Northern Ireland Labour Market Update Issued 14th December 2012 Richard Ramsey Ulster Bank Chief Economist Northern Ireland richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com

1. Northern Ireland Labour Market
Update
Issued 14th December 2012
Richard Ramsey
Chief Economist Northern Ireland
richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com

2. Workforce Jobs
Employee Jobs + Government Supported
Trainees + Self-employed

3. 54,700 fewer workforce jobs in June 2012 relative to
June 2008 – a fall of 6.4% (only updated annually)
NI Workforce in Employment Jobs
(Employee Jobs + Self Employment + Govt supported trainees)
900,000
Source: DFP, jobs in June of each year 858.1k
850,000
803.4k
800,000
750,000
700,000
650,000
600,000
550,000
500,000
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

4. 13,500 fewer self-employed jobs in June 2012 relative to
June 2008 – a fall of 11% (only updated annually in Sept)
NI Self-Employment Jobs
150,000
Source: DFP, jobs in June of each year
140,000
130,000
122.1k 108.6k
120,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

5. NI has not experienced the jobs recovery that has
occurred within the UK (only updated annually in September)
Y/Y NI & UK Workforce Jobs Annual % Growth
6%
NI UK
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
Source: DFP & NOMIS, jobs in June of each year
-6%
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

6. UK workforce jobs are just 0.5% below their June 2008
peak whereas NI has not recouped any of its job losses
NI & UK Workforce Jobs (as of June 2012)
3%
Source: DFP & NOMIS, June annual figures
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
-6%
NI UK
-7%
June 2008 Peak to Trough Recovery from Trough Net Position Relative to
June 2008 Peak

7. Quarterly Employment Survey
(QES)
QES is an employer survey (@ 5,500 companies) that
measures the actual number of jobs (employees in
employment) as opposed to the number of individuals in
employment (as in the Labour Force Survey). The QES
excludes the self-employed but is the preferred measure of
employment within Northern Ireland

8. Summary Table – Quarterly Employment Survey
Northern Ireland Employees Jobs (Seasonally Adjusted)
Construction Services Manufacturing Total
2007 Q1 43,460 567,150 83,850 715,510
Q2 44,710 571,050 84,100 720,750
Q3 45,320 575,090 83,960 725,440
Q4 46,820 578,950 83,440 729,380
2008 Q1 45,860 582,910 83,710 732,620
Q2 44,860 584,430 83,390 733,050
Q3 43,500 581,240 82,260 727,440
Q4 41,670 579,670 80,080 721,460
2009 Q1 39,420 577,660 78,180 715,220
Q2 38,210 576,980 75,340 710,440
Q3 36,780 577,460 74,070 708,110
↑ Old Series ↑
DISCONTINUITY IN DATA SERIES DISCONTINUITY IN DATA SERIES
↓ New Series ↓ ↓ New Series ↓
Q4 37,120 581,210 73,280 711,430
2010 Q1 36,960 579,640 73,070 709,510
Q2 36,200 578,950 73,090 707,870
Q3 35,790 576,290 73,010 704,890
Q4 33,610 573,890 73,790 701,120
2011 Q1 33,370 573,040 73,590 699,840
Q2 32,780 570,620
, 73,510 697,180
Q3 32,930 569,150 73,850 695,930
Q4 31,640 565,050 75,420 691,900
2012 Q1 31,460 564,910 74,680 690,850
Q2 31,320 565,590 75,360 692,190
Q3 31,010 566,220 75,360 692,460
Latest Quarter Q/Q % Change ‐1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Latest Quarter Y/Y % Change ‐5.8% ‐0.5% 2.0% ‐0.5%
Fall from peak ‐ Nos* ‐15,810 ‐18,210 ‐8,740 ‐40,590
Fall from peak % Change* ‐33.8% ‐3.1% ‐10.4% ‐5.5%
Source: DFP, **Peak to trough fall does not strictly use comparable data and is indicative only

