Categorisation of the data allows us to finely analyse exactly what impact a specific event is having on the online conversation about and perception of a specific party or politician - be it an external world event or an internal policy decision. With enough data, predictive models can be built to project the probable impact of internal decisions. This type of analysis provides intelligent, real-time feedback and is a powerful strategic tool.

1. Situational Analytics
2013-2016

2. The Impact of Internal Decisions and External Factors
The following two cases are examples of situational analysis. Both these cases have been
done in retrospect however this analysis can be done in real time. With enough data
predictive models can be built to project the probable impact of internal decisions.
Categorisation of the data allows us to finely analyse exactly what impact a specific event
- be it an external world event or an internal policy decision or a political landscape
change - is having on the online conversation and perception of the Democratic Alliance.

3. Internal Decisions
22 August 2016 - Herman Mashaba is elected Mayor of Johannesburg
Positive conversation about DA+Multi Party
follows the same trend line as general DA
positive, although volumes are slightly lower.
Neutral DA conversation increases in the
week of the 16th to 19th of August due to
weekday reporting on coalition speculations.
The breaking news on the 22nd
resulted in neutral DA conversation
(reporting and fact sharing) posting the
largest volume spike across the
categories.
General DA positive and DA+Multi
Party positive conversations
immediately decrease after the 22nd to
levels lower than the previous work
week.
In contrast there seems to be a small
knee-jerk reaction on the 23rd from the
general DA negative conversation.

4. Internal Decisions
22 August 2016 - Herman Mashaba is elected Mayor of Johannesburg
Pro DA vs EFF conversation as well as Pro
DA vs ANC conversation follow the basic
volume trend line of the total conversation.
The standout to this trend in party
comparison conversation is the
Pro EFF vs DA conversation on the
16th and 17th of August. This spike
does mimic the general DA positive
and DA+Multi Party positive conversation
for the corresponding days.

5. Internal Decisions
22 August 2016 - Herman Mashaba is elected Mayor of Johannesburg
The sentiment of the total DA conversation between 15 and 29 August 2016 was 9% less
positive and 9% more negative when compared to the sentiment of all South African Twitter
conversation for the same timeframe.
For the total DA conversation, negative sentiment (30%) significantly outweighed
the positive sentiment (19%) between 15 and 29 August. The 22nd of August was
only day where positive sentiment was higher (24% compared to 21% negative).

6. External Factors
05 December 2013 - Death of Madiba announced to public
15 December 2013 - State funeral for Nelson Rolihlahla Mandela
Over the two week period between 05 and 19 December 2013 the volume of general DA positive
conversation was higher (20%) than the general DA negative conversation(14%).
Notably, the days of the 5th and the 15th positive conversation referencing the DA was significantly
higher than negative.
On the 6th of
December the
volumes of
general DA
positive and
negative
conversation were
near identical.
In contrast, on the 16th of
December the volume of
negative general DA
conversation was 3.5
times higher than positive
DA general conversation.

7. External Factors
05 December 2013 - Death of Madiba announced to public
15 December 2013 - State funeral for Nelson Rolihlahla Mandela
In analysis of the DA vs ANC conversation for the 5 to 19 December period, the Pro DA conversation
has twice the volume as the Pro ANC conversation.
There are, however, two
separate days when Pro ANC
conversation outweighs the Pro
DA conversation:
On the 8th of December there
is 4 times the volume of Pro
ANC vs DA conversation when
compared to Pro DA vs ANC;
and more than double the
volume on the 12th.
In the DA vs EFF
conversation, Pro
EFF volumes are
twice as high
during this two
week period when
compared to Pro
DA.

8. External Factors
The sentiment of the total DA conversation between 5 and 19 December 2013 was 11% less
positive and 6% more negative when compared to the sentiment of all South African Twitter
conversation for the same timeframe.
For the total DA conversation, negative sentiment (42%) significantly outweighed the positive
sentiment (18%) between 5 and 19 December. The biggest disparity was on the 16th of December
when 58% of the conversation was negative in sentiment compared to only 15% positive.
05 December 2013 - Death of Madiba announced to public
15 December 2013 - State funeral for Nelson Rolihlahla Mandela

9. END