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COP 15: Gassing  15 years  on  Carbon Economy... Climate Change : Positive Solutions Series CE81 : The Perils of Carbon Trade
It is futile to chase gasses !! Both Carbon Cap & Carbon Tax  are damaging. They are negative solutions and do little  to stop climate change
Negative solutions can never deliver . Cap & trade or Cap & tax are  penal economic solutions that only tells you   What not to do ?
We need Positive solutions today!! ,[object Object],[object Object]
Carbon Cap or Carbon Tax   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Feasibility ,[object Object]
Scalability  ,[object Object]
Efficiency ,[object Object]
Feasibility & Scalability Questions : What is the prevailing Carbon Price ? What must it be to reduce emissions ? Is such pricing feasible & sustainable? Is the Carbon economy scalable ?
Carbon Price Reality !!! ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Low Carbon prices in U.S. RGGI  auctions 110 million Carbon Credits in US over one year at  a total price of USD 366 million in 4 carbon auctions held for 10 states. Ref: COP15: Bullshitting 15 yrs on  climate change   http:// tinyurl.com/luzxss
Low volumes in European auctions ,[object Object],[object Object]
Few carbon buyers in British auctions,  only 7 % of allowances auctioned 93% of the allowances were given away  free by the British Government , simply because there were no  takers  for Carbon and critically important units that could not be shut refused to buy Carbon As a result of this only 4 million credits went under the hammer. Ref: Telegraph report  http://tinyurl.com/62pyw9
Besides Carbon trading is  open to frauds ,[object Object],[object Object],Ref: Telegraph  http://tinyurl.com/oujh2j
Carbon trading is also susceptible to speculation that may hurt utilities . ,[object Object],[object Object]
Wall Street will run the Carbon world ,[object Object],[object Object]
Wall Street will ruin the Carbon world ,[object Object],Carbon & Energy Derivatives ?
Efficiency & cost control Capping carbon has its  costs. Trading Carbon has its  costs. Channeling Carbon funds to clean energy has  costs.
But users don’t want carbon They want low cost clean energy For only  low cost  clean energy development is user friendly and can stop climate change. So why not cut the carbon talk & fund clean energy directly, efficiently, at a  lower cost.
Carbon trading Governance is expensive  and inefficient ,[object Object],[object Object]
Users want to know…. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Carbon trading solutions are both formative and  expensive Being a grassroots concept it will also have huge infrastructure cost with the NYMEX, Chicago Exchange or  London Climate Exchange plc and the software vendors building the carbon trading solutions from zero. The formative years will need multiple solutions for testing the workability as its scope is very wide ranging from industrial to forest Carbon valuations
Carbon economy is still in experimental stage and may undergo costly changes. Besides the effect of carbon cap on emissions is still hypothetical and the trading mechanism is still based on elementary understanding of the subject . Forest carbon cap is still disputable and under scrutiny.
Each nation must have compatible infrastructure  which is expensive ,[object Object],[object Object]
So why is Carbon Cap the talk of town? ,[object Object],[object Object]
A novice economist proposed cap & trade ,[object Object],[object Object]
Protectionist groups made it  “The Green Bible.” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Cap & Trade Creators now debunk own theory ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Ref: WSJ:  http://tinyurl.com/qq2nqm
Why Asia is hesitant…  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What Asia doesn’t trust Politics in Western nations are influenced by their lobbies be it the oil or the investment community & devise expensive  solutions to protect those interests. They have adequate energy availability and have little stake in developing clean energy cheaply,& will keep trying indirect solutions that bring profits for its lobbies
Why Asia is scared ,[object Object],[object Object]
Macro level Objectives ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Objectives & Reality ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Wishful thinking ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Carbon Prices to Emission ( objective  &  reality  graph)
Can energy producers bear high Carbon cost   Let us say the Kyoto & CERA’s pipe dream comes true !! Carbon prices  rise to $60/MT or $ 100/MT What then will be the cost of energy ?
Can consumers pay the cost Can you pay for it ? Will you ever allow it to happen? Is wishful thinking enough to stop climate change?
See what You will pay To understand how it will pinch your pocket see this Case Study of Allegheny Energy of Pittsburg, Pennsylvania, U.S. a 10,000 MW a large Coal fired utility, that is Involved in emission cases in 3 states.
Allegheny Energy of Pennsylvania   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Allegheny Energy of Pennsylvania ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Even if you pay for it !! ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The emission story is never ending Because after Carbon there is GHG. After GHG there is mercury After mercury there are toxic releases  And the emission list goes on happily ever after!!!
Let us see the Allegheny figures to find some more gasses to chase ? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
But are these the only gasses that affect climate change ? Well not really if you understand the core basics of industrial development worldwide. There are over 600,000 pollutants that cause widespread damage with a few million also ran’s. We look next at CFC the refrigerant, that was the popular gas chase of the seventies, as it harmed the ozone layers. See list  of the alternatives to CFC (not all ratified) by a single Chinese producer. Needless to say that COP 15 or the IPCC  or any cap & trade scheme cannot chase all.
