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Envisioning emerging technology                                                                                                                                                                                                          Research & visualization

       for 2012 and beyond
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                by Michell Zappa
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                mz@envisioningtech
       Understanding where technology is heading is more than guesswork. Looking at emerging trends                                                                                                                                             mz@envisioningtech.com
       and research, one can predict and draw conclusions about how the technological sphere is developing,                                                                                                                                     mz@envisioningtech.com
       and which technologies should become mainstream in the coming years. Envisioning technology is meant
       to facilitate these observations by taking a step back and seeing the wider context.
       By speculating about what lies beyond the horizon we can make better decisions of what to create today.


           ARTIFICIAL         INTERNET            INTERFACES           SENSORS           UBICOMP              ROBOTICS               BIOTECH               MATERIALS              ENERGY                 SPACE           GEOENGINEERING
         INTELLIGENCE                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  QUANTITATIVE FORECASTS



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Global online population: ± 2 billion
         High-frequency          Cloud                  Multi            Depth            Tablets                                 Rapid personal           Additive
2012         trading           computing               touch            imaging                                                  gene sequencing         manufacturing                                                                       2012           Connected devices: ±10 billion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    World population: 7 billion
2013                                                                                                                                                                              Inductive                                                  2013
                                                                                                                                                                                  chargers

                                Cyber-                Gesture          Near-field
2014                            warfare             recognition      communication                                                                                                                                                           2014
            Software
             agents                                                                      Volumetric                                                        Self-healing
                                                                                        (3D) screens          Appliance                                     materials
                                                                                                               robots                                                           Tidal turbines                                                        Global online population: ± 2.5 billion
2015                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2015            Connected devices: ±15 billion
                                                      Speech           Pervasive                                                                                                                                                                                                           Sources:
                                                    recognition          video                                                                                                                                                                                    Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04
                                  4G                                    capture
                                                                                      Flexible screens        Telematics                                                          Fuel cells                                                            InternetWorldStats – http:/ /bit.ly/AKbO5
                                                                                                                                       Organ                                                           Commercial                                             Source: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS
                                                                                                                                      printing                                                         spaceflight
2016                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2016
         Natural language
          interpretation                                                                  Boards                                                            Graphene
                                 Mesh
                              networking           Augmented           Biometric
                                                     reality                                                    Smart
                                                                        sensors                                  toys
2017                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2017
                                                                                                                                                                                Bio-enhanced
                                                                                                                                                                                    fuels
                               Photonics                4K                           Modular computers          Robotic              Synthetic
                                                                                                                surgery                blood
                                                                        Smart
                                                                     power meters
2018
                                                                                                                                                             Personal
                                                                                                                                                            fabricators

                                 Virtual                              Biomarkers           Pico-
             Machine           currencies             Haptics                            projectors           Self-driving                                                                             Sub-orbital
            translation                                                                                        vehicles            Smart drugs                                 Multi-segmented
                                                                                                                                                                                 smart grids           spaceflight


2019                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Global online population: 4-5 billion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Connected devices: 30-50 billion
                                                                        Machine                                                                               Meta-                                       Space
                                  5G                                     vision                                                                                                                          tourism                                                    $150 Hard disk: ±200 Tb
                                                                                                                                                             materials
                                                                                                                                                                                 Photovoltaic                                                                        Standard RAM: ±750Gb
                                                                                                               Powered                                                              glass
           Procedural                                                                                         exoskeleton                                                                                                                                                                  Sources:
           storytelling                                                              Eyewear-embedded                                                                                                                                                               Intel – http:/
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 /intel.ly/pWbH04
                                                                                          screens                                                                                                                                                                  Ericsson – http://bit.ly/avvVok
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Alan Conroy – http:/ /bit.ly/pofHp5
2020                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2020           FutureTimeline – http:/ /bit.ly/qz4ben

