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OF SILVER LININGS & DARK CLOUDS
SILVER LINING 1: FALLING FORECLOSURES




©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution   2
U.S. FORECLOSURES AT 5-YEAR LOWS
CALIFORNIA FORECLOSURES DOWN


                                              October 2012 lowest
                                              October 2012 lowest
                                               monthly level since
                                               monthly level since
                                                  April 2007
                                                   April 2007




©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution                          4
DARK CLOUD: LATENT DISTRESS
      1.5 million U.S. properties in some stage of foreclosure

  REO inventory
   REO inventory
  represents 15-
   represents 15-
 month supply at
  month supply at
current REO sales
 current REO sales
       pace
        pace




5
DARK CLOUD: LATENT DISTRESS
    3.2 million U.S. delinquent mortgages




6
EVEN MORE POTENTIAL DISTRESS
                12.5 million mortgages seriously underwater




©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution                   7
MARKET READY FOR MORE




                                              “I need more homes to show my buyers. . .
                                               “I need more homes to show my buyers.
                                              As much as I Ihate to see people lose their
                                               As much as hate to see people lose their
                                                 homes in foreclosure, we need more
                                                  homes in foreclosure, we need more
                                                     inventory from some place.”
                                                      inventory from some place.”

                                               -Ben Richardson, Realtor, Roseville, CA
                                                -Ben Richardson, Realtor, Roseville, CA




©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution                                               8
SILVER LINING 2: FORECLOSURE SALES DOWN




 ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution   9
ABRUPT CHANGE OF COURSE


                                                California foreclosure
                                                 California foreclosure
                                              sales declined 10 percent
                                               sales declined 10 percent
                                                  after four straight
                                                   after four straight
                                                quarters of increases
                                                 quarters of increases




©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution                           10
DARK CLOUD: UPSTREAM DISPOSAL
                                                 While foreclosure
                                                 While foreclosure
                                               sales are down from
                                                sales are down from
                                                  aayear ago, no-
                                                     year ago, no-
                                                default short sales
                                                 default short sales
                                              increased 39 percent
                                               increased 39 percent
                                                      annually
                                                       annually




©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution                      11
SILVER LINING 3: RISING PRICES




©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution   12
PRICES RISING NATIONWIDE



      California foreclosure
       California foreclosure
        prices increased 44
         prices increased
       percent YOY, biggest
        percent YOY, biggest
     increase since Q2 2010
      increase since Q2 2010




                                First annual increase in
                                 First annual increase in
                                  average foreclosure
                                   average foreclosure
                                price since Q2 2010 and
                                 price since Q2 2010 and
                                 biggest increase since
                                  biggest increase since
                                         Q4 2006
                                          Q4 2006
PRICES RISING IN MOST CA METROS




©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution         14
DARK CLOUD: DELAYED SUPPLY




©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution    15
DARK CLOUD: DEFERRED DISTRESS



                      California foreclosure
                       California foreclosure
                        activity down 29
                         activity down 29
                             percent
                              percent




©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution       16
DARK CLOUD: DELAYED SUPPLY




©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution    17
FLIPPING: SCATTERED SHOWERS




                                              ••   Los Angeles up 61%
                                                    Los Angeles up 61%
                                              ••   Riverside up 38%
                                                    Riverside up 38%
                                              ••   Sacramento up 25%
                                                    Sacramento up 25%
                                              ••   San Francisco up 57%
                                                    San Francisco up 57%
                                              ••   San Diego up 20%
                                                    San Diego up 20%




©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution                                18
RESOURCES FOR RESEARCH


 • RealtyTrac Trend Center (Free)
   www.realtytrac.com/trendcenter

 • Data Licensing: licensing@realtytrac.com

 • Foreclosure News Report
   www.foreclosurenewsreport.com

 • Daren Blomquist, RealtyTrac Vice President
        – darenb@realtytrac.com


©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution     19

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UC Berkeley Real Estate Symposium Presentation: Of Silver Linings & Dark Clouds

