In an (unguarded?) conversation with a journalist, I talked about a 'cliff-edge' measure of segregation where neighbouring places have very different proportions of their resident population classified as White British in the 2011 Census. The words, rephrased as 'ethnic cliffs' was soon coupled with talk of White Flight from British cities and has appeared in a number of national newspapers and magazines, alongside like 'self-segregation' and 'sundown segregation' (The Sunday Times and the Daily Mail). In this presentation I look at changes to the ethnic composition of census zones in England from 2001 to 2011 and ask whether such phrases are unhelpful hyperbole or simply vivid but accurate descriptors of "Britain's new problem" (Goodhart, 2013 writing in Prospect Magazine).

1. +
White flight, ethnic cliffs
and other unhelpful
hyperbole?
Richard Harris

2. Greater London+ (change: 2001 to 2011)

4. Distribution of ethnic group by boroughs, counties and unitary authorities
●
●●●●
●●
●● ●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
● ●
●●
●●
●
●●
● ●●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
% White
< 71.5
< 88.5
< 93.6
< 94.4
< 96.6
< 97.6
White: English/Welsh/
Scottish/Northern
Irish/British
●
●
Greatest percentage in Redcar and Cleveland
Greatest contrast between
Redbridge and Essex
(c) Creative Commons Licence, Rich Harris

5. +
Headlines
n ‘White flight’ in UK as mass immigration leads
to segregation (RT, May 6)
n “600,000 move out in decade of 'white flight'
from London” (Mail Online, Feb 20)
n “Let's talk about the exodus of 600,000 whites
from London - It is not wrong to discuss the
cultural changes that large-scale immigration
can cause, such as 'white flight' from certain
areas in London” (The Telegraph, Feb 22)

6. +
The Sunday Times (Jan 27, 2013)

7. +
The Daily Mail online (Jan 27, 2013)

8. +
At a much finer scale
n There is a census small area in Tower
Hamlets where 142 of its 258 residents
classified themselves as White British in the
2011 Census (55.0%) and a further three as
Bangladeshi (1.16%). Meanwhile, in a
neighbouring area, 23 of the 211 residents
are White British (10.9%) and 142
Bangladeshi (67.3%).

9. +
At a much finer scale
n There is a census small area in Oldham
where one area has a total population of
247, of which 173 are White British (70.0%)
and seven Bangladeshi (2.83%), whereas a
neighbour has a population of 566, of which
three are White British (0.530%) and 511
Bangladeshi (90.2%).

10. +
But segregation is decreasing?
n Ethnic segregation is falling in England
(Catney, 2013)
n A lower proportion of the White British
population are now living in majority White
neighbourhoods than did in 2001 – a
finding that is as true of London alone as for
the whole of England (Johnston et al., 2013)

11. Source: Johnston (forthcoming)
Increasing diversity within increasing diversity: the changing ethnic
composition of London’s neighbourhoods,2001-2011
White (2001) White (2011)
5 103 176 4 887 435

12. +
However…
n These are relative measures
n Not straightforward to interpret over time
Dt1 − Dt0 f Δ xi X[ ],Δ yi Y[ ]( )
t0 t1 Assume D1 < D0
Is it decreased seg.?

13. +
For example
n Consider those local authorities where the
% of the residential population classified as
Indian in 2001 was > 1.84% (top quintile)
n Of these, 89% have “decreased
segregation” by 2011
(Of the exceptions, Brent has the greatest
increase)
n But, amongst those 89%, 88% have lost
White British population

14. +
For example
n Consider those local authorities where the
% of the residential population classified as
Pakistani in 2001 was > 1.04% (top quintile)
n Of these, 92% have “decreased
segregation” by 2011
(Of the exceptions, Burnley has the greatest
increase)
n But, amongst those 92%, 88% have lost
White British population

15. +
For example
n Consider those local authorities where the %
of the residential population classified as
Bangladeshi in 2001 was > 0.32% (top quintile)
n Of these, 94% have “decreased segregation”
by 2011
(Of the exceptions, Kensington & Chelsea has the
greatest increase)
n But, amongst those 94%, 84% have lost White
British population