                                                                                                                                   Personalized
                                                                                                                                    medicine
                                                   Holography
                                                                                                                                                               Optical
                                                                                                                                                         invisibility cloaks        Piezo-                                    Weather
                                                                                       Context-aware                                                                              electricity
                                                                                        computing                                                                                                                            engineering
                                                                                                                                      In-vitro
                                                                                                                                       meat
                              Reputation                                                                     Commercial
                               economy                                                                         UAVs
                                                                     Computational
                                                                      photography
                                                                                                                                     Synthetic                                                                                                                      Petabyte storage standard
                                                                                      Fabric-embedded                                 biology                Carbon
                                                                                           screens                                                          nanotubes                                                                                                 Source: http:/
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   /bit.ly/r9BYQc


             VR-only                               Telepresence
            lifeforms                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           $ 1.000 computer reaches the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  capacity of the human brain
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               (± 1015 calculations per second)
                                                                                                                                     Stem-cell                                                                                 Vertical                              Source: http:/
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  /bit.ly/6MoQJc
                                                                                                                                    treatments                                                                                 farming


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    World population: 8 billion
                             Interplanetary                                           Reprogrammable           Domestic                                    Biomaterials         Biomechanical                                                                   Source: U.N. – http:/
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    /bit.ly/7nqQkS
                                internet                                                   chips                robots                                                            harvesting


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  BRICs GDP overtakes the G7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Source: Goldman Sachs – http:/
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 /bit.ly/nc9Wqj


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Sea-
                                                                                                                                                                                   Nano-                                       steading
                                                                                                                                                                                 generators
                                                                      Optogenetics
                                                                                                                                  Gene therapy


                                                                                                                                                                                  Artificial
2030                                                                                                                                                                           photosynthesis                                                2030
                                                                                      Skin-embedded                                                         Molecular                                                                                          Terabit internet speed standard
                                                                                          screens              Swarm                                        assembler                                                                                                Source: http:/
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  /bit.ly/kPMKMb
                                                                                                               robotics
                                                    Immersive
                                                   virtual reality

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Desalination

                                                                                                                                       Hybrid                                                             Lunar
                                                                                                                                   assisted limbs                                  Enernet               outpost
                               Remote
                               presence

                                                                                          Retinal
                                                                                          screens
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Exabyte storage standard
                                                                                                                                                            Nanowires
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Source: http:/
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  /bit.ly/kPMKMb

                                                                                                                                     Artificial                                                            Mars                 Carbon
                                                                                                                                     retinas                                                             mission            sequestration
                                                                         Neuro-                                                                                                   Thorium
                                                                       informatics                                                                                                 reactor

                                                                                                              Embodied
                                                                                                               avatars


                                                                                                                                  Nanomedicine                                                                                 Climate
                               Exocortex                                                                                                                                                                                     engineering


                                                                                                                                                         Programmable                                     Space
                                                                                                                                                             matter                                      elevator
            Machine-
           augmented
            cognition
                                                                                                                                       Anti-                                     Traveling
                                                                                                                                       aging                                    wave reactor
                                                                                                                                       drugs



                                                                                                                 Utility
                                                                                                                  fog

                                                                                                                                                                                Space-based               Solar               Arcologies
                                                                                                                                                                                 solar power               sail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    World population: 9 billion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Source: U.N. – http:/
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    /bit.ly/7nqQkS

2040                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2040

          BITS                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ATOMS




                            RELATIVE IMPORTANCE                                                          CONSUMER IMPACT                                                                   CLUSTER OF TECHNOLOGIES
                            The node size indicates the predicted                                        The outline of a node indicates a consumer                                        A jagged outline indicates a cluster of
                            importance of a technology.                                                  impact larger than the technological novelty.                                     similar technologies grouped together.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Last updated:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2012-02-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          BY          SA

