6. BEYOND THE
MODELED
WORLD -
MISSING
SOURCES OF
RISK
SUPPLEMENTAL
CAUSE OF LOSS
Same cause of loss, same region,
supplemental causes of loss:
Hurricane Irene
UNMODELED CAUSE OF LOSS
Same region – separate
unmodeled cause of loss:
China winter storms
UNMODELED REGION
MISSING EXTREME
PARAMETERIZATIONS
Same cause of loss, same region,
missing extreme parameterization:
Tohoku Earthquake
Cambodia Flood
8. TAIWAN PERIL
AUDIT
What perils is
Taiwan exposed to?
What is and is not
modeled in Taiwan?
Non-modeled
Non-modeled
Non-modeled
Models
available
Models available
but missing
extreme
parameterisation
Models
available
25. • Rapidly sinking delta
• Large areas of city below sea level
• Over extraction of groundwater
• Poorly maintained flood defences
New Orleans 2005
• In the path of frequent
tropical cyclone storm
surges
• Home to 450,000
people
• Well-rehearsed
evacuation plans
HIDDEN GULF OF
THAILAND STORM
SURGE RISK: MANY
SIMILARITIES WITH
NEW ORLEANS
Bangkok 2015
• In the path of
infrequent tropical
cyclone storm surges
• Home to 8.5 million
people
• No material evacuation
plans
Five typhoons have entered the Gulf
of Thailand since 1950
Wind profile
from TC
Surge levels
from TC
26. STORM SURGE
FLOOD IN
BANGKOK
Cyclone track
2011 warning that
Bangkok “will sit under
nearly 2m of water by
2030”
Feb 11th 2013
Deputy Prime Minister
Plodprasop Suraswadi
"After April we'll start
studying this project full
steam”
30. KNOW YOUR
EXPOSURE
Determine if you are
insuring risks in
industrial clusters
Sectorial clusters of
exposure expanding
across Asia
31. PERFORMING
A RISK AUDIT
• Check coverages
• Geocode everything
• Understand the
motivations for
insurance purchase
• Evaluate the risk
management culture
Know your
exposure
Potential
for
Correlation
Understand
scenarios
32. OWN YOUR
VIEW OF RISK
Build greater resiliency
into your risk
management
framework by
managing risk outside
the models
Know your
exposure
Understand
scenarios
Quantify
your risk
RMS(one)/exposure analysis
REACT scenarios
REACT return period hazard maps
Fully probabilistic loss model