1. Market Review and Outlook
QE Index and Volume
The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index gained 97.13 points, or 0.93%,
during the week, to close at 10,486.23 points. Market capitalization
increased by 0.99% to reach QR559.5 billion (bn) as compared to
QR554.0bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 42 listed
companies, 24 companies ended the week higher while 15 fell and 3
remained unchanged. Widam Food Company (WDAM) was the best
performing stock with a gain of 9.25%; the stock is down 5.61% yearto-date (YTD). The stock was also actively traded with 1.2mn shares
traded during the week. Vodafone Qatar (VFQS) was the worst
performing stock with a decline of 3.21% on 22.3mn shares traded; the
stock is up 37.37% YTD.
10,510
20,000,000
10,496.89
10,457.12
10,455
10,000,000
10,436.52
10,434.10
10,400
0
8-Dec
9-Dec
10-Dec
Week ended
Dec 05, 2013
1,585.0
559,458.1
553,978.1
1.0
55.7
13.4
25,891
22,628
14.4
42
42
0.0
24:15
22:18
8.7
Companies Traded
Value Traded (QR mn)
Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn)
Volume (mn)
Number of Transactions
Market Breadth
Market Indices
Close
Total Return
14,982.41
All Share Index
2,610.14
Banks/Financial Svcs.
2,485.82
Industrials
3,436.90
Transportation
1,933.51
Real Estate
2,026.25
Insurance
2,370.57
Telecoms
1,462.46
Consumer
5,983.87
Al Rayan Islamic Index
3,077.36
Market Indices
Weekly Index Performance
7.5%
Qatar (QE)*
Dubai
Abu Dhabi
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Oman
Bahrain
Close
10,486.23
3,157.85
4,000.94
8,387.61
7,704.34
6,749.75
1,206.70
WTD%
MTD%
YTD%
0.9
4.8
1.6
1.7
(0.8)
(0.3)
0.8
1.1
7.2
3.9
0.7
(1.0)
0.3
(0.2)
25.4
94.6
52.1
23.3
29.8
17.2
13.2
WTD%
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.7
0.1
1.4
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.3
Chg. %
27.2
MTD%
1.1
1.1
1.6
1.0
(0.5)
1.6
0.2
0.6
0.1
1.5
YTD%
32.4
29.6
27.5
30.8
44.3
25.7
20.7
37.3
28.1
23.7
4.8%
5.0%
1.7%
2.5%
1.6%
0.9%
0.8%
0.0%
Weekly Exchange
Traded Value ($ mn)
775.39
1,371.24
752.44
5983.25
431.34
125.28
9.63
Exchange Mkt.
Cap. ($ mn)
153,683.1
72,132.0
113,758.4
448,533.9#
109,375.0
9336.5
49,714.0
Kuwait
(0.3%) (0.8%)
Oman
Bahrain
Qatar
Abu Dhabi
Saudi Arabia
Dubai
(2.5%)
The GCC markets remained mixed during the week. Dubai‟s
benchmark index was the top performer, surging by 4.8% WoW; it is
up 94.6% YTD. On the other hand, Kuwait‟s index retreated by 0.8%
WoW.
Regional Indices
QE Index
63.2
On the other hand, Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) after two weeks of
significant contribution to the QE Index’s weekly gain dragged it
by 11.0 points during the week. MARK is up 35.94% YTD and hit a
52-week high of QR34.30 during Sunday‟s (December 08, 2013)
trading session. Vodafone Qatar (VFQS) shaved the index down by
5.4 points WoW.
Foreign institutions remained bullish for the week with net buying
of QR149.4mn vs. net buying of QR29.0mn in the prior week.
Qatari institutions remained bearish with net selling of QR12.3mn vs.
net selling of QR62.1mn the week before. Foreign retail investors
remained bearish for the week with net selling of QR19.0mn vs.
QR33.0mn in the prior week. Qatari retailer investors turned bearish
with net selling of QR118.6mn vs. net buying of QR65.9mn the week
before.
12-Dec
Week ended
Dec 12, 2013
2,016.7
Market Indicators
Trading volume increased by 13.38% to reach 63.2mn shares vs.
55.7mn shares in the prior week. The number of transaction rose
by 14.42% to reach 25,891 transactions versus 22,628 transactions in
the prior week. The Telecoms sector led the trading volume,
accounting for 35.5% of the total.
11-Dec
Volume
QNB Group (QNBK) was the biggest contributor to the QE
Index’s weekly gain. The stock contributed 34.6 points to the
index‟s weekly gain; QNBK is up 2.35% week-over-week (WoW) and
32.9% YTD. Industries Qatar (IQCD) was the second biggest
contributor adding 26.0 points; the stock has gained 1.63% WoW.
