4. 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 4
Opening Quotes
• “Arabs are already in the heart of the water
catastrophe.”
• “Any delay in a serious response to the water
challenge corresponds to mass suicide.
The water apocalypse is knocking on Arab
doors, right now.”
Najib Saab, SG AFED, 12 June 2010
5. Iraq – Displacement due to Drought
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 5
IOM, July 2010
6. Iraq – Water Needs 2008 - 2010
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IOM, July 2010
7. 1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 7
Outline
• UN-ESCWA
UN Regional Commission
• Regional Water Overview:
The Many Dimensions of Water
– Water Availability and Demand
– Solutions to a Dilemma?
– Water and Food, Virtual Water, Food Imports
– Transboundary Water and Transboundary Aquifers
– Climate Change
• What remains to be said.
Hope?
10. Sustainable Development and
Productivity Division
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 10
Implementation
Approach
Regional Convening
Power for
Intergovernmental
Mechanisms
Informing Regional
Processes for
Global Negotiations
and National Action
Partnerships
Productive
Sectors Section
Green Economy
Food Security
Sustainable
Development
Goals
Energy
Section
Energy
Efficiency
Renewable
Energy
Energy
Security
Water
Resources
Section
Shared Water
Resources
Climate Change
Adaptation
MDGs
Integrated Water
Resources
Management
Support to Intergovernmental Mechanisms
ESCWA Committees (Water/Energy); LAS Councils: CAMRE (JCEDAR), AMWC, AMCE
11. Water Resources Section
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 11
Implementation
Approach
Regional
Convening
Power for
Intergovernmen
tal Mechanisms
Informing
Regional
Processes for
Global
Negotiations and
National Action
Partnerships
Shared
Water
Resources
Legal
Framework for
Shared Waters
in Arab Region
Inventory of
Shared Water
Resources in
Western Asia
Shared Water
Monitoring
Pilot Project
ESCWA-BGR
Cooperation,
LAS, AMWC
Climate
Change
Adaptation
RICCAR
(Assessment)
ACCWaM
(Adaptation)
UNDA
Projects (2)
(Capacity Building)
RCM/TWG-CC,
UN & LAS Orgs,
Working Groups,
SIDA, GIZ, AMWC,
CAMRE, Met Offices
MDGs
MDG+
Initiative
ACWUA
(Board Member)
SDGs /
Post-2015
Agenda
AMWC, ACWUA,
WHO, CEDARE,
RAED, AWC,
Stats, UN-Water
Integrated
Water
Resources
Management
Arab Strategies
and
Action Plans
AWARENET
Network
Water-Energy-
Food Nexus
(RB/DA)
Inter-Sectional
Inter-Divisional
Inter-Agency
Program Mandated by
ESCWA Committee on Water Resources & Arab Ministerial Water Council
12. Water - Challenges
• Status and Trends
• Availability vs. Use and Demand
• Renewable vs. Non-Renewable
• Population Growth and Agriculture
• Pollution – Reduction of Available Resources
• Virtual Water
• Water Imports and Transfers
• Desalination
• Transboundary Water and Aquifers
• ... and Climate Change
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13. MENA - Water - Challenges
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Governance
Demographics
Food
Water
& Land
(Energy)
