Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then

Welcome
Defining Rural Saskatchewan:
Demographic Trends Now and Then

Agenda
Dashboard
Speakers
Q&A
Follow‐Up

Ray Bollman, PhD
• Previous Chief of the Rural Research Group
in Statistics Canada
• Rural and Small Town Canada Analysis Bulletin

Saskatchewan
rural demographic update
to 2011
Webinar presented to the
Saskatchewan Economic Development Association
Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Ray D. Bollman
Research Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University
Adjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan
RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net
613-297-5826
1

Saskatchewan rural demographic
update to 2011

An update of:

Bollman, Ray D. and Heather A. Clemenson. (2008) “Structure and Change in Canada’s Rural Demography: An
Update to 2006.” Rural and Small Town Canada Analysis Bulletin Vol. 7, No. 7 (Ottawa: Statistics Canada,
Catalogue no. 21-006-XIE). (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/olc-cel/olc-cel?catno=21-006-X&CHROPG=1&lang=eng)

Bollman, Ray D et Heather A. Clemenson. (2008) « Structure et évolution de la démographie rurale du Canada
: Mise à jour jusqu'en 2006 » Bulletin d’analyse: Régions rurales et petites villes du Canada vol. 7, no
7(Ottawa: Statistique Canada, No 21-006-XIF au catalogue) (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/olc-cel/olc-cel?catno=21-006-X&CHROPG=1&lang=fra)

Bollman, Ray D. and Heather A. Clemenson (2008) Structure and Change in Canada’s Rural Demography:
An Update to 2006 with Provincial Detail (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Agriculture and Rural Working Paper
No. 90, Catalogue no. 21-601-MIE) (www.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-bin/downpub/listpub.cgi?catno=21-601-MIE).

Bollman, Ray D. Heather A. Clemenson. (2008) Structure et évolution de la démographie rurale du Canada
: Mise à jour jusqu’en 2006 incluant les données détaillées par province (Ottawa: Statistique Canada,
Documents de travail sur l’agriculture et le milieu rural No 90, No 21-601-MIF au catalogue). (www.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-
bin/downpub/listpub_f.cgi?catno=21-601-MIF)

2

Saskatchewan rural demographic update

Outline
1. Three ways of following rural demography
a. Nature of community / neighbourhood (census rural areas)
b. Type of labour market (rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas)
c. Type of region (predominantly rural regions, OECD regional typology)
2. What has the annual data been telling us?
3. Structure and trends: update with the 2011 Census of
Population
4. Summary
3

Take home messages:
1. Rural Canada is growing
 not everywhere
 e.g. rural Saskatchewan declined in every inter-censal
period from 1951 to 2006 but grew from 2006 to 2011
 For Canada as a whole, the rural population is growing
 The rural share of total population is declining because
 Urban is growing faster;
and due to
 Successful rural development
• At each census, some rural areas have grown and are re-
classified as urban.
• Sometimes the re-classification is greater than the growth and
thus we sometimes see fewer rural people at the end of the
period, compared to the number at the beginning of the period.

2. Rural Canada is:
• growing near cities
• growing less or declining away from cities
• some remote areas are growing due to higher Aboriginal birth rates
4and / or resource development.

Take home messages:
Rural Canada is growing
Recall the first ``Rural and Small Town Canada Analysis Bulletin``:
Mendelson, Robert and Ray D. Bollman. (1998) “Rural and Small Town Population is Growing in the 1990s.”
Rural and Small Town Canada Analysis Bulletin Vol. 1, No. 1 (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 21-
006-XIE) .(www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/english/bsolc?catno=21-006-X&CHROPG=1).

Mendelson, Robert and Ray D. Bollman. (1998) “Croissance démographique observée dans les régions rurales et
les petites villes dans les années 90.” Bulletin d’analyse: Régions rurales et petites villes du Canada vol. 1, no
4 (Ottawa: Statistique Canada, No 21-006-XIF au catalogue) (www.statcan.gc.ca/francais/freepub/21-006-
XIF/free_f.htm).