9. NI posts second quarterly rise since Q2 2008 in Q3 2012
(Q4 2009 represents start of new series & therefore not a Q/Q rise)
Nos
NI Employee Jobs Quarterly Change
Excludes self-employed
6000
Discontinuity in Series
4000
2000 20,580
1,340
24,940
270
0
-2000
-4000
-6000
Source: DFP
-8000
Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012

10. Current employment levels back at late 2004 levels
Northern Ireland Employee Jobs
750,000 733,050
692,460
700,000
Discontinuity in Series
650,000
613,250
600,000 Q2 1998
550,000
Source: DFP
500,000
Q1 1993 Q3 1995 Q1 1998 Q3 2000 Q1 2003 Q3 2005 Q1 2008 Q1 2010 Q3 2012

11. Service sector: 2 successive quarters of modest growth
NI Services Employee Jobs Quarterly Change
Nos Excludes self-employed
6,000
Discontinuity in Series
4,000
2,000
-7,450 -16,300 680 630
0
-2,000
-4,000
-6,000
Source: DFP
-8,000
Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012

12. Service sector employment is back to late 2006 /
early 2007 levels
Northern Ireland Services Employee Jobs
625,000
584,430
575,000 566,220
Discontinuity in
Series
525,000
475,000
Q2 1998
454,990
425,000
Source: DFP
375,000
Q1 1993 Q1 1997 Q1 2001 Q1 2005 Q1 2009 Q3 2012

13. Manufacturing employment unchanged in Q3
NI Manufacturing Employee Jobs
Quarterly Change (Excludes self-employed)
Nos
2,000
1,500
Discontinuity in Series
1,000
500 -9,640
0
-500
-1,000
-1,500
-2,000
-2,500
Source: DFP
-3,000
Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012

14. Recent manufacturing employment gains are within a
longer-term trend of job losses
NI Manufacturing Employee Jobs Levels
120,000
104,940 (Q3 1998 just
110,000 after GFA)
100,000
84,100
90,000 Q2 2007
80,000
75,360
70,000
Discontinuity in Series
60,000
Source: DFP
50,000
Q1 1993 Q3 1995 Q1 1998 Q3 2000 Q1 2003 Q3 2005 Q1 2008 Q1 2010 Q3 2012

15. Construction sector has witnessed employment
declines in 17 of the last 18 quarters
NI Construction Employee Jobs
Nos Quarterly Change (Excludes self-employed)
2,000
1,500
Discontinuity in Series
1,000
-6,110
500 -10,040
0
-500
-1,000
-1,500
-2,000
Source: DFP
-2,500
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012

16. Construction employment back to 1999 levels
NI Construction Employee Jobs Levels
50,000
46,820
45,000
40,000
35,000
Discontinuity
in Series
30,000 31,010
Back to
1999 levels
25,000
Source: DFP, QES
20,000
Q1 1993 Q3 1995 Q1 1998 Q3 2000 Q1 2003 Q3 2005 Q1 2008 Q1 2010 Q3 2012

17. Northern Ireland’s
Job losses, recovery and
current (net) position
2007/08-2012

18. No meaningful jobs recovery outside of manufacturing
Northern Ireland Employment
(Employee Jobs)
10%
Peak to Trough Recovery from Trough Q3 2012 Relative to Peak
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Source: DFP, QES
-40%
All Sectors Services Manufacturing Construction