18. Total Renewable Water per Person
in ESCWA Region
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ESCWA, 2009
Water Stress
Water Scarcity
Extreme Water Scarcity
19. Total Actual Renewable Water
Resources per Capita in MENA
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 19
FAO AQUASTAT, WB 2007
Water Stress
Water Scarcity
Extreme Water Scarcity
20. Arab Countries’ Water Availability and Use
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www.carboun.com, 2011
21. High Rate of Population Growth
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ICBA, Barghouti, 2009
22. High Rate of Population Growth
in ESCWA Region
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ESCWA, 2009
24. Solutions?
Efficiency, Reuse, Storage, Protection
• Increase water efficiency and conservation
• Reuse of all forms of water and (treated)
waste water
• Increase smart storage options:
Managed Aquifer Recharge
• Resources Protection
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28. Jordan:
MAR - Infiltration of Floodwater
• 2012: Cooperation MWI/JOR – BGR/BMZ/GER
– Guideline for Assessment and
Implementation of Managed Aquifer
Recharge (MAR) in (Semi-)Arid Regions
– Pre-Feasibility Study for Infiltration of
Floodwater in Amman-Zarqa and Azraq
Basins
• MAR potential map for water availability &
site suitability for two surface water basins
• Limitations:
– Source water availability in regions with
rainfall of less than 200 mm/a
– High sediment load of runoff waters
• Operation and maintenance
• Monitoring
• Assess actual effectiveness
• Increase involvement of local communities Steinel, 2012
July 1, 2013 www.escwa.un.org 28
29. Oman:
Groundwater Recharge Dams
• > 30 groundwater recharge dams, intercepting
wadi runoff, allowing for controlled recharge
downstream of dam
• Managed to hold about 1064 MCM of flood waters
until end of 2009
• Substantial experiences in siting and
dimensioning of groundwater recharge dams
July 1, 2013 www.escwa.un.org 29
35. Food Security
• Food security vs. food self-sufficiency.
• Food security vs. internal agricultural production.
• Food security and non-renewable groundwater
resources.
• A recent World Bank study on water
economics in the Middle East and North
Africa estimates that groundwater resources
depletion has substantially reduced GDP in
some countries, by 2.1% in Jordan, 1.5% in
Yemen, 1.3% in Egypt, and 1.2% in Tunis.
• Food security and virtual water - implications for:
• Trade
• Rural development, including women & youth
• Foreign revenue reserves
• Sustainability
Water and Food
38. Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia
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Accumulated 30 year groundwater abstraction, 1975 - 2004 per
Region for KSA (WaterWatch, 2006)
39. Sustainability and
Non-Renewable Groundwater
• Immediate gains vs. long term benefits
• No clear “Exit Strategy”,
no replacement for non-renewable water resource
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 39
after
Al Zubari, 2010
we are here, but
where are we
going next?
40. Declining Shares of Agriculture in GDP
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ICBA, Barghouti, 2009
41. Food Supply Chains:
Losses of Food – and Water
www.escwa.un.org 411 July 2013
Gustavsson et al., 2011
Production Volumes per Commodity Group (million tonnes)
42. Radioactivity-related Cancer Risk from
Groundwater in the Middle East?
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 42
Spiegel Online, 05 Nov 2012:
www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/radioaktive-strahlung-im-grundwasserin-nahost-und-nordafrika-a-854588.html
Schubert et al., 2011: www.psipw.org/attachments/article/300/IJWRAE_1(1)25-32.pdf
43. Sources of Water and Use
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ICBA, Barghouti, 2009
44. Alternative Future Water Policy Options
Basically 3 future policy options available:
• Population Policy change –
high political risk, long term impact,
adopted economic development model
• Agricultural Policy change –
medium political risk, medium term impact
• Water Policy change –
lower political risk, short term impact
• Combination of two or three of the above
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 44
46. www.escwa.un.org 46
TB Water & Aquifers Worldwide
• MENA Region: Only few transboundary rivers,
BUT large volumes of transboundary groundwater
• Concepts for Transboundary River Basins do not
necessarily fit to the needs in MENA
1 July 2013
52. Jordan River Basin
• 4 of 5 riparians
officially support the
1997 UN Watercourse
Convention
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 52
JORDAN
RIVER
BASIN
JORDAN
PALESTINE
SYRIA
LEBANON
Y
Y
Y
Y
N
Zeitoun 2010
53. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 53
Klein, 1998
54. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs
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Israel
Libanon
Golan
Jordan
Hasbani (125 Mio m³/a)
Dan (250 Mio m³/a)
Banias (125 Mio m³/a)
Israel
Libanon
Golan
Jordan
Hasbani (125 Mio m³/a)
Dan (250 Mio m³/a)
Banias (125 Mio m³/a)
55. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs
• Hasbani Spring, Hasbani River
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56. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs
• Ouazzani Spring, Hasbani River
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57. Upper Jordan River Basin - Springs
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Klein,1998
km2
MCM/y mm/y
Dan 17.60 228 12,954.55
Hasbani 698.00 122 174.79
Banias 189.00 113 597.88
Dan
Hasbani
Banias 189.00 113 597.88
Dan
Hasbani
Banias
511.83
489.10
904.60 463
715.60 350
67. Climate Change and Water
in the Region
Understanding Impacts
Making Adaptation Work
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 67
68. Potential Impacts
• Coupled with excessive population growth and rising
living standards,
climate change will exacerbate water scarcity conditions
across the Arab world.
