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R EGIONAL  S CENARIO PLANNING STUDY GENERAL INTRODUCTION TO SCENARIO PLANNING
SCENARIO PLANNING 101: GENERAL OVERVIEW EXPLORATION OF MULTIPLE FUTURES REALITY CHECK ROLL CALL
What is scenario planning? ,[object Object],Study Area Regional Applications of Scenario Planning include: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why do scenario planning? Study Area ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],“ We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used to create them.” -- Albert Einstein
Study Area “ Base Year” “ Future Year” Traditional Approach… Stakeholders carry forward current trends to a pre-defined future planning horizon (i.e., business-as-usual).
Study Area Scenario Planning Approach… “ Base Year” “ Future Year Alternatives” Stakeholders consider several plausible futures for a region assuming  a pre-defined  planning horizon.
Study Area B C D Scenario Planning Approach… Stakeholders evaluate competing development alternatives and establish a common vision for regional policies and decision-making related to new growth and anticipated changes in the region. A
Study Area Evaluate the Alternatives… The different futures (alternatives) can be compared with one another or evaluated on their own merits with regard to many different quantitative and qualitative measures ranging from cost (or allocation of resources) in dollars to effects on transportation, open space, schools, and community facilities
Study Area ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Regions, cities, counties, and towns throughout the nation and nearby are doing scenario planning:
SCENARIO PLANNING TOOLKIT: PLANNING PROCESS AVAILABLE TOOLS KEY STAKEHOLDERS
Study Area Growth Allocation Reality Check Synthesize Growth Scenarios Land Suitability Analysis Resource Maps Public Outreach Concept Maps Trend Analysis Scenario Analysis Model Calibration
Study Area Scenario Planning Software Development Chip Game Regional TDM Focus Area Studies Project Website Growth Forecasts
Study Area ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Who can be Involved in a Regional Scenario Planning Study?
THE END GAME: THE BIG QUESTIONS SHARING THE RESULTS LINKAGE TO OTHER PLANNING INITIATIVES
Study Area ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Scenario planning helps to answer the big questions:
Study Area The outcomes of the plan are shared in graphical and data-intensive forms to clearly communicate ideas and findings to a broad cross section of people and to increase the utility of the findings for local and regional staff in decision-making.
Study Area ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
R EGIONAL  S CENARIO PLANNING STUDY GENERAL INTRODUCTION TO SCENARIO PLANNING NOVEMBER 5, 2009

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General Introduction to Scenario Planning

  • 1. R EGIONAL S CENARIO PLANNING STUDY GENERAL INTRODUCTION TO SCENARIO PLANNING
  • 2. SCENARIO PLANNING 101: GENERAL OVERVIEW EXPLORATION OF MULTIPLE FUTURES REALITY CHECK ROLL CALL
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5. Study Area “ Base Year” “ Future Year” Traditional Approach… Stakeholders carry forward current trends to a pre-defined future planning horizon (i.e., business-as-usual).
  • 6. Study Area Scenario Planning Approach… “ Base Year” “ Future Year Alternatives” Stakeholders consider several plausible futures for a region assuming a pre-defined planning horizon.
  • 7. Study Area B C D Scenario Planning Approach… Stakeholders evaluate competing development alternatives and establish a common vision for regional policies and decision-making related to new growth and anticipated changes in the region. A
  • 8. Study Area Evaluate the Alternatives… The different futures (alternatives) can be compared with one another or evaluated on their own merits with regard to many different quantitative and qualitative measures ranging from cost (or allocation of resources) in dollars to effects on transportation, open space, schools, and community facilities
  • 9.
  • 10. SCENARIO PLANNING TOOLKIT: PLANNING PROCESS AVAILABLE TOOLS KEY STAKEHOLDERS
  • 11. Study Area Growth Allocation Reality Check Synthesize Growth Scenarios Land Suitability Analysis Resource Maps Public Outreach Concept Maps Trend Analysis Scenario Analysis Model Calibration
  • 12. Study Area Scenario Planning Software Development Chip Game Regional TDM Focus Area Studies Project Website Growth Forecasts
  • 13.
  • 14. THE END GAME: THE BIG QUESTIONS SHARING THE RESULTS LINKAGE TO OTHER PLANNING INITIATIVES
  • 15.
  • 16. Study Area The outcomes of the plan are shared in graphical and data-intensive forms to clearly communicate ideas and findings to a broad cross section of people and to increase the utility of the findings for local and regional staff in decision-making.
  • 17.
  • 18. R EGIONAL S CENARIO PLANNING STUDY GENERAL INTRODUCTION TO SCENARIO PLANNING NOVEMBER 5, 2009