Faster is better: Mobile broadband trends and opportunities
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1) The document discusses the rapid evolution of mobile broadband technology, with applications and bandwidth needs doubling every year. 2) It notes that 4G networks can provide bandwidth speeds up to 100Mbps, thousands of times faster than early 2G networks, and that consumer demand for bandwidth is virtually unlimited as new applications and services are developed. 3) The conclusion is that competitive pressures are driving continuous technological advances to increase speeds but also control costs, and that both mobile and fixed network infrastructure will need to accommodate unlimited growth in bandwidth demand from users wanting access anywhere and anytime across multiple devices.
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Faster is better: Mobile broadband trends and opportunities
- 1. 11 Faster is better Tero Kivisaari President, TeliaSonera Eurasia Presented at Digital Communications Event 2010 September 21st, 2010 Almaty
- 2. 2 Changing competitive dynamics Applications Web Browser & search engine Content distribution Hardware Access Telcos
- 3. 3 3G – UMTS 0.384 - 21.1 Mbit/s Ten thousand times faster in 10 years 2G – GSM/GPRS 9.6 kbps – 250 kbps 4G – LTE 100Mbit/s 2009 1999
- 4. 4 Pioneering mobile telecommunications 2009 World’s first mobile network 1956
- 5. 5 Mobile broadband is exploding – case Sweden 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 FY 06 FY 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Mobile Broadband subscriptions Thousands 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Mobile data growth Megabytes (‘000)
- 6. 6 Traffic will double every year 200,000 25,000 2007 Tbyte 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 100,000
- 7. 7 Eurasia - mobile broadband potential 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 08 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 09 Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 10 Jan 10 Apr Data grow th, volume index (January 2008 = 100) Moldcell – data growth 3G services launched October 1, 2008 0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 % Nepal Uzbekistan Tajikistan Moldova Kazakhstan Georgia Azerbaijan Data Other VAS Voice/Other Revenue split Country 3G license √ √ √ √ √ n/a n/a • In Q2 2010, UCell was awarded a 4G license in Uzbekistan
- 8. 8 Drivers for mobile broadband • Cost control • Perceived value for money • Changed consumption behaviour – Personal content – Always on • Laptops taking over as preferred PC • Smartphones
- 9. 9 Any screen – device independent
- 10. 10 1996 2000 2003 2006 2010 2012 2015 Bandwidth1 Mbit/s Time Basic Internet browsing Peer-to-peer music sharing • IPTV • Video streaming • Video on demand • HD TV • 3D in multiplayer gaming • Multiple streaming HD/3D TV • Mass-market cloud computing • Full-scale 3D emulation • Full 3D virtual collaboration (real-time & voice & 3D holography) • Other services yet to be invented! Demand for bandwidth is unlimited - services available at different bandwidth speeds 3G 2G 4G VDSL2 ISDN DSL ADSL ADSL2+, VDSL 0.128 1-2 6-16 25-50 50-100 100-250 >250 1) Downlink bandwidth supported by respective technologies, respective uplink speeds are considered accordingly Source: McKinsey Always the same question: “Will we need that much bandwidth?” █ Existing infrastructure █ FTTH required • True HD • Remote hosting • 3D TV and full interaction solutions
- 11. 11 Technology evolution - requires high capacity transmission solutions Radio Today up to 100Mbit/s Fiber Core Internet
- 12. 12 New pricing logic in mobile broadband - from flat rate to volume based Price related to usage Volume Speed 2G 3G 4G 1-10 MB/s 10-100 MB/s 0,1-1 MB/s 2 GB 10 GB 20 GB 30 GB
- 13. 13 Next step - value based pricing +Monthly fee Volume cap Defined speed
- 14. 14 Utilizing all possibilities in frequencies and technology Keeping costs under control • Rapid technology development with price pressure • Network planning • New technology more efficient • Spectrum more efficiently used with technology neutrality • Network sharing
- 15. 15 Conclusion • Competitive landscape changing • People want access and services – Device independent – Anywhere and anytime – Multi-tasking without losing speed – Significantly shorter response times – Technology not important • Unlimited demand for bandwidth – Technology evolution – speed increases constantly – Frequency re-use/re-farming and technology neutrality • Develop business models • Fixed network needed for multiple users at fixed locations and high capacity mobile access