This document summarizes a presentation by Dr. Junichi Fujino from the National Institute for Environmental Studies in Japan. The presentation discusses Japan's efforts to transition to a low carbon society through

1. Keynote Presentation:
Japan leading the way towards low carbon society
Dr. Junichi Fujino, Senior Researcher of National Institute
for Environmental Studies of Japan
Cleantech – Global Opportunity for Business
7.11.2007

2. http://2050.nies.go.jp/interimreport/20070215_report_e.pdf
Japan Low-Carbon
Society (LCS) Study
Designed by Hajime Sakai
Junichi Fujino (fuji@nies.go.jp)
NIES (National Institute for Environmental Studies), Japan
The seminar “Cleantech – Global Opportunities for Business”
Sitra, Finland, Nov 7th, 2007

3. CCSR/NIES/FRCGC, Japan
Surface Air Temperature Change (1900=0 oC)
http://2050.nies.go.jp

4. How fast we need to reduce GHG emissions
Per capita Energy Carbon
activity Intensity Intensity
Total amount
Activity Energy CO2
CO2 emissions＝Pop × × ×
Pop Activity Energy
60-80% reductions
differential
Change
rate
integral
Total
Kaya identity
Change rate＝speed
Activity Energy CO2
CO2emission Pop
＝ ＋ Pop ＋ Activity ＋ Energy
Change rate Change rate
change rate change rate change rate
-2~3%/year -0.5%/year 1.5%/year Y%/year X%/year
The case of Japan LCS
1%/year -3~4%/year

5. http://www.kantei.go.jp/foreign/abespeech/2007/05/24speech_e.html

6. As for LCS visions,
we prepared two different
but likely future societies
Vision A “Doraemon” Vision B “Satsuki and Mei”
Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-oriented
Urban/Personal Decentralized/Community
Doraemon is a Japanese comic
series created by Fujiko F.
Technology breakthrough Self-sufficient Fujio. The series is about a
robotic cat named Doraemon,
Centralized production Produce locally, consume who travels back in time from
the 22nd century. He has a
/recycle locally pocket, which connects to the
fourth dimension and acts like
a wormhole.
Comfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values
2%/yr GDP per capita growth 1%/yr GDP per capita growth
Satsuki and Mei’s House
reproduced in the 2005
World Expo. Satsuki and Mei
are daughters in the film "My
Neighbor Totoro". They lived
an old house in rural Japan,
near which many curious and
Akemi
Imagawa
magical creatures inhabited.

7. Projected Japan population and
140
households in scenario A
100%
90%
120 age 100%
Type of household (%)
80%
80- 80-
(Thousand)
100 80% 70% Others
60-79
60-79 60%
Population(Million)
80 40-59
Population
40-59 60% 50% Parent-
60 20-39 20-39
Children
40% One-Person
0-19 0-19
40%
40 30%
Couple-Only
20%
20 20%
10% Couple-
Children
0 0%
0%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
year 2000 2050
A B
Population (million) 126.9 94.5 100.3
Aged population ratio (%) 17.4 38.0 35.8
Average number of household 2.71 2.19 2.38
Single-person households (%) 27.6 42.6 35.1
http://2050.nies.go.jp

8. Projected energy efficiency improvement:
Air-conditioners for cooling and heating
9.0
MOE
8.0 AIST
Historical
COP (Coefficient of performance)
7.0
Best 2050s
6.0
METI Target METI
5.0
4.0
Average
3.0
Worst
2.0
Top-runner approach
1.0
0.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

9. Utilizing solar power LCS house in 2050
Comfortable and
Eco-life education energy-saving house
Photovoltaic
34-69MW 10-20% energy
rooftop
(25-47% house has PV on roof (now 1%)) demand reduction
and develop high efficiency (<30%) PV gardening
High efficiency
lighting
Solar heating 【eg LED lighting】
Diffusion rate: 20-60% Reduce 1/2
（currently 8%） energy demand
Share 100%
Monitoring system
equipped with appliances High-insulation
Reduce 60% warming
Super high energy demand,
efficiency air share 100%
conditioner
COP (coefficients of Fuel cell
performance=8), Heat-pump heating share 0-20%
share 100%
COP＝5
Stand-by energy share 30-70%
reduction Good information for
economy and environment High efficiency appliances
Reduce 1/3 energy
demand, makes people’s behavior reduce energy demand and
share 100%
low-carbon support comfortable and safe lifestyle 5

10. Residential sector
Energy demand reduction potential: 50%
70 Change of the number
of households
Change of service
60 demand per household
3 3 4 4 Change of energy
demand per household
Energy Consumption (Mtoe)
50 9 10 Improvement of energy
efficiency
Electricity consumption
40
17 H2 consumption
23
30
Solar consumption
20 Biomass consumption
Gas consumption
10
Oil consumption
0 Energy consumption in
2000 2050A 2050B 2000
Change of the number of households: the number of households decrease both in scenario A and B
Change of service demand per household: convenient lifestyle increases service demand per household
Change of energy demand per household: high insulated dwellings, Home Energy Management System (HEMS)
Improvement of energy efficiency: air conditioner, water heater, cooking stove, lighting and standby power

11. http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/TheMeetingPlace/Activities/Activities2007/0706AchievingSustainableLCS.aspx
from
passenger transportation
Demand management
e.g. by information-
communication technology
sector
(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)=0.26
[transport-service per capita]
Modal shift to reduce CO2 EF Improve fuel economy
per passenger-km or ton-km [Fuel consumption per vehicle-km]
CO 2 TransServ Pkm(Tkm)  Vkm Fuel CO 2 EF 
     Pkm(Tkm)  Vkm  Fuel  
capita capita TransServ Mode 
Improve load factor
[vehicle-km per Pkm(Tkm)]
Improve accessibility Introduce low carbon energy
[passenger-km or ton-km [CO2 emission factor per fuel
per transport-service] consumption]
Yuichi Moriguchi, 2nd Japan-UK joint research project workshop (2007.6)