Also see:
Beshiri, Roland and Ray D. Bollman. (2001) “Population Structure and Change in Predominantly Rural Regions.” Rural and Small Town Canada
Analysis Bulletin Vol. 2, No. 2 (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 21-006-XIE). (www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/english/bsolc?catno=21-006-
X&CHROPG=1).
Beshiri, Roland and Ray D. Bollman. (2001) “Structure démographique et variation de la population dans les régions essentiellement rurales.” Bulletin
d’analyse: Régions rurales et petites villes du Canada vol. 2, no 2 (Ottawa: Statistique Canada, No 21-006-XIF au catalogue)
(www.statcan.gc.ca/francais/freepub/21-006-XIF/free_f.htm).

Mwansa, Pius and Ray D. Bollman. (2005) “Community demographic trends within their regional context.” Rural and Small Town Canada Analysis
Bulletin Vol. 6, No. 3 (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 21-006-XIE) (www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/english/bsolc?catno=21-006-X&CHROPG=1).

Mwansa, Pius and Ray D. Bollman. (2005) “Les tendances démographiques des communautés dans leur contexte régional.” Bulletin d’analyse:
Régions rurales et petites villes du Canada vol. 1, no 5 (Ottawa: Statistique Canada, No 21-006-XIF au catalogue)
(www.statcan.gc.ca/francais/freepub/21-006-XIF/free_f.htm).

5


Outline
Population
4. Summary
6


Census rural areas and population centres
Census rural areas have with fewer than 1,000 inhabitants and a population density below 400 people per
square kilometre. The terminology for all other areas has changed starting with the 2011 census.

Statistics Canada has defined census urban areas using the same methodology based on population size
and density since the 1971 Census. An census urban area was defined as having a population of at least
1,000 and a density of 400 or more people per square kilometre.

Starting with the 2011 Census, the term 'population centre' replaces the term ‘census urban area.'
Population centres are classified into one of three population size groups:
• small population centres, with a population of between 1,000 and 29,999
• medium population centres, with a population of between 30,000 and 99,999
• large urban population centres, consisting of a population of 100,000 and over.

A population centre is defined as an area with a population of at least 1,000 and a density of 400 or more
people per square kilometre. All areas outside population centres continue to be defined as census rural
areas. Taken together, population centres and census rural areas cover all of Canada.

Users of the former census urban area concept will be able to continue with their longitudinal analysis using
population centres.

For more information, please see the note titled From urban areas to population centres, available on the
Statistics Canada website, which explains the new terminology and classification of population centres.

7


Within census rural areas, population densities and living conditions can vary greatly. Included in
census rural areas are:
. . . small towns, villages and other populated places with less than 1,000 population according to the
current census;
. . . rural fringes of census metropolitan areas and census agglomerations that may contain estate
lots, as well as agricultural, undeveloped and non-developable lands ;
. . . agricultural lands;
. . . remote and wilderness areas.

Note that both population centres and census rural areas may exist within each of the “higher”
geographical groups. Thus, population centres and census rural areas may be used as variables to
cross-classify census data within any standard geographic areas such as census subdivisions, census
divisions, census metropolitan areas, census agglomerations or census Metropolitan area and census
agglomeration Influenced Zones (MIZ).