• Persistent reduction of total annual precipitation coupled
with rising temperatures will reduce water availability.
• Higher temperatures will influence water quality and may
cause additional sanitation problems
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 68
69. Potential Impacts
• Changes in water availability
– Increase system resilience through surface / underground storage and transfer capacity
– Shift form surface to underground storage where applicable to reduce evaporation losses
• Urban drainage networks - new dimensions
– Sewage systems, storm runoff
• Desalination - higher temperature in feed water may increase algae growth and risk
of closure of plant intake
– Improve intake procedures
– Increase storage and transfer capacity
• Infrastructure failures
– Higher flooding intensities, frequencies
– Higher temperatures,
• Changes in hydraulic patterns and temperatures
– Loss of snowpack storage in Lebanon, Oman, etc.
• Groundwater recharge changes, impacts on spring and river discharges
– Increase managed aquifer recharge schemes
– Better monitoring and scientific understanding of recharge mechanism for predictive planning
of alternatives, before springs cease
• Seawater level rise
– Increasing groundwater salinisation
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 69
70. Change in Length of Dry Season
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Evans, J.P., 2009.
21st Century
Climate Change in the
Middle East.
71. Changes in RCM projections of seasonal
precipitation (mm/season) across the region
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 71
Hemming, D. et al., 2007. Environmental Stresses from Detailed Climate Model Simulations for the
Middle East and Gulf Regions. Defense and Security Implications of Climate Change – Gulf Region
Mar to May 2070 Sep to Nov 2070
72. Changes in RCM projections of seasonal
precipitation (mm/season) across the region
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 72
Hemming, D. et al., 2007. Environmental Stresses from Detailed Climate Model Simulations for the
Middle East and Gulf Regions. Defense and Security Implications of Climate Change – Gulf Region
74. Water, water, everywhere …
but not always enough for
everybody and everything
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 74
75. Main Messages
• Water is everybody’s business.
• Goal of many countries:
National water strategy for water security,
enough water for all demands.
• Countries in the region are largely unable to sustain their
water needs only from within their national boundaries.
• All countries are already net water importers through
food imports – virtual water.
• Largest water consumer is agriculture, although rarely
economically viable nor socially necessary.
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 75
76. Main Messages
• Urgent need to change water, agriculture and population
policies with regard to water consumption and protection.
• Surface and groundwater is often transboundary, i.e.
(needs to be) shared between neighbouring countries.
• Effective und sustainable management of transboundary
water needs willingness to cooperate for a more
equitable sharing of the benefits from the common
resource.
• Without cooperation, without innovative integration of
economic tools, social justice and environmental
sustainable approaches, without regional and bilateral
agreements on water, the region may actually slowly
move towards a mass suicide.
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 76
77. Hope? – A More Optimistic View
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78. The Scorpion and the Frog
A scorpion is asking a frog to carry him
across a river. The frog is afraid of being
stung during the trip, but the scorpion
argues that if it stung the frog, the frog would
sink and the scorpion would drown. The frog
agrees and begins carrying the scorpion, but
midway across the river the scorpion does
indeed sting the frog, dooming them both.
When asked why, the scorpion points out
that this is its nature.
Hope? – A Less Optimistic View
1 July 2013 www.escwa.un.org 78
http://www.flickr.com/photos/medmss/5887746629
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Scorpion_and_the_Frog
79. Water Resources Challenges
in the Middle East
TU Berlin, Germany
27 June 2013
Ralf Klingbeil
Regional Advisor Environment & Water