Continuing on describing what could be the future of nuclear industry, Gilles MATHONNIERE, economical expert at the I-tésé (CEA) explained the place of nuclear energy in 2050 and 2100 and the importance of Fast Reactors in the energy mix for electricity generation.

1. TECHNICAL AND
ECONOMICAL ASPECTS OF
FUTURE NUCLEAR
ENERGY
ON THE HORIZON 2100
GILLES MATHONNIERE
DEN/DANS/I-TÉSÉ
Atoms for the Future 2013, SFEN October 22nd 2013
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1

2. CONTEXT
NUCLEAR ENERGY COMPETITIVENESS
THE PLACE OF THE NUCLEAR ENERGY IN
SCENARIOS ON THE HORIZON 2050
NUCLEAR ENERGY IN 2100
CONCLUSIONS

3. DETERMINING FACTORS FOR THE NUCLEAR
ENERGY IN THE FUTURE ENERGY MIX
•
•
•
National Policy
Economy
Complémentarity with the other forms of energy :
 The grid will be shared all the energies
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4. THE ENERGY OBJECTIVES OF FRANCE
International objectives :
• Mainly climate related
European objectives :
• The European Energy-Climate Plan
and the 3x20 rules
National objectives :
• The Grenelle debate on the environment
• Post Grenelle government commitments of various natures:
• Additional technical measures for reaching 2020
objectives
• The committments of the current government :
• Nuclear share
• Renovation and building of new housing…
 these objectives are declined in very important set of
economic, legal, statutory, fiscal devices, R&D programs, ….
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5. TOWARDS NEW USES OF ELECTRICITY AND NUCLEAR
ENERGY
Electricity traditionnal market will progress :
•From the « energy transition » to the « productive recovery »
To relocate strongly energy-consuming industries
Electricity will develop for new uses :
• Substitution for fossile energies and efficiency improvement policy in
Industry
• Electric buildings with very high energy performance
•Mobility
• Information, Communication, Digital Society
The (new) nuclear energy will meet new uses :
• District heating (ex. Paris by Nogent nuclear plant)
• Hydrogen massive production
• Silicium PV grade massive production
• Help to the grid (Reactors dedicated to electrolysis which can
momentarily switch to electricity production in order to anwer the demand
peak ; short and medium term storage through reversible electrolysis)
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6. CONTEXT
NUCLEAR ENERGY
COMPETITIVENESS
THE PLACE OF THE NUCLEAR ENERGY IN
SCENARIOS ON THE HORIZON 2050
NUCLEAR ENERGY IN 2100
CONCLUSIONS

