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The Australian
Telecommunications
Industry

View online:
goo.gl/WzhYxV
The Australian Telecommunications Industry
Telecommunication companies are those that operate, maintain or provide access to facilities
for the transmission of voice and/or data via a wired and/or wireless network
Wired Telecommunications

Wireless Telecommunications

INDUSTRY GROWTH
8.9%

INDUSTRY GROWTH
4.3%

$

REVENUE $11.8bn
PROFIT $2.7bn
13 BUSINESSES

A market saturated with products,
where innovation (has been) lacking
for some time

$

REVENUE $20.8bn
PROFIT $2.7bn
56 BUSINESSES

Technology continues to advance at
a fast rate, facilitating a proliferation
of new products and services

The Analyst view of the Sector is somewhat basic…
Source: IBIS World Report (May 2013)
Telecommunications Industry by Product Bundles

Wired Telecommunications

Wireless Telecommunications

PSTN

Internet (ISPs)

Mobile Phones

Public Switched Telephone
Network: Mainly copper or
fibre based network carrying
primarily voice communication.
With high initial cost, typically
established by governments

Internet service providers
offering a mixture of fixed and
wireless technologies providing
data-access to the Internet

Mobile phone providers
offering handset
plans/bundles, either owning
the network (carriers) or
reselling the network (mobile
virtual network operators –
MVNOs)

Competition on at least three planes
Market Competitors across Products
PSTN

Internet (ISPs)

Mobile Phones

[30+ more…]

Competitive and commoditised - demand for constant connectivity is
driving product substitution & creation of new industries
The overall Landscape is changing
Technologic




Faster networks; 4G, NBN, wireless.
Smartphone revolution – mobile
applications, video streaming, GPS
mapping, internet browsing.
Increase in VOIP and IPTV demand.

Economic






HH income increasing.
Increasing population.
Businesses need for e-commerce services.
Falling cost of data storage
Rising cost of imports on AUD Forex

Social





Environmental

Gen Y early adopters of technology.
Consumer desire for constant
connectivity.
Highest penetration of smartphone
adoption (67% of users)




Political




Gov’t plan to build NBN.
Gov’t owns/sells wireless spectrum.
Gov’t sets ownership rules limiting
overseas ownership; Telstra and NBN.

Uncertainty about future application of
carbon tax – on power costs
Provisions need to be made for hardware
recycling

Legal




Spectrum licence required
ACCC guidelines in relation to pricing and
competition.
ISPs must pay Telstra for fixed line
Internet access

Social demand & technological advancements continue to put
pressure on new growth – NBN as a political/disruptor factor
PSTN: High margins possible, but being eroded by substitutes
Less attractive mature market
High capital outlay required
Heavy regulation of entry

Entry Threat
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Majors use own network
Several equipment suppliers
Wholesale price regulated

Supply Power

Many customers, few players
Price/margin regulated
Switching costs for buyers

Buyer Power

Duopoly
Established Market Share
High sector exit costs

Rivalry

Substitutes

VoIP & Mobile services
Low exit barriers from service
Substitutes offer higher utility

Profitable for incumbents but unattractive for new entrants
Internet: High margins possible, but being eroded by
substitutes
Low entry barriers at low end
Capital needed to enter top tier
Opp for entering with new Technology

Entry Threat
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Majors use own network
Telstra control node access
Gov’t regulated supply

Supply Power

Many customers but many
choices available
Switching costs are falling

Buyer Power

300+ ISPs; Top 4 make up 75% of sector
Acquisition phase during mid-2000s

Rivalry

Substitutes

Some substitution to Mobile
Product substitution within
sector – eg, fixed to wireless

Number of opportunities: need to find a point of difference
Mobile: Becoming THE Connected device for many consumers
Low entry barriers for resellers
Many niche-focused players
Price competition for many

Entry Threat
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

3 Major players own network
Device manufacturer power

Supply Power

High number of choices
Short innovation cycles
Demand for more

Buyer Power

Intense rivalry, extending to 54+ Mobile
Virtual Network Operators
Including Aldi, Woolworths

Rivalry

Substitutes

Some substitution to Mobile
Product substitution within
sector – eg, fixed to wireless

Demand attractive for competitors – but can limit margins
PSTN: now being eroded by a number of substitutes
Services in Operation (Indexed)
Forward Estimates

100
90

Peaked at ~11.5m SIOs in
2002 – since entered decline

Index (vs Peak Point)

80
70

Will have reduced by more
than 40% by 2020

60
50
40

59% EBITDA margin
possible, as capital
investment has ended and no
new entrants are
feasible/attractive

30
20
10
-

PSTN

Cost-minimisation to
maintain profit

Maturity & decline - to be managed for profit by incumbents
Internet: characterised by step-changes in technology
Services in Operation (Indexed)
Forward Estimates

