Global meat perspectives 2011 to 2020: challenges and opportunities

1. “Global meat
production
towards 2020”
Luciano Roppa
D.V.M.
ROPPA Consulting,
January 2012
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2. Global meat production towards 2020
Objectives of this presentation:
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3. Our World towards 2020 … FACTS
Population growth: 6,9 to 7,6 billion
+ 700 million people
88 % will happen in Asia and Africa
Urbanization growth: 3,3 to 4,3 billion
+ 1 billion people
Mostly in Asia and Africa
Purchasing power growth: 7,350 to 9,280 USD
40 % of the world’s population lives in countries
with economies that are growing at 8 % annually.
China and India middle class will grow from actual 400 million
to more than 1 billion by 2020
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4. IMPACT … meat consumption increase
Meat consumption will increase near 4 times more
in Developing countries than in Developed countries ...
Meat consumption (poultry, beef and pork), 2010 to 2020 (million MT)
2010 2020 Quantity, Current Kg/
million T person
World 269,08 322,75 53,67 40,9
DEVELOPED 108,18 119,77 11,59 80,0
DEVELOPING 160,90 202,98 42,08 32,0
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
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5. IMPACT … meat consumption increase
Meat consumption growth of 54 Mt is projected by 2020
… predominantly in Asia
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
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6. IMPACT … Grain demand increase
The demand for Cereals is expected to grow 16%
Million MT 2010 2020 Growth, %
COARSE GRAINS 1.114,3 1.320,7 18,5
WHEAT 653,2 745,9 14,2
OILSEEDS 433,7 507,2 16,9
RICE 465,9 528,1 13,3
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
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7. Our World towards 2020 … FACTS
Water: World’s water needs will grow by 15 % over the next 10 years …
Water scarcity is a global phenomenon, but will affect more Asia and Africa.
Arable Land: Land available for agriculture is declining
From 0,50 Ha of arable land per person in 1950 to 0,25 Ha in 2010.
Sources of growth in crop production to meet Global food needs by 2050
Yields Crop Area
intensity expansion
World 77 % 14 % 9%
Source: OCDE – FAO, 2010
Energy: World primary energy will grow by 20% over the next 10 years
Developing economies drive Energy consumption growth (30% higher than today)
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8. IMPACT … Land grabbing
“Made in China” x “Made for China”
Without land and water in their own country,
Governments will produce abroad …
Governments purchasing land abroad
31.0 (in ‘000 km2, 2006-2009)
7.3 6.9 5.1 3.5
China UAE South Korea Saudi Arabia Lybia
Source: FAO, World Agriculture: towards 2015/2030,
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9. IMPACT … Biofuels production growth
By 2020:
- 12% of the global production of Coarse Grains will be used to produce Ethanol
- 16% of the global production of Vegetable Oils will be used to produce Biodiesel
Biofuels production growth, 2010 to 2020
2010 2020 Growth, %
Ethanol, 99,4 154,9 55,8
million liters
Biodiesel, 19,8 41,9 111,6
million liters
Source: L. Roppa, 2011 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
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10. IMPACT … Food Price volatility
When a significant amount of the crops goes to produce Biofuels,
feed costs are likely to remain high and volatile
Commodity Food Price Index, Monthly Price evolution, 2001 to 2011
December 2001 to December 2011: 109,4 %
Description: Commodity Food Price Index, 2005 = 100, includes Cereal, Vegetable Oils, Meat, Seafood, Sugar, Bananas, and Oranges Price Indices
Source: www.indexmundi.com
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11. Our World towards 2020 … FACTS
Meat production requirements are increasing,
driven by consumer sensitivity and regulations.
Food safety
Health & Wellness
Animal welfare
Environment
Sustainability
Traceability
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12. FACT … Environment & Climate changes
Poultry meat has the least impact on the environment per kg of meat produced
Source: IMPRO, 2008 - Elaboration: Luciano Roppa 2009
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13. Impact: Better efficiency = lower Emission
Source: Flachowsky & Hachenberg, 2009
 Younger age at slaughter (Feedlots, Genetic, Additives …)
 Improve Pasture (Carbon Sequestration)
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14. IMPACT … future meat consumption
Meat consumption by Species, 2010 to 2020
2010, 2020, Kg/person/
year
%
Kg/person/year
PORK 15,5 16,6 7,1
POULTRY 14,2 16,0 12,6
BEEF 9,4 9,6 2,1
SHEEP 1,8 2,0 11,1
TOTAL 40,9 44,2 8,1
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
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15. FACT … Economic crisis
Real GDP growth, in per cent
2010 2011 2012 2013
United States 3.0 1.7 2.0 2.5
Euro area 1.8 1.6 0.2 1.4
Japan 4.1 -0.3 2.0 1.6
Total OECD 3.1 1.9 1.6 2.3
Brazil 7.5 3.4 3.2 3.9
China 10.4 9.3 8.5 9.5
India 9.9 7.7 7.2 8.2
Indonesia 6.1 6.3 6.1 6.5
Russian Federation 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1
WORLD 5,0 3,8 3,4 4,3
Source: OECD Economic Outlook 90 database. – Elaboration: Luciano Roppa, 2012.
