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16th Annual Global CEO Survey
The disruptive decade p3/ What worries CEOs most? p5/ A three-pronged
approach p10/ It’s a question of trust p22




Dealing with
disruption
Adapting to survive
and thrive
                                                        1,330
                                                        CEOs in 68 countries




                                                        36%
                                                        of CEOs are very confident
                                                        about their growth prospects
                                                        See page 3




                                                        82%
                                                        of CEOs plan to change
                                                        customer strategies in 2013
                                                        See page 15




                                                         www.pwc.com/ceosurvey
During the past decade, we’ve seen
          economic volatility and disruption
          escalate to arguably unprecedented
          levels. In a globalised world – one
          where countries, economies and
          companies are more interconnected
          and interdependent than ever before
          – risks that once seemed improbable
          and even remote have become the
          norm. For business leaders across the
          world, ‘expect the unexpected’ has
          become the mantra.

          To navigate through this environment,         The focus on trust also goes much
          companies need to develop resilience.
Preface   This combines an ability to ride out the
          immediate impact of shocks with a
                                                        further. In the post-crisis world, trust is
                                                        at a premium. But it’s also an essential
                                                        component of the ongoing relationship
          long-term capacity to adapt to constantly     between an organisation and all its
          changing conditions. We’re helping            stakeholders – and thereby an
          more and more of our clients achieve          important pillar of resilience. With
          this blend of qualities not only to survive   social media giving a voice to evermore
          through new and emerging challenges,          diverse groups of stakeholders, CEOs
          but to thrive in this environment.            are recognising the need to secure a
          In my view, the shift to resilience helps     stronger social mandate by rebuilding
          to explain the widening gap between           public trust. From promoting an ethical
          CEOs’ levels of confidence in their           culture to increasing workforce
          organisations’ one-year and three-year        diversity and reducing environmental
          outlooks. This year’s survey shows that       impacts, they’re pursuing a wide array
          just 36% of CEOs are ‘very confident’         of initiatives to simultaneously support
          about their business’s growth prospects       their growth strategies, establish the
          over the next 12 months, down from            right mandate and boost resilience.
          40% in 2012 and 48% in 2011 (see              My sincere thanks go to the more than
          Figure 1). In contrast, the proportion        1,300 CEOs from 68 countries who
          confident about growth over the coming        shared their thinking with us. Their
          three years has held up much better.          active and candid participation is the
          This suggests that leaders believe their      single greatest factor in the success of
          organisations can be resilient by             the PwC Annual Global CEO Survey,
          rolling with the short-term blows while       now in its 16th year. We greatly
          reshaping for longer-term growth.             appreciate our respondents’ willingness
          What strategies are CEOs adopting to          – indeed eagerness – to free up their
          become more resilient? Our findings           valuable time to help make this survey
          highlight three common approaches.            as comprehensive as possible. I’m
          First, they’re targeting specific pockets     especially grateful to the 33 CEOs who
          of opportunity for organic growth,            sat down with us in late 2012 to hold
          avoiding spreading their resources too        deeper and more detailed conversations.
          thinly. Second, they’re maintaining a         You can see their verbatim comments
          clear focus on the customer, taking           throughout this report.
          active steps to stimulate demand,
          loyalty and innovation in their
          customer base – through mechanisms
          ranging from digital marketing
          platforms to collaborative R&D. And
          third, they’re fine-tuning their
          operational effectiveness by reducing         Dennis M. Nally
          costs without cutting value and               Chairman, PricewaterhouseCoopers
          collaborating with trusted partners.          International
Contents


The disruptive decade	                                              3

What worries CEOs most?	                                            5

A three-pronged approach	                                          10
    Targeting pockets of opportunity	                              10

    Concentrating on the customer	                                  14

    Improving operational effectiveness	                           18


It’s a question of trust	                                          22

CEO survey participants	                                           28

Research methodology and key contacts	                             30




                                           PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey  1
I think the level of external threats has increased with every
           passing decade. And as the pace of change has increased,
           organisations like ours have to be a lot more flexible than
           we might have been in the past.
           Shikha Sharma, Managing Director and CEO, Axis Bank Limited, India




2  PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey
global economy will stay the same for

The disruptive decade                                                                                   the next 12 months and only 28%
                                                                                                        believe it will shrink. In 2012, by
                                                                                                        contrast, 48% were convinced the
                                                                                                        global economy would contract.