7. COMPETIVITY OF THE EXISTING NUCLEAR FLEET :
REPORT BY LA COUR DES COMPTES JANUARY 2012
€2010/MWh
Operating expenses
Cost connected to
the capital
Total
ARENH 2012
33
(25+5 maintenance
+ 3anticipation postFukushima
6 to 9
42
Accounting cost
29
4,4
33,4
Champsaur
Commission
27,1
6
33,1
Full Accounting cost
for production
23,4
16,4
39,8
LCOE (Variant
French National
Audit)
29,1
20,4
49,5
Main result from la Cour des Comptes (French National Audit) :
LCOE for nuclear is about 50€/MWh
 Historic nuclear power is economically «unbeatable »
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8. NUCLEAR POWER OF FUTURE: ORDER OF
MAGNITUDE FOR THE NEW REACTORS COSTS
• Costs are usully difficult to compare, as
many factors are playing a role :
– DesignS
– Specificities of countries (local costs,
constraints of sites, labor law, taxes …)
– Local share in the global costs
– Exchange rate parities
– Number of reactors on a site
– Etc…
• Order of magnitude for « overnight » costs :
– EPR (Flamanville) ~8,5 billion euros (FOAK in France)
– EPR (Chinese) ~4 billion euros
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9. THE DIRECTIONS TO LOWER THE COSTS
• Changes registered in the logic of the industrial projects on shortaverage term
• The experience feedback
• Serie effect (including supply chain, scale effect, ..)
• Duplications on the same site (ex: Taishan)
 Cost cutting and reduction of deadlines
• Changes connected to the economic situation with short-average term
• Lesser pressure on raw materials
• Less tension concerning numbers of high level skill engineers
• But interest rate must be watched
• In the long term: R&D, the factor of technical progress
• Many examples from the past : burn-up increase, waste volumes…
• Numerous tracks are under investigation: simulation, materials, fuel
cycle, …
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10. NUCLEAR COMPETITIVENESS : FORWARD LOOKING COSTS
CEA Estimates
and calculations
Construction Electricity
Costs (€/kWe) production
Costs (€/MWh)
Hypothesis
New nuclear
power : high
range
4000
(6,4 Md€)
75
25% gain compared
with FOAK
Flamanville
New nuclear
3000
power : low range (4,7 Md€)
60
45% gain compared
with FOAK
Flamanville
Source CEA I-tésé
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11. IN GENERAL, CONSTRUCTION COSTS HAVE NOT BEEN IN
LINE WITH INFLATION
INSEE Index of the construction costs
INSEE (National Institute for statistics and economic studies)
1995-2008:
+60 %
While at the same time, the reference index of the prices
increased by only 24 %
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12. IT’S PARTICULARLY TRUE FOR ELECTRICAL
INVESTMENTS
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13. COMPETITIVENESS OF VARIOUS KINDS OF PLANTS : THE FORWARDLOOKING COSTS IN FRANCE €/MWH GIVEN BY ANCRE TO DNTE
Energy
2020
2030
2050
Coal
70
109
260
Gas
90
101
168
Nuclear
42
46
60
Onshore Wind
70
65
60
Offshore Wind
140
120
110
Solar PV
150
100
70
Figures are still under
discussion
Data used in the
DIV scénario examinated in
the framework of the
National Debate on the
Energy Transition (DNTE)
Source ANCRE
By 2030 and beyond, the costs of the main means of Low
carbon Production can converge
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14. NECESSARY TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SYSTEM COSTS
OECD Study 2012 (US$/MWh)
 System and CO2 costs will be factors of the highest importance for the MIX
in the future
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15. CONTEXT
NUCLEAR ENERGY COMPETITIVENESS
THE PLACE OF THE NUCLEAR
ENERGY IN SCENARIOS ON THE
HORIZON 2050
NUCLEAR ENERGY IN 2100
CONCLUSIONS

