A commentary on a graphic submitted to the journal Environment and Planning A as one of its featured graphics. That graphic aims to capture various dimensions of population change within English local authorities from 1991 to 2011: the proportional increase in the Asian population, the decrease in the White British population, generally decreasing Asian - White British segregation within authorities on average but with that average concealing some increases in spatial heterogeneity: increased differences between some neighbouring small areas (and also increased differences between local authorities). To see the graph, please visit http://www.social-statistics.org/?p=1064

1. Commentary:
Ethno-­‐demographic
change
in
English
local
authorities,
1991-­‐2011
Richard
Harris,
School
of
Geographical
Sciences,
University
of
Bristol,
University
Road,
Bristol.
BS8
1SS.
rich.harris@bris.ac.uk
A
well
reported
statistic
from
the
2011
Census
results
is
that
London
is
no
longer
a
majority
‘White
British’
city:
it
is
44.9
per
cent
White
British,
down
from
59.8
in
2001.
That
decrease
of
14.9
percentage
points
is
the
greatest
of
any
English
region,
leading
to
reports
about
‘white
flight’
and
‘ethnic
cliffs’
–
one
report,
for
example,
contrasting
the
30
percentage
decline
in
the
White
British
population
in
the
local
authority
of
Redbridge
to
the
2
per
cent
increase
in
the
neighbouring
authority
of
Essex
(Hellen,
2013;
see
also
Goodhart,
2013).
Meanwhile,
other
commentators
observe
that
ethnic
segregation
appears
to
be
falling
in
England
(Catney,
2013)
with
a
lower
proportion
of
the
White
British
population
now
living
in
majority
White
neighbourhoods
than
they
did
in
2001
–
a
finding
also
true
of
London
(Johnston
et
al.,
2013).
These
reports
differ
in
emphasis
but
are
not
in
contradiction;
rather,
they
highlight
the
multiple
processes
driving
ethno-­‐
demographic
change
across
the
country
and
how
these
can
be
interpreted
in
more
than
one
way.
A
graphical
challenge
is
to
present
the
Census
data
in
ways
that
allow
complex
stories
to
be
told.
Figure
1
is
a
screen
shot
from
one
of
a
number
of
Motion
Charts
viewable
from
http://www.social-­‐statistics.org/?p=1064
and
of
the
sort
popularised
by
Hans
Rosling
(www.gapminder.org);
here
implemented
using
Google
Docs.1
It
has
been
submitted
to
the
journal
Environment
and
Planning
A
for
consideration
as
a

2. ‘featured
graphic’
(see
http://www.envplan.com/graphics_a.html
for
other
interesting
examples).
On
the
chart,
each
circle
represents
a
local
authority
where
at
least
three
per
cent
of
the
residential
population
classified
itself
as
Asian
in
the
1991,
2001
or
2011
Census
(specifically:
as
Bangladeshi,
Indian
or
Pakistani).2
The
increase
in
their
number
–
177
(of
326)
authorities
in
1991,
206
in
2001
and
236
in
2011
–
is
itself
revealing:
it
suggests
a
process
of
migration
out
from
more
traditional
centres
such
as
Tower
Hamlets
and
neighbouring
Newham
(Dench
et
al.,
2006)
towards
the
edges
of
the
Greater
London
conurbation
including
Epping
Forest,
Dartford,
Medway
and
beyond.
The
horizontal
axis
of
the
graph
indicates
the
residential
separation
of
the
Asian
from
the
White
British
population
within
each
authority
at
the
time
of
each
census.3
Its
measure
is
the
widely
used
dissimilarity
index
(Duncan
&
Duncan,
1955)
where
the
areal
units
for
the
calculations
are
the
census
small
area
statistics
for
each
of
the
local
authorities.4
At
each
census
the
distributions
of
the
Asian
and
White
British
populations
are
most
dissimilar
within
Oldham
but
by
2011
Burnley
–
which
saw
the
rate
of
decrease
in
its
White
British
population
accelerate
from
2001
–
had
a
level
of
segregation
increased
to
nearly
match
Oldham’s.
Both
were
amongst
the
cities
exhibiting
ethnic
tension
and
civil
disturbances
in
2001
(Cantle,
2001).
At
each
time
period
the
circle
is
shaded
according
to
the
proportion
of
the
resident
population
that
is
Asian.
In
2011
the
highest
proportions
are
in
places

3. including
Tower
Hamlets,
Newham,
Slough,
Redbridge,
Leicester
and
Harrow.
From
2001
onwards
the
size
of
the
circles
indicate
the
intercensal
rate
of
change
in
the
White
British
population.
Both
Newham
and
Tower
Hamlets
appear
to
have
less
White
British
residents
in
2001
than
they
do
in
1991
and
their
number
falls
again
by
2011.
The
rate
of
loss
slows
in
Tower
Hamlets
whereas
in
Newham
it
increases.
The
latter
is
also
true
of
Leicester.
However,
in
Leicester
the
net
effect
of
White
British
losses
and
a
growing
Asian
population
is
that
the
dissimilarity
index
rises.
In
Newham
(and
Tower
Hamlets)
it
decreases.
The
fifth
and
final
dimension
of
the
graph
is
the
spatial
discontinuity
score
given
on
the
vertical
axis.
That
score
is
calculated
in
regard
to
the
Asian
–
White
British
populations
by
finding
the
greatest
dissimilarities
between
neighbouring
small
areas
within
local
authorities
and
then
averaging
over
the
top
ten
per
cent.5
The
greater
the
value,
the
greater
the
Asian
–
White
British
contrast
between
(some)
neighbouring
zones
within
each
authority.
Whilst
the
dissimilarity
index
suggests
that
Asian-­‐White
British
segregation
is
falling
on
average
within
local
authorities,
that
average
conceals
internal
heterogeneity
and
a
rise
in
the
differences
between
some
neighbouring
zones
over
the
decade
from
2001
to
2011.6