                                                                                                        But economic plateaux aren’t exactly
                                                     The global economic outlook is                     grounds for cheer. That’s why short-
                                                     certainly enough to test even the                  term confidence about the prospects
                                                     strongest enterprises. The eurozone                for revenue growth has continued
                                                     is still mired in recession and the US             falling (see Figure 1). CEOs in Western
                                                     economy is forecast to expand by just              Europe are especially nervous. Only
                                                     2.2% this year.1 The situation in some             22% feel very confident they can
                                                     of the growth markets is also getting              increase their company’s revenues in
                                                     harder, as the slowdown in the BRIC                the coming 12 months, compared with
                                                     economies demonstrates.                            53% of CEOs in the Middle East and
                                                                                                        Latin America.
                                                     While market conditions in many
                                                     countries are still very difficult, CEOs
                                                     are more positive about the prognosis
                                                     than they were last year: 52% think the


 Figure 1: CEO confidence has gone up and down sharply over the past decade
 Q: How confident are you about your company’s prospects for revenue growth over the next 12 months?


       60%          Very confident about company’s
                    prospects for revenue growth
                    over the next 12 months                   52%
                                                                         50%
       50                                                                                                    48%


                                            41%
       40
                                                                                                                        40%
                              31%
                                                                                                                                    36%
       30
                 26%
                                                                                                 31%


       20
                                                                                     21%


       10




        0

                 2003          2004          2005   2006     2007        2008        2009        2010       2011        2012        2013

 Base: All respondents (2013=1,330; 2012=1,258; 2011=1,201; 2010=1,198; 2009=1,124; 2008=1,150; 2007=1,084; 2006 (not asked); 2005=1,324;
 2004=1,386; 2003=989)
 Source: PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey




1	 PwC, ‘Global Economy Watch’ (December 2012).


                                                                                                              PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey  3
The prevailing mood is, as usual,                            …people always tend to think
                                                                   somewhat more optimistic when it                             that a tough economic situation
                                                                   comes to the longer-term outlook:
                                                                                                                                is the sign of a ‘new normal’
                                                                   46% of CEOs are very confident about
                                                                   expanding over the next three years.
                                                                                                                                and, conversely, that a robust
                                                                   That said, CEOs in most parts of the                         world economy will last forever.
                                                                   world are much less positive than                            But economic conditions
                                                                   their peers in the E7 markets (46%                           always alternate.
                                                                   versus 58%).2                                                Yasuchika Hasegawa, President and
                                                                   It’s easy to understand why they’re                          CEO, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company
                                                                   so cautious. Far-reaching changes                            Ltd., Japan
                                                                   are happening – and they’re also
                                                                   happening faster than before. Between
When people ask me, ‘What’s going                                  1970 and 2011, the number of man-
                                                                   made disasters nearly tripled, while
to happen in the next five years?’,
                                                                   the number of natural disasters surged
I throw up my hands and say                                        sevenfold.3 The past decade alone has
‘I have no idea and neither do you.’                               seen a number of major disruptions
How do you cope with that degree                                   (see Figure 2).
of uncertainty? Well, I think, first,
                                                                   In short, improbable risks aren’t so
by having the right attitude about                                 improbable now; they’re becoming
the process of change and reinvention.                             the norm in a more uncertain world.
Peter Tortorici, CEO, GroupM                                       And CEOs everywhere are feeling
Entertainment Global, US                                           the heat.


 Figure 2: Major disruptions over the last decade

                                                                  Indonesia earthquake

                                                                                    iPhone launch
                                                                                    Global financial crash
                                                                                    Northern Rock bank run (UK)

             US-led invasion of Iraq                                                                Lehman Brothers’ collapse
             SARS epidemic                                                                          US, UK and European bank bailouts
                                                                                                    Wenchuan earthquake (China)

                               Southeast Asian tsunami                                                              WHO declares swine flu pandemic

                                                                                                                                   Eurozone sovereign debt crisis
                                                                                                                                   and first Greek bailout

                                                Hurricane                                                                                         New Zealand and Japan
                                                Katrina                                                                                           earthquake and tsunami
                                                (US)
                                                                                                                                                                 Hurricane Sandy
                                                                                                                                                                 (US)


      2003              2004             2005              2006              2007            2008            2009           2010           2011           2012           2013


 Source: PwC




2	 E7 markets: China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey.
3	 Swiss Re, sigma No 2/2012.


4  PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey
What worries CEOs most?

The global community of regulators                     Today’s CEOs are concerned about a
– as well as the political classes – are               wide range of potential and ongoing
                                                       threats to their business growth
keen on ensuring the stability of the
                                                       prospects. These include catastrophic
financial system. And that implies                     events, economic and policy threats
a completely new order, a new set of                   and commercial threats.
rules to play by. In these cases, it’s
not uncommon to wind up in a                           Major disruptions
situation of regulatory overreach.                     We asked CEOs about their
Piyush Gupta, CEO and Director,                        organisation’s ability to cope with the
DBS Group, Singapore                                   potential impact of various disruptive
                                                       scenarios. The majority thought their
                                                       organisations would be negatively
                                                       affected, with major social unrest being
                                                       cause for the greatest concern (see
                                                       Figure 3). Indeed, CEOs are far more
                                                       concerned about this than they are
                                                       about a slowdown in China, possibly
                                                       because they’ve already factored the
                                                       latter into their calculations.


