BMI View: China is continuing to show its agricultural strength, with production growth forecast across all major sectors. Rising incomes and increased urbanisation should lead to significant increases in livestock and milk consumption, which in turn should lead to continued production increases in grains for feed. Despite the positive momentum, persistent safety concerns (especially in the dairy sector) and trade disputes (affecting soy oil imports) remain pertinent risks to the continued growth of certain sectors. Key Forecasts Soybean consumption growth to 2014: 30%. Growth will be driven by strong demand from the livestock sector for soybean meal and soybean oil being the most popular edible oil in the country. Pork and poultry consumption growth to 2014: 31% and 39% respectively, due to rising incomes leading to a more diversified diet among lower income consumers. Milk production growth to 2014: 29%. This growth will be driven by increasing domestic demand, as well as greater consolidation of the sector, along with the entry of foreign firms that will improve efficiency. 2010 Real GDP Growth: 8.8% (up from 8.7% in 2009; predicted to average 8.1% from now until 2014). Consumer Price Inflation: 6.6% y-o-y in June 2010 (up from .71% y-o-y in June 2009). Industry Developments The dairy sector remains one of the fastest growing sub-sectors in China's food industry. The production of dairy products in China, especially milk and whole milk powder, has been increasing rapidly in recent years. This is being fuelled by rising disposable incomes, increased urbanisation and improved affordability of domestic cold storage facilities and improved awareness of the health benefits of dairy products. Since 2003, per capita rice consumption in China has been in decline as consumers have traded up to nonstaple foods in line with their growing affluence and the rapid pace of urbanisation in the country. In 2009, as economic uncertainty continued, consumption rose again, climbing 1.5% year-on-year to 129.3mn tonnes. From 2010 on, however, we expect the trend towards falling rice demand to resume as domestic economic growth continues and consumers again look to trade up their consumption habits. Rising disposable incomes have had a pronounced impact on sugar consumption in China, as growth in the sector is being fuelled by the country's mass market industries, such as soft drinks and confectionary. Over the forecast period through to 2014, we expect consumption to rise by 26.2% to reach 18.7mn tonnes. This will be the result of increases in soft drinks and confectionary consumption, of which we forecast volume sales to increase by 97% and 55% respectively from their 2009 levels.

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China Agribusiness Report Q4 2010
Published on August 2010
Report Summary
BMI View: China is continuing to show its agricultural strength, with production growth forecast across all major sectors. Rising
incomes and increased urbanisation should lead to significant increases in livestock and milk consumption, which in turn should lead
to continued production increases in grains for feed. Despite the positive momentum, persistent safety concerns (especially in the
dairy sector) and trade disputes (affecting soy oil imports) remain pertinent risks to the continued growth of certain sectors.
Key Forecasts
Soybean consumption growth to 2014: 30%. Growth will be driven by strong demand from the livestock sector for soybean meal and
soybean oil being the most popular edible oil in the country. Pork and poultry consumption growth to 2014: 31% and 39%
respectively, due to rising incomes leading to a more diversified diet among lower income consumers.
Milk production growth to 2014: 29%. This growth will be driven by increasing domestic demand, as well as greater consolidation of
the sector, along with the entry of foreign firms that will improve efficiency.
2010 Real GDP Growth: 8.8% (up from 8.7% in 2009; predicted to average 8.1% from now until 2014). Consumer Price Inflation:
6.6% y-o-y in June 2010 (up from .71% y-o-y in June 2009).
Industry Developments
The dairy sector remains one of the fastest growing sub-sectors in China's food industry. The production of dairy products in China,
especially milk and whole milk powder, has been increasing rapidly in recent years. This is being fuelled by rising disposable incomes,
increased urbanisation and improved affordability of domestic cold storage facilities and improved awareness of the health benefits of
dairy products.
Since 2003, per capita rice consumption in China has been in decline as consumers have traded up to nonstaple foods in line with
their growing affluence and the rapid pace of urbanisation in the country. In 2009, as economic uncertainty continued, consumption
rose again, climbing 1.5% year-on-year to 129.3mn tonnes. From 2010 on, however, we expect the trend towards falling rice demand
to resume as domestic economic growth continues and consumers again look to trade up their consumption habits. Rising disposable
incomes have had a pronounced impact on sugar consumption in China, as growth in the sector is being fuelled by the country's
mass market industries, such as soft drinks and confectionary. Over the forecast period through to 2014, we expect consumption to
rise by 26.2% to reach 18.7mn tonnes. This will be the result of increases in soft drinks and confectionary consumption, of which we
forecast volume sales to increase by 97% and 55% respectively from their 2009 levels.
Table of Content
Executive Summary ...... 6
Key Forecasts ......... 7
Industry Developments ..... 7
SWOT Analysis .... 9
China Agricultural SWOT . 9
China Political SWOT .... 10
China Economic SWOT .. 11
China Business Environment SWOT ... 12
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 13
China Sugar Outlook ...... 13
China Agribusiness Report Q4 2010 Page 1/5

