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2012 Reenergize the Americas Keynote: Abbas Ghassemi
- 1. Energy- sources, availability, demand, affordability, delivery Sustainability and Water
- 2. Millions of Barrels per year Peak Oil World What is the problem? Our energy needs fall into two categories: • Power • Transportation Both are presently dominated by fossil fuels but can be met with a realistic combination of fossil, renewable and nuclear. The pressing issues: • Water use in Energy Production- competing with food production and water supply demand • World peak oil (gas and even coal) scenarios oil ~ 2010-2020 gas ~ 2030-2050 coal ~ 2060-2080
- 3. World Population and Energy Needs 12 1400 Energy Consumption (Qbtu / yr) World 10 Population 1200 Population (Billions) 8 1000 World Energy 800 6 Consumption 600 4 Population of 400 2 Industrialized Countries 200 0 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year
- 4. 40 40 historic projected (trillion kilowatt-hours per year) World Power Consumption 30 30 20 20 World presently at 15 trillion kWhrs/year 10 10 U. S. presently at 4 trillion kWhrs/year 1980 2000 2020 2040
- 5. Access to energy is essential to quality of life CA France Japan Human Development Index (H D I) 1.0 UK U.S. able stain cal Su thi Canada and e Germany Russia Australia 0.8 China Iran Indonesia 0.6 India Prosperity Pakistan Papua New Guinea Education Angola Life span Ethiopia 0.4 Niger 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 Annual Electricity Use (kWh/Capita) 80% of the world’s population of over 6 billion people is below 0.8 on the U.N. Human Development Index (HDI) Source: United Nations Development Program; McFarlane 2006
- 6. Energy Issues Map of Global Energy Poverty 1.6 billion people have no access to electricity, Source: McFarlane 2006 80% of them in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa 2.4 billion people burn wood and manure as their main energy source.
- 7. Global Energy Distribution as indicated by nighttime electricity use
- 8. Worldwide (2010) United States 45% coal 20% gas 20% nuclear 10% hydroelectric oil hydro 5% other gas California New Mexico 20% coal 80% coal nuclear 40% gas 15% gas 13% nuclear 5% other coal 17% hydroelectric 10% other European Union 28% coal 20% gas 30% nuclear Others 10% hydroelectric 5% oil 7% other India 75% coal petroleum 2% nuclear 20% hydroelectric 3% other
- 9. US energy demand projection EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2012 and EPRI Electricity generation by fuel, 1990-2035 (TWh per year) (Image: EIA)
- 10. Energy Returned On Investment relative to 1 (similar to the value EROEI) 100 100 80 80 60 EROI 40 30 30 27 20 20 20 15 5 3 1950 2000 1930 2000 2000 2010 Coal Oil Gas Oil sands
- 11. Construction costs have skyrocketed for all alternative energy sources Manhattan Island = 59 miles2 36 miles2 124 miles2 Wind $11 cf = 30% $10 Solar 0.6 miles2 $10 b cf = 20% Billions of Dollars $9 Nuclear cf = 90% $9 b $8 $7 $8 b $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 2009 Construction Costs and Footprint to produce similar power installed capacity x capacity factor (cf) = 1200 MW average production
- 12. Smart Grid = Technology, Policy… Source: ISO New England
Notas do Editor
- This is the world energy consumption curve, and will determine the more important aspects of our economic, environmental and political future. The green line is the historic use up to the present and the red is the projected use based upon United Nations population estimates and Deutch and Moniz (2006) assumptions for per capita increases in both developed and developing countries . Global electricity use recently passed 15 trillion kilowatt-hours per year and is projected to double by 2040.
- If you look at the United Nations Human Development Index, which is an excellent indication of the quality of life that most humans aspire to, you can see most western countries are in the energy fat region, and we can certainly afford to conserve, buy compact fluorescence, hybrid cars, etc., so that we could drop back to where the British are which is pretty efficient overall. But there is not even a billion people in this energy fat zone. The other 5 billion are in the lower zone and they desire, and will get to, this zone, one way or another. And it will be primarily by using fossil fuel. That is what we have to change if we have any chance of reaching our goal of sustainability
- . The present world energy distribution falls into two categories - power and transportation - and looks like this. It is very dependent upon where you live. Transportation is almost completely petroleum-based. For power, the U.S. is basically 70% fossil fuel, 20% nuclear and a little bit of everything else. New Mexico, where we live, is almost all coal. New Jersey has the highest percentage of nuclear in the U.S., and California is the most diversified, but it also has the highest cost for electricity in the U.S. Europe is a little better - more nuclear (because of France) less coal and more hydroelectric.
- Another way to look at costs is the Energy Return on Energy Invested, or the traditional ratio of Energy Return on Investment, shown here. It is the ratio of energy invested to energy returned from that source and the larger the number the better the value, the closer to one the more it is of no use. It is no wonder that when fossil fuel came on the scene in the early 20th century the return was enormous, and our entire economy became fueled by fossil fuel, and our standard of living increased proportionately. Of course, this was the most easily recoverable deposits. [click] As time went on, it became more difficult to recover the material, took more energy and effort and the return was less. Developing the unconventional sources such as oil sands, coal liquification, and others drops the return even more. Ethanol production is the least effective of all and barely manages to exceed one. [click] Biodiesel is slightly more effective, and if oil-rich sources such as algae are used, or bio-engineering for cellulosics is successful, the return increases significantly, but never to the level of conventional fossil fuel. [click] Nuclear increases significantly after 1990 because of increases in efficiency and capacity, standardizing of designs, and increased design life. [click]