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16. IMPACT … meat consumption
USA: Meat Price and Consumption change
after feed price surge and economic crisis
Change in Price (06/07=100) Change in per capita consumption
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17. ACTIONS & CHALLENGES
- Produce more
(growth in population and purchasing power)
- Better
(food safety, animal well-being and sustainability)
- With less resources
(less land, water, labor, energy & higher prices)
- At a lower cost
(huge population with small income)
- With technology
(research, innovation …)
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18. ACTIONS … increase meat production
Meat production* growth 2010-2020: 19,7%
2010 2020 Quantity %
Million T Million T Million T
World 270,41 323,83 53,42 19,7
DEVELOPED 111,37 123,77 12,40 11,1
DEVELOPING 159,04 200,05 41,01 25,7
Latin America 46,28 57,31 11,0 23,8
* poultry, beef and pork
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
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19. Where meat production will grow?
2010 2020 Growth,
(million T) (million T) %
World 270,41 323,83 19,7
1 - China 72,62 89,51 23,2
2 - EU 27 42,10 43,80 4,0
3 - USA 40,80 46,39 13,7
4 - Brazil 25,13 31,18 24,1
5 - Russia 6,93 8,73 25,9
6 - India 6,12 7,79 27,3
7 - Mexico 5,59 6,93 23,9
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020” and MAPA, 2011
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20. ACTIONS … Poultry production growth
Projected world’s growth, 2010 to 2020: 2,5% per year
POULTRY, million 2010 2020
T
WORLD 97,546 122,411
Latin America 22,490 28,831
Share, % 23,0 23,5
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
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21. ACTIONS … Pork production growth
Projected world’s growth, 2010 to 2020: 1,8% per year
PORK, million T 2010 2020
WORLD 107,942 127,299
Latin America 6,710 8,245
Share, % 6,2 6,5
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
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22. ACTIONS … Beef production growth
Projected world’s growth, 2010 to 2020: 1,4% per year
BEEF, million T 2010 2020
WORLD 64,927 74,127
Latin America 17,085 20,232
Share, % 26,3 27,3
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
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23. ACTIONS … Milk production growth
Projected world’s growth, 2010 to 2020: 2,2% per year
MILK (KT) 2010 2020
WORLD 699.591 852.898
Latin America 76,44 93,85
Share, % 10,9 11,0
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
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24. ACTIONS … Who will Export?
Main meat exporters, 2020 (million MT)
Beef Pork Poultry Total
1 - Brazil 2,325 0,761 5,171 8,257
2 - USA 1,444 2,577 3,702 7,723
3 - Canada 0,912 1,399 0,196 2,507
4 - EU-27 0,138 1,459 0,898 2,495
World 10,457 7,568 12,526 30,551
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
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25. ACTIONS … Who will Import?
Main meat importers, 2020 (million MT)
Beef Poultry Pork Total
1 - USA 1,896 0,048 0,696 2,640
2 - Japan 0,770 0,343 1,114 2,227
3 - Mexico 0,377 0,858 0,559 1,794
4 - EU-27 0,635 0,883 0,037 1,555
5 - Russia 0,790 0,802 0,102 1,694
World 9,873 12,512 7,151 29,536
Source: L. Roppa, 2012 - Based: “OCDE-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020”, July 2011
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26. Production Surplus & Deficit
Surplus Deficit
Source: Goldman Sachs, 2011
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27. OUR CHALLENGES
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28. To reduce Food losses …
One-third of the edible parts of food produced for human consumption,
gets lost or wasted globally, which is about 1.3 billion ton per year
We need to reduce the current Food losses:
Meat 20%
Cereals 30%
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29. THE GENETIC CHALLENGE
The genetic selection linked to nutrition, is likely to change in favor of genotypes
capable of being productive in a range of commercial environments
2010 2020
BROILERS
Weight (g) 2.495 2.948
Average daily gain (g) 59 70
Days to 2.200 kg 37,3 31,4
SWINE
Piglets/sow/year 28 35
Meat(kg) / Sow / Year 2500 3500
Average Daily gain (30-100kg) 800 g 900-1000 g
Feed Conversion (30-100kg) 2,6 : 1 2,4 : 1
DAIRY CATTLE
Milk production, EMC 7.250 10.500
Age at first farrowing, months 28 25
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30. THE FOOD SAFETY CHALLENGE
Over the past 15 years, laboratory equipments
developed detections from ppm (parts per million)
to ppq (parts per quadrillion)
Additional legislation will affect the feed sector, including
environmental protection, feed hygiene and food-safety issues
Companies will only source feed, ingredients & additives
from suppliers with world-class food safety practices.
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31. THE RAW MATERIAL CHALLENGE
Raw material will increase their prices and some of them will be less available …
• Search for local and cheaper raw material alternatives
• Increasing usage of synthetic forms of essential Amino Acids
• Greater accuracy in dietary macronutrient and micronutrient provision (NIR)
• A more efficient conversion of by-products (rich in NSP) into high quality food
will remain a top priority area of research in the future (enzymes)
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32. THE EFFICIENCY CHALLENGE
The restricting or even banning of anti-infective is likely to continue ...
Growing demand for nutritional ideas, technologies and additives
that improve feed efficiency
 Anti Oxidants  Enzymes
 Prebiotics (MOSS)  Organic Minerals
 Probiotics  Essential oils
 Mycotoxin Binders  Immune stimulators
 Acidifiers  Synthetic Amino Acids
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33. Final comment …
“More food must be produced sustainably, through the spread and implementation
of existing knowledge and by the investment in technology and innovation”
Meat quality Animal welfare Food safety
Efficiency Environment
 Genomic technologies
 Nutraceuticals
 Food biotechnology
Innovation &  Immune modulators
Technologies  Organic minerals
(think Globally, act Locally)  New Enzymes
 Ingredients processing
 Carbon reduction
 Mathematical models
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L.

34. Thank you for your attention!
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