12. Estimated regional automotive CO2 emissions
2.
50
Tokyo Met. Nagoya Met.
2.
00 Osaka Met. Other Areas
1.
50 Freight vehicles
1.
00
0.
50 Passenger cars
0.
00
[t/year] 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
CO2 per capita Accumulated population [million]
Each Area is categorized in
1. Major cities
2. Cities with a pop of 0.5 million and above
3. Cities with a pop of 0.3 and above
4. Cities with a pop of 0.1 and above
5. Cities with a pop less than 0.1 million
6. Counties
Passenger car emissions
(t-CO2/capita)
Yuichi Moriguchi, 2nd Japan-UK
joint research project workshop (2007.6)

13. Passenger transportation
Energy demand reduction potential: 80%
60 Change of total
transportation amount
1
4 Change of structure of
Decrease of demand
6
transportation
50 4 Modal shift
7 Decrease of service
Energy demands (Mtoe)
demand
Land use Change
6
Improvement of
40 energy efficiency
Electricity
Energy Efficiency
30 32 H2
28
Solar
20
Biomass
10 Gas
Oil
0
Energy demands in
2000 2050A 2050B 2000

14. Energy demands for achieving 70% reduction of
CO2 emissions
Seconday Energy Demands (Mtoe)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Residential Trans. Prv.
2000(Actual) Industrial
Commercial Trans. Frg.
2050(Scenario A)
40-45% energy demand
reduces by structural
Decrease of
change of demand,
energy demand
and efficiency
2050(Scenario B) improvement
Industrial Residential Commercial Trans. Prv. Trans. Frg.
Trans.Prv.: Transportation (Private), Trans.Frg.: Transportation (Freight)
Possible energy demands reductions for each sector:
Industry：structural change and introduction of saving energy tech. 20～40％
Passenger Transport :land use, saving energy, carbon-intensity change 80％
Freight Transport :efficient transportation system, energy efficient 60～70％
Residential: high-insulated and energy-saving houses 50％
Commercial: high-insulated building and energy saving devices 40％
19

15. What is Low Carbon
Energy Supply System?
Large-scale
Large-scale Small-scale
Storage Consumer
Supplier Storage
Grid
Electricity Electricity
Nuclear Distributed
Renewables
Renewables
Heat Pump
Electrolysis Stationary
Fossil Fuel Fuel Cell Heat
Fuel Cell
Hydrogen Vehicle
Trans
CCS (Carbon portation
Biofuel
Capture and
Storage) http://2050.nies.go.jp Fujino (2005)

16. Energy supply for achieving 70%
reduction of CO2 emissions
Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe)
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
2000(Actual) Coal Oil Gas
2050(Scenario A) Nuclear
Centralized style
Decentralized style
2050(Scenario B) Biomass Solar and Wind Micro grid
Coal Oil Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro Solar and Wind
21

17. 7
Current per capita
6 CO2 emissions
CO2 per capita emissions (t-C/cap)
$200/t-C scenario
US and Target
5 US: delay for tech development,
Canada global warming business
4
EU: Initiatives toward LCS
UK Germany Japan: Need long-term vision
3
METI, Japan
Developing countries: earlier
2030 scenario guidance toward LCS is key
2 France Japan 2050
World scenario
1
China Target for
IA2
IB1 Low Carbon Society
0 India
Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino;
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event
Global Challenges Toward
Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005

18. CO2 Emission from Energy Activities in China
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
Gt-C
1.0 LCS Scenario
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Jiang Kejun, Low-Carbon Options in China
EMF 22, Tsukuba, Dec 12-14, 2006

19. Transition of energy intensity:
Start of new innovation race
U.S. EU-15
CO2/Capita
4 0.5 U.K. Germany
ドイツ France Japan
一人あたりCO2 排出量（tC/人）
3.5 Korea
Energy/GDP [toe/thousand$]
イギリス Ger 0.4
3
Japan
2.5 0.3 Korea
2.22ｔC／人
U.S.
2
フランス UK
0.2
1.5
Fr U.K.
1
日本 0.82ｔC／人 0.1
Japan
?
0.5 Past Plan
実績値 計画値 0.5 tC/人
0 0.0
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
(Based on IEA Energy Statistics) By S.Nishioka and S.Ashina

20. Japan-UK Joint Research Project
LCS through Sustainable Development
for Global Participation
A First workshop was held
G8 Gleneagles 2005
in Tokyo, June14-16, 2006.
Participants from 19 countries;
Asia: Japan, China, India, Thailand,
Taiwan (China)
Africa: South Africa, Nigeria
Europe: UK, France, Germany,
Denmark, Spain, Netherlands, Russia
G8 Japan
Latin America: Brazil, Mexico, Chile
North America: US, Canada
July 2008
A Second workshop was held
in London, June13-15, 2007.
A Third workshop will be held
in Japan, Feb13-15, 2008.
Developing and Diffusing Innovations
http://2050.nies.go.jp
for our good life and LCS through SD

21. LCS is not only to avoid dangerous
climate change, but to…
• Avoid energy resource battles by using
resources in efficient ways
• Develop many innovations to support
global sustainable development
• Build safe and sound society considering
appropriate land-use and city planning
We need good institutions to enhance people
who has taken actions for these activity

22. What do you want to do now
for our future?
Christmas Concert of Yoko Fujino’s
Piano Class on Dec 23, 2005