 Figure 3: Major social unrest tops the list of scenarios that would have the worst impact on CEOs’ organisations
 Q: How well would your organisation be able to cope with the following scenarios, if they happened within the next 12 months?
 (respondents who answered ‘negative impact’)


                     Major social unrest in the country in which you are based          75

                                                           Recession in the US          67

                               Cyber attack or major disruption of the internet         63

              A natural disaster disrupting a major trading/manufacturing hub           56

                                                    A breakup of the eurozone           53

                Military or trade tensions affecting access to natural resources        53

                    Health crisis (e.g. viral pandemic, food/water safety crisis)       52

                           China’s GDP growth falling below 7.5% per annum              51

                                                                                    %


 Base: All respondents (1,330)
 Source: PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey




                                                                                                          PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey  5
Red numbers, red tape                                             Has regulation gone too far? The US
                                                                                                                                   Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 runs to a
                                                                 Of course, major disruptions aren’t                               massive 884 pages, which makes it
                                                                 the only cause for concern; CEOs are                              23 times longer than Glass-Steagall,
                                                                 nervous about a whole clutch of fiscal                            the reform that followed the Wall
                                                                 and political threats. The prospect of                            Street Crash of 1929.4 And the
                                                                 continuing economic volatility heads                              European Commission (EC) has
                                                                 their worry list, as it has for the past                          generated so much red tape that
                                                                 two years. But 71% – rising to 89% in                             business ministers from Germany,
                                                                 North America – are also concerned                                the Netherlands, Poland and the UK
                                                                 about how debt-laden governments                                  recently wrote a letter urging Brussels
                                                                 will try to address growing deficits.                             to reduce the burden.5 This is in spite
                                                                 And 69% are anxious about the risk of                             of the EC’s efforts of the past years
                                                                 overregulation, now seen as a bigger                              to consolidate, codify and simplify
                                                                 threat than at any time since 2006                                existing legislation and improve the
                                                                 (see Figure 4a).                                                  quality of new legislation.


 Figure 4a: Volatile conditions top the list of economic and political threats, but concerns vary by where CEOs are located
 Q: How concerned are you about the following potential economic and policy threats to your business growth prospects?
 (top four threats global CEOs named)




             88%                                          89%                                           75%                                           66%
                               Africa                                        North America                               Middle East                                 Africa/Asia Pacific




             81% Global                                    71%
                                                                            Global
                                                                                                        69%
                                                                                                                         Global
                                                                                                                                                      61%
                                                                                                                                                                      Global




              56%                                           54%                                         65%                                            50%
                             Middle East                                   Latin America                                 Western Europe                             Latin America



       Uncertain or volatile                      Government response
        economic growth                            to fiscal deficit/debt                            Overregulation                          Capital market volatility



                             Regions most concerned about this threat                          Regions least concerned about this threat


 Base: All respondents (North America=227; Western Europe=312; Asia Pacific=449; Latin America=165; Middle East=32; Africa=50)
 Source: PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey




4	 ‘Over-regulated America’, The Economist (18 February 2012), http://www.economist.com/node/21547789
5	 James Kirkup, ‘Lift the weight of red tape, Vince Cable and allies urge Brussels’, The Daily Telegraph (20 November 2012), http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/yourbusiness/9689165/
   Lift-the-weight-of-red-tape-Vince-Cable-and-allies-urge-Brussels.html


6  PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey
Too much tax, too little talent                               hard.6 Meanwhile, the competition
                                                              for talent has become more fierce than
On the commercial front, CEOs are                             ever before, with the aging of the
particularly anxious about higher                             global population and the changing
taxes and the shortage of key skills                          nature of work.
(see Figure 4b). These are perennial
fears, but current events have brought                        Energy and raw material costs are
them to the fore.                                             also a significant source of unease
                                                              – especially in Africa and Asia Pacific,
In the US, for example, one of the most                       where 68% and 63% of CEOs,
pressing issues in President Obama’s                          respectively, see them as a serious threat.
in-tray is reform of the corporate tax
system. In February 2012, he proposed
reducing the headline tax rate by
eliminating dozens of subsidies, a
move that could hit some companies