19. Utilities post largest annual % gain with manufacturing the
largest numerical gain
Northern Ireland Employment Change (Ranked by % change)
September 2011 ‐ September 2012
Broad Industrial Group Net Job Change % Change
Utilities, Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply 140 10.9%
manufacturing Arts, entertainment & recreation 1,250 9.0% Utilities,
& tourism Administrative & support service activities 1,160 2.8% manufacturing
related sectors
Professional, scientific & technical activities 1,120 2.8% & tourism
Manufacturing 1,490 2.0%
related sectors
Accomodation & food service activities 360 0.9%
Real estate activities 60 0.8%
Transport & storage 10 0.0%
Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles ‐330 ‐0.3%
Agriculture, forestry & fishing ‐120 ‐1.0%
Other service activities ‐150 ‐1.1%
Education ‐940 ‐1.4%
Human health & social work activities ‐1,930 ‐1.6%
Information & communication ‐280 ‐1.7%
Public administration & defence; social security ‐960 ‐1.7%
Construction / Mining & quarrying ‐30 ‐1.8%
Construction /
property Water supply, sewerage, waste management ‐120 ‐2.5% property
related Construction ‐1,920 ‐5.8% related
Financial & insurance activities ‐1,610 ‐7.9%
Total ‐3,290 ‐0.5%
Source: DFP ‐ Quarterly Employment Survey (Seasonally Unadjusted), Excludes self‐employed

20. Property related sectors & manufacturing have seen the
biggest job losses over the last 4 years
Northern Ireland Employment Change (Ranked by % change)
September 2008 ‐ September 2012
Broad Industrial Group Net Job Change % Change
Utilities Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply 230 19.3%
Real estate activities 730 11.2%
Utilities
Arts, entertainment & recreation 1,360 9.8%
Human health & social work activities 590 0.5%
Other service activities 30 0.2%
Education ‐250 ‐0.4%
Agriculture, forestry & fishing ‐150 ‐1.2%
Professional, scientific & technical activities ‐400 ‐1.7%
Information & communication ‐280 ‐1.7%
Water supply, sewerage, waste management ‐180 ‐3.7%
Administrative & support service activities ‐1,610 ‐3.7%
Accommodation & food service activities ‐1,980 ‐4.5%
Public administration & defence; social security ‐2,640 ‐4.5%
Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles ‐6,940 ‐5.4%
Transport & storage ‐1,390 ‐5.4%
Construction / Financial & insurance activities ‐1,360 ‐6.8%
Construction /
property Manufacturing ‐7,060 ‐8.6% property
related Mining & quarrying ‐470 ‐22.0% related
Construction ‐12,490 ‐28.7%
Total ‐34,260 ‐4.7%
Source: DFP ‐ Quarterly Employment Survey (Seasonally Unadjusted), Excludes self‐employed

21. Northern Ireland’s
‘Employment Recessions’
& Recoveries Compared
1980s
1990s
2008-2012

22. Longest period of job losses but not as deep as the 1980s. But
returning to peak is likely to take longer than 1980s (10yrs)
NI Employee Jobs Recessions / Recoveries
Index
Pre-Recession Peaks Indexed = 100 1990s
125 10yrs after peak
1980s 1990s 2008-2012 employment rose by 19%
120
115
In 1990 UK recession, NI employment
110 fell slightly & troughed 2 years after the
pre-recession peak 1980s
105 2008-2012
10yrs after downturn
employment returns to peak
15 quarters of decline before rise in 16th
100 quarter.17 quarters after 2008 Q2 peak NI
jobs have fallen by 5.5% as of Q3 2012 Q2
95
90
Employment troughed (-7.5%)13 quarters
85 after 1979 Q4 peak & was 7.0% below peak
after 17 quarters Source: DFP & UB Calculations
80
Peak 1 year 2yrs 3yrs 4yrs 5yrs 6yrs 7yrs 8yrs 9yrs 10yrs
Time Since Pre-Recession Peak

23. Manufacturing job losses have been nowhere near what
they were like in the 1980s but recovery may be similar
NI Manufacturing Recessions & Recoveries in
Index Employee Jobs (Pre-Recession Peaks Indexed = 100)
105
1980s 1990s 2007-2012
100
95 2.3% below Q3 1990 peak
after 21 quarters
90
10.4% decline 21 quarters
after Q2 2007 peak
85
21 quarters after Q2 1979
peak employment was 26%
80 lower
75
70
Source: DFP & UB Calculations
65
Peak 1 year 2yrs 3yrs 4yrs 5yrs 6yrs 7yrs 8yrs 9yrs 10yrs
Time Since Pre-Recession Peak

