This week shows a shocker in Pakistan with a new Prime Minister at the behest of the Supreme Court in what may be round one of the ongoing political battle, stasis in Nepal and hopes of revival of economy in India with a change in the finance minister in the offing.

1. SOUTH ASIA WEEKLY TRENDS
WEEK ENDING 24 JUNE 2012
www.security-risks.com

2. Afghanistan
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Violence levels increase • New Delhi to host Afghan
with a number of Taliban private sector funding meet
attacks. Kabul lakeside hotel on 28 June.
strike in particular leads to • Continued violence due to
22 deaths. summer campaigning
• Sar I Pul oil and gas season.
exploration begins, Dostum
seen as possible spoiler.
www.security-risks.com

3. Bangladesh
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Respite in Rohingya refugee • Possible reaction of RMG
flow. workers agitations.
• RMG workers seek
reopening of factories,
unrest.
www.security-risks.com

4. Bhutan
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Bhutan China Prime • Bhutan seeking expansion
Minister meet at Rio. of foreign policy, diplomacy,
Bhutan likely to have sought boundary resolution with
support for UNSC seat China?
amongst other issues. • Rupee situation likely to
ease.
www.security-risks.com

5. Maldives
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Former President Gayoom’s • Sustained Trend - Political
increasing influence as differences to remain
President Waheed contested.
consolidates position
supported by Gayoom.
www.security-risks.com

6. Myanmar
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Suu Kyi’s foreign trip raises • Suu Kyi foreign visits during
concern of parallel and the month to raise
competing power structures controversies.
emerging in Myanmar
leading to a possible clash in • Communal situation will
the future remain sensitive in Rakhine
• Second wave of reforms province though likely to
announced by President taper off shortly.
• Rakhine Rohingya crisis
continues with more
deaths.
www.security-risks.com

7. Nepal
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• UCPN Maoist splits but hard • Efforts to build political
line Baidya faction not to consensus likely to gain
leave the political path. some momentum.
• Bhattarai resignation key to • Integration of PLA with
next step for reconciliation. Nepal Army to commence.
• India enhances border
security.
www.security-risks.com

8. Pakistan
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Week of high political drama • Tensions in government –
as Yousaf Raza Gilani
disqualified as PM by SC. Raja judiciary relations likely to
Pervez Ashraf elected as Prime persist.
Minister of Pakistan.
• Analysts say first round to
Supreme Court await response
from PPP, holding Malik Riaz
allegations against son of Chief
Justice of Pakistan as possible
trump card.
• NATO supply route opening
delayed.
www.security-risks.com

9. Sri Lanka
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Indian Prime Minister - Sri • Indian National Security
Lankan President bilateral Adviser to visit Sri Lanka.
meet in Rio. India seeks • Continued contestations on
early political initiative to mechanisms for resolution
resolve Tamil ethnic issue. of ethnic differences.
• Sri Lanka highlights progress
on LLRC recommendations
at Geneva.
www.security-risks.com

10. India Foreign Policy
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Prime Minister attends G 20 – calls • Afghanistan conference 28
for strong signal that Eurozone
countries will make every effort to June.
protect banking systems and global
community will back a credible • Indo Pak foreign secretary
Eurozone effort. India offers USD 10
Billion to IMF firewall fund. talks to review progress
• India China PM Meet at Rio – CBMs.
reaffirm engagement despite
differences on boundary etc.
• Indo Pak relations trajectory
uncertain in light of political
developments in that country and
recent lack of progress in key talks
Sir Creek and Siachen.
www.security-risks.com

11. India Defence
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• No progress on Indo Pak • India Russia army exercise
talks on Sir Creek. in August.
• USD 1.8 billion • India China may revive
procurements approved by military exercise.
DAC.
• Arjun Mark II trials
commence in Pokhran.
• Delhi Mumbai to be covered
with BMD.
www.security-risks.com

12. India Politics and Terrorism
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Pranab Mukherjee • Red Alert on terror threats
establishes lead in in metros likely to continue
Presidential elections race,
P A Sangma candidate
supported by BJP, BJD,
AIADMK amongst others.
• AFSPA review likely to
include complaints on
redressal of human rights.
www.security-risks.com

13. Jammu and Kashmir
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Indo Pakistan flag meeting • Continuing trends - Terror
LOC firing in Punch sector encounters likely but will be
issue resolved for time away from the tourist spots.
being, cross LOC
movements however yet to
resume.
• Amarnath Yatra
commences.
• Incidents of low level
violence continue.
www.security-risks.com

14. North East
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• More indications of Maoist- • Continued trends - North
North East group links. East separatist and Naxal
• Encounter in Assam, Naga menace combination may
groups clashes in Manipur, raise threat profile in
Nagaland. Assam.
• Naga group clashes
www.security-risks.com

15. Left Wing Extremism
Trends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead
• Naxal plan for operations in • Violence levels may come
monsoon relying on PRs down in monsoons with
with Jan militia moving back likelihood of terrorist
to agricultural work in the attacks on SF.
fields.
• Police modernisation slows
due to paucity of funds.
www.security-risks.com

16. Note
• Trends are qualitative probabilistic
assessments based on news reports and may
undergo variation thus application has to be
based on assessments by individuals and
groups based on their operating environment.
• For detailed trend analysis subscription
required query email rkbhonsle@gmail.com
www.security-risks.com