4.
Figure
1.
An
example
of
using
a
Motion
Chart
to
explore
ethno-­‐demographic
change
in
English
local
authorities,
1991-­‐2011.
Software
used
The
maptools
and
spdep
libraries
in
R
(Bivand
&
Lewin-­‐Koh,
2013;
Bivand
et.
al.,
2013),
and
Google
Docs
Motion
Charts
Gadget.
Acknowledgments

5. Census
output
is
Crown
copyright
and
is
reproduced
with
the
permission
of
the
Controller
of
HMSO
and
the
Queen's
Printer
for
Scotland.
I
am
also
grateful
to
David
Manley
for
comments
on
earlier
versions
of
the
charts.
References
Bivand,
R.
with
contributions
by
Altman,
M.,
Anselin,
L.,
Assunção,
R.,
Berke,
O.,
Bernat,
A.,
Blanchet,
G.,
Blankmeyer,
E.,
Carvalho,
M.,
Christensen,
B.,
Chun,
Y.,
Dormann,
C.,
Dray,
S.,
Halbersma,
R.,
Krainski,
E.,
Legendre,
P.,
Lewin-­‐Koh,
N.,
Li,
H.,
Ma,
J.,
Millo,
G.,
Mueller,
W.,
Ono,
H.,
Peres-­‐Neto,
P.,
Piras,
G.,
Reder,
M.,
Tiefelsdorf,
M.,
&
Yu.,
D.
(2013)
spdep:
Spatial
dependence:
weighting
schemes,
statistics
and
models.
R
package
version
0.5-­‐56.
http://CRAN.R-­‐
project.org/package=spdep
Bivand,
R.
&
Lewin-­‐Koh,
N.
(2013)
maptools:
Tools
for
reading
and
handling
spatial
objects.
R
package
version
0.8-­‐23.
http://CRAN.R-­‐
project.org/package=maptools
Cantle,
T.
(2001)
The
Cantle
Report
-­‐
Community
Cohesion:
a
report
of
the
Independent
Review.
London:
The
Home
Office.
Catney,
G.
(2013)
Has
Neighbourhood
Ethnic
Segregation
Decreased?
The
Dynamics
of
Diversity:
evidence
from
the
2011
Census
Briefing.
Manchester:
Centre
on
Dynamics
of
Ethnicity
(CoDE).
Dench
G.,
Gavron
K.
&
Young,
M.
(2006)
The
New
East
End.
Kinship,
Race
and
Conflict.
London:
Profile
Books.
Duncan
O.
D.
&
Duncan,
B.
(1955)
Occupational
stratification
and
residential
distribution.
American
Journal
of
Sociology,
60
(5),
493
–
503.

6. Goodhart,
D.
(2013)
White
flight?
Britain’s
new
problem
–
segregation.
Prospect,
February
2013,
pp.
30
–
31.
Hellen,
N.
(2013)
Britons
‘self-­‐segregate’
as
white
flight
soars.
The
Sunday
Times,
January
27,
2013,
p.
15
Johnston,
R.,
Poulsen,
M.
&
Forrest,
J.
(2013)
Multiethnic
residential
areas
in
a
multiethnic
country?
A
decade
of
major
change
in
England
and
Wales.
Environment
and
Planning
A,
45
(4),
753
–
759.
1
See
http://www.gapminder.org/upload-­‐data/motion-­‐chart/
for
a
simple
tutorial.
2
For
consistency
the
boundaries
and
names
of
the
local
authorities
as
of
2011
are
used
for
all
years
even
though
the
change
between
years
generally
is
slight.
3
White
British
was
not
used
as
an
ethnic
category
in
1991
although
it
was
in
the
2001
and
2011
Censuses
when
interest
in
immigration
from
other
parts
of
Europe
increased.
For
1991
the
White
British
population
is
estimated
as
those
who
classified
themselves
as
White
minus
those
born
in
Ireland.
It
will
be
an
over-­‐estimate
of
the
White
British
group.
4
The
index
will
reach
zero
if
the
share
of
the
authority’s
Asian
population
in
each
small
area
is
equal
to
the
share
of
the
White
British
population.
It
will
reach
one
if
all
of
the
areas
within
the
authority
contain
either
an
Asian
or
White
British
population
but
not
a
mixture
of
both.
5
The
index
will
reach
one
if,
in
the
ten
percent
most
extreme
cases,
one
zone
contains
no
White
British
residents
whilst
its
neighbor
contains
no
Asian
residents.
6
The
differences
between
local
authorities
also
appear
to
be
rising:
a
dissimilarity
score
of
0.30
in
1991,
0.34
in
2001
and
0.39
in
2011.
Only
authorities
where
the
percentage
of
the
population
that
is
Asian
is
at
least
three
per
cent
are
included
in
these
calculations.