24. Construction is experiencing the fastest & deepest recession
in terms of job losses. A 1980s-style recovery is expected
NI Construction Recessions & Recoveries Compared
Index (Employee Jobs Pre-Recession Peaks Indexed = 100)
130
1980s 1990s 2007- 2012 Peak 1990 Q3
120
Current recession has seen construction employment
110 fall by one third in 4 years. In the 1980s it took over 7
years to for employment to fall by a similar margin
100
90
80
Peak 1979 Q2
70
Source: DFP & UB calculations 2007Q4 - 2012 Q3
60
Peak 1 year 2yrs 3yrs 4yrs 5yrs 6yrs 7yrs 8yrs 9yrs 10yrs
Time Since Pre-Recession Peak

25. Service sector is experiencing its longest & deepest
recession. Unfortunately recovery will be weaker than 1980s
NI Service Sector Recoveries in Employee Jobs
Index
Pre-Recession Peaks Indexed = 100
130
1980s 1990s 2008-2012
125 +27% rise
in 10yrs
120
1990s: NI lacked a developed private
115 services sector which explains lack of job
losses in early 1990s UK recession +15% rise
110 in 10 years
105
1980s: 17 quarters after employment peak
100 service sector employment was almost 3%
Peak 2008 Q1 above pre-recession peak
95
90 Current recession is the longest and deepest
recession to date. 17 quarters on employment still
85 3.1% below peak Source: DFP & UB Calculations
80
Peak 1 year 2yrs 3yrs 4yrs 5yrs 6yrs 7yrs 8yrs 9yrs 10yrs
Time Since Pre-Recession Peak

26. NI Public Sector v Private Sector
Employment Levels
& Growth

27. Headline public & private sector growth rates are misleading
due to reclassification of some institutions as public sector
NI Public v Private Sector Employment Growth
Public Private
6%
Job gains exaggerated as @5k
jobs in financial institutions
reclassified as public sector
4%
2%
0%
-2%
Job losses exaggerated as @5k
-4% jobs in financial institutions moved
Source: DFP from private to public sector
-6%
Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
1994 1996 1997 1999 2000 2002 2003 2005 2006 2008 2009 2011 2012

28. Adjusting for the movement from private to public sector
presents a slightly different picture
NI Public v Private Sector Employment Growth
6%
Public* (excluding financial institutions)
Private (incl. part-nationalised institutions)
4%
2%
0% 6
-2%
-4%
Source: DFP, * Ulster Bank estimates
-6%
Q3 1994 Q3 1997 Q3 2000 Q3 2003 Q3 2006 Q3 2009 Q3 2012

29. Private sector employment has stabilised.. But will it last?
NI Private Sector Employee Jobs
550,000
Source: DFP & UB estimates
525,000 515,000
500,000
482,900
475,000
Good Friday 478,900
Agreement
450,000 Signed April 1998
418,170 Q2 1998
425,000
400,000
Private Sector Unadjusted for Financial Institutions reclassification
375,000 Private Sector Adjusted (incl. part-nationalised institutions)
350,000
Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

30. Public sector employment boom has been & gone. A
sustained period of job losses is anticipated going forward
NI Public Sector Employee Jobs Levels
230,000 Pre-recession peak
Source: DFP, * UB estimates Q4 2005
221,050
220,000
213,480
210,000 Good Friday Agreement
Signed April 1998 209,480
195,120 Q2 98 +26,000 jobs
(13%) in 7yrs Public sector employment
boosted by @5k in Q4 2008 as
post GFA
part-nationalised financial
200,000 institutions reclassified as
public sector. Public sector
jobs (excl. financial institutions)
now estimated at @209.5k or
Q4 2002 levels.
190,000
Public Unadjusted Public Adjusted* (excl. financial institutions)
180,000
Q3 1994 Q3 1997 Q3 2000 Q3 2003 Q3 2006 Q3 2009 Q3 2012