 Figure 4b: Volatile conditions top the list of business threats, but concerns vary by where CEOs are located
 Q: How concerned are you about the following potential business threats to your growth prospects?
 (top four threats global CEOs named)




                 65%                                       82%                                         68%                                         57%
                                Asia Pacific                                Africa                                    Africa                                     Asia Pacific




                 62%                                        58%                                         52%                                        49%
                                Global                                     Global                                     Global                                     Global




                 50%                                         45%                                          31%                                       35%
                               Middle East                                Western Europe                            Middle East                                 Latin America



                                                                                                     Energy and                             Shifting consumer
          Increasing tax burden                     Availability of key skills
                                                                                                  raw material costs                        spending/behaviour


                               Regions most concerned about this threat                        Regions least concerned about this threat


 Base: All respondents (Western Europe=312; Asia Pacific=449; Latin America=165; Middle East=32; Africa=50)
 Source: PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey




6	 Jackie Calmes & John H. Cushman Jr., ‘Obama Unveils Proposal to Cut Corporate Tax Rate’, The New York Times (22 February 2012), http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/23/business/economy/
   obama-introduces-plan-to-cut-corporate-tax-rate.html?pagewanted=all


                                                                                                                                     PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey  7
Silver lining for some                                       From risk management                       Some European countries have
It’s not all doom and gloom, though.                         to resilience                              a high level of productivity while
Nearly a fifth of all CEOs in the Middle                     One thing is clear: the threats facing     others have a lower level of
East believe the collapse of the eurozone                    CEOs are coming from all directions;       productivity while they are all
could provide new business opportunities.                    they’re coming harder and faster; and      wrapped up in a ‘monetary corset’
                                                             they’re coming in more subtly varied       subject to different tax regulations.
Similarly, 16% of CEOs in the Middle
                                                             forms. Confronted with this changing       If the eurozone fails, an array of
East and 13% of CEOs in Central and
                                                             risk landscape, CEOs recognise that
Eastern Europe believe China’s slowing                                                                  opportunities may arise, because
                                                             traditional risk management
growth could open new doors. And
                                                             techniques aren’t enough. And, in a        some of the current rigidities
13% of CEOs in North America would                                                                      will disappear.
                                                             stagnating global economy, they know
welcome a squeeze on natural
                                                             they can’t rely on a rising tide to come   Julio Patricio Supervielle, Grupo
resources for the same reason.
                                                             to the rescue.                             Supervielle’s CEO and Banco
In fact, Chinese CEOs are already                                                                       Supervielle’s Chairman, Argentina
                                                             The only way forward is to build
benefiting from the lingering
                                                             organisations that can survive
uncertainty in the eurozone. Our
                                                             and thrive amidst disorder:
research shows that, in 2011, there
                                                             organisations that are agile and
were 61 deals in which mainland
                                                             adaptable, able to cope with
Chinese companies acquired European
                                                             disruption and emerge stronger
companies – up from 11 in 2006. And
                                                             than before.
in the three months to March 2012, the
number of Chinese firms purchasing                           “If you don’t evolve and change, you
European firms surpassed the number                          go backwards. It’s pure physics,” says
of European firms purchasing Chinese                         Larry Fink, Chairman and CEO of asset
firms for the first time in history.7                        management firm BlackRock Inc. “So
                                                             we’ve adapted quite considerably. Even
                                                             this year we changed our entire firm
                                                             architecture to be more adapted
                                                             to our clients, to be more adapted to
                                                             the situation and, importantly, to
                                                             finalise our evolution from a founders’
                                                             culture firm to a global, hopefully
                                                             entrepreneurial firm. And that has
                                                             been a big evolution.”




7	 PwC, ‘China deals: A fresh perspective’ (October 2012).


8  PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey
To be honest, we wouldn’t dare to predict the future. The fact is
the world has been changing a lot more quickly in recent years.
And looking back, we find that many forecasts of the global
economy turned out to be incorrect. In our company, we just
try to do well everything we need to do today. There are so
many things out of our control that we feel it’s unnecessary and
impractical to make too many predictions about the economy.
Instead, we focus on building robust systems that can operate
under a variety of conditions.
Alex C. Lo, President, Uni-President Enterprises Corporation, Taiwan




                                             PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey  9
evidence to suggest that concentrating
                                                                                                                                   your firepower works much better than
                                                                                                                                   adopting a scattergun approach.