Few Refrigerant substitutes ( some untested) to CFC once considered harmful to Ozone layer in the 70s 0.06 4200b50b Refrigeration  at hi-temp 3.15 -9.2 CH 3 CClF 2 R142b 0 30b0b R12 5.99 -24.7 CH 3 CHF 2 R152a 0 30b0b R22 17.02 -53.15 CH 2 F 2 R32 0.02 30b0b R11/R113 0.96 27.85 CHCl 2 CF 3 R123 0.02 30b0b R22/502 3.86 -10.95 CHClFCF 3 R124 0 30b0b R22/502 13.71 -48.45 CHF 2 CF 3 R125 0.05 420004b R12 6.8 -32.4 R22/600a/142b R406A 0 420004b R22 12.6 -46.1 R125/143a/134a R404A 0 420005b R22 16.64 -52.7 R32/125 R410A 0 420005b R22 11.74 -43.9 R32/125/134a R407C 0 4200b0b R12 6.65 -26.1 CF 3 CH 2 F HFC-134a ODP Packing(kg) Substituted Products vapor pressure  (25°C)bar B.P(°C) Formula Name
What to monitor, whom to catch? The biggest problem with emissions is that it has hundreds of forms, changing by the day, with new technological advances and adaptations  One of the largest sources of emission is from  the unregulated rural Areas of Asia and Africa that is till date considered uncap able and un-taxable and even difficult to classify or quantify..
Moral of the story ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object]
Stop talking Carbon Rubbish ! ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Find a positive solution ! . Will emissions ever drop if clean energy  investments are not made today? No !  You have to first invest in clean energy and  then expect emissions to fall.
Let’s see what the experts say ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Excerpts of data & analysis as in Accenture Report  “ The stabilisation challenge is massive and is not well articulated by policy makers, nor well understood by business” The USA would have to  reduce current emissions by 95%  and the UK by 90% to reach per capita stabilisation volumes What can you currently get for your 1 tonne of CO 2  per year?  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Per capita energy related CO 2 emissions  for selected countries and regions - 2004 0 5 10 15 20 25 USA North America Germany UK Eurasia Europe Global average China Central & South America Brazil Stabilisation level Africa India Tonnes CO 2 per capita per annum Return flight from New York to London  (5560 km/3455 miles apart) or Drink two cups of tea a day and eat 0.5kg of fruit imported by plane a week or Sit in the dark and watch your digital television for eight hours a day or Stay at home and run four 100 watt light bulbs for 8 hours a day for a year or Drive a compact car for 5,000km (2700 miles)
You can’t expect miracles to happen.  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
NTNU says big spenders have  largest footprint
Wealth and Responsibility  ,[object Object],[object Object],So can we tax the Rich ? … Improbable.
Emissions from Coal accounts for half of C02 but provides critical sustenance
Micro level happenings for coal ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The  dilemma !!! Coal Power muzzles its way through in absence clean energy  of alternatives !!! Emissions peak. You can’t stop coal…you can’t cap carbon… You can’t pay a kings ransom for energy You must not touch clean coal CCS as it is rubbish. Can you simply switch off.? Improbable.
Top 10 Total Emission & Energy Consumption Total Emission Data has been adopted from Norwegian Institute of Science &  Technology  Carbon Footprint Data released in 2009  while total population and energy consumption figures are from World Bank data   which is updated by them up to year 2005
The haves & the have not syndrome Three of the 10 nations India, China, Brazil have very moderate per capita emission as well as low per capita energy consumption U.S. on the other hand is the biggest consumer in both areas with 25 times the energy and the per capita emission levels as India and even twice the levels of  U.K. or France.
Developing nations need energy:  You can’t stop that happening.   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
So what then is Probable ? Stop chasing carbon ! Develop low cost clean energy by  direct financing How  ?
WHAT WILL STOP CLIMATE CHANGE   SHARPEN FOCUS ON ONLY  3 SCALABLE MASS PRODUCED GLOBAL SOLUTIONS : Solar power,  Wind power,  Rainforest  Plantation Projects
Only globalization can mass produce clean energy & stop climate change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The 4 forces of Globalization ,[object Object],[object Object]
How ? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Others to follow in the climate change positive plan “clean energy” series CE  21…… onwards  “Solutions in solar energy” CE 41……. onwards  “Solutions in rainforest plantation” CE 61…….onwards  “Solutions in wind energy” CE 81…….onwards  “The perils of carbon trade” CE91…….  onwards  “ Cost reductions and positive solutions for clean energy and climate change initiatives to make it a profit plan.”