Trading value during the week increased by 27.24% to reach
QR2.0bn vs. QR1.6bn in the prior week. The Banks and Financial
Services led the trading value during the week, accounting for 33.0%
of the total equity trading value.
10,486.23
TTM P/E**
P/B**
Dividend Yield
13.4
18.6
11.2
17.2
16.6
10.6
8.1
1.8
1.3
1.4
2.1
1.2
1.6
0.9
4.4
2.8
4.5
3.5
3.7
3.8
4.0
#
Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) ( Data as of December 11, 2013)
Page 1 of 5
2. News
Economic News
Lasting Iran deal could lead to a Qatar rating upgrade –
According to QNB Group, Qatar, which does not face any
imminent threat from the US shale gas boom, could expect to
get higher ratings if there is a permanent solution for Iran
nuclear crisis. QNB‟s Head of Economics Joannes Mongardini
said that Qatar‟s non-hydrocarbon sector is expected to grow
faster than its oil segment and is expected to witness an
additional inflow of 300,000 workers to fill in 240,000 new jobs
over the next one to two years. (Gulf-Times.com)
QCB issues 3 and 5-year government bonds, sukuk – The
Qatar Central Bank has issued QR4bn worth of government
bonds and sukuk with three-year and five-year durations. (QCB
press release)
Doha metro stations set for completion by 2018 – The
construction work on major underground stations of the Doha
Metro Project, which are progressing as scheduled, are
expected to be accomplished by 2018. Saad Ahmed alMuhannadi, CEO of Qatar Rail Company said that work on the
underground projects is moving along as scheduled and the
Lusail Light Rail Transit (LRT) has reached an advanced stage.
The Lusail LRT underground station is almost complete with
regard to civil engineering works. Other architectural and
technical works would be held in another stage in connection
with other stations. (Gulf-Times.com)
MMUP embarks on several urban projects in 2013 – The
Ministry of Municipality & Urban Planning (MMUP) has
embarked on several projects in 2013 to improve its
performance & services, boost Qatar‟s comprehensive
construction plan and develop different municipalities in Qatar.
MMUP has completed a feasibility study on a draft project of
Bus Rapid Transit System. The ministry has prepared a draft
strategy for housing workers and laying guidelines for the
development of coastal areas. The ministry has also adopted a
national heritage strategy and the preparation of master plans
for the Doha Port in collaboration with the Public Works
Authority (Ashghal). Moreover, the Ministry has contributed to
the 2022 FIFA World Cup project by preparing master plans for
stadiums areas and locating 92 exercise playgrounds in Qatar.
The ministry has also provided support to the Qatar Olympic
Committee by preparing the general plan for the Olympic Park
in Lusail City. The total number of new projects for land
distribution in coordination with the Department of Urban
Planning has reached 5,942 in 2012-2013. (Bloomberg)
QCB: Construction sector surged by 9.3% in 2012 –
According to the data released by the Qatar Central Bank
(QCB), Qatar‟s construction sector rose by 9.3% in 2012 to
emerge as one of the fastest growing non-oil sectors. The
construction sector has gained nearly QR2.3bn in 2012 to climb
to a record high in current prices. However, the report showed
that the construction sector‟s share of GDP had edged down to
10.5% in 2012 from 11.2% in 2011. (Bloomberg)
Market & Corporate News
QCB, QFCRA, QFMA jointly launch strategic plan for
Qatar’s financial sector regulation – The Qatar Central Bank
(QCB), the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority
(QFCRA) and the Qatar Financial Markets Authority (QFMA)
have jointly launched a strategic plan for the future of financial
sector regulation in Qatar. The plan will establish a framework
for regulating Qatar‟s financial sector by laying a roadmap of
strategic priorities for the 2014-2016 period. This strategic plan
is a comprehensive document that contains six mutually re-
enforcing goals, each of which is supported by specific work
plans among QCB, QFCRA and QFMA. These goals include:
enhancing regulation by developing a consistent risk-based
micro-prudential framework, expanding macro-prudential
oversight, strengthening the financial market infrastructure,
enhancing consumer & investor protection, promoting
regulatory cooperation and building human capital. This
strategic plan will position Qatar as a leader in the regional
financial sector and will support Qatar‟s ambition to be a global
financial center. (QCB)
QNB to offer benefits-packed salary account campaign –
QNB has launched its new fully enhanced salary account
campaign, which offers different packages along with multiple
benefits and most competitive interest rates to customers.