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China Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade .... 13
China Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade .... 15
China Dairy Outlook . 16
China Milk Production & Consumption ....... 17
China Butter Production, Consumption & Trade ... 17
China Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade .. 17
China Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade ... 17
China Milk Production & Consumption ....... 21
China Butter Production, Consumption & Trade ... 22
China Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade .. 22
China Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade ... 22
China Soybean Outlook - Q4 2010 24
CHINA Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade ........ 25
CHINA Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade ........ 27
China Rice Outlook .... 28
CHINA Rice Production, Consumption & Trade .... 28
CHINA Rice Production, Consumption & Trade .... 29
China Grains Outlook 31
CHINA Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade . 32
CHINA Corn Production, Consumption & Trade ... 32
CHINA Barley Production, Consumption & Trade . 33
CHINA Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade . 36
CHINA Corn Production, Consumption & Trade ... 36
CHINA Barley Production, Consumption & Trade . 36
China Livestock Outlook ...... 38
CHINA Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade ......... 39
CHINA Pork Production, Consumption & Trade ... 39
CHINA Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade .. 39
CHINA Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade ......... 42
CHINA Pork Production, Consumption & Trade ... 43
CHINA Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade .. 43
Competitive Landscape ........ 44
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders ..... 44
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers .. 45
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers..... 46
Commodity Price Analysis .... 47
Monthly Softs Update . 47
Cocoa 47
Table: Cocoa ........ 47
Coffee 48
Table: Coffee ........ 48
Milk ... 49
Table: Milk . 49
Sugar 50
Table: Sugar ......... 50
Monthly Grains Update ....... 51
Corn .. 51
Table: Corn 51
Rice ... 52
Table: Rice .. 52
China Agribusiness Report Q4 2010 Page 2/5

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Soybean ...... 53
Table: Soybean ..... 53
Wheat 54
Table: Wheat......... 54
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis ........ 55
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 55
Food Consumption 55
Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2007-2014 ..... 56
Canned Food ........ 57
Canned Food, Frozen Food And Instant Noodle Sales -- Historical & Forecast Sales Data, 2007-2014 57
Instant Noodles ..... 58
Confectionery........ 58
Confectionery Sales -- Historical & Forecast Sales Data, 2007-2014 ... 59
Trade 60
China Food & Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2007-2014 ...... 61
Mass Grocery Retail .. 62
Mass Grocery Retail ....... 62
Industry Forecast Scenario ....... 62
China MGR Retail Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts ...... 64
Grocery Retail Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts .. 64
Economic Analysis ..... 65
Table: China ' Economic Activity ...... 66
Company News Alert .. 67
Chinese Firm Will Need Long ... 67
Company Finance Alert ........ 69
Yashili's IPO Launch Underlines Massive Dairy Potential......... 69
Company Brief . 72
Fujiya to Construct New Manufacturing Plant ....... 72
Global Food & Drink View ..... 73
Food & Drink: Core Views ....... 73
Short-Term Views . 74
BMI Interest Rate Expectations (end of period) ...... 76
BMI Food & Drink Core Views 78
BMI Forecast Modelling ........ 80
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ........ 80
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