Our references & acknowledgements Economy to Ecology Our goal is to help promote clean, safe and better practices in economy and ecology worldwide. Balanced, efficient and a little more sustainable. Read more in : Amazon Kindle Blog : Ecothrust http://tinyurl.com/kpujfx Accenture  Report on Climate Change Allegheny Energy  Data from Allegheny website CERA  Reports on Carbon Economy  Kyoto agreement & Data / UNFCCC & COP Data Norwegian Institute Of Science Report Our Previous presentation on CE-01 Telegraph U.K. and Wall Street Journal
Other Presentations by User   Business Risk Case Study – Ba 33   http://www.slideshare.net/SandipSen/business-risk-case-study-ba33   Climate Change Positive Solutions Series CE-01 http://www.slideshare.net/SandipSen/cop15bullshitting-15-years-on-climate-change
Other presentations by user Business Risk management Series http://www.slideshare.net/SandipSen/living-dangerously-managing-risks-in-business-ba01ppt Business Risk Case Studies Ba31 http://www.slideshare.net/SandipSen/business-risk-case-study-ba31 Business Risk Case Studies Ba32 http://www.slideshare.net/SandipSen/business-risk-case-study-ba-32-1751378
Authors Note ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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COP15: Gassing 15 years on Carbon and Climate Change

  • 1. COP 15: Gassing 15 years on Carbon Economy... Climate Change : Positive Solutions Series CE81 : The Perils of Carbon Trade
  • 2. It is futile to chase gasses !! Both Carbon Cap & Carbon Tax are damaging. They are negative solutions and do little to stop climate change
  • 3. Negative solutions can never deliver . Cap & trade or Cap & tax are penal economic solutions that only tells you What not to do ?
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. Feasibility & Scalability Questions : What is the prevailing Carbon Price ? What must it be to reduce emissions ? Is such pricing feasible & sustainable? Is the Carbon economy scalable ?
  • 10.
  • 11. Low Carbon prices in U.S. RGGI auctions 110 million Carbon Credits in US over one year at a total price of USD 366 million in 4 carbon auctions held for 10 states. Ref: COP15: Bullshitting 15 yrs on climate change http:// tinyurl.com/luzxss
  • 12.
  • 13. Few carbon buyers in British auctions, only 7 % of allowances auctioned 93% of the allowances were given away free by the British Government , simply because there were no takers for Carbon and critically important units that could not be shut refused to buy Carbon As a result of this only 4 million credits went under the hammer. Ref: Telegraph report http://tinyurl.com/62pyw9
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18. Efficiency & cost control Capping carbon has its costs. Trading Carbon has its costs. Channeling Carbon funds to clean energy has costs.
  • 19. But users don’t want carbon They want low cost clean energy For only low cost clean energy development is user friendly and can stop climate change. So why not cut the carbon talk & fund clean energy directly, efficiently, at a lower cost.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22. Carbon trading solutions are both formative and expensive Being a grassroots concept it will also have huge infrastructure cost with the NYMEX, Chicago Exchange or London Climate Exchange plc and the software vendors building the carbon trading solutions from zero. The formative years will need multiple solutions for testing the workability as its scope is very wide ranging from industrial to forest Carbon valuations
  • 23. Carbon economy is still in experimental stage and may undergo costly changes. Besides the effect of carbon cap on emissions is still hypothetical and the trading mechanism is still based on elementary understanding of the subject . Forest carbon cap is still disputable and under scrutiny.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30. What Asia doesn’t trust Politics in Western nations are influenced by their lobbies be it the oil or the investment community & devise expensive solutions to protect those interests. They have adequate energy availability and have little stake in developing clean energy cheaply,& will keep trying indirect solutions that bring profits for its lobbies
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35. Carbon Prices to Emission ( objective & reality graph)
  • 36. Can energy producers bear high Carbon cost Let us say the Kyoto & CERA’s pipe dream comes true !! Carbon prices rise to $60/MT or $ 100/MT What then will be the cost of energy ?
  • 37. Can consumers pay the cost Can you pay for it ? Will you ever allow it to happen? Is wishful thinking enough to stop climate change?
  • 38. See what You will pay To understand how it will pinch your pocket see this Case Study of Allegheny Energy of Pittsburg, Pennsylvania, U.S. a 10,000 MW a large Coal fired utility, that is Involved in emission cases in 3 states.
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42. The emission story is never ending Because after Carbon there is GHG. After GHG there is mercury After mercury there are toxic releases And the emission list goes on happily ever after!!!
  • 43.
  • 44. But are these the only gasses that affect climate change ? Well not really if you understand the core basics of industrial development worldwide. There are over 600,000 pollutants that cause widespread damage with a few million also ran’s. We look next at CFC the refrigerant, that was the popular gas chase of the seventies, as it harmed the ozone layers. See list of the alternatives to CFC (not all ratified) by a single Chinese producer. Needless to say that COP 15 or the IPCC or any cap & trade scheme cannot chase all.