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Envisioningtech

  • 1. Envisioning emerging technology Research & visualization for 2012 and beyond by Michell Zappa mz@envisioningtech Understanding where technology is heading is more than guesswork. Looking at emerging trends mz@envisioningtech.com and research, one can predict and draw conclusions about how the technological sphere is developing, mz@envisioningtech.com and which technologies should become mainstream in the coming years. Envisioning technology is meant to facilitate these observations by taking a step back and seeing the wider context. By speculating about what lies beyond the horizon we can make better decisions of what to create today. ARTIFICIAL INTERNET INTERFACES SENSORS UBICOMP ROBOTICS BIOTECH MATERIALS ENERGY SPACE GEOENGINEERING INTELLIGENCE QUANTITATIVE FORECASTS Global online population: ± 2 billion High-frequency Cloud Multi Depth Tablets Rapid personal Additive 2012 trading computing touch imaging gene sequencing manufacturing 2012 Connected devices: ±10 billion World population: 7 billion 2013 Inductive 2013 chargers Cyber- Gesture Near-field 2014 warfare recognition communication 2014 Software agents Volumetric Self-healing (3D) screens Appliance materials robots Tidal turbines Global online population: ± 2.5 billion 2015 2015 Connected devices: ±15 billion Speech Pervasive Sources: recognition video Intel – http://intel.ly/pWbH04 4G capture Flexible screens Telematics Fuel cells InternetWorldStats – http:/ /bit.ly/AKbO5 Organ Commercial Source: U.N. – http://bit.ly/7nqQkS printing spaceflight 2016 2016 Natural language interpretation Boards Graphene Mesh networking Augmented Biometric reality Smart sensors toys 2017 2017 Bio-enhanced fuels Photonics 4K Modular computers Robotic Synthetic surgery blood Smart power meters 2018 Personal fabricators Virtual Biomarkers Pico- Machine currencies Haptics projectors Self-driving Sub-orbital translation vehicles Smart drugs Multi-segmented smart grids spaceflight 2019 2019 Global online population: 4-5 billion Connected devices: 30-50 billion Machine Meta- Space 5G vision tourism $150 Hard disk: ±200 Tb materials Photovoltaic Standard RAM: ±750Gb Powered glass Procedural exoskeleton Sources: storytelling Eyewear-embedded Intel – http:/ /intel.ly/pWbH04 screens Ericsson – http://bit.ly/avvVok Alan Conroy – http:/ /bit.ly/pofHp5 2020 2020 FutureTimeline – http:/ /bit.ly/qz4ben Personalized medicine Holography Optical invisibility cloaks Piezo- Weather Context-aware electricity computing engineering In-vitro meat Reputation Commercial economy UAVs Computational photography Synthetic Petabyte storage standard Fabric-embedded biology Carbon screens nanotubes Source: http:/ /bit.ly/r9BYQc VR-only Telepresence lifeforms $ 1.000 computer reaches the capacity of the human brain (± 1015 calculations per second) Stem-cell Vertical Source: http:/ /bit.ly/6MoQJc treatments farming World population: 8 billion Interplanetary Reprogrammable Domestic Biomaterials Biomechanical Source: U.N. – http:/ /bit.ly/7nqQkS internet chips robots harvesting BRICs GDP overtakes the G7 Source: Goldman Sachs – http:/ /bit.ly/nc9Wqj Sea- Nano- steading generators Optogenetics Gene therapy Artificial 2030 photosynthesis 2030 Skin-embedded Molecular Terabit internet speed standard screens Swarm assembler Source: http:/ /bit.ly/kPMKMb robotics Immersive virtual reality Desalination Hybrid Lunar assisted limbs Enernet outpost Remote presence Retinal screens Exabyte storage standard Nanowires Source: http:/ /bit.ly/kPMKMb Artificial Mars Carbon retinas mission sequestration Neuro- Thorium informatics reactor Embodied avatars Nanomedicine Climate Exocortex engineering Programmable Space matter elevator Machine- augmented cognition Anti- Traveling aging wave reactor drugs Utility fog Space-based Solar Arcologies solar power sail World population: 9 billion Source: U.N. – http:/ /bit.ly/7nqQkS 2040 2040 BITS ATOMS RELATIVE IMPORTANCE CONSUMER IMPACT CLUSTER OF TECHNOLOGIES The node size indicates the predicted The outline of a node indicates a consumer A jagged outline indicates a cluster of importance of a technology. impact larger than the technological novelty. similar technologies grouped together. Last updated: 2012-02-10 BY SA