16. FROM UNIT COSTS TO THE SCENARIOS GLOBAL COSTS OF
ELECTRICITY €/MWH IN 2030 (TAX EXCLUDED)
100,0
90,0
€2011/MWh
CO2
80,0
Wind
50 €/tCO2
70,0
Solar PV
60,0
Other
renewables
50,0
Classical
Thermal
40,0
New nuclear
30,0
Historic
nuclear
20,0
10,0
0,0
Extension of
EPR
historic nuclear accelerated
Partial exit
from nuclear
Exit from nuc. Exit from nuc.
RE strong
fossile strong
Source :
Energies 2050
French
Strategical
Analysis
Center (CAS)
(Costs for reducing the demand and for the grid are not included)
 A fast transition leads to important additional costs
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17. CO2 EMISSIONS IN 2030 FOR DIFFERENT SCENARIOS
CO2 Emissions for various options - Mt - 2030
90,0
Cogeneration
80,0
50 €/tCO2
70,0
60,0
Ways for the peak
demand (fuel)
50,0
40,0
30,0
CCG (Gas)
20,0
10,0
Coal
Exit from
nuclear fossile
strong
Exit from
nuclear RE
strong
Partial exit
from nuclear
EPR
accelerated
extension of
historic
nuclear
0,0
Source :
Energies 2050
French
Strategical
Analysis
Center (CAS)
One part of CO2 emissions comes from the back-up of the
renewable energies
An exit from nuclear will made very difficult the committment
« facteur 4 »
 A fast transition increase significantly CO2 emissions
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18. FRENCH NATIONAL DEBATE ON THE ENERGY
TRANSITION (DNTE)
The questions :
• What energy for the next 10, 20, 30 or
40 years ?
• What amount of investments is required
today?
• How to develop renewable energies ?
• How to optimise(reduce) the demand, and use the available
energy?
• What are the advantages and the inconveniences of the energy
transition from an économic point of view?
http://www.transition-energetique.gouv.fr/
 The synthesis of the debate was presented at the Environmental
conference held in Paris in september 2013
 A new program act in 2014
16 octobre 2013
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19. THE USE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY IS VERY CONTRASTED IN
THE DNTE SCENARIOS
Total consumption of electricity in France (TWh)
•
Horizon 2050 in France : Electric demand between -30% and +80%
according scenarios presented in the debate
 The trend is an increase of the electricity demand
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20. THE ELECTIC DEMAND REMAINS INCREASING
Augmentation relative par rapport à 2005 des productions d'énergie
primaire et d'électricité pour les scénarios Baseline et Blue
3,0
2,8
2,6
PE.baseline
PE.BLUE
2,4
2,2
2,0
Elec.baseline
Elec.BLUE
IEA 2008
1,8
1,6
1,4
1,2
1,0
2005
2030
2050
Even in the the Blue scenario from the International Energy Agency, which is a sober
scenario with a Primary Energy (PE) flat, the electricity demand is still growing.
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21. ANCRE Scenarios
• ANCRE is the National Alliance of Coordination of the Research
for the Energy
• ANCRE groups all the public institutions of education and
research for the domain and works in dialogue with the poles of
competitiveness
• It wished to take part in the debate on the energy transition and
suggested to the Minister in charge of Energy building energy
scenarios on the 2050 horizon. The Minister showed her deep
interest for this work of ANCRE.
• ANCRE has defined the 3 following scenarios :
• « Strenghtened Sobriety » (ou SOB)
• « Décarbonisation by the electricity » (ou ELE)
• « Diversified vectors » (ou DIV)
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22. The innovation, in the
heart of the successes
of tomorrow
Without large-scale technological progress, the achievement of the factor 4 on
GHG emission, is not realistic :
o
o
o
o
o
Innovate and Strengthen the effort of R&D in the field of the energy and better
coordinate it in the European plan,
Target medium to long-term "breakthrough technologies", without being limited by
those choices proposed in the scenarios,
 Employment in the long-term will depend on the innovations made in the
medium term.
Strengthen demonstration projects at the national and local level by interaction
with both industry and population,
Formalize a decision making in a step by step manner according results achieved
and the context.
 This is true for nuclear energy and ANCRE identified domains of key
technological progress for future: safety, duration of operation, nuclear
cogeneration, flexibility of reactors, massive production of hydrogen, development
of concepts of 4th generation in particular
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23. ANCRE SCENARIOS: MAIN RESULTS FOR 2025
• Independent of the scenarios, even with a high electricity
demand, changing to 50 % of nuclear energy generated in 2025
will lead to the closure of a significant number of reactors:
between 5 and 30 reactors will be closed.
• These closures come along with an important increase of the
renewable energies (of the order of 20 % of the park in energy).
• Such a dynamic raises 3 questions:
• How "to accommodate" so quickly a strong part of intermittent
renewable energies in the network (ANCRE answers it essentially by
"Game Changers“).
• How to finance these renewable energies, since the “income" of
historic nuclear power will have been greatly reduced ?
• How to finance the early final shut-down of reactors ? As order of
magnitude, to stop 20 reactors would cost from 20 to 60 billion €,
according to the estimations
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24. WHAT CRITERIA TO ESTIMATE CHOICES? (EX OF THE
CURRENT ACTION WITHIN ANCRE)
Criteria evaluation : 3*6 criteria
 Reference costs for the various plants and average cost for the fleet
Micro &
Macro
economics
Environment
Climate
Science
Technology
Prospective
 Employement (direct, indirect and inferred)
Trade balance (raw materials, equipment and services)
Consumer energy prices (Industry and Households)
Trajectory of investment and financing terms
Public debts taking into account fiscal receipts and financing
Local environment (Atmosphéric pollution, water, grounds)
 Industrial and accidental risks
 Global environment (CO2, CH4,…)
Influences on grounds and biodiversity
Raw and strategic materials
Vulnerability in the geopolitical crises
Maturity of the technologies (availability, cost, industrial capacities)
 Needs in R&D (Roadmaps, R&D programs to launch, financing)
 Experimental projects
Long-term instruments of incentive (rates of repurchase, calls for tender,)
Innovation diffusion strategy
Relationship between technological and industrial developments
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25. CONTEXT
NUCLEAR ENERGY COMPETITIVENESS
THE PLACE OF THE NUCLEAR ENERGY IN
SCENARIOS ON THE HORIZON 2050
NUCLEAR ENERGY IN 2100
CONCLUSIONS

