebook stores
• Ebooks are immortal
• Smashwords is now the world’s largest
distributor of self-published ebooks

8. Indie ebooks published at
Smashwords
100000 92,000 +
80000
60000
40000 28,800
20000 6,000
140
0
2008 2009 2010 2011

9. How Smashwords Distribution
Works
• UPLOAD
• Upload a Microsoft Word file, formatted to our Style
Guide
• Free conversion to 9 ebook formats
• Ready for immediate sale online
• DISTRIBUTE
• Distribution to multiple major retailers
• GET PAID
• Author receives 85%+ of net = 60% list from major
retailers

10. LET’S GET STARTED

11. Smashwords Makes Ebook Publishing
and Distribution Easy

12. WRITING A GREAT BOOK IS
DIFFICULT
(and nothing is more important than
a great book)

13. YOU WROTE A SUPER FAB BOOK

14. Let’s Examine Data That Provides
Clues to Possible Viral Catalysts

15. What’s a Viral Catalyst?
• A viral catalyst is something that makes your
book more available, accessible, desirable
and enjoyable to readers
• Read the Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success (it’s
FREE!) to learn how viral catalysts spur word-of-mouth

16. Navigating Data-speak (the
dangers of “average”)

17. ???
Useful (and not-so-useful) discoveries
start with simple questions

18. ???
So I asked questions
We looked at about nine months of sales
data, aggregated across the Smashwords
distribution network
Some findings are useful, some were just
fun

19. Smashwords Distribution
Network

20. Q:
Do authors who change prices
frequently sell more books?

21. Impact of Price Changes
• Conclusions not clear cut
• Small sample sizes of Top 10, Top 40 not
statistically significant
• Not a clear cause and effect of price
changes to increased sales
• Quite possible authors who change prices
frequently are also promoting their books more
actively

22. Impact of Price Changes

23. Q:
If ebooks are immortal, how do sales
develop over time?

24. How Sales Develop
• This set of data looks at aggegrated
“Classes” of all titles published in a certain
month, are still published, and how their sales
developed from month one to month two to
(etc…)
• Key findings:
• Strong overall growth as ebook market develops and
some titles achieve viral word of mouth
• A lot of randomness: Different classes, even
separated by one month, exhibit dramatically
different growth patterns
• Could speak to the outsize influence of a small number of
breakout hits in each class

25. Smashwords Class of June 2009

26. Smashwords Class of July 2009

27. Smashwords Class of August
2009

28. Smashwords Class of January
2009

29. Q:
How might an individual title develop
at a retailer?

30. How Sales Develop: Single
Retailer, Single Title
• This set of data looks at individual titles at
the Apple iBookstore
• Key findings:
• Different books develop differently over time
• Sales rise and fall, then rise and fall again, based on
various factors (randomness, luck, author promotions, new
title releases, retailer promos)
• If authors don’t maintain persistent presence across all
retailers, they miss the spikes and miss opportunity to
harvest the benefit
• Unlike print books, which quickly go out of print, ebooks
are immortal and can yield income for years

31. Slow boil, breakout, slow boil,
breakout
• This title was selling relatively well (5-10 copies a day) then
benefited from major national press coverage (spike #1) then
feature placement in Apple email promo (spike #2). After
each spike, sales settled at higher level than previous.

32. Slow boil, slow build, breakout,
slow boil
• This title did nothing for a month, but then started
growing organically through word of mouth. This book
is likely to enjoy many many years of solid
performance as new readers discover it.

33. Slow boil, breakout, slow boil,
smaller breakouts
• Another title that did nothing at first, but then spiked,
dropped, and spiked again. Titles like this are likely to
continue selling well, and will often break out into their
genre bestseller lists many times.

34. Quick build, breakout, slow boil
• Sold well right out of the gate, then built, then spiked before
dropping back to slow boil. This title is also likely to
experience future breakouts as the author releases new titles,
does promos, and as new groups of readers discover the book.

35. Quick breakout to slow steady
boil
• Another title that will yield the author significant
income over time. Books like this that sell copies
every day usually earn solid reviews. Titles like this
are primed for breakouts if author takes right steps.

36. Slow boil to breakout
• This is the chart for Ruth Ann Nordin (the only author for which I obtained
permission to reveal her identity) and her book, An Inconvenient Marriage. This
book had already been a bestseller at Kobo 12 months before it suddenly broke
out at Apple to become the #1 romance title in the store. The Apple spike was
prompted by a new title release, price changes, and possibly also a free
promotion for a separate title on her list. More discussion in my “Secrets” book.