  • 45. Few Refrigerant substitutes ( some untested) to CFC once considered harmful to Ozone layer in the 70s 0.06 4200b50b Refrigeration at hi-temp 3.15 -9.2 CH 3 CClF 2 R142b 0 30b0b R12 5.99 -24.7 CH 3 CHF 2 R152a 0 30b0b R22 17.02 -53.15 CH 2 F 2 R32 0.02 30b0b R11/R113 0.96 27.85 CHCl 2 CF 3 R123 0.02 30b0b R22/502 3.86 -10.95 CHClFCF 3 R124 0 30b0b R22/502 13.71 -48.45 CHF 2 CF 3 R125 0.05 420004b R12 6.8 -32.4 R22/600a/142b R406A 0 420004b R22 12.6 -46.1 R125/143a/134a R404A 0 420005b R22 16.64 -52.7 R32/125 R410A 0 420005b R22 11.74 -43.9 R32/125/134a R407C 0 4200b0b R12 6.65 -26.1 CF 3 CH 2 F HFC-134a ODP Packing(kg) Substituted Products vapor pressure (25°C)bar B.P(°C) Formula Name
  • 46. What to monitor, whom to catch? The biggest problem with emissions is that it has hundreds of forms, changing by the day, with new technological advances and adaptations One of the largest sources of emission is from the unregulated rural Areas of Asia and Africa that is till date considered uncap able and un-taxable and even difficult to classify or quantify..
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50. Find a positive solution ! . Will emissions ever drop if clean energy investments are not made today? No ! You have to first invest in clean energy and then expect emissions to fall.
  • 51.
  • 52.
  • 53.
  • 54. NTNU says big spenders have largest footprint
  • 55.
  • 56. Emissions from Coal accounts for half of C02 but provides critical sustenance
  • 57.
  • 58. The dilemma !!! Coal Power muzzles its way through in absence clean energy of alternatives !!! Emissions peak. You can’t stop coal…you can’t cap carbon… You can’t pay a kings ransom for energy You must not touch clean coal CCS as it is rubbish. Can you simply switch off.? Improbable.
  • 59. Top 10 Total Emission & Energy Consumption Total Emission Data has been adopted from Norwegian Institute of Science & Technology Carbon Footprint Data released in 2009 while total population and energy consumption figures are from World Bank data which is updated by them up to year 2005
  • 60. The haves & the have not syndrome Three of the 10 nations India, China, Brazil have very moderate per capita emission as well as low per capita energy consumption U.S. on the other hand is the biggest consumer in both areas with 25 times the energy and the per capita emission levels as India and even twice the levels of U.K. or France.
  • 61.
  • 62. So what then is Probable ? Stop chasing carbon ! Develop low cost clean energy by direct financing How ?
  • 63. WHAT WILL STOP CLIMATE CHANGE SHARPEN FOCUS ON ONLY 3 SCALABLE MASS PRODUCED GLOBAL SOLUTIONS : Solar power, Wind power, Rainforest Plantation Projects
  • 64.
  • 65.
  • 66.
  • 67. Others to follow in the climate change positive plan “clean energy” series CE 21…… onwards “Solutions in solar energy” CE 41……. onwards “Solutions in rainforest plantation” CE 61…….onwards “Solutions in wind energy” CE 81…….onwards “The perils of carbon trade” CE91……. onwards “ Cost reductions and positive solutions for clean energy and climate change initiatives to make it a profit plan.”
  • 68. Our references & acknowledgements Economy to Ecology Our goal is to help promote clean, safe and better practices in economy and ecology worldwide. Balanced, efficient and a little more sustainable. Read more in : Amazon Kindle Blog : Ecothrust http://tinyurl.com/kpujfx Accenture Report on Climate Change Allegheny Energy Data from Allegheny website CERA Reports on Carbon Economy Kyoto agreement & Data / UNFCCC & COP Data Norwegian Institute Of Science Report Our Previous presentation on CE-01 Telegraph U.K. and Wall Street Journal
  • 69. Other Presentations by User Business Risk Case Study – Ba 33 http://www.slideshare.net/SandipSen/business-risk-case-study-ba33 Climate Change Positive Solutions Series CE-01 http://www.slideshare.net/SandipSen/cop15bullshitting-15-years-on-climate-change
  • 70. Other presentations by user Business Risk management Series http://www.slideshare.net/SandipSen/living-dangerously-managing-risks-in-business-ba01ppt Business Risk Case Studies Ba31 http://www.slideshare.net/SandipSen/business-risk-case-study-ba31 Business Risk Case Studies Ba32 http://www.slideshare.net/SandipSen/business-risk-case-study-ba-32-1751378
  • 71.