The new Thailand Power Report forecasts that Thailand will account for 1.74% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2014, with a broadly balanced supply/demand picture. BMI's estimates for 2009 suggest Asia Pacific regional generation of 7,324 terawatt hours (TWh). We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,730TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 32.85% in 2009-2014. Thermal power generation in 2009 totalled an estimated 5,747TWh, accounting for 79.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,493TWh, implying 30.38% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 77.9%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Thailand's thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 130TWh, or 2.22% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 2.00% of thermal generation. Oil is the dominant fuel in Thailand, accounting for an estimated 40.8% of primary energy demand (PED) in 2009, followed by gas at 37.2%, coal at 17.1% and hydro-electricity with a 1.8% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,335mn toe by 2014, representing 31.69% growth from the estimated 2009 level. Thailand's estimated 2009 market share of 2.15% is set to fall to 1.95% by 2014. An estimated 7TWh of hydro-electric demand in 2009 is forecast to reach 8TWh by 2014, with its share of the Asia Pacific hydro market easing from an estimated 0.75% to 0.61% over the period. While there is no existing or near-term nuclear capacity, tentative plans exist for the construction of reactors, but there is no clear government policy. Thailand is now shares sixth place with Vietnam and Indonesia in BMI's updated and extended Power Business Environment rating, thanks largely to its energy demand, plus moderate scores in most other categories. Vietnam has the longer-term potential to pull away, while the presence of the Philippines below also poses a threat during the next few quarters. BMI is now forecasting Thai real GDP growth averaging 3.90% per annum between 2010 and 2014, with the 2009 assumption being a decline of 3.10%. Population is expected to expand from 64.7mn to 66.7mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 62% and 14% respectively. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 142TWh in 2009 to 168TWh by the end of the forecast period, requiring some power imports during periods of peak demand, assuming 2.3% average annual growth in electricity generation. Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Thai electricity generation of 38.4%, which is below average for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 17.1% in the 2014-2019 period, down from 18.2% in 2009-2014. PED growth is set to increase from 19.5% in 2009-2014 to 21.7%, representing 45.4% for the entire forecast period. Hydro generation is expected to rise by 14% between 2009 and 2019, with thermal power generation forecast to increase by 35% over the same period. Renewables consumption should almost double between 2009 and 2019. More detailed long-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.

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Thailand Power Report Q2 2010
Published on April 2010
Report Summary
The new Thailand Power Report forecasts that Thailand will account for 1.74% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2014,
with a broadly balanced supply/demand picture. BMI's estimates for 2009 suggest Asia Pacific regional generation of 7,324 terawatt
hours (TWh). We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,730TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 32.85% in
2009-2014.
Thermal power generation in 2009 totalled an estimated 5,747TWh, accounting for 79.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region.
Our forecast for 2014 is 7,493TWh, implying 30.38% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 77.9%. This is
thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Thailand's thermal
generation in 2009 was an estimated 130TWh, or 2.22% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 2.00%
of thermal generation.
Oil is the dominant fuel in Thailand, accounting for an estimated 40.8% of primary energy demand (PED) in 2009, followed by gas at
37.2%, coal at 17.1% and hydro-electricity with a 1.8% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,335mn toe by
2014, representing 31.69% growth from the estimated 2009 level. Thailand's estimated 2009 market share of 2.15% is set to fall to
1.95% by 2014. An estimated 7TWh of hydro-electric demand in 2009 is forecast to reach 8TWh by 2014, with its share of the Asia
Pacific hydro market easing from an estimated 0.75% to 0.61% over the period. While there is no existing or near-term nuclear
capacity, tentative plans exist for the construction of reactors, but there is no clear government policy.
Thailand is now shares sixth place with Vietnam and Indonesia in BMI's updated and extended Power Business Environment rating,
thanks largely to its energy demand, plus moderate scores in most other categories. Vietnam has the longer-term potential to pull
away, while the presence of the Philippines below also poses a threat during the next few quarters.
BMI is now forecasting Thai real GDP growth averaging 3.90% per annum between 2010 and 2014, with the 2009 assumption being
a decline of 3.10%. Population is expected to expand from 64.7mn to 66.7mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity
consumption per capita forecast to increase by 62% and 14% respectively. The country's power consumption is expected to increase
from an estimated 142TWh in 2009 to 168TWh by the end of the forecast period, requiring some power imports during periods of
peak demand, assuming 2.3% average annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Thai electricity generation of 38.4%, which is below average for the Asia
Pacific region. This equates to 17.1% in the 2014-2019 period, down from 18.2% in 2009-2014. PED growth is set to increase from
19.5% in 2009-2014 to 21.7%, representing 45.4% for the entire forecast period. Hydro generation is expected to rise by 14%
between 2009 and 2019, with thermal power generation forecast to increase by 35% over the same period. Renewables consumption
should almost double between 2009 and 2019. More detailed long-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
Table of Content
Executive Summary ..........5
SWOT Analysis .7
Industry Overview ...........10
Global .... 10
Asia Pacific Region .... 11
Market Overview ..............18
Thailand Power Report Q2 2010 Page 1/5

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Primary Energy Demand ..... 18
Power Generation ...... 19
Power Consumption ... 20
Regulation And Competition 21
Pricing ... 22
Power Transmission .. 23
Business Environment ...24
Asia Pacific Power Business Environment Ratings ............... 24
Thailand's Power Rating ..... 25
Legal Framework ....... 26
Infrastructure ............. 29
Labour Force ............. 30
Foreign Investment Policy ... 31
Tax Regime ................ 32
Security Risk .............. 33
Industry Forecast Scenario 34
Thailand's Power Outlook ... 34
Generation 34
Gas-Fired . 35
Oil-Fired 35
Coal-Fired 35
Nuclear Energy .......... 35
Hydro-Electric ........... 36
Renewable Energy ..... 36
Power Costs ............... 36
Transmission .............. 37
Assumptions And Methodology ............. 40
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario . 40
Long-Term Power Outlook .. 40
Macroeconomic Outlook ...... 40
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts .........43
Global Snapshot ......... 43
Asia Pacific Outlook .. 43
Thailand Overview ..... 48
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts ... 48
Competitive Landscape ..50
Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) .......... 50
Independent Power (Thailand) ............. 51
Glow Energy .............. 51
CLP/EGCO ................ 52
Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding Public Company Limited (RATCH) . 52
Country Snapshot: Thailand Demographic Data .........53
Section 1: Population . 53
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ........ 53
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ....... 54
Section 2: Education And Healthcare ... 54
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ............... 54
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ......... 54
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power .. 55
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 55
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Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 55
Table: Average Annual Non-Agricultural Wages, 2001-2012 .. 56
BMI Methodology ............57
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 57
Power Industry .......... 57
Cross Checks ............. 58
Sources ....... 58
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