  • 1. OF SILVER LININGS & DARK CLOUDS
  • 2. SILVER LINING 1: FALLING FORECLOSURES ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution 2
  • 3. U.S. FORECLOSURES AT 5-YEAR LOWS
  • 4. CALIFORNIA FORECLOSURES DOWN October 2012 lowest October 2012 lowest monthly level since monthly level since April 2007 April 2007 ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution 4
  • 5. DARK CLOUD: LATENT DISTRESS 1.5 million U.S. properties in some stage of foreclosure REO inventory REO inventory represents 15- represents 15- month supply at month supply at current REO sales current REO sales pace pace 5
  • 6. DARK CLOUD: LATENT DISTRESS 3.2 million U.S. delinquent mortgages 6
  • 7. EVEN MORE POTENTIAL DISTRESS 12.5 million mortgages seriously underwater ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution 7
  • 8. MARKET READY FOR MORE “I need more homes to show my buyers. . . “I need more homes to show my buyers. As much as I Ihate to see people lose their As much as hate to see people lose their homes in foreclosure, we need more homes in foreclosure, we need more inventory from some place.” inventory from some place.” -Ben Richardson, Realtor, Roseville, CA -Ben Richardson, Realtor, Roseville, CA ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution 8
  • 9. SILVER LINING 2: FORECLOSURE SALES DOWN ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution 9
  • 10. ABRUPT CHANGE OF COURSE California foreclosure California foreclosure sales declined 10 percent sales declined 10 percent after four straight after four straight quarters of increases quarters of increases ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution 10
  • 11. DARK CLOUD: UPSTREAM DISPOSAL While foreclosure While foreclosure sales are down from sales are down from aayear ago, no- year ago, no- default short sales default short sales increased 39 percent increased 39 percent annually annually ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution 11
  • 12. SILVER LINING 3: RISING PRICES ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution 12
  • 13. PRICES RISING NATIONWIDE California foreclosure California foreclosure prices increased 44 prices increased percent YOY, biggest percent YOY, biggest increase since Q2 2010 increase since Q2 2010 First annual increase in First annual increase in average foreclosure average foreclosure price since Q2 2010 and price since Q2 2010 and biggest increase since biggest increase since Q4 2006 Q4 2006
  • 14. PRICES RISING IN MOST CA METROS ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution 14
  • 15. DARK CLOUD: DELAYED SUPPLY ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution 15
  • 16. DARK CLOUD: DEFERRED DISTRESS California foreclosure California foreclosure activity down 29 activity down 29 percent percent ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution 16
  • 17. DARK CLOUD: DELAYED SUPPLY ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution 17
  • 18. FLIPPING: SCATTERED SHOWERS •• Los Angeles up 61% Los Angeles up 61% •• Riverside up 38% Riverside up 38% •• Sacramento up 25% Sacramento up 25% •• San Francisco up 57% San Francisco up 57% •• San Diego up 20% San Diego up 20% ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution 18
  • 19. RESOURCES FOR RESEARCH • RealtyTrac Trend Center (Free) www.realtytrac.com/trendcenter • Data Licensing: licensing@realtytrac.com • Foreclosure News Report www.foreclosurenewsreport.com • Daren Blomquist, RealtyTrac Vice President – darenb@realtytrac.com ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2012, Not for Distribution 19

Notas do Editor

  1. September 2012 foreclosure activity was 47 percent below the peak year of 2009 and 18 percent below 2007 levels, the first year we started to see elevated levels of foreclosure activity nationwide.
  2. Foreclosure Inventory down 32 percent from peak of 2.2 million in December 2010, but still stubbornly high. We estimate only 15 percent of REO properties nationwide are listed for sale, frustrating real estate agents with ready, willing and able buyers. In California, we’re estimating only 11 percent of the unsold REO inventory is listed for sale. Although in California, REO inventory is down to about 70,000 as of the end of October, down 50 percent from the approximately 140,000 in October 2010, when the robo-signing controversy came to light.
  3. In places like Merced, Sacramento and Stockton, the underwater percentage is 40 to 50 percent of all mortgages, but in San Francisco County it’s only 10 percent.
  4. The second quarter annual decrease in foreclosure-related sales was the first annual decrease after five consecutive quarters of increases.
  5. On track for more than 1.1 million short sales, both those in foreclosure and those prior to foreclosure start, in 2012. That compares to about 625,000 completed foreclosures for the year. Also consider sales of non-performing loans at a discount, which could delay another round of eventual foreclosures.
  6. Flippers are eating up the distressed inventory at low prices, fixing it up to better condition and either flipping to another investor who then rents the home or to an owner-occupant who lives there. Flippers are filling an important need in the distressed property-heavy housing market, but there is risk that the flipping frenzy may be creating some mini price bubbles in some markets.