8


Outline
Population
4. Summary
9

Larger urban centres (LUCs) are Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and Census
Agglomerations (CAs):
Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have a built-up core population of 50,000 or more with a total
population of 100,000 or more (prior to 2006, the built-up core threshold was 100,000).
Census Agglomerations (CAs) have a built-up core population of 10,000 or more with a total population of
less than 100,000 (prior to 2006, a few CAs had a total population over 100,000 if they had less than 100,000
in the built-up core – due to the different definition of a CMA prior to 2006).
Both CMAs and CAs include the total population of neighbouring census subdivisions (CSDs) (i.e., incorporated towns and
municipalities) where more than 50% of the employed residents commute (i.e. a measure of social-economic integration) to the built-up
core of a specific CMA or CA. More details of the delineation are available from Statistics Canada (2007). {Statistics Canada. (2007)
2006 Census Dictionary (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 92-566)}
(http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/english/census06/reference/dictionary/index.cfm)}
Rural and small town (RST) areas refer to non-CMA/CA areas. RST areas are divided
into five types of zones based on the degree of influence (i.e., commuting) to any LUC.
These zones are Census Metropolitan and Census Agglomerated Influenced Zones (MIZs) (Statistics Canada,
2007). They are defined as follows:
… Strong MIZ includes CSDs where at least 30% of the employed residents commute to any CMA or CA;
... Moderate MIZ includes CSDs where 5% to less than 30% of the employed residents commute to any CMA or
CA;
… Weak MIZ includes CSDs where more than zero but less than 5% of the employed residents commute to any
CMA or CA;
… No MIZ includes CSDs where none of the employed residents commute to any CMA or CA (or the number of
employed residents is less than 40); and
… RST Territories refers to the non-CMA/CA parts of the Yukon, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut (i.e. the
areas outside the CAs of Whitehorse and Yellowknife).
{See du Plessis, Valerie, Roland Beshiri, Ray D. Bollman and Heather Clemenson. (2001) “Definitions of Rural.” Rural and Small Town Canada Analysis
Bulletin Vol. 3, No. 3 (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Catalogue. no. 21-006-XIE). (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/olc-cel/olc-cel?catno=21-006-
X&CHROPG=1&lang=eng)}
10


Outline
Population
4. Summary
11

OECD Regional Typology is designed to classify Territorial Level 3 (TL3) geographic units
according their degree of rurality. In each country, TL1 refers to the national level, TL2 refers to the province
level (in Canada or, for example, the state level in Australia or the United States) and TL3 refers to a subprovincial
geographic grid. In Canada, TL3 units are census divisions.

Predominantly urban regions are census divisions where less than 15% of the population lives
in an OECD rural community.
Intermediate regions are census divisions where between 15% and 50% of the population lives
in an OECD rural community.
Predominantly rural regions are census divisions where more than 50% of the population lives
in an OECD rural community. Predominantly rural regions are further classified to recognize diversity
among the rural regions.
Rural metro-adjacent regions: predominantly rural census divisions which are adjacent to metropolitan
centres.
Rural non-metro-adjacent regions: predominantly rural census divisions which are not adjacent to
metropolitan centres.
Rural northern regions: predominantly rural census divisions which are classified as “northern” when Beale
Codes were assigned to Canadian census divisions. For details, see du Plessis et al. (2001). The 10 Beale Codes
were designed for use in the USA. However, they did not include anything like Canada’s north so an eleventh code was added.
This extra code includes census divisions that are found entirely, or a majority, above the following lines of parallel in each
province: Newfoundland, 50th; Quebec and Ontario, 49th; Manitoba, 53rd; and Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia,
54th. As well, rural northern regions include all of the Yukon, Nunavut and Northwest Territories. A map is available as Map B3 in
Appendix B of the working paper by du Plessis et al. (2001). http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/21-601-m/21-601-m2002061-
eng.htm
OECD rural communities: are census consolidated subdivisions (CCSs) with a population density less than 150
persons per km2.
{See du Plessis, Valerie, Roland Beshiri, Ray D. Bollman and Heather Clemenson. (2001) “Definitions of Rural.” Rural and Small Town Canada Analysis Bulletin Vol. 3, No. 3
(Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Catalogue. no. 21-006-XIE). (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/olc-cel/olc-cel?catno=21-006-X&CHROPG=1&lang=eng)}