According to Heba al-Tamimi, QNB Group‟s Retail Banking
General Manager, this campaign is innovatively designed to
cater to each customer's specific needs. Customers can also
benefit from the lowest interest rates in Qatar on personal loans
of 3.45% along with vehicle loans at 1.99%. To ensure that this
offer will benefit all customers, mortgage loans will also be part
of the campaign. Customers will receive as much as QR10,000
in cash back in addition to the very low interest rate of 3.75%
when they transfer their mortgage loans to us. (QNB Group
Press Release, Gulf-Times.com)
QR1.8bn Helium 2 Plant starts up at Ras Laffan – Qatar has
become the world‟s largest exporter and second-largest
producer of helium with the start up of the QR1.8bn Helium 2
Plant at Ras Laffan with a design capacity of 1.3bn standard
cubic feet a year. The plant, which is the world‟s largest helium
refining facility, co-owned by Qatargas and RasGas, will be
operated by the latter. (Gulf-Times.com)
QP signs MoU to construct butadiene extraction, elastomer
complex – Qatar Petroleum (QP) has entered into a MoU with
Zeon Corporation and Mitsui & Co. Ltd for the construction of its
butadiene extraction and elastomer complex in Qatar‟s
industrial city of Ras Laffan. This plant will produce rubber from
chemicals made at the planned petrochemical complex.
(Bloomberg)
Lusail City’s 80% of properties sold – Qatari Diar Real
Estate Investment Company said that 80% of real estate in the
new Lusail City has been sold. (Bloomberg)
KCBK’s BoD approves bank’s 2014 budget, business plans
– Al Khalij Commercial Bank‟s (KCBK) board of directors has
discussed the provisional budget for 2014 and approved a
number of items related to bank‟s business plans and regular
activities. These include approval for new policies and
frameworks that aim to enhance governance within the
organization. (QE)
Ooredoo Algeria plans to float 10-15% stake on Algiers
Bourse in 2014 – Ooredoo Algeria‟s CEO Joseph Ged said the
company is planning to float 10-15% of its stake on the Algiers
Bourse in 2014. The company expects a net profit of $190mn
on a turnover of $1bn in 2013. (Bloomberg)
QGRI to study converting QGHC into private shareholding
– The Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Company‟s
(QGRI) management has decided to carry out a study to
convert the Qatar General Holding Company (QGHC) from a
“one person company” to a “private shareholding company”.
This move will separate its real estate and investment activities
into a separate legal entity. (QE)
Page 2 of 5
3. Qatar Exchange
Top 5 Gainers
Top 5 Decliners
0.0%
12.0%
9.3%
-1.5%
-2.0%
8.0%
-2.2%
-2.1%
-3.2%
4.3%
3.7%
4.0%
-1.9%
-4.0%
3.1%
2.4%
0.0%
-6.0%
Widam Food Qatar Cinema
Co.
& Film
Distribution
Aamal
Qatar General Qatar National
Insurance &
Cement
Reinsurance
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Qatar German Mazaya Qatar Qatar Islamic
Co. for
Insurance
Medical
Devices
Al Meera
Consumer
Goods
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million)
300.0
Vodafone
Qatar
Most Active Shares by Volume (Million)
294.3
24.0
22.3
258.9
224.0
205.9
200.0
187.3
16.0
9.5
100.0
8.0
6.0
3.8
0.0
3.0
0.0
Barwa Real
Estate
Vodafone
Qatar
Industries
Qatar
Masraf Al
Rayan
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
19.59%
80%
24.74%
Barwa Real
Estate
Masraf Al
Rayan
Mazaya Qatar
United
Development
Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million)
130
12.18%
12.71%
60%
Vodafone
Qatar
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded
100%
QNB Group
13.65%
Non-Qatari
651
25.35%
40%
42.95%
521
(131)
48.83%
20%
Qatari
1,496
1,365
0%
Buy
Sell
Qatari Individuals
Qatari Institutions
Non-Qatari Individuals
Non-Qatari Institutions
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
(400)
(200)
-
200
Net Investment
400
600
800
Total Sold
1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600
Total Bought
Source: Qatar Exchange (QE)
Page 3 of 5
4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX
Source: Bloomberg
The QE Index extended its upmove and ended last week on a positive note. The index breached the important resistance band of 10,400.0-10,450.0 and
also tagged a 52-week high on Wednesday, but later reversed in the day. However, the Thursday‟s gains pushed the index closer to the 10,500.0 level. We
believe until the time the index trades above the support band of 10,400.0-10,450.0, the bulls may continue to take charge and may push it higher toward
the 10,550.0-10,600.0 levels. On the flip side, if the index retreats below the support band of 10,400.0-10,450.0, it may witness selling pressure and test the
10,350.0 level which is in proximity to the 21-day moving average. Any weakness below this level may drag the index further to test its strong support near
the 10,300.0 level. Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators are providing mixed signals indicating signs of a volatile week ahead. Thus, traders are
advised to exercise caution and keep a close watch on the support levels for any reversal signs.
DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates
between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if
the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the
convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the
MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend.
Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The „body‟ of the chart is portion between
the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the „shadow‟. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day
candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis.
Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and
based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal.
Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each
other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The
Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
Page 4 of 5
5. Price % Change 5(Dec 12)
Day
% Change
Monthly
Market Cap.