26. THE VISION OF THE OPECST(PARLIAMENTARY OFFICE
OF THE SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL CHOICES)
Published report " The energy transition from the innovation and
decentralization points of view “
Released in september 2013
Main conclusions:
• Justification of a strong nuclear base in France
• Call to diversify the MIX of generated electricity
• Identification of the role of renewable, storage, Gen IV
• Importance of the R&D on the long-term horizon
• Recommendations for the transition (in particular with regard to
the dynamics)
• Suggestion for a long-term nuclear scenario: " logical trajectory "
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27. THE REASONS FOR CHOOSING FAST REACTORS
Make nuclear energy sustainable for several thousand years
Energy independance: depleted uranium stocks
Economic competitiveness

Natural uranium price evolution
Waste management


plutonium with bad isotopic composition from the burnt
MOX may be used.
Better capability than LWR to possibly transmute minor
actinides.
Industrial politics and leadership (State or maker level)
 Developping Sodium Fast Reactors will be
possible in France from 2040
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28. A MAIN DRIVER : THE DEMAND
Nuclear energy is both economically competitive and CO2 free
 Large increase of the nuclear fleet is expected in the world
Fukushima : a rather limited
impact on the horizon 2100
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29. SUSTAINABILITY : WORLD URANIUM RESOURCES (RED BOOK)
Conventional ressources (MtU)
Identified
Undiscovered
Reasonably
Assured
Resources (RAR)
Inferred
< 40 $/kg U
0.5
0.2
40-80 $/kg U
1.5
0.9
80-130 $/kg U
1.4
0.8
1.1
130-260 $/kg U
0.9
0.8
0.1
subtotal
4.4
2.7
2.8
Total
Prognosticated
Speculative
1.6
7.1 MtU
7.6
10.4 MtU
• Unconventionnal ressources :
– Mainly U associated to phosphates: 3,9 MtU (with only 10000 tU/year as a
phosphate by-product)
– Sea water… 4 000 MtU (> 1800 $/kgU ?)
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30. IS NUCLEAR SUSTAINABLE ? LWR ONLY
U Consumption versus resources
Consumption
Two scenarios
A3
C2
Hypotheses for U resources :
•6 Mt identified resources (2009)
•20 Mt identified + undiscovered + 4 Mt phos
•38 Mt identified + undiscovered + 22 Mt phos
•90 Mt very optimistic …
Demand
Production
6 Mt
Production
20 Mt
Production
38 Mt
Production
90 Mt
A3 Scenario
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C2 Scenario
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31. SFR ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS
LWR Production cost
LWR Fuel cycle
LWR Fuel cycle cost
reprocessing
16%
f abrication
11%
natural
uranium
40%
Natural U represents
today 7%
of a LWR kWh cost
enrichment
29%
conversion
3%
SFR Production cost
SFR Fuel cycle cost
LWR is the most
competitive nuclear reactor
today, but the increase of
Uranium cost will allow
SFR to become cheaper
Competitiveness depends also on the country : labor cost, recycling policy,
regulation, …
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32. SFR COMPETITIVENESS : THE FRENCH CASE
Two steps are necessary:
Study at a world level in order to determine the uranium price
evolution
Study at the France level to determine the fleet evolution
Simplifying hypothesis : competitiveness occurs at the same time
in all the countries
(even if some features may differ by a significant amount :
Labor cost,
Recycling policy
Regulation
…)
•
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33. WORLD DEMAND
IIASA Scénarios
A2
2010
A3
B
C2
2500 TWhe
2030
X 2.8
X 2.4
X 2.0
2050
X 1.9
X 4.7
X 4.7
X 3.0
2150
SFEN Atoms for the Future October 22nd, 2013 Paris, France
X 1.2
X 30
X 29
X 23
X 10
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34. WORLD DEMAND
Scénarios used
IIASA Scénarios
A2
2010
A3
B
C2
2500 TWhe
2030
X 2.8
X 2.4
X 2.0
2050
X 1.9
X 4.7
X 4.7
X 3.0
2150
SFEN Atoms for the Future October 22nd, 2013 Paris, France
X 1.2
X 30
X 29
X 23
X 10
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35. HYPOTHESES : SUPPLY CURVE AND WORLD DEMAND
3 Supply curves for uranium
2500
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXX
Uncertainties on Uranium extracted from sea water
XXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
2000
4 World demand
hypotheses
Cost €/kg U
1500
A hypothesis
B hypothesis
C hypothesis
1000
500
0
Mt U
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Uncertainties about resources (3 hypotheses = supply curves A, B, C)
Uncertainties about nuclear electricity demand (4 hypotheses = world demand)
 3*4 world scenarios to calculate
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36. WORLD SCENARIO : RESULTS
Uranium cost evolution
€/kg U
years
Uranium cost
evolution
Supply curve
Nuclear electricity demand scenario
a
b
g
d
A
B
B
C
A3
A3
C2
C2
As an example, the a uranium cost evolution (Alpha curve) is obtained through a world scenario having
as hypotheses the A supply curve and the A3 electricity demand
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37. SCENARIOS FOR FRANCE : RESULTS
Uranium cost
evolution
Supply curve
Nuclear electric
demand scenario
Competitiveness
Moment
a
b
g
d
A
B
B
C
A3
A3
C2
C2
≈2040
≈2080
≈2100
≈2140
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38. RNR MARKET : TWO SEPARATE PHASES
If reaching microeconomic competitiveness will mark a key stage in the
development of SFR, the incentive for the first purchasers will be political
considering other criteria :
Safety
Energy self-sufficiency of the country
Secure energy supply
Guarantees relative to the pressure on the natural uranium market
Positioning in the high-technology industry
Plutonium management
Waste management (MA transmutation)
Integration of non-proliferation issues
…
In the first phase, the incentives will be rather political than economical
and a small number of SFR will be built in India, Russia, China or
France… At the end of this phase a few standards will be ready for an
industrial development.
This industrial development will appear in a second phase when SFR will
be economically competitive in comparison with LWR. The number of
units built per year will increase significantly limited only by the Pu
availability.
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39. CONTEXT
NUCLEAR ENERGY COMPETITIVENESS
THE PLACE OF THE NUCLEAR ENERGY IN
SCENARIOS ON THE HORIZON 2050
NUCLEAR ENERGY IN 2100
CONCLUSIONS