12


Outline
Population
4. Summary
13


The population, 15 years of age and over, residing in
census rural areas increased 4.2% from
4.7 million in May, 2006 to 4.9 million in May, 2011,
Canada
5.1 Population 15 years of age and over
residing in census rural areas
(million) (plotted as a 3-month moving average)

5.0

4.9

4.8

4.7

4.6

Jun2011

Oct2011
Feb2010

Jun2010

Oct2010

Feb2011
Feb2009

Jun2009

Oct2009
Feb2008

Jun2008

Oct2008
Feb2007

Jun2007

Oct2007
Feb2006

Jun2006

Oct2006

Dec2011
Dec2010
Dec2009

Apr2011

Aug2011
Dec2008

Apr2010

Aug2010
Dec2007

Apr2009

Aug2009
Dec2006

Apr2008

Aug2008
Apr2007

Aug2007
Apr2006

Aug2006

Source: Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey. CANSIM Table 282-0118.

14


Outline
Population
4. Summary
15

The population, 15 years of age and over, residing in
rural and small town areas increased 4.4% from
4.63 million in May, 2006 to 4.84 million in May, 2011,
Canada
4.9 Population 15 years of age and over
residing in rural and small town areas
(million) (plotted as a 3-month moving average)

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.5
Feb2006

Jun2006

Oct2006

Feb2007

Jun2007

Oct2007

Feb2008

Jun2008

Oct2008

Feb2009

Jun2009

Oct2009

Feb2010

Jun2010

Oct2010

Feb2011

Jun2011

Oct2011
Apr2006

Apr2007

Apr2008

Apr2009

Apr2010

Apr2011
Aug2006

Aug2007

Aug2008

Aug2009

Aug2010

Aug2011
Dec2006

Dec2007

Dec2008

Dec2009

Dec2010

Dec2011
Source: Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey. CANSIM Table 282-0118.

16


Outline
Population
4. Summary
17


In 2011, the total population in
predominantly rural regions was 9.6 million

20,000,000 Total population
Predominantly
18,000,000 urban regions

16,000,000 Intermediate
regions
14,000,000
Predominantly
12,000,000 Up 2.1% from 2006 rural regions
(subtotal)
10,000,000
Rural metro-
8,000,000 adjacent
regions
6,000,000 Rural non-
metro-adjacent
4,000,000 regions

Rural northern
2,000,000 regions

0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.

18


Canada's predominantly rural population grew
in each year from 1996 to 2011
Percent change in
2.0
total population
1.8
Predominantly
1.6 urban regions

1.4

1.2

Intermediate
1.0
regions
0.8

0.6

0.4 Predominantly
rural regions
0.2

0.0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


19


In 2011, 28% of Canada's population was residing
in predominantly rural regions
Percent distribution of total population
100%

90%
Predominantly
80% urban regions

70%

60%

50%
Intermediate
regions
40%

30%

20% Predominantly
rural regions
10%

0%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

21


In predominantly rural regions,
the number of immigrant arrivals per 100 inhabitants
has constantly increased from 2002-03 to 2010-11
1.6 Immigrant arrivals
per 100 inhabitants
1.4
Predominantly
urban regions
1.2

1.0

0.8
Intermediate
regions

0.6

0.4
Predominantly
0.2 rural regions

0.0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

22


Outline
Population
4. Summary
24


Rural minority in Canada after 1921
30 Population (millions)

Population centres (1,000 or more inhabitants)
25
Census rural areas (outside population centres)

20

15

10

5

0
1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Note: Census rural areas have fewer than 1,000 inhabitants and a population density below 400 people per square kilometre.
Population centres have a population of 1,000 or more and a population density of 400 or more inhabitants per square kilomeetre.
Data are tabulated in the boundaries applicable at the time of the given census.
Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1851 to 2011.