100
90

~20% EBITDA margins for
established players

Index (vs Peak Point)

80
70

Rapid growth in new tech –
old drops away quickly

60
50
40

Players now faced with
splitting focus between
Mobile broadband and/of
Fixed evolution to Fibre

30
20
10
-

PSTN

DialUp

Fixed BB

NBN

Mob Bband

Manage timely migration
into new technology

Ongoing success based on shifting with evolving platforms
Mobile: platforms continue to evolve- switching happens fast
Services in Operation (Indexed)
Forward Estimates

100
90

~20-30% EBITDA margins for
established players

Index (vs Peak Point)

80
70

Market size starting to
mature – extra services help

60
50
40
30

Choice can be driven by new
network, new device, new
services, and increasingly
data/Internet function

Internet Enabled

20
10
-

PSTN

Internet

Analog

Pre-3G

3G

4G (5G?)

Need to find a tech edge or
other point of difference

Players can focus/differentiate: network, utility, devices…
Overall strategy needs to manage multiple products together

Manage Portfolio of Products
Market Share

High

High
Mobile
Internet

4G

Growth Rate

Invest

Low

ADSL

Determine where to sit on Innovation Waves

Low

Fibre
Decide?

3G
Milk

PSTN

Kill
2G

Continual assessment of product/service portfolio over time…
Do we position to Drive, Follow… or Miss, the next step-change
NBN: A Telco Game Changer?
Impact of this shift is more uncertain with government change
Change in Government

Change in Leadership

Change in Outcome?

-

-

- What does a new
government, new leadership
and new rollout mean for NBN?

Shift from FTTP to FTTN
Current construction halted
Rollout locations mixed

Ziggy Switkowski (ex-Telstra)
Justin Milne (ex-BigPond)
JB Rousselot (ex-Telstra)

If the rollout is delayed/reduced…

If rollout is accelerated…

Existing PSTN margins can be
maintained for longer

Demand for and innovation
in high-data services go up

More customers will join 4G
& wireless in the interim

New competitors: ranging
from resellers to TV
broadcasters

Range of investment &
development areas will wait..

Existing networks lose value
and ability to monetise

Hofstadter’s Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even
when you take into account Hofstadter’s Law…
Is there other clear space to develop a point of difference?

High

Relative Sector Strengths & Gaps… more Red Ocean
9

Commodity Drivers

Service Drivers

1

8

2

New Tech

3

Stickiness

4

Uses of the Pipes

5

1

Invest to Evolve network
Speed/Capacity
2

7

Potential to shine in
Customer Service levels

Offering Level

6
5

3

4

Mobile: new Devices
Internet: new Tools

3
2

4

Low

1

Bundle services together;
Lock longer contracts

0

Find new things to put
through the pipe:
Media, Content, Services
PSTN

Internet

Mobile

Over deliver on core – or move to something new/different

5
The Big Question for Telecommunications: What Comes Next?

Maintain

Lead in
Networks

Lead in
Relationships

Manage Costs
Down for Profit

Improve on
Existing Tech

Supplier Focus –
Devices, Tech

Compete/Sacrifice
on Price

Build/Own the
Next Network

Be Best at
Customer Service

Focus vs Broad Target on:
- Consumers
- Small Business
- Enterprise
- Government
Red Competition

Fixed
(Fibre)

Mobile
(5G?)

Invest for Future
Innovations

Stores

Call
Centres

Bundle Telco
Services/Contract
s

Add Uses for
Connections
Add Services
(VoIP, Data Storage)

Invest in Emerging
(eg Mob Payments)

Add Media
Content (TV, News)
Build It

Partner

Blue Differentiation

Players want more than One… but can’t bet on everything
Despite an increase in Optus market share, revenues are falling.

= 66.2%

+

S T R AT E G I C P I L L A R S
DRIVE BREAKTHROUGHS IN
CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE.

REVENUES DOWN 4.6%

27.5%

4G
57%
POSTPAID
306K NEW POSTPAID
CUSTOMERS

BUILD NETWORKS FOR DIGITAL
SERVICES.

•

CAPTURE GROWTH FROM
MOBILE DATA.

•

NPAT DOWN 12%

•

BUILD GROUP EFFICIENCIES.

LAUNCHED
MAY 13

64% OF
REVENUE
DRIVEN BY
OPTUS MOBILE

AUSTRALIAN
BUSINESS AWARD
KIDS HELPLINE ‘MAKE
CYBERSPACE A BETTER PLACE’

The carrier is now focused on retention and increasing ARPU by delivering
superior customer service .
Source: Nielsen 2013
Vodafone didn’t anticipate the rapid penetration of smartphones… #vodafail

+

= 64.7%

S T R AT E G I C P I L L A R S
RETAIN AND DEFEND THE
BASE.
•

OPERATIONAL
CONSOLIDATION.