                                                                                                                                   One analysis of how 4,700 companies
                                                                                                                                   weathered three previous downturns
                                                                                                                                   shows that the star performers – those
                                                                                                                                   that emerged stronger than ever –

A three-pronged approach                                                                                                           weren’t the obvious ones. They weren’t
                                                                                                                                   the companies that cut fast and
                                                                                                                                   furiously or went on the offensive with
                                                                                                                                   ambitious restructuring programmes,
                                                                                                                                   acquisitions and the like. The former
                                                                                                                                   saw customer satisfaction drop as the
Growth is not necessarily about                                  So what are CEOs doing to make their
                                                                 organisations more resilient in this                              quality of their offerings deteriorated,
revenue growth. In this uncertain                                                                                                  while the latter were stretched much
                                                                 era of ‘stable instability’? Our survey
environment there is more and more                                                                                                 too thin.8
                                                                 shows that they’re taking three
emphasis on bottom line growth.                                  specific approaches:                                              The companies that fared best in terms
Peter Terium, CEO, RWE AG, Germany
                                                                 •	Targeting pockets of opportunity:                               of both sales growth and profits
                                                                   CEOs are focusing on a few well-                                growth were those that mastered the
                                                                   chosen initiatives, primarily in their                          delicate balance between cutting costs
                                                                   existing markets, to stimulate organic                          to survive in the short term and
                                                                   growth. They’re more wary about                                 investing to expand in the longer term.
                                                                   entering new markets or engaging                                They took advantage of depressed
                                                                   in mergers and acquisitions (M&As),                             prices to buy property, plants and
                                                                   and diluting their resources too much.                          equipment that would help them
                                                                                                                                   compete more effectively in the future.
                                                                 •	Concentrating on the customer:                                  And they invested judiciously in R&D
                                                                   CEOs are looking for new ways to                                and marketing to boost their sales and
                                                                   stimulate demand and foster                                     profits when demand rose again.9
                                                                   customer loyalty, such as capitalising
                                                                   on digital marketing platforms and                              The CEOs in our survey are responding
                                                                   involving customers in product/                                 in the same fashion. They’re weighing
                                                                   service development. But they’re also                           up all their options, making a few
                                                                   aiming to keep their R&D costs down                             smart investments and consolidating
                                                                   and make the innovation process                                 their resources to maximise the odds of
                                                                   more efficient.                                                 success. And they’re doing so not
                                                                                                                                   because they think it’s the best way of
                                                                 •	Improving operational                                           surviving a downturn but because they
                                                                   effectiveness: CEOs are balancing                               think it will make their organisations
                                                                   efficiency with agility. They’re trying                         more robust.
                                                                   to cut costs without cutting value or
                                                                   leaving their organisations exposed                             Steve Holliday, CEO of international
                                                                   to external upheavals. They’re also                             energy distributor National Grid Group
                                                                   delegating power more widely and                                Plc., sums up this approach. “It’s very
                                                                   collaborating with organisations                                easy to just go off and think you can do
                                                                   to share resources and develop                                  things that you do well in many
                                                                   new offerings.                                                  countries around the world which
                                                                                                                                   arguably need some of your skills,” he
                                                                 Targeting pockets                                                 warns. But if a company doesn’t have a
                                                                                                                                   clear idea of where it can deliver value
                                                                 of opportunity
                                                                                                                                   and isn’t disciplined in its focus, it risks
                                                                 Two-thirds of all CEOs are focusing on                            extending itself too far. “We’re very,
                                                                 a few carefully selected initiatives                              very conscious of making sure we don’t
                                                                 rather than nurturing numerous                                    overreach ourselves.”
                                                                 different ideas and then weeding out
                                                                 the weakest. That’s easier said than
                                                                 done because every business unit
                                                                 naturally thinks its plans should take
                                                                 precedence. But there’s considerable




8	 Ranjay Gulati, Nitin Nohria & Franz Wohlgezogen, ‘Roaring Out of Recession’, Harvard Business Review 88, no. 3 (March 2010): 62–69.
9	Ibid.


10  PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey
Homing in on organic growth
So exactly which pockets of
opportunity are CEOs targeting?
Nearly half are pinning their hopes
on organic growth in their existing
markets (see Figure 5). Only 17%
plan to complete M&As or form new                       Figure 5: CEOs are pursuing the opportunities for organic growth in existing markets
strategic alliances. And only 25% are
                                                        Q: Of these potential opportunities for business growth, which one is the main opportunity in
turning to new product and service                      the next 12 months?
development.

At first glance, then, it might look as
if CEOs are hunkering down and
waiting for better times. But CEOs also
know that, if they want to grow their
business, they’ll have to go where the
                                                                 32%  Organic growth
                                                                                                   25%
                                                                        in existing
growth is – and four distinct economic
clusters are emerging (see Figure 6).
                                                                     domestic market                  New product
                                                                                                       or service
                                                                                                      development
                                                                                                                                  17%
                                                                                                                                New M&A/joint


                                                                           17%
The troubled states of Southern Europe                                                                                         ventures/strategic
                                                                                                                                    alliances
are contracting. Meanwhile, Australia,

                                                                                                             8%
Japan, North America and the more                                          Organic growth
                                                                             in existing
robust members of the European Union                                       foreign market
are showing signs of recovery, albeit
rather shaky.                                                                                           New operation(s)
                                                                                                        in foreign markets
The growth countries are also
diverging. China and India are still                    Base: All respondents (1,330)
                                                        Note: 1% of CEOs responded ‘Don’t know/Refused’
expanding rapidly, but the pace is                      Source: PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey
slowing down. Conversely, some parts
of Southeast Asia and Latin America
are picking up speed. This pattern is
expected to continue for the rest of
the decade.


 Figure 6: Two faster and two slower economic lanes are developing


  The global growth leaderboard is changing

      Growing but susceptible to disruption                                    Growing and accelerating
      Poland                 3.4%         France                 1.2%          Indonesia              6.2%
      Australia              3.1%         Japan                  0.9%          Brazil                 4.0%
      Canada                 2.3%         United Kingdom         2.1%          South Africa           3.6%
      United States          2.4%         Netherlands            1.1%
      Germany                1.3%         Ireland                2.2%




      Struggling to grow                                                       Growing but decelerating
      Italy                  0.3%                                              China                  7.3%          South Korea            3.6%
      Spain                  0.9%                                              India                  6.6%          Mexico                 3.7%
      Portugal               0.5%                                              Saudi Arabia           4.2%          Russia                 3.8%
      Greece                 0.6%                                              Turkey                 5.1%




                      Aggregates                    Eurozone     1.0%         Global (market rates)       3.0%

   All percentages are projected 2013-15 average growth rates

 Sources and methodology: PwC analysis, national statistical authorities, Thomson Datastream and IMF. The tables above form our main scenario projections and
 are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties.




                                                                                                                 PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey  11
With growth rates among both mature                             And a growing number of CEOs are                                 CEO opinion is divided on Europe,
and growth economies diverging, and                             looking to Africa. For example, Nestlé                           though some CEOs see promise,
with highly unique opportunities and                            sees Africa as one of the biggest                                including those countries that are
threats in each market, CEOs are                                opportunities for the food industry in                           struggling to grow. “People there [in
looking for specific opportunities in                           the next 10-20 years.15 Dr. João Bento,                          Western Europe] have decided that
all clusters.                                                   CEO of Portugal-based international                              they should work less and retire earlier.
                                                                technology provider Efacec Capital                               And that may not be affordable. So I
It’s not surprising that five of CEOs’ top                      SGSP SA says, “…we also have a                                   think that Western Europe has a
ten overseas destinations are growth                            presence in growth economies, such                               serious structural issue.” says Seymur
markets, nor that four of these are the                         as Latin America, Southern Africa,                               Tari, CEO of Turkish private equity
BRIC economies (see Figure 7). But the                          Magreb and also in India.”                                       firm Turkven.
fact that Indonesia is now in the top ten
– for the first time – shows that CEOs                          The US, meanwhile, remains second                                Yves Serra, President and CEO of Swiss
have been quick to spot more subtle shifts                      on CEOs’ list of top ten overseas                                industrial components manufacturer
in the distribution of economic power.                          destinations, as it did last year.                               Georg Fischer Ltd., is more positive.
                                                                All five of the mature economies on                              “We focus our efforts on where we
Indonesia is the fastest of the                                 the list are growing, albeit susceptible                         see growth. This includes Asia and
accelerating markets, with real GDP                             to disruption. These markets, which                              America, at least for our products, and
growth forecast to increase by 6.2%                             comprise five of the G7 countries, are                           also some sectors in Europe. …So the
a year for the next three years.10                              quite simply too big to ignore: the US,                          picture is not just black and white;
By 2050, Indonesia’s economy in                                 Japan and Germany are projected to                               there are definitely pockets of growth
purchasing power parity (PPP) terms                             remain among the world’s ten biggest                             in Europe as well.”
could be bigger than that of Germany,                           economies, in PPP terms, in 2050,
France or the UK.11 Its stock market has                        while Canada and the UK are expected                             The traffic isn’t going in only one
soared 12.6% in the past 12 months                              to remain in the top 20.16                                       direction, though. CEOs in the mature
alone.12 And the government has                                                                                                  markets may be looking to various
launched a major programme to                                   Furthermore, although the E7 countries                           growth markets, but CEOs in growth
improve the country’s overburdened                              are set to overtake the G7 countries in                          markets are equally prepared to go
infrastructure.13                                               terms of GDP size and growth by 2050,                            further afield: 33% of CEOs in Asia
                                                                they are still expected to lag far behind                        Pacific and 19% of those in the Middle
Other emerging markets are also being                           the G7 countries in terms of GDP per                             East are targeting the US, for example,
prioritised, like Mexico and Thailand,                          capita.17 So large, mature markets will                          while 27% of CEOs in Latin America
which are close on the heels of CEOs’                           still remain attractive for higher valued                        and 18% of those in Africa are
top ten markets. Mexico is particularly                         products and services, given their more                          targeting China.
notable – it could become the world’s 7th                       affluent consumers.
largest economy by 2050 in PPP terms.14

 Figure 7: Half of CEOs’ top ten countries are growth markets
 Q: Which three countries, excluding the country in which you are based, do you consider most important for your overall growth prospects over
 the next 12 months? (maximum of 3 responses)




                                              5%                                           UK                                8%
                                                     Canada                         6%                                               Russia

                                                                                          12%
                                        23%                                                        Germany
                                                                                                                                   31%               5%
                                                                                                                                                            Japan
                                                     US
                                                                                                                         10%                    China
                                                                                                                                  India
                                                                                                                                           7%
                                                                                                                                                  Indonesia
                                                              15%
                                                                        Brazil


Base: All respondents (1,330)
Source: PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey


10	 PwC projections.
11	 PwC, ‘World in 2050’ (January 2013).	
12	 Daniel Inman, ‘Southeast Asia’s Growing Appeal’, The Wall Street Journal (3 December 2012), http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324020804578151761632189982.
    html#mod=djemITPE_t
13	 Eric Bellman, ‘Indonesia Boosts Infrastructure Investment’, The Wall Street Journal (7 December 2012), http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323501404578165794187322794.html
14	 PwC, ‘World in 2050’ (January 2013).
15	 Caroline Scott-Thomas, ‘Nestlé eyes big food industry opportunities in Africa’, Food Navigator (26 November 2012), http://www.foodnavigator.com/Financial-Industry/Nestle-eyes-big-food-
    industry-opportunities-in-Africa
16	 PwC, ‘World in 2050’ (January 2013).
17	Ibid.


12  PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey
…I think what we have to do ... is look for the growth
opportunities very carefully. The easy route is to say, well
that’s an emerging market so that’s got to be good, that’s
a mature market, that’s got to be tougher, but ... I think
you’ve got to drill down to see where the growth really is.
... and there is growth in every market – but you’ve got to
go granular.
Alison Cooper, Chief Executive, Imperial Tobacco Group,
United Kingdom




                                           PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey  13
Concentrating on
the customer
Irrespective of the markets they’re in,
CEOs have one overwhelming goal: to
grow their customer base. Indeed, 51%
say it’s a top three investment priority
for the coming year.                                            Figure 8: Not all growth markets are consumer-led economies

That’s not surprising. What’s changed
                                                                                                                                     30
is the fact that CEOs are now trying to
                                                                                                                                               Producers                  Consumers and producers
attract more customers while focusing                                                                                                                      Nigeria




                                                                            (proxied by growth in number of people of working age)
                                                                                                                                     25




                                                                              Projected production potential over 2011-20 period
on a smaller, more targeted range
of growth strategies – no easy task in
                                                                                                                                     20         Saudi Arabia
the current economic climate. The
recession has hit some businesses and
                                                                                                                                     15                 Malaysia
consumers badly, particularly those in                                                                                                                                             India
richer countries. Between 2000 and                                                                                                                  Mexico
                                                                                                                                     10
2011, consumer spending in the                                                                                                                                               Indonesia
mature markets increased by just                                                                                                                           Brazil
                                                                                                                                      5
2.1% a year. In the growth markets,                                                                                                               South Africa                      Vietnam
by contrast, it increased by a much
                                                                                                                                      0
healthier 5.7%.18                                                                                                                                                                             China

Very different consumption volumes                                                                                                    -5         South Korea
and patterns in different markets add
to the challenge. Though the growth                                                                                                  -10
                                                                                                                                                            Russia
economies have some common                                                                                                                                                                 Consumers
characteristics, they also differ in key                                                                                             -15
                                                                                                                                           0           20           40          60          80        100%
respects – and these differences are
                                                                                                                                                  Projected consumption potential over 2011-20 period
likely to intensify as they continue to                                                                                                                    (proxied by GDP per capita growth)
develop. Some growth countries are
primarily producers rather than                                 Note: Dotted lines represent average values
consumers, for example (see Figure 8).                          Source: PwC analysis, UN population figures.


The purchasing power and preferences
of consumers can also vary a lot
within, as well as between, countries,                         In fact, nearly half the CEOs we polled                                                                 We keep close track of the real
and adapting to such disparate tastes                          see shifts in consumer buying patterns                                                                  estate sector in order to remain on
requires a deep understanding of the                           as a serious business threat. And they
                                                                                                                                                                       the cutting edge of all advanced
local environment. “It all starts with                         realise that being able to respond
the consumer – a rich and robust                               quickly and effectively to such changes
                                                                                                                                                                       trends in the construction of
understanding of what they want,                               is crucial.                                                                                             buildings, energy efficient
where they’re going, but, most                                                                                                                                         technologies and environmentally
importantly, what they want in the                             Dr. Weihua Ma, President and CEO                                                                        friendly materials. We introduce
future,” Douglas D. Tough, Chairman                            of China Merchants Bank Co. Ltd.,
                                                               puts the position particularly well:
                                                                                                                                                                       ready-to-move-in residential
and CEO of International Flavors &
                                                               “We commercial banks are service                                                                        apartments in our buildings in
Fragrances, Inc., observes.
                                                               institutions, so changes in customer                                                                    response to client suggestions.
“We interview consumers all around                             demands are extremely important for                                                                     Valentina Stanovova, Senior Vice-
the world to make sure we have a                               us. Just as a chef in a restaurant will                                                                 President, Capital Group, Russia
robust database, and we don’t                                  lose his job if his cooking cannot satisfy
extrapolate necessarily from any one                           his customers, a service institution will
country to get a global view.” But there                       not exist if it has no customers.”
are obvious risks for multinationals, he
adds. “…they have to adapt properly
to local needs.” The competition from
local and regional rivals is also
increasing all the time.




18	 PwC, ‘Introducing the PwC Global Consumer Index’ (October 2012), http://press.pwc.com/GLOBAL/global-consumer-spending-slowdown-eases.-pwc-releases-first-ever-global-consumer-index-
    gci/s/bc11166a-cd72-4ea7-93fa-c167d10a5cb5


14  PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey
Getting customers onside                                      In terms of the importance of our different stakeholders, our customers
So it’s no wonder that new strategies to                      are absolutely the most important. If we don’t give them a good service
stimulate demand and foster customer                          – affordable tariffs, high reliability, good customer service – then we know
loyalty play a big part in CEOs’ plans                        we are going to be in trouble.
for the next 12 months. A full 82%                            Andrew Bradler, CEO, CLP Holdings Ltd., Hong Kong, China
anticipate making changes on this
score – and 31% have major changes in
mind (see Figure 9).

One obvious measure is to take                                Engaging with customers isn’t just
advantage of the new marketing                                about communicating with them,
platforms now emerging. Most                                  though. It’s also about working with
organisations have traditionally used                         them to co-create new offerings, and
market research, competitive                                  helping them use the products and
benchmarking and the like. But these                          services they’ve bought more enjoyably
sources of information can only show                          or effectively. Boeing has perfected the
how customers behave en masse.                                first of these two approaches: it
                                                              consults airlines and frequent flyers
That’s not the case in the digital arena.
                                                              alike when it’s designing new planes.19
Mining social media sites, blogs,
                                                              Digital music service Spotify has
consumer reviews and other such data
                                                              perfected the second by inviting
sources helps an organisation find out
                                                              subscribers to customise their playlists,
what individual customers think and
                                                              which enhances the product offering
want. Equipped with these insights, it
                                                              for them and for others.
can then develop products and services
for specific customer segments and
craft more personalised marketing
messages – as well as enhancing the
brand. This may explain why three-
quarters of CEOs say they’re increasing
their technology investments.


 Figure 9: Attracting – and keeping – more customers is a key priority
 Q: To what extent do you anticipate changes at your company over the next 12 months?

                                                                                                                                               Don’t know/refused
               Customer growth/retention/loyalty strategies                          17       51                  31                                     1%

                                 Strategies for managing talent                      23       54                   23                                    1%

                          Increase in technology investments                         25       54                   21                                    1%

                                         Organisational structure                    26       52                  22                                     1%

                    Increase in R&D and innovation capacity                          32       50                 17                                      1%
                                                                                                                    0                                         100

                                                                                          %

                                                                        No change             Some change           A major change

 Base: All respondents (1,330)
 Source: PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey




19	 Bryan Urbick