31. Private sector employment has fallen by an estimated
6.2% since peak with public sector down around 4.1%
NI Public & Private Sector Employment % Change
Q2 2008 - Q3 2012
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
-6%
-7%
-8%
-9%
Source: DFP & *UB Estimates
-10%
Headline Public Headline Private Public Sector* Private Sector* (incl.
Sector Sector (excl.part-nationalised part-nationalised
financial institutions) financial institutions)

32. NI V UK
Employment Performance
Employee Jobs

33. The UK posts growth in 3 of the last 4 quarters
NI v UK Quarterly Employment Growth
Q/Q (Employee Jobs)
1.5%
NI UK
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
Source: DFP & NOMIS
-1.0%
Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012

34. NI has not posted year-on-year employment growth
since Q3 2008
Y/Y
All Employees Annual Employment Growth
4% NI/UK Divergence with
NI UK
employment recovery
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
NI outperformed
-2% the UK in the early
1990s but not now
-3%
Source: DFP & NOMIS
-4%
Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3
1982 1986 1990 1993 1997 2001 2005 2008 2012

35. Employment growth has been lacking in both NI & the
UK construction sectors
NI v UK Construction Employment Growth Q/Q
Q/Q (Employee Jobs)
4.0%
NI UK
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
Source: DFP & NOMIS
-8.0%
Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012

36. NI’s construction sector experienced sharper rises and
falls relative to the UK
Construction Annual Employment Growth
Employee Jobs
30%
NI UK
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
NI outperformed
-10% the UK in the early
1990s but not now
-15%
Source: DFP & NOMIS
-20%
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
1983 1986 1989 1993 1996 1999 2002 2006 2009 2012

37. Both NI & UK manufacturing employment growth flat in Q3
NI v UK Manufacturing Employment Growth Q/Q
Q/Q (Employee Jobs)
3%
NI UK
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
Source: DFP & NOMIS
-6%
Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012

38. NI experienced a shallower employment recession in the
1980s relative to the UK. History has not repeated itself
Y/Y
NI & UK Manufacturing Annual Employment Growth
4%
NI UK
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8% NI outperformed the
UK in the early 1990s
but not in 2009
-10%
Source: DFP & NOMIS
-12%
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
1983 1986 1989 1993 1996 1999 2002 2006 2009 2012

39. UK service sector has posted employment gains in 4
of the last 6 quarters, NI has managed just 2 quarters
NI v UK Services Quarterly Employment Growth
Q/Q (Employee Jobs)
1.5%
NI UK
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
-1.0%
Source: DFP & NOMIS
-1.5%
Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012

40. NI’s service sector diverged from the UK in the 1990s
UK recession & is diverging in the current one too
Y/Y
Service Sector Annual Employment Growth
5%
NI UK
NI/UK Divergence with
4% employment recovery
3%
2%
1%
0%
NI outperformed
-1% the UK in the early
1990s but not now
-2%
Source: DFP & NOMIS
-3%
Q2 1983 Q3 1990 Q4 1997 Q1 2005 Q2 2012

41. Apart from manufacturing, NI’s job losses have been
more severe than in the UK
Employee Jobs Q3 2012 relative to recent peaks
0%
-5%
NI Peak Q2 2008 NI Peak Q2 2008
-10%
-15%
NI Peak Q2 2007
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
NI Peak Q4 2007
NI UK Source: DFP & NOMIS
-40%
Construction Manufacturing Services Total

42. NI & UK Employee Jobs
Full-Time & Part-Time

43. Employment boom was predominantly part-time jobs
while employment gloom is largely full-time
NI Annual Employment Growth
Y/Y Full-Time & Part-Time Employee Jobs
10%
Full-Time Part-Time Total
8%
Part-time employment growing at a much
faster rate than full-time employment
6%
4%
2%
0%
Full-time employment falling at a much
-2% faster rate than part-time
-4%
-6%
Sep-94 Sep-96 Sep-98 Sep-00 Sep-02 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12