18.9%
MOBILE AND WIRELESS
BROADBAND SERVICES
ESTABLISHED

REVENUES
DOWN 9%
(JUNE 2012)

551K CUSTOMERS
CHURNED 1H 2013

2002

MAY 2012
BILL MORROW
APPOINTED AS
NEW CEO

4G

JUNE
2013

Vodafone’s mantra is to earn back trust by overhauling infrastructure and
rebranding through changes in leadership.
Source: Nielsen 2013
Despite Telco Industry revenue and NPAT dropping, iiNet showed significant
increases
S T R AT E G I C P I L L A R S

20 YEARS
MICHAEL
MALONE AS CEO

15%

NPAT UP 64%

20,000

SALES, SERVICE AND THE
NBN

•

REVENUES UP 13%

•

PRODUCTS PER
CUSTOMER

•

BUSINESS SEGMENT

•

INTEGRATION AND COSTOUTS

NBN
Customers

Sustainable growth through strategic acquisitions ensuring the iiNet customer
service model is incorporated
Source: iinet Annual Report 2013
Simple sales model with a unlimited plans paying dividends for TPG
REVENUES UP 9%

S T R AT E G I C P I L L A R S
FIBRE TO HIGH DENSITY

FOCUS ON VALUE

•

MOBILE

•

10%

•

•

NPAT UP 64%

BROADBAND

BROADBAND AND
TELEPHONY SERVICES

100Mbs
FIBRE OPTIC BROADBAND

Building a fibre network with a focus on high density to compete against NBN
while delivering value to everyday Australians
Source: Nielsen 2013
Telstra Rivals: Placing Bets on the Board

Maintain
Manage Costs
Down for Profit

Lead in
Networks

Lead in
Relationships

Add Uses for
Connections

Supplier Focus –
Devices, Tech

Add Services

Build/Own the
Next Network

Be Best at
Customer Service

Invest in Emerging

Fixed
(Fibre)

Compete/Sacrifice
on Price

Improve on
Existing Tech

Stores

Mobile
(5G?)

Invest for Future
Innovations

Call
Centres

Bundle Telco
Services/Contracts

(VoIP, Data Storage)

(eg Mob Payments)

Add Media
Content (TV, News)

Build It

Partner

Relationship management continues to be a hygiene for this
industry, with differentiation to be achieved through investment in
new content and services innovation.
The Australian
Telecommunications
Industry

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Australian Telco Sector Analysis