25


Population trends: Rural minority in
Saskatchewan in 1971
800,000
Population

700,000

600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000 Census rural (outside population centres of
1,000 or more inhabitants)
100,000 Population centres (1,000 or more inhabitants)

0
1901 1911 1921 1931
Source: Statiatics Canada. Census of Population, 1901 - 2011.
1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

26

The census rural population has grown in all
but two decades since 1851, Canada
Census rural areas Population centres (1,000+ residents)
40 10-year percent change in total population

30

20

10

0

-10

-20
1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001
to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to
1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1951 - 2011.

27


The census rural population grew in the
1950s, 1970s, 1980s and 2001 to 2011
40 Five-year percent change in total population

30 Census rural (outside population centres of 1,000 or
more inhabitants)
20

10

0

-10

-20
1951 to 1956 to 1961 to 1966 to 1971 to 1976 to 1981 to 1986 to 1991 to 1996 to 2001 to 2006 to
1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Note: Data are tabulated in the boundaries applicable at the time of the given census. Thus, the reported change is due to population growth or decline plus the net impact of the re-
classification of population between population centres and census rural aeras.

28


First growth in census rural population
since 1951: Saskatchewan
40 Five-year percent change in total population

Census rural (outside population centres of 1,000
or more inhabitants)
30

20

10

0

-10

-20
1951 to 1956 to 1961 to 1966 to 1971 to 1976 to 1981 to 1986 to 1991 to 1996 to 2001 to 2006 to
1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

29


1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
to to to to to to to to to to to to
1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
5-year percent change in population in census rural areas
Newfoundland and Labrador 11 -2 0 -2 3 2 -0 13 -10 -9 -2 -2
Prince Edward Island -7 3 -3 0 8 5 0 -1 -4 -1 0 -0
Nova Scotia -1 14 -6 8 7 4 6 4 -2 -3 1 -2
New Brunswick -0 7 -5 -10 18 6 5 5 -0 -4 -1 -0
Quebec 2 -3 -7 -7 12 11 -0 7 -0 -8 5 3
Ontario -3 8 -3 -1 14 1 3 12 -2 -3 4 -0
Manitoba 1 -2 -5 -5 2 -4 0 3 3 0 4 2
Saskatchewan -4 -6 -8 -11 -6 -1 -4 -6 -1 -4 -3 1
Alberta -1 0 -7 -5 6 11 -4 5 8 3 4 4
British Columbia 0 20 4 14 7 6 -1 7 4 -10 1 1
Yukon 48 -0 -21 -5 19 -2 -0 38 7 -4 4 9
Northwest Territories & Nunavut 11 -5 22 5 19 11 18 30 1 -9 1 -1
Canada -0 3 -5 -2 9 5 1 7 -0 -4 3 1
30

Nunavut and Prince Edward Island have more than 50%
of their population living in census rural areas
Prince Edward Island
Nunavut
New Brunswick
Nova Scotia
Northwest Territories
Newfoundland and Labrador
Yukon
Saskatchewan
Manitoba
CANADA
Quebec
Alberta
Ontario
British Columbia

0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Percent of total population living in census rural areas, 2011
Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 2011. (outside population centres of 1,000 or more inhabitants)

31


Distribution of census rural population by province, 2006

Percent of Provincial census
Population in population rural population
Year when census Total
census rural residing in as a percent of
rural population population
areas in census Canada's census
became a minority in 2011
2011 rural areas rural population in
in 2011 2011

Newfoundland and Labrador 1961 514,536 208,970 41 3.3
Prince Edward Island still a majority 140,204 74,661 53 1.2
Nova Scotia 1951 921,727 400,389 43 6.3
New Brunswick 1966 to 1981 & 2006 751,171 356,692 47 5.6
Quebec 1911 7,903,001 1,534,731 19 24.2
Ontario 1911 12,851,821 1,806,036 14 28.5
Manitoba 1951 1,208,268 333,554 28 5.3
Saskatchewan 1971 1,033,381 343,398 33 5.4
Alberta 1956 3,645,257 614,855 17 9.7
British Columbia 1931 4,400,057 609,363 14 9.6
Yukon 1971 33,897 13,335 39 0.2
Northwest Territories 2006 41,462 16,901 41 0.3
Nunavut still a majority 31,906 16,529 52 0.3
Canada 1931 33,476,688 6,329,414 19 100.0

