4. Global Oil & Gas Import 3
Dependency
Unconventional gas will
account for about half of
the increase in global gas
production to 2035, with
most of this coming from
the United
States, Australia and
China, according to IEA.
Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
5. 4
US Oil & Gas Production
Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
6. 5
Oil Price Factor
Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
11. 10
EVs are Ready for Primetime!
Tesla’s Big Win Proves EVs Are Ready for
Primetime
“Electric vehicles have hit the tipping point of mainstream acceptance, and you naysayers just lost your last reason for
hating the technology.
MotorTrend magazine’s unanimous decision to name the Tesla Model S its car of the year is more than a big moment for
Tesla Motors. It’s a big moment for electric vehicles and, more importantly, internal combustion. The award follows similar
nods from Automobile and Yahoo. (Yes, Yahoo does cars.) That only underscores just how good the Model S is, and how
solid its underlying technology is. “Source: www.wired.com, 11/13/2012 By Damon Lavrinc
Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
12. 11
EV Market Players
Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
13. 3rd Party Forecast of EV 12
Fleets in Different Regions
Forecasts are almost
useless – they vary
widely
- Range from 2M to over
20M vehicles in 2020
Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
14. 13
Supply Forecasts
Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
15. Worldwide EV OEMs 14
Production Capacity
Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
17. 16
Market Constraints
Total Market Size
Substitutability
Access to Infrastructure
Income Issues
Behavioral Issues
Source: GTM Research
Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
18. 17
EV Growth
DRIVERS DETERRENTS
Efficiency Range Anxiety
Cost Learning Curve Purchase Price
Success of Hybrids Political Opposition
Lower Operating Cost Utilities Resistance
Climate Risks Multi-Tenant Living
Health & Clean Air Infrastructure
Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
19. 18
Range Anxiety
Declining Marginal Value of More Batteries – a very expensive way to
avoid Range Anxiety
Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
21. Key Drivers of EV Operating 20
Costs
Capital, Operating Costs, Fuel, Electricity, Performance, Use, and
Financing all impact TCO & will change over time.
Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
22. 21
Battery Cycle Costs
Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
23. 22
EV Fuel Saving per Gallon
Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
24. Variable Cost of ICEs vs 23
BEVs in USA
Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
25. 24
Li-ion Cost Assumption
Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
26. 25
Battery Cost Improvement
Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
27. 26
EV Battery Market
Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
28. 27
Shakeout
Electric Car Battery Maker A123 Systems Files
Bankruptcy
Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
30. 29
EV Battery Technology Trend
Key: Lower Cost ($), Higher High Power Density Cell: 可有效提升車輛
動力,這類電池適用於混合動力車,僅需短時
Energy (Wh) Density, Higher 間的高功率輸出;
Power (W) Density
High Energy Density Cell: 有助延長電動車
Target: 續航力,特別適用於純電動車,需要較高的續
航力,但對於電池功率較不要求;
Battery pack cost < 25% of
vehicle cost to enable a 而兼具高 密度與高能量的電池芯則適用於
healthy market growth. 插電式混合動力車,因為這類車款必須兼具
高性能與高續航力。
Increase battery cells’ energy
& power density.
Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
31. Vehicle Powertrain 30
Architecture
IP|VDS|HMI
ABS|ESP
VCU
PTC AIRBAG
e-Compressor
BMS PCU
Battery Gear
HVJB M/D Motor
Pack Box
ON BOADRD
DC/DC
CHARGER
EVSE/AC 12V SLA
CAN
OFF BOARD HV
CHARGER
EVSE/DC
Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12
32. 31
Battery Management System
Presented by Arthur Wang 11/17/12