  • 2. The Australian Telecommunications Industry Telecommunication companies are those that operate, maintain or provide access to facilities for the transmission of voice and/or data via a wired and/or wireless network Wired Telecommunications Wireless Telecommunications INDUSTRY GROWTH 8.9% INDUSTRY GROWTH 4.3% $ REVENUE $11.8bn PROFIT $2.7bn 13 BUSINESSES A market saturated with products, where innovation (has been) lacking for some time $ REVENUE $20.8bn PROFIT $2.7bn 56 BUSINESSES Technology continues to advance at a fast rate, facilitating a proliferation of new products and services The Analyst view of the Sector is somewhat basic… Source: IBIS World Report (May 2013)
  • 3. Telecommunications Industry by Product Bundles Wired Telecommunications Wireless Telecommunications PSTN Internet (ISPs) Mobile Phones Public Switched Telephone Network: Mainly copper or fibre based network carrying primarily voice communication. With high initial cost, typically established by governments Internet service providers offering a mixture of fixed and wireless technologies providing data-access to the Internet Mobile phone providers offering handset plans/bundles, either owning the network (carriers) or reselling the network (mobile virtual network operators – MVNOs) Competition on at least three planes
  • 4. Market Competitors across Products PSTN Internet (ISPs) Mobile Phones [30+ more…] Competitive and commoditised - demand for constant connectivity is driving product substitution & creation of new industries
  • 5. The overall Landscape is changing Technologic    Faster networks; 4G, NBN, wireless. Smartphone revolution – mobile applications, video streaming, GPS mapping, internet browsing. Increase in VOIP and IPTV demand. Economic      HH income increasing. Increasing population. Businesses need for e-commerce services. Falling cost of data storage Rising cost of imports on AUD Forex Social    Environmental Gen Y early adopters of technology. Consumer desire for constant connectivity. Highest penetration of smartphone adoption (67% of users)   Political    Gov’t plan to build NBN. Gov’t owns/sells wireless spectrum. Gov’t sets ownership rules limiting overseas ownership; Telstra and NBN. Uncertainty about future application of carbon tax – on power costs Provisions need to be made for hardware recycling Legal    Spectrum licence required ACCC guidelines in relation to pricing and competition. ISPs must pay Telstra for fixed line Internet access Social demand & technological advancements continue to put pressure on new growth – NBN as a political/disruptor factor
  • 6. PSTN: High margins possible, but being eroded by substitutes Less attractive mature market High capital outlay required Heavy regulation of entry Entry Threat 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Majors use own network Several equipment suppliers Wholesale price regulated Supply Power Many customers, few players Price/margin regulated Switching costs for buyers Buyer Power Duopoly Established Market Share High sector exit costs Rivalry Substitutes VoIP & Mobile services Low exit barriers from service Substitutes offer higher utility Profitable for incumbents but unattractive for new entrants
  • 7. Internet: High margins possible, but being eroded by substitutes Low entry barriers at low end Capital needed to enter top tier Opp for entering with new Technology Entry Threat 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Majors use own network Telstra control node access Gov’t regulated supply Supply Power Many customers but many choices available Switching costs are falling Buyer Power 300+ ISPs; Top 4 make up 75% of sector Acquisition phase during mid-2000s Rivalry Substitutes Some substitution to Mobile Product substitution within sector – eg, fixed to wireless Number of opportunities: need to find a point of difference
  • 8. Mobile: Becoming THE Connected device for many consumers Low entry barriers for resellers Many niche-focused players Price competition for many Entry Threat 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3 Major players own network Device manufacturer power Supply Power High number of choices Short innovation cycles Demand for more Buyer Power Intense rivalry, extending to 54+ Mobile Virtual Network Operators Including Aldi, Woolworths Rivalry Substitutes Some substitution to Mobile Product substitution within sector – eg, fixed to wireless Demand attractive for competitors – but can limit margins
  • 9. PSTN: now being eroded by a number of substitutes Services in Operation (Indexed) Forward Estimates 100 90 Peaked at ~11.5m SIOs in 2002 – since entered decline Index (vs Peak Point) 80 70 Will have reduced by more than 40% by 2020 60 50 40 59% EBITDA margin possible, as capital investment has ended and no new entrants are feasible/attractive 30 20 10 - PSTN Cost-minimisation to maintain profit Maturity & decline - to be managed for profit by incumbents
  • 10. Internet: characterised by step-changes in technology Services in Operation (Indexed) Forward Estimates 100 90 ~20% EBITDA margins for established players Index (vs Peak Point) 80 70 Rapid growth in new tech – old drops away quickly 60 50 40 Players now faced with splitting focus between Mobile broadband and/of Fixed evolution to Fibre 30 20 10 - PSTN DialUp Fixed BB NBN Mob Bband Manage timely migration into new technology Ongoing success based on shifting with evolving platforms