32


Outline
Population
4. Summary
33


In 2011, Canada's rural and small town population was 6 million
population (millions)
30

25 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

20

15

10

5

0
All LUCs CMAs CAs All RST areas Strong MIZ Moderate MIZ Weak MIZ No MIZ RST
Territories

Larger urban centres (LUCs) Rural and small town (RST) areas
Note: Data are tabulated within boundaries applicable at the time of the given census.
In 2006 and 2011. Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have a population of 100,000 or more (with 50,000 or more in the built-up core) and includes all neighbouring towns and
municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Census Agglomerations (CAs) have 10,000 or more in the built-up core and includes all neighbouring
towns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Metropolitan Influenced Zones (MIZ) are assigned on the basis of the share of the workforce that
commutes to any CMA or CA (Strong metropolitan influenced zone: 30% or more; Moderate metropolitan influenced zone: 5 to 29%; Weak metropolitan influenced zone: 1 to 5%; No
metropolitan influenced zone: no commuters).
Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 1991 to 2011.

34

In 2011, 6 million individuals were living
in rural and small town areas
26 Population (millions)
24
22
20
Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs)

18
16
14
12
10
8 Rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas
6
4
2
Census Agglomerations (CAs)
0
1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Note: In 2006 and 2011, Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have 50,000 or more inhabitants in the built- core with a total population of 100,000 or more and Census Agglomerations (CAs)
have 10,000 or more in the built-up core. Both CMAs and CAs include surrounding towns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to thebuilt-up core. Rural and
small town (RST) refers to the population outside Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and outside Census Agglomerations (CAs). The two data points for each year show the adjusted
population count (due to reclassification) in order to make comparisons over time within constant boundaries.

35


Rural and Small Town Population,
Canada, 1966 to 2011
Population (millions)
8.0

At each census, some rural areas have grown and then
are re-classified as urban.
7.5
Thus, the starting point for the RST population for each
inter-censal period is lower than the end point for the
7.0 previous inter-censal period.

6.5

6.0

5.5

5.0
1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Rural and small town refers to the population outside Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and outside Census Agglomerations (CAs).

36

Metropolitan Influenced Zones (MIZ) in Rural and Small Town Saskatchewan, 2006
using the Statistical Area Classification

Rural and Small Town areas
(showing Metropolitan Influenced Zones (MIZ))

Strong MIZ
Moderate MIZ
Weak MIZ
No MIZ
Territories

Larger Urban Centres
Census Metropolitan Areas (urban core of 50,000
or more with a total population of 100,000 or more)
Census Agglomerations
(urban core of 10,000 to 49,999)

Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 2006. Map produced by the Remote Sensing and Geomatics Applications section (RSGA), Agriculture Division, Statistics Canada, 2008


In 2011, Saskatchewan's rural and small town population
was 404 thousand
population
700

600
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

500

400

300

200

100

0
All LUCs CMAs CAs All RST areas Strong MIZ Moderate MIZ Weak MIZ No MIZ RST
Territories

towns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Metropolitan Influenced Zones (MIZ) are assigned on the basis of the share of the workforce that
commutes to any CMA or CA (Strong metropolitan influenced zone: 30% or more; Moderate metropolitan influenced zone: 5 to 29%; Weak metropolitan influenced zone: 1 to 5%; No

38

CMAs grew more than CAs --
rural areas with stronger metropolitan influence grew more
(except for the influence of Aboriginal population growth in the RST territories)

Percent change in total
10 population, 2006 to 2011
9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0
All LUCs CMAs CAs All RST Strong MIZ Moderate Weak MIZ No MIZ RST
areas MIZ Territories