37. Q:
What’s the ideal word count for
ebooks?

38. Do Readers Prefer Longer Books?
• For the average book, yes. Clear pattern that
longer books dominate our bestseller lists

39. Do Readers Prefer Longer Books?
• This looks at bestseller bands. Trend
is even more prominent. Ebook buyers
prefer longer form.

40. 60% of Top 20 Bestsellers Longer
than 100K Words

41. 53% of Top 40 Longer than 100K

42. Q:
Do Romance Readers Prefer Different
Lengths?

43. Yes. 90% of Top 10 Romance
Bestsellers under 100,000 words

44. 78% of top 40 Run under 100K

45. Romance Readers Prefer ~80,000
Words

46. Q:
Do erotica readers prefer longer or
shorter?

47. Average Word Count for
Bestselling Erotica

48. Q:
What price moves the most units?

49. FREE
• FREE moves more ebooks
• ~100X more downloads on average
• Powerful platform builder
• Powerful sales catalyst for series or deep
backlists

50. Q:
What impact does price have on unit
sales?

51. Impact of Price on Unit Sales
• This set of data examines how price
impacts unit sales
• 1.0 = normalized reference point. For
example, books priced in $2.00-$2.99
price band sell 6.2 times more units
than books priced $10.00+
• Key findings:
• Low prices sell more units
• $1.00-$1.99 price point underperforms

52. How Price Impacts Units Sold

53. Q:
How are Smashwords authors pricing
their books?

54. Prices are slowly trending
downward
Source: http://blog.smashwords.com/2012/03/does-agency-pricing-lead-to-higher-book.html

55. Q:
What are the most common price
points?

56. How Many Books are Priced at
Each Price Point?

57. Q:
What prices earn the author the
greatest amount of money?

58. What Price Earns the Author the
Greatest Yield?
• We know low price yields more unit
sales, but what price yields the
greatest profit for the author?
• Key findings:
• $.99 to $1.99 underperforms, about 60% below
average
• $2.99 to $5.99 appears to be sweet spot for indie
authors and small presses
• Data indicates that some authors are probably
underpricing their works, and might want to
experiment with slightly higher prices

59. What Price Yields Highest
Earnings?

60. Q:
How many books sell well?

61. How Many Indie Ebooks Sell
Well?
• Sales distribution is a “power curve” not a “
bell curve”
• Key findings:
• Most books do not sell well (very important for authors to set
realistic expectations, and take long term approach to platform
building)
• Sales distribution characterized by small minority of titles
selling extremely well, thousands of moderate sellers, and then
a long tail of poor sellers
• Authors should implement best practices (read the
Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success for ideas!) to drive their
performance to the left of the curve
• As books increase sales rank and move to the left of the curve,
their actual sales increase quickly, especially in top 5,000

62. Sales Distribution Across
Smashwords Network
(Normalized to 1.0 = average)

63. Slice: Top 100-10,000

64. Slice: Top 100-20,000

65. Romance Sales Across
Smashwords Network
• Romance, on average, sells 2.2 times better than the
average indie ebook at Smashwords (interesting!)

66. Erotica Relative Sales
Performance

67. Q:
What’s the optimal price per word?

68. ~ 3.5 cents per 1,000 words
• The outlier is a 27,000 word ebook priced at $2.99. Indicates that
some authors might have ability to price popular works higher

69. Final Thoughts
• Data-driven publishing decisions are
irrelevant without a great book
• Numbers provide hints at reader preferences
• Don’t write a longer (bloated) or shorter book unless
that’s what the story demands
• If your story demands 200,000 words, go for it!
• Information, properly applied, can become a
viral catalyst
• Read the Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success for
other viral catalysts

70. Free Ebook Publishing Resources
• NEW! Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success
(best practices of successful authors)
• Smashwords Book Marketing Guide (how to
market any book at no cost)
• Smashwords Style Guide (how to format and
publish an ebook)

71. Thank you for listening!
Connect:
Twitter: @markcoker
Facebook: facebook.com/markcoker
Web: www.smashwords.com
Blog: blog.smashwords.com (offers
email subscription option)
HuffPo: huffingtonpost.com/mark-coker