  • 11. Mobile: platforms continue to evolve- switching happens fast Services in Operation (Indexed) Forward Estimates 100 90 ~20-30% EBITDA margins for established players Index (vs Peak Point) 80 70 Market size starting to mature – extra services help 60 50 40 30 Choice can be driven by new network, new device, new services, and increasingly data/Internet function Internet Enabled 20 10 - PSTN Internet Analog Pre-3G 3G 4G (5G?) Need to find a tech edge or other point of difference Players can focus/differentiate: network, utility, devices…
  • 12. Overall strategy needs to manage multiple products together Manage Portfolio of Products Market Share High High Mobile Internet 4G Growth Rate Invest Low ADSL Determine where to sit on Innovation Waves Low Fibre Decide? 3G Milk PSTN Kill 2G Continual assessment of product/service portfolio over time… Do we position to Drive, Follow… or Miss, the next step-change
  • 13. NBN: A Telco Game Changer? Impact of this shift is more uncertain with government change Change in Government Change in Leadership Change in Outcome? - - - What does a new government, new leadership and new rollout mean for NBN? Shift from FTTP to FTTN Current construction halted Rollout locations mixed Ziggy Switkowski (ex-Telstra) Justin Milne (ex-BigPond) JB Rousselot (ex-Telstra) If the rollout is delayed/reduced… If rollout is accelerated… Existing PSTN margins can be maintained for longer Demand for and innovation in high-data services go up More customers will join 4G & wireless in the interim New competitors: ranging from resellers to TV broadcasters Range of investment & development areas will wait.. Existing networks lose value and ability to monetise Hofstadter’s Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter’s Law…
  • 14. Is there other clear space to develop a point of difference? High Relative Sector Strengths & Gaps… more Red Ocean 9 Commodity Drivers Service Drivers 1 8 2 New Tech 3 Stickiness 4 Uses of the Pipes 5 1 Invest to Evolve network Speed/Capacity 2 7 Potential to shine in Customer Service levels Offering Level 6 5 3 4 Mobile: new Devices Internet: new Tools 3 2 4 Low 1 Bundle services together; Lock longer contracts 0 Find new things to put through the pipe: Media, Content, Services PSTN Internet Mobile Over deliver on core – or move to something new/different 5
  • 15. The Big Question for Telecommunications: What Comes Next? Maintain Lead in Networks Lead in Relationships Manage Costs Down for Profit Improve on Existing Tech Supplier Focus – Devices, Tech Compete/Sacrifice on Price Build/Own the Next Network Be Best at Customer Service Focus vs Broad Target on: - Consumers - Small Business - Enterprise - Government Red Competition Fixed (Fibre) Mobile (5G?) Invest for Future Innovations Stores Call Centres Bundle Telco Services/Contract s Add Uses for Connections Add Services (VoIP, Data Storage) Invest in Emerging (eg Mob Payments) Add Media Content (TV, News) Build It Partner Blue Differentiation Players want more than One… but can’t bet on everything
  • 16. Despite an increase in Optus market share, revenues are falling. = 66.2% + S T R AT E G I C P I L L A R S DRIVE BREAKTHROUGHS IN CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE. REVENUES DOWN 4.6% 27.5% 4G 57% POSTPAID 306K NEW POSTPAID CUSTOMERS BUILD NETWORKS FOR DIGITAL SERVICES. • CAPTURE GROWTH FROM MOBILE DATA. • NPAT DOWN 12% • BUILD GROUP EFFICIENCIES. LAUNCHED MAY 13 64% OF REVENUE DRIVEN BY OPTUS MOBILE AUSTRALIAN BUSINESS AWARD KIDS HELPLINE ‘MAKE CYBERSPACE A BETTER PLACE’ The carrier is now focused on retention and increasing ARPU by delivering superior customer service . Source: Nielsen 2013
  • 17. Vodafone didn’t anticipate the rapid penetration of smartphones… #vodafail + = 64.7% S T R AT E G I C P I L L A R S RETAIN AND DEFEND THE BASE. • OPERATIONAL CONSOLIDATION. 18.9% MOBILE AND WIRELESS BROADBAND SERVICES ESTABLISHED REVENUES DOWN 9% (JUNE 2012) 551K CUSTOMERS CHURNED 1H 2013 2002 MAY 2012 BILL MORROW APPOINTED AS NEW CEO 4G JUNE 2013 Vodafone’s mantra is to earn back trust by overhauling infrastructure and rebranding through changes in leadership. Source: Nielsen 2013
  • 18. Despite Telco Industry revenue and NPAT dropping, iiNet showed significant increases S T R AT E G I C P I L L A R S 20 YEARS MICHAEL MALONE AS CEO 15% NPAT UP 64% 20,000 SALES, SERVICE AND THE NBN • REVENUES UP 13% • PRODUCTS PER CUSTOMER • BUSINESS SEGMENT • INTEGRATION AND COSTOUTS NBN Customers Sustainable growth through strategic acquisitions ensuring the iiNet customer service model is incorporated Source: iinet Annual Report 2013
  • 19. Simple sales model with a unlimited plans paying dividends for TPG REVENUES UP 9% S T R AT E G I C P I L L A R S FIBRE TO HIGH DENSITY FOCUS ON VALUE • MOBILE • 10% • • NPAT UP 64% BROADBAND BROADBAND AND TELEPHONY SERVICES 100Mbs FIBRE OPTIC BROADBAND Building a fibre network with a focus on high density to compete against NBN while delivering value to everyday Australians Source: Nielsen 2013
  • 20. Telstra Rivals: Placing Bets on the Board Maintain Manage Costs Down for Profit Lead in Networks Lead in Relationships Add Uses for Connections Supplier Focus – Devices, Tech Add Services Build/Own the Next Network Be Best at Customer Service Invest in Emerging Fixed (Fibre) Compete/Sacrifice on Price Improve on Existing Tech Stores Mobile (5G?) Invest for Future Innovations Call Centres Bundle Telco Services/Contracts (VoIP, Data Storage) (eg Mob Payments) Add Media Content (TV, News) Build It Partner Relationship management continues to be a hygiene for this industry, with differentiation to be achieved through investment in new content and services innovation.