40. WHAT TO CHOOSE?
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41. CONCLUSIONS
New paradigms:
• The globalization (know how, GHG, products…)
• The rise of the uncertainties and the crises
• Removal of the usual balance offer-demand
• Synergies nuclear/renewable energies
Report N°1: Historic nuclear power is by very far the cheapest
means of production  " Go out in a precipitated way " of nuclear
power would be very expensive and emitting of CO2
Report N°2: Nuclear power and renewable energies can develop in
harmony (it is even the easiest way). It is also necessary to lower
the costs of system for the renewable energies .
Report N°3: Renewable energies progress and an increasing price
of the CO2 is probably going to bring several electrical energy low
carbon in zones of comparable costs towards (or after) 2030.
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42. CONCLUSIONS
Report n°4: Nuclear power in the years 2030 to 2050 will
significantly have evolved: safety, use, cost (?), acceptability, in a
context where the consideration of the climate is inevitable, arrival
of the IVth generation …
Report n°5: The R&D on " low carbon " energies is essential to give
room to manoeuvre( open choices) to a very (too much ) restrained
energy system
A very open future for long-term nuclear power in
France ( announced relative decrease) and in Europe
(eventually opportunities for a redeployment for the
moment on hold)
These technologies have undeniable assets but have
to evolve to continue to show their ability
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43. CONCLUSIONS
Report n°6: Nuclear on the horizon 2100
SFR will be present and very likely economically
competitive
 The competitiveness moment is difficult to predict due to
uncertainties on natural uranium resources and LWR
development in the world.
 The most likely hypothesis is the second half of the century.
 The SFR investment overcost is less sensitive.
However, a smaller market will start before the
economic competitiveness for political and
strategical considerations
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44. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
CEA | 10 AVRIL 2012
| PAGE 44
October 22nd, 2013