44. More than twice as many full-time jobs lost as part-time
NI Employee Jobs Q3 2012 relative to recent peaks
0%
-5% -3.5%
-7.2%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
Full-Time Part-Time
-40%
Manufacturing Construction Services Total*

45. …leading to a change in NI’s employment mix
% of NI Employee Jobs Full-Time v Part-Time
75%
Full-Time Part-Time
65%
Full-time employment's share of total employment is falling
55%
45%
Part-time employment's share of total employment is rising
35%
Source: DFP
25%
Sep-94 Sep-97 Sep-00 Sep-03 Sep-06 Sep-09 Sep-12

46. NI outperformed the UK in the boom but is
underperforming in the recovery
Y/Y
NI & UK Full-Time Annual Employment Growth
Employee Jobs
6%
UK NI
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
Sep-94 Sep-96 Sep-98 Sep-00 Sep-02 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12

47. NI’s full-time employment back to 2004 levels
NI Full-time & Part-time Employee Jobs
Index Indexed Q1 1998 = 100
140
FT PT
130
120
110
NI full-time employment
100 back to 2004 levels
90
80
Sep-98 Sep-00 Sep-02 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12

48. NI lags the UK in part-time employment growth too
Y/Y NI & UK Part-Time Annual Employment Growth
Employee Jobs
12%
UK NI
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
Sep-94 Sep-96 Sep-98 Sep-00 Sep-02 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12

49. Ulster Bank Northern Ireland
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
November 2012 Survey Update
Issued 10th December 2012
Richard Ramsey
Chief Economist Northern Ireland
richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com

50. PMI Surveys
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies
which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy
by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different
sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an
improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to
100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above
50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or
deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change
(expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration
expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3‐month moving averages have been used to
more accurately identify the broad trends.

51. Northern Ireland’s rate of decline in employment levels
eases sharply in November
Private Sector Employment Levels
Monthly
60
NI UK RoI
Job Gains
55
50
Job Losses
45
40
35
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
30
Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12

52. … all NI sectors post employment declines over last 3
months although manufacturing posts growth in November
NI PMI - Employment Index
3 month moving average
65
Manufacturing Services Construction
Job Gains
60
55
50
45
Job Losses
40
35
30
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
25
Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12

53. After the North West, Northern Ireland posts the
steepest decline in employment over the last month …
Employment Levels
November 2012
PMI Index
54 50 = No change
Increasing
51.8
52
50
49.4
48
47.9
Decreasing
46
44
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
42
Y&H EM SE SW Scot East NE WM Wal UK Lon NI NW RoI

54. …and steepest decline over the last 3 months…
Employment Levels
PMI index Last 3 months to November 2012
54
50 = No change
Increasing
51.9
52
50
49
48
Decreasing
46 46.4
44
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
42
EM WM Y&H Scot SE UK East Wal SW NW NE Lon NI RoI

55. …and over the last 12 months
Employment Levels
Last 12 Months to November 2012
PMI index
56 50 = No change
Increasing
54
52
50.6
50
49.9
Decreasing
48
46.9
46
44
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
42
EM WM Y&H SE Scot East UK SW NE NW Wal Lon NI RoI

56. Northern Ireland Quarterly
Employment Survey (QES)
V
Markit Economics / Ulster
Bank PMI

57. PMI has been a reliable indicator of employment trends
PMI Index NI Employment: PMI (up to Nov-12) v QES* Q/Q
60 1.0%
*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the
number of jobs in NI & includes the public sector 0.8%
55 Job 0.5%
gains
0.3%
Discontinuity in QES Series
50 0.0%
-0.3%
45 -0.5%
Job
losses
-0.8%
40 -1.0%
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI
Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / -1.3%
contraction,PMI 3mth averages
35 -1.5%
Dec-03 Jun-05 Dec-06 Jun-08 Dec-09 Jun-11 Dec-12
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q