Larger urban centres Rural and small town (RST) areas
In 2006 and 2011. Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have a population of 100,000 or more (with 50,000 or more in the built-up core) and includes all
neighbouring towns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Census Agglomerations (CAs) have 10,000 or more in the
built-up core and includes all neighbouring towns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Metropolitan Influenced Zones
(MIZ) are assigned on the basis of the share of the workforce that commutes to any CMA or CA (Strong metropolitan influenced zone: 30% or more; Moderate
metropolitan influenced zone: 5 to 29%; Weak metropolitan influenced zone: 1 to 5%; No metropolitan influenced zone: no commuters).

39

The CMAs (Saskatoon and Regina) grew and
all other types of areas declined
Saskatchewan, 1986 to 1991

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10

LargerLarger urban centres
urban centres (LUCs) Rural and small town (RST) areas
Rural and small town (RST) areas

In 2006 and 2011, Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) have a population of 100,000 or more (with 50,000 or more in the built-up core) and includes all neighbouring towns and
towns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. Metropolitan Influenced Zones (MIZ) are assigned on the basis of the share of the workforce
that commutes to any CMA or CA (Strong metropolitan influenced zone: 30% or more; Moderate metropolitan influenced zone: 5 to 29%; Weak metropolitan influenced zone: 1 to 5%; No
40

all other types of areas declined

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10


41

rural areas with Strong MIZ grew a bit


8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10


42

rural areas with Strong MIZ grew a bit

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10


43

The CMAs (Saskatoon and Regina) grew more than the CAs,
which grew more than the RST areas
population, 2006 to 2011 Saskatchewan, 2006 to 2011
10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

-10


44

Growth in RST & CA population for the first time since 1986,
Saskatchewan

Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) Census Agglomerations (CAs) Rural and Small Town (RST) areas

26 Percent change in population within constant boundaries1
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
1966 to 1971 1971 to 1976 1976 to 1981 1981 to 1986 1986 to 1991 1991 to 1996 1996 to 2001 2001 to 2006 2006 to 2011

1 Each 5-year change is tabulated within the boundaries applicable to the census at the end of the 5-year period.
Note: In 2006 and 2011, CMAs have a total population of 100,000 or more (with a built-up core of 50,000 or more) and they include neighbouring towns and municipalities where 50% or
more of the workforce commutes to the built-up core. CAs have an urban core of 10,000 or more persons plus neighbouring towns and municipalities where 50% or more of the workforce
commutes to the built-up core. RST areas are outside the commuting zones of CMAs and CAs.

45

In 2011, 18 percent of Canada's population
lived in rural and small town areas
100 Percent of total population

90
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

46

Share of population in rural and small town
areas declined to 18% in 2011
40 Percent of Canada's population living in rural and small town areas

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Note: Rural and small town refers to the population outside Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and Census Agglomerations (CAs).
Data are tabulated within the boundaries applicable at the time of the given census.

47

In 2011, 39 percent of Saskatchewan's population
lived in rural and small town areas
100 Percent of total population

90
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

48

The share of Canada's population residing in RST areas
declined from 36% in 1971 to 19% in 2011
Nunavut

Northwest Territories

Newfoundland

Prince Edward Island
1971
Saskatchewan 1976
New Brunswick 1981
Nova Scotia
1986
Manitoba

Yukon
1991
Quebec 1996
Alberta 2001
CANADA
2006
British Columbia
2011
Ontario

0 20 40 60 80 100
Percent of total population residing in rural and small town (non-CMA/CA) areas

49


Outline
Population
4. Summary
50

Growing population in predominantly rural regions,
Canada
18 Total population (millions)
Non-institutional population

16
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
14 Total (institutional plus non-institutional) population

12 1996 2001 2006 2011

10

8

6

4

2

0
Predominantly Intermediate All predominantly Rural metro- Rural non-metro- Rural northern
urban regions regions rural regions adjacent regions adjacent regions regions