Editor's Notes

  1. Industry analysts define the industry as companies that operate, maintain or provide access to facilities for the transmission of voice and/or data via a wired and/or a wireless network. Industry analysts place telecommunications in either a Wired or Wireless bucket, using these sub industries as basis for their analysis.For the purpose of our presentation we are defining the Australian telco industry as a domestic market; we will be touching on companies that are part of regional or global compny but our focus will be on concentrating on their presence in the Australian market.Firstly, the wired telecommunications industry is currently declining at almost 9% YoY, where revenues sit at $11.8bn and profit at $2.7bn (Source: IBIS World Report (May 2013)) – a market in our view that is saturated with products where innovation has been lacking for some time. Secondly, the wireless telecommunications industry is currently illustrating a 4.3% growth, where revenues sit at $20.8bn but profit again at $2.7bn Source: IBIS World Report (May 2013)) - where technology continues to advance at a fast rate, facilitating a proliferation of new products and services.Quite simply, we regard this view to be too basic to reflect a very complex and interwoven industry such as the Australian telecommunications industry.but concentrating on their presence in the Australian market only
  2. The Telecommunications industry landscape is changing. We’ve looked at the environment and there are a range of factors that affect the industry. Factors which are of low influence are; Economic: - WIRELESS: Household incomes are increasing and people are spending more money on value added mobile phone features. - ALL: The Australian population is increasing - ISP: Businesses desire for E-commerce business services. Environment:- There is uncertainty about future power costs as the government embarks on removing the carbon tax.- Telco’s and handset manufacturers need to make provision for the disposal of old handsets. Legal:- WIRELESS: Competitors need a spectrum licence with allows operators to provide mobile services within a determined geographic area. - WIRLESS: Companies to acquire a licence from ACMA.- WIRLESS: Competitors to adhere to the guidelines set by the ACCC.- WIRED: ACCC regulation of pricing of line rental access by Telstra and the pricing of mobile phone calls.- WIRED: ACCC sets price of wholesale line rental and unconditional local loop access fee.- WIRED: Industry became self-regulated in 1997 with the introduction of the Telecommunications Act.- ISP: ISP’s providing a fixed line Internet access service must pay Telstra a line sharing service cost.- ISP: Adhere to ACCC guidelines The environmental factors that are going to heavily influence and impact the industry in the future are Political, Social and Technology. Political: - WIRELESS: The Government owns the spectrum and sells it at a determined set price.- The introduction of the NBN.- The NBN will provide faster fixed line wired services, PAYTV, data and international calls.- WIRED Government policies such as the universal service obligation influence the spread of the telecommunications industry. They subsidise services to regional and remote Australia to ensure they have telecommunications access.- WIRED: Legislation will ensure NBN remains Australian owned.- ISP: The NBN will benefit ISP’s due to the speed of the network and subsequently the ISP’s offering.   Social:- WIRELES: Generation Y to be early adopters and major beneficiaries of wireless technology.- ALL: Consumes desire for constant connectivity.- ISP: Consumers desire for online entertainment; movies, games, Internet browsing.- 67% of mobile users have a smartphone Technology:- WIRELSS: Consumers are upgrading their 3G phones and broadband plans due to the introduction of digital reader devices and smartphones. - WIRELESS: In the next 5 years there will be an increase of wireless data card subscriptions (eg: Dongles) due to the 4G networks- WIRELESS: Wireless infrastructure enables voice (VOIP), data services, and radio and television relays.- WIRELESS: Smartphone revolution driving wireless growth – mobile applications; online banking, GPS mapping and video streaming.- WIRELESS: New smartphone devices with larger screens allow consumers to watch live feeds (sport / movies), video calling and Internet browsing. - ISP: The NBN will allow ISP to deliver faster products and larger download data limits.- Increase in VOIP and IPTV demand.- WIRED: Faster wireless services (probably porters substitution point), VOIP. Social demand and technological advancements continue to put pressure on new growth. The NBN is also a political / disruption factor.  Sources: IBIS World; Wired Telecommunications Network operation in Australia Industry report – May 2013 IBIS World; Wireless Telecommunications Carriers in Australia Industry report – September 2013 IBIS World; Internet Service providers in Australia Industry report – May 2013  
  3. PSTN is declining. Coverage and Reliability have been the key success factors. PSTN industry has been a duopoly for over a decade. Most of Australia was covered by the two major players and the competition for market share is primarily between the two major players. The market share of other competitors is almost insignificant.Suppliers: Major operators have built and maintaining their own network on which they provide various services. For smaller service providers, supplier power is high as they are dependent on Telstra/Optus network. For network equipment suppliers of the core network infrastructure, the power is low because market share is controlled by two big players and they have a large number of suppliers to choose from. LOWBuyers: Switching cost is high for businesses using PSTN. The demand has no effect on price due to regulations. Buyers are ‘stuck’ with line rentals, call charges and a low choice of value added services (voice mail etc). In emergencies, fixed phones are believed to be more reliable than mobile phones. A high number of substitutes in the form of VOIP, mobile calls. LOWNew entrants: Other service providers are dependent on Telstra and Optus for the network and therefore overpowered by these big players. A new entrant building their own copper network now is unlikely although there may be attempts to use the profitable model ‘build+wholesale+retail’ by companies with high investment capacity. LOWSubstitutes: Internet and Mobile pretty much make PSTN redundant in many scenarios except in few such as very high reliability requirement such as medical, government etc HIGHRivalry: The rivalry is high between the two competitors but overall rivalry amongst all players in the market was low. LOWIn this picture of the telecom industry, as an established telecom company you may stay in business because of your heavy investment in network but there won't be many new entrants in PSTN with vanilla 'voice call' offerings.There is definitely no growth in this market and although ARPU is steady,overall profits are declining rapidly as customers have switched to other substitutes such as VOIP and mobile phone calls.Profitable for incumbents but unattractive for new entrants