16. +
n It’s not just because the White British
population is decreasing everywhere (it
isn’t)
n In the 214 (of 326) local authorities that
didn’t meet any of the previous criteria,
81% had a growth in their White British
population

17. +
But, is it ‘white flight’?
n It is important to understand that the proportion of
white British Londoners fell so dramatically – from
60 per cent in 2001 to 44.9 per cent in 2011 – not
only because of high levels of immigration but also
thanks to a mass exodus of white Britons […]
n White flight is an emotive term that suggests
discomfort with the changing racial composition of
a neighbourhood. Clearly there are many reasons
why white British people might want to leave
London […] but merely by considering where it is
happening, there appears to be prima facie
evidence that white flight has played a role.
n David Goodhart (Financial Times, Dec 26, 2012)

18. +
Alternative perspectives
n Migration and mobility
n To the BBC’s Home editor, Mark Easton, the
decrease in the White British population in
London is “a story of aspiration”,“a story of
success” – a process of migration where
traditionally working class (white)
households have been financially able to
move out from London’s East End, to the outer
boroughs and then further beyond the city
(Easton, 2013). http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/
uk-21511904

19. +
Alternative perspectives
n Not white flight but ‘white avoidance’
n Demos report (Kaufman, 2013)
n White British people choosing not to live in
‘minority-dominated areas’
n Commenting on the report, the process is
described as “majority retreat” by Trevor
Philips

20. +
Alternative perspectives
n Why the preoccupation with White British?
n Katwala (New Statements, Feb 20): “A fall in
London’s ‘white British’ population does not
mean the city is now ‘majority-migrant’”.
n 63 per cent of Londoners were born in Britain
n The population of London is 60 per cent white
n Three-quarters of Londoners are British citizens
http://www.newstatesman.com/staggers/
2013/02/truth-about-londons-white-flight

21. +
Alternative perspectives
n Why the preoccupation with residential
‘segregation’? (cf. Cantle, 2012)

22. +
Alternative perspectives
n Assuming there is segregation, and
supposing it is to some extent ‘voluntary’
are there circumstances when it, for
example, cultivates civic virtues that
promote the good of one’s community
n See Equality, Citizenship, and Segregation: A
Defense of Separation by Michael Merry
(2013)

23. +And yet… Wordle of the comments in
response to the Daily Mail online article

24. +Wordle of the highest rated comments on
the Mark Easton article

25. +‘Highly rated’ comment in response to the
Mark Easton article
n Why have the White British left London?
n “Some of the Areas have become very Asian
oriented with shops that cater more for Asian
people Halal Butchers, Bangladeshi Bakers,
Mosques and Temples, local shops that are
dominated by Asian foods and spices, and that
cater very little for non Asian tastes. Is it any
wonder the White people move out? People
feel like strangers in the town where they were
born.”

26. +Highest rated comment in response to the
Mark Easton article
n Why have the White British left London?
n “They have left because they've been pushed
out by migrants. A few weeks ago we heard of
some Islamic "men" castigating a man for not
being Muslim, asking if he was gay, and
telling him to "get out, this is a Muslim area”.
Their exact words were played on the radio
so there was no doubt over it.Time for the
govt. to do something about such migrants”

27. +
n You can also find evidence of similar
(although not perhaps as strong)
sentiments in (the respondents of) e.g.
n Dench et al. (2006) The New East End: Kinship,
Race and Conflict. London: Profile Books Ltd.
n Butler,T. & Hamnett, C. (2011) Ethnicity,Class
and Aspiration. Bristol: Policy Press.

28. +
White Flight, Ethnic Cliffs:
Unhelpful hyperbole?
n Simplistic, certainly.
n Adds a rhetorical flourish of terror, panic,
stark divides, etc.
n Ignore other demographic and social
processes
n And yet…

29. +
My dilemma

30. +
But I am probably guilty of