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Presentation at the Leadership Summit Chicago, IL  --  August 18, 2005 Lawrence Yun, Ph.D., Senior Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Economic and  Commercial Real Estate Market  Trends and Outlook
Economy Growing % Source: BEA
Decent Job Additions  Source: BLS
Job Gains/Losses  2005 vs 2001  Source: BLS In thousands
Job Gains/Losses in the Recent 12 months Source: BLS In thousands
Resilient Consumer Spending  Source: BEA
Stable Consumer Confidence
Despite High Oil Prices  Source: Department of Energy
Corporate Profits are Strong Source: BEA
Business Spending Rising at Double-Digit Pace Source: BEA
Stock Market at 3-year High
Trade Deficit in Bad Shape Source: BEA
Overall Trade Increasing  Source: BEA $ millions
Dollar Recovering – A Bit  Source: Federal Reserve
Inflation Building but Still Contained % change from a year ago Source: BLS
Fed Nervous About Inflation –  Forced to Tighten Credit   Forecast to 4.00% by  Dec. 2005
Narrow Spreads Suggest Further Short-term Fed Rate Hikes Pushing up Long-term Rates
Economic Outlook 2.2 million 2.0 million Job Additions 5.0% 4.4% 10-year Treasury 4.0% 3.2% 3-month Treasury 2.7% 3.0% CPI Inflation 5.1% 5.1% Unemployment Rate 3.5% 3.6% GDP 2006 2005
Commercial Real Estate Market
Commercial Outlook ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Commercial Market Highlights ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Commercial Real Estate Loans Performing  Source: Federal Reserve %
Commercial Property Rate of Return (Return = net operating income + capital appreciation)   Source: Haver Analytics, NCREIF
Commercial Property Rates of Return by Sectors  Source: Haver Analytics, NCREIF Best performer
Commercial Construction Disciplined Source: BEA
Office Market  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Office Job Creation Growth  Source: NAR/Torto-Wheaton In thousands
Office Market Fundamentals  In thousand square feet Source: NAR/Torto-Wheaton
Vacancy Rate Falling  % Source: NAR/Torto-Wheaton
Office Rent -  Gaining Traction  Source: NAR/Torto-Wheaton %
Industrial Market  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Business Inventory Change % Source: BEA Negative ???
Inventory-to-Sales Ratio Source: Department of Commerce
Industrial Market Fundamentals  In thousand square feet Source: NAR/Torto-Wheaton Research
Industrial Vacancy Rate  % Source: NAR/Torto-Wheaton Research
Industrial Rent Growth  Source: NAR/Torto-Wheaton Research %
Retail Market  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Retail Rent Growth Source: NAR/Torto-Wheaton Research %
Multi-Family Market ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Multi-family Market Fundamentals  In number of units Source: NAR/Torto-Wheaton Research
Multi-family Vacancy Rate  % Source: NAR/Torto-Wheaton Research
Multi-family Rent Growth  % Source: NAR/Torto-Wheaton Research
Housing Affordability Slipping  Source: NAR
Commercial Market Outlook Net Absorption  (Based on 57 markets) Source: NAR Forecast 262,000 237,000 Multi-Family  (units) 29,000 34,000 Retail  ( x 1,000 sq ft) 153,000 133,000 Industrial  ( x 1,000 sq ft) 56,000 61,000  Office  ( x 1,000 sq ft) 2006 2005
Commercial Market Outlook Vacancy Rate  Source: NAR Forecast 5.2% 6.2% Multi-Family 6.3% 6.3% Retail 9.8% 10.3% Industrial 13.2% 14.1% Office  2006 2005
Commercial Market Outlook Rent Growth  Source: NAR Forecast 3.0% 2.5% Multi-Family 4.0% 4.4% Retail 1.8% 0.7% Industrial 3.4% 2.3% Office  2006 2005

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