  4. Internet changed the dynamics. If PSTN was about connecting people, internet allowed people to connect and stay in touch in more than one way (emails, messenger, VOIP calls)As the telecommunication companies applied innovation and leveraged their biggest assets, their networks, to provide data connections i.e. the internet. Speed, bandwidth became key success factors. The internet impacted speed of business globally and impacted the telecommunication industry itself. Supply chains, distribution channels were reshaped as internet created new communication channels.Suppliers: Supplier power higher for the network owners such as Telstra and Optus from the perspective of smaller service providers. For the suppliers of network equipment the power decreased further due to globalisation, new designs of components influenced by new software and commoditisation of components. HIGHERBuyers: Buyer power is relatively higher with more choice of internet services, data plans from a wider range of providers from low cost to premium services. Switching internet provider is relatively easy for residential customers but still not very easy for business customers. HIGHERNew entrants: There has been increase in number of smaller new ISPs but a decrease in the number of large-medium size ISPs due to acquisitions.Definitely lower barriers of entry for service provides and a range of services to offer from plain VOIP calling cards to premium broadband or cable connections. HIGHERSubstitutes: There is no real alternative to internet. LOWERRivalry: Increased rivalry as customers switching from big providers to new service providers for better price, better customer service. HIGHERThere are a number of opportunities for new entrants, many options to differentiate on and better chances of survival due to growing market size.
  5. Mobile disrupted. PSTN connected people, Internet provided them many ways to stay in touch and mobile allowed them to be connected at anytime and from anywhere (almost).The major telecommunication companies attempted to supplement but in some instances cannibalised their own PSTN network and fixed line internet by investing in mobile networks and by providing mobile services. The mobility was a great value add to the telecom offering. Mobile technology also opened up the telecommunication industry to whole range of new entrants.Suppliers: Big players have invested in wireless network infrastructure and extended market share by cannibalising their own fixed line products. HIGHERBuyers: Buyer power has increased further putting pressure on price. High churn rate, short product lifecycle is making buyers are demanding more innovation and more new services more frequently. HIGHERNew entrants: Lower entry barriers with more opportunities to target niche market or compete on price. HIGHERSubstitutes: Partial substitutes in the form of free wi-fi zones but with less convenient (need to authenticate with every new wi-fi), high speed fixed internet could challenge high speed wireless network on media streaming type of services but no real substitute for mobility. LOWERRivalry: Higher due to more new entrants and disruptive trends, diversification of computer manufacturers into telco industry – Apple, Google etc, and media companies too. HIGHERMobile explosive growth has slowed down and there is a focus on innovation in high-speed, high capacity network to compete against the challenge of high speed fixed internet. Demand is attractive for competitors – but can limit margins
  6. Speaker Notes:-Government policies and its influences in the industryFor the last twenty years, Australian telecommunications policy has focused on promoting private sector network and service competition at every level and the Commonwealth has progressively sought to exit its remaining Telstra shareholding. However, the Australian Government is now re-entering the telecommunications sector through NBN Co. These things highlight again that political factors and government regulations continue to play an important role in shaping this industry.NBN board had a major restructuring with Mr.Ziggy,who had worked with both Telstra and Optus ,being appointed as the Chairman of the NBN Co. Now with board undergoing a strategic review and analysis of the project, and re negotiating with Telstra for FTTN (Fibre To node) policy, Mr.Ziggy’s leadership skills will be put to test.Speed and bandwidth of NBN will revolutionise the industryProvide opportunities for content providers, TV broadcasters to use NBN infrastructure to deliver all entertainment video content in HD format and interact directly with the consumers. .NBN will accelerate the growth of media content.In home, video phones will begin rivalry with skype and google talk. Ability of resellers to purchase and utilise NBN infrastructure will attract more companies into the market.This will bring in new players to compete within industry.http://www.fool.com.au/2013/10/08/more-customers-joining-4g-ahead-of-nbn-rollout/ConsConsumer/Business Uptake of NBNPolitical issues delaying rollout over an extended timeFor the industry to successfully utilise all benefits of NBN, they must be able to migrate people towards NBN. There must be more applications that require high data usage, which cannot be satisfied by existing systems, hence pushing people towards NBN.the possible disruption in transitioning services and customers to new technologies, the uncertainty around political changes and the complex nature of the roll out over an extended period of time, are all issues that could have detrimental impacts.