QR Million
TTM P/E
P/B
Div. Yield
174.00
2.35
1.16
121,753
13.2
2.4
3.4
Qatar Islamic Bank
70.10
0.14
0.43
16,564
15.3
1.4
5.3
Commercial Bank of Qatar
70.70
2.17
2.76
17,494
10.0
1.3
8.5
Doha Bank
57.00
0.88
2.15
14,727
10.0
1.6
7.3
Al Ahli Bank
56.00
(1.23)
6.67
7,116
13.7
2.1
5.4
Qatar International Islamic Bank
61.20
0.82
1.83
9,264
12.9
1.8
5.7
Masraf Al Rayan
33.70
(1.03)
2.12
25,275
15.1
2.5
3.0
Al Khaliji Bank
19.90
0.76
(0.50)
7,164
13.5
1.3
5.0
National Leasing
31.20
(0.32)
(0.32)
1,544
13.2
1.2
6.4
Dlala Holding
22.30
1.73
3.00
495
N/M
2.2
N/A
Qatar & Oman Investment
12.75
(0.62)
(0.08)
402
26.7
1.2
3.9
Islamic Holding Group
41.15
0.00
3.91
165
22.1
2.9
2.7
Company Name
Qatar National Bank
221,963
Banking and Financial Services
Zad Holding
68.20
0.44
2.10
892
9.1
0.7
5.9
Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices
14.55
(2.15)
(0.82)
168
N/M
0.9
N/A
Salam International Investment
12.38
0.73
(0.64)
1,415
11.0
0.8
5.7
Medicare Group
53.10
(0.56)
(0.75)
1,494
24.3
1.9
3.4
Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution
43.80
4.29
(1.02)
250
33.5
1.8
4.6
(0.31)
(0.52)
18,581
15.5
3.1
3.5
999
16.6
4.1
7.2
2,680
18.4
2.1
6.0
286.00
Qatar Fuel
55.50
Qatar Meat and Livestock
134.00
Al Meera Consumer Goods
9.25
(1.47)
13.73
(0.74)
26,480
Consumer Goods and Services
50.70
0.20
(0.20)
2,008
9.5
1.5
5.9
Qatar National Cement
107.50
2.38
4.37
5,278
12.4
2.1
5.6
Industries Qatar
168.80
1.63
0.36
102,124
12.6
3.2
4.6
(1.22)
2.14
5,035
21.6
2.4
1.9
169.00
1.75
0.12
16,900
11.2
3.0
4.3
Mannai Corp.
87.30
0.23
(0.68)
3,983
8.7
1.7
5.4
Aamal
15.55
3.67
3.53
9,330
14.8
1.4
N/A
Gulf International Services
59.40
1.19
1.37
8,831
14.6
3.1
2.5
Qatar Industrial Manufacturing
40.50
Qatari Investors Group
Qatar Electricity and Water
153,489
Industrials
Qatar Insurance
67.00
0.00
0.75
8,605
10.5
1.8
3.0
Doha Insurance
25.25
0.20
(0.98)
650
11.5
1.3
3.6
Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance
49.50
3.13
(1.00)
2,853
3.3
0.8
1.8
Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance
39.00
0.00
0.00
666
13.9
1.1
2.1
Qatar Islamic Insurance
57.80
(1.87)
0.00
867
13.6
3.1
6.0
13,641
Insurance
United Development
23.50
0.77
0.51
7,925
9.7
0.7
4.3
Barwa Real Estate
30.90
2.15
2.49
12,024
17.6
0.9
4.9
Ezdan Real Estate
17.20
(0.92)
(1.32)
45,623
N/M
1.6
0.8
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development
11.52
(2.12)
(0.69)
1,152
17.4
1.1
5.2
66,724
Real Estate
136.50
0.74
0.07
43,724
16.6
1.8
3.7
11.47
(3.21)
3.33
9,697
N/M
1.6
N/A
Qatar Navigation (Milaha)
86.00
(1.15)
(3.91)
9,849
10.1
0.8
4.4
Gulf Warehousing
40.70
(0.61)
(0.73)
1,936
19.4
2.5
N/A
Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat)
Transportation
21.35
1.18
2.40
11,956
15.6
3.4
4.7
Qatar Telecom
Vodafone Qatar
53,421
Telecoms
23,741
Qatar Exchange
559,458
Source: Bloomberg
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar
Ahmed M. Shehada
Keith Whitney
Sahbi Kasraoui
Head of Research
Head of Trading
Head of Sales
Manager - HNWI
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534
Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
Tel: (+974) 4476 6533
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa
ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa
keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa
QNB Financial Services SPC
Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
PO Box 24025, Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar
Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an
offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential
investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be
reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts,
QNBFS does not make any representations warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right
to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views
and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 5 of 5