58. Services PMI more negative in Q2 & Q3 than QES.
Q4 PMI signals further job losses albeit marginal
PMI Index
NI Services Employment: PMI (up to Nov-12) v QES* Q/Q
65 1.5%
*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number
of jobs in NI and includes the public sector
60 1.0%
Discontinuity in QES Series
55 0.5%
Job
gains
50 0.0%
45 -0.5%
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI
Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion /
contraction,PMI 3mth averages Job losses
40 -1.0%
Dec-03 Jun-05 Dec-06 Jun-08 Dec-09 Jun-11 Dec-12
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q

59. Manufacturing PMI suggested employment levels stabilised in Q3
PMI Index
NI Manufacturing Employment: PMI (Nov-12) v QES* Q/Q
65 4%
*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment
Survey of the number of jobs in NI firms 3%
60 Discontinuity in
QES Series Job
gains 2%
55
1%
50 0%
45 -1%
Job
losses -2%
40
-3%
35 Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI
Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / -4%
contraction,PMI 3mth averages
30 -5%
Dec-03 Jun-05 Dec-06 Jun-08 Dec-09 Jun-11 Dec-12
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Slide 59

60. The PMI & official QES numbers have pointed to job losses
throughout downturn. PMI suggests further job losses in Q4
PMI Index
NI Construction Employment: PMI (to Nov-12) v QES Q/Q
65 5.0%
*QES is NI's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the no. of jobs in NI firms
60
Job 2.5%
55 gains
Discontinuity in QES Series
50 0.0%
45
-2.5%
40
35 -5.0%
30
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Job losses -7.5%
25 Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion /
contraction,PMI 3mth averages
20 -10.0%
Dec-03 Jun-05 Dec-06 Jun-08 Dec-09 Jun-11 Dec-12
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Slide 60

61. Unemployment

62. NI dole queue still lengthening on a monthly basis
NI unemployment still pushing higher
M/M Claimant Count Monthly Change
4,000
Nov
2008
+3,200
3,000
Nov
2,000 2012
+500
1,000
0
Source: DFP
-1,000
Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12
Slide 62

63. …the overall dole queue is now at 64,700
NI Unemployment Claimant Count Levels
140,000
120,000 Nov 2012
64,700 highest levels
since April 1997
100,000
80,000
60,000
Good Friday
40,000 Agreement signed
April 1998
57,900 Record low
20,000
Aug 07
Source: DFP 23,500
0
Nov-85 Nov-88 Nov-91 Nov-94 Nov-97 Nov-00 Nov-03 Nov-06 Nov-09 Nov-12
Slide 63

64. No jobs for the boys? It’s been a ‘Mancession’
NI 12 Monthly Change in Claimant Count
25,000
Male Female
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Source: DFP, ONS
-5,000
Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12
Slide 64

65. Rise in male unemployment accelerating again
NI Claimant Count by Gender
100,000
Male Female
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
Source: ONS, NOMIS
0
Nov-72 Nov-77 Nov-82 Nov-87 Nov-92 Nov-97 Nov-02 Nov-07 Nov-12
Slide 65

66. Unemployment a major problem within the <25s
Youth unemployment falls for last 3 three months
Claimant Count Monthly Change
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500
-1,000
Source: DFP
-1,500
Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12
Slide 66

67. No. of under 25s claiming the dole is 1/3rd above GFA levels
NI Youth Claimant Count Levels
<25 years of age
25,000 GFA
April 1998 19,551
14,145 Highest level 17,876
since October
20,000 1996
15,000
Nov 07 low
7,050
10,000
5,000
Source: DFP
0
Nov-96 Nov-98 Nov-00 Nov-02 Nov-04 Nov-06 Nov-08 Nov-10 Nov-12
Slide 67

68. Not all sun, sea and sangria for NI’s Club 18-34:
the first-time buyers of today and tomorrow
NI Unemployment by Age
40,000 <25yrs of Age 25-34 Yrs of Age
30,000
House
20,000 price peak
10,000
Source: ONS, Claimant Count
0
Jan-07 Nov-07 Sep-08 Jul-09 May-10 Mar-11 Jan-12 Nov-12
Slide 68