Note: Data are tabulated within constant 1996 boundaries.
Source: Statistics Canada. Census of Population, 1981 to 2011. Predominantly rural regions
51

Predominantly rural population remains in the majority,
900,000 Total population
800,000 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
700,000 Total (institutional plus non-institutional) population
1996 2001 2006 2011
600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0

52

In 2011, the share of population in
predominantly rural regions was 29%, Canada
100 Percent distribution of total population
90

80 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

70 Total (institutional plus non-institutional) population

1996 2001 2006 2011
60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Note: Data are tabulated within constant 1996 boundaries.
57

Declining share of total population in predominantly
rural regions, Saskatchewan, 1981 to 2011
100 Percent distribution of total population
90

80 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
Total (institutional plus non-institutional) population
70
1996 2001 2006 2011
60

50

40

30

20

10

0

58

Percent of population residing in
predominantly rural regions
1996 2001 2006 2011
Newfoundland and Labrador 54 53 51 49
Prince Edward Island 100 100 100 100
Nova Scotia 62 60 59 58
New Brunswick 78 78 77 77
Quebec 24 24 23 23
Ontario 20 19 19 18
Manitoba 44 44 45 45
Saskatchewan 54 53 52 51
Alberta 34 33 32 31
British Columbia 42 41 40 39
Yukon 100 100 100 100
Northwest Territories 100 100 100 100
Nunavut 100 100 100 100
CANADA 31 30 30 29
Source: Statistic Canada. Census of Population. 1996 to 2011.
59


The next set of charts show the annual data for
each census division in Saskatchewan.

The list of census divisions, on the right-hand
side, is ranked by the population size of the
census division in 2011.

60

Div. 11 (incl.
In 2011, Census Division No. 11 (includes Saskatoon) Saskatoon)
Div. 6 (incl. Regina)
reached 282,000 residents
300,000 Div. 15 (incl. Prince
Total population Albert & Humboldt)
Div. 7 (incl. Moose
Jaw)
Div.17 (incl. Lloyd. &
250,000 Meadow Lake)
Div. 16 (incl. North
Battleford)
Div. 18 (Northern
200,000 Saskatchewan)
Div. 14 (incl. Melfort &
Nipawin)
Div. 9 (incl. Yorkton)

150,000 Div. 1 (incl. Estevan)

Div. 5 (incl. Melville)

Div. 8 (incl. Swift
100,000 Current)
Div. 12 (incl. Rosetown,
Biggar, Battleford)
Div. 13 (incl.
Kindersley)
50,000 Div. 2 (incl. Weyburn)

Div. 10 (incl. Wadena &
Wynyard)
0 Div. 3 (incl. Assiniboia)
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Div. 4 (incl. Maple
Creek)

61

Div. 11 (incl.
In 2011, Census Division No. 11 (includes Saskatoon) Saskatoon)
Div. 6 (incl. Regina)
reached 282,000 residents
55,000 Div. 15 (incl. Prince
Total population Albert & Humboldt)
Div. 7 (incl. Moose
50,000 Jaw)
Div.17 (incl. Lloyd. &
Meadow Lake)
45,000 Div. 16 (incl. North
Battleford)
Div. 18 (Northern
40,000 Saskatchewan)
Div. 14 (incl. Melfort &
Nipawin)
Div. 9 (incl. Yorkton)
35,000
Div. 1 (incl. Estevan)
30,000 Div. 5 (incl. Melville)

Div. 8 (incl. Swift
25,000 Current)
Div. 12 (incl. Rosetown,
Biggar, Battleford)
20,000 Div. 13 (incl.
Kindersley)
Div. 2 (incl. Weyburn)
15,000
Div. 10 (incl. Wadena &
Wynyard)
10,000 Div. 3 (incl. Assiniboia)
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Div. 4 (incl. Maple
Creek)

62

Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then

Defining Rural Saskatchewan: Demographic Trends Now & Then

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