  7. OptusOwned and managed by Singtel Group, Optus is the company’s largest subsidiary.Optus includes Virgin Mobile (MVNO) in their portfolio. With 27.5% marketshare (installed base), Optus and Virgin are the 2nd largest mobile network provider in Australia. There current installed base has increased 2pts in the past 12months, although a fall in revenues indicates that ARPU has decreased driven by the hypercompetition and price wars.In terms of share of sales, there is a duopoly for Optus with Apple and Samsung accounting for two thirds of the total business. This indicated strong supplier power, which proves to be difficult for Optus. These companies display ‘bullying’ tactics, which effect the subsidization and profit margin for Optus.The cash cow for Optus is the mobile business unit which accounts for 64% of revenue is driven by the mobile business unit indicating that In FY13 Optus added 306K new postpaid customers adding 2% to their postpaid business YoY. Overall Optus has seen declines in revenue and NPAT YoY. Optus corporate have qualified this loss as a result of operating restructures and group consolidation. After launching 4G network in late 2012, the carrier has seen significant sales of LTE handsets accounting for just under 800K sales (new and upgrades).In May 2013, SingTel put up its Australian subsidiary Optus' satellite business for sale, soliciting offers in excess of AUD2bn (US$1.9bn), in order to help finance its expansion plans. However, the fact that Optus' satellite business operates key facilities for the Australian military is likely to mean that any deal will be subject to close scrutiny by the government.Overall, Optus is focused on driving breakthroughs in customer experience. This is certainly a hygiene factor in this industry, where customer service is a gimme. Singtel made significant improvements to their sales and distribution channel to improve the retail experience for their customers. In Australia, they implemented a new retail strategy that involved rationalising several third-party distribution partnerships which resulted in the termination of the reseller relationships with Allphones and Telechoice. This is a major change for the brand, allowing them to fully focus on core Optus-branded activity, giving them more direct control over the customer experience. Optus is also building networks for digital services having upgraded more than 4,000 3G sites to deliver faster data speeds and more consistent in-building coverage for customers. Thirdly, Optus are capturing growth and revenue from mobile data. Teleco businesses are transforming from traditional carriers of voice services into modern digital businesses. To capture the revenue opportunities driven by the proliferation of mobile devices and customers’ increasing usage of data, Optus introduced simplified mobile data price plans. In addition they also reviewed their handset subsidies, implemented simplified and tiered price plans as well as streamlined bundle offers to improve the yield and profitability of data services and sustain continual network investments. Last year, SingTel went through a significant reorganisation. Twelve months on, the new structure leverages their global scale by establishing shared procurement services, as well as combining networks and IT functions, and offering digital initiatives. They still continue to explore opportunities for additional savings by including their regional mobile associates in joint procurement arrangements for items including handsets and network infrastructure.   It is evident that Optus is focused on the core customer experience to defend the base.
  8. VodafoneMajor strategic backing from UK’s the Vodafone Group (50%) and Hong Kong’s Hutchison Whampoa (50%). Includes Crazy Johns (MVNO) in their portfolio.In June 2009 it was announced that Vodafone Australia has been acquired by Hutchison Telecommunications in an effort to expand their marketshare and network profile. The company is known as VHA, however consumer facing brand is Vodafone Australia.Both networks now continue to operate under the one brand with 3 Mobile was officially ‘turned off’ in August 2013 with all remaining customers migrating across to Vodafone.Vodafone has 18.9% marketshare with massive declines YoY. Since the start of the year, Vodafone has seen 550K customers church representing a service revenue loss of almost $300M.Vodafone has seen huge churns in their customer base driven by their network issues and lack of investment into their service infrastructure. Former CEO Nigel Dews was held responsible for the decline in their marketshare and in 2012, Bill Morrow will brought into the organisation to take over the reigns of this struggling organisation. Bill is recognised as one of the global telecommunications industry's most experienced executives. He is the former Chief Executive of Clearwire Incorporated and was previously Chief Executive of the Pacific Gas and Electric Company. He is a former Europe Chief Executive with Vodafone Group and has run the Group's businesses in Japan and the UK. He, together with a new leadership team are tasked with changing the business’ course. They endeavor to meet this challenge through a blend of product improvements, internal realignment, stronger customer engagement, consistency in communication, and brand smarts.As a leader, Bill is said to be approachable and encourages open communication two-way communication with the team. He defines his turn-around strategy as being built from the bottom up with the customer at the core. Since his appointment there have been three major restructures, with over 25% of their workforce made redundant. Overall, Vodafone continues to invest in programs to stop the bleeding of their base. Accelerate network upgrade and expansion plans said to be worth $1B over 2 years to combat connection issues that continue to plague the carrier. This is continually supported with heavy marketing investment to repair the brand’s image. Vodafone also launched a ‘money back guarentee’ offer, where customers can cancel their contracts if they weren’t satisfied with their network coverage.Launched 4G LTE Service in June 2013, almost two years behind Telstra.Continue with integration of Vodafone and 3 Business Units – Operational Consolidation including retail stores, network and operations.Engage is aggressive cost cutting efforts including the closure of their MVNO Crazy Johns.Consolidated contact centre to Mumbai and HobartWhile VHA has tried to quickly resolve its network issues by overhauling its infrastructure, the operator has yet to demonstrate a clear strategy to prevent further customer churn.