69. Rise in claimant count across all occupation types
Claimant Count Levels & Growth by Occupation ( Ranked by % Growth)
November 2012 Increase in Numbers
Occupation % Change
Levels Nov 2007 ‐ Nov 2012
Sales & Customer Service Occupations 10,720 8,015 296%
Personal Service Occupations 4,715 3,370 251%
Skilled Trades Occupations 12,030 8,150 210%
Associate Professional & Technical Occupations 3,290 2,180 196%
Managers & Senior Officials 735 1,120 191%
Process, Plant & Machine Operatives 8,135 5,255 182%
Administrative & Secretarial Occupations 4,720 2,940 165%
Professional Occupations 1,865 1,100 144%
Elementary Occupations 16,290 8,930 121%
Source: ONS, refers to occupation sought by claimants
Slide 69

70. NI-UK Unemployment Differential is returning where it was
before the NICE Decade
NI-UK unemployment rate differential widening
%
8
NI UK 7.1%
7 2.3 pp
May 1999
6 2.4 pp
5
4.8%
4
3
2
1
Source: ONS / DFP Claimant Count
0
Nov-98 Nov-00 Nov-02 Nov-04 Nov-06 Nov-08 Nov-10 Nov-12
Slide 70

71. NI has the second highest unemployment rate using the
claimant count
Claimant Count Unemployment by UK Region
% November 2012
9 Source: DFP & ONS, % of Workforce
8 7.8
7.1
7
6
4.9
5
4
3
2
SE SW East Lon EM UK Scot Wal NW WM Y&H NI NE
Slide 71

72. NI’s unemployment rate in line with the UK’s (although we view NI ILO
figure flatters true NI position) but remains well below that of the RoI
UK, NI & RoI Unemployment Rates
Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey & CSO Live Register
15%
NI UK RoI
13%
11%
NI & UK
9% 7.8%
7%
5%
3%
Oct-96 Oct-98 Oct-00 Oct-02 Oct-04 Oct-06 Oct-08 Oct-10 Oct-12
Slide 72

73. … but only 4 regions have a lower rate using the ILO
unemployment rate
Rate ILO Unemployment Rate
August - October 2012
12%
10% 9.5%
7.8% 7.8%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
SW SE East Scot UK NI Wal EM NW WM Y&H Lon NE
Slide 73

74. And the employment rate is the lowest in the UK
Employment
Rate
ILO Employment Rate (16-64yr olds)
August - October 2012
80
75
71.2
70
67.5
65
60
NI NE Lon Wal NW WM Scot EM Y&H UK SE SW East
Slide 74

75. NI’s economic inactivity rate remains the highest within the UK
Rate % ILO Economic Inactivity Rate Rate (16-64yr olds)
August - October 2012
30
26.7
25
22.6
20
15
East SE SW EM Y&H UK WM Scot Lon NW Wal NE NI
Slide 75

76. Disclaimer
This document is intended for clients of Ulster Bank Limited and Ulster Bank Ireland Limited (together and separately, "Ulster Bank") and is
not intended for any other person. It does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell any instrument or to provide any service in
any jurisdiction where the required authorisation is not held. Ulster Bank and/or its associates and/or its employees may have a position or
engage in transactions in any of the instruments mentioned.
The information including any opinions expressed and the pricing given, is indicative, and constitute our judgement at time of publication and
are subject to change without notice. The information contained herein should not be construed as advice, and is not intended to be
construed as such.
This publication provides only a brief review of the complex issues discussed and recipients should not rely on information contained here
without seeking specific advice on matters that concern them. Ulster Bank make no representations or warranties with respect to the
information and disclaim all liability for use the recipient or their advisors make of the information.
Over-the-counter (OTC) derivates can involve a number of significant and complex risks which are dependent on the terms of the particular
transaction and your circumstances. In the event the market has moved against the transaction you have undertaken, you may incur
substantial costs if you wish to close out your position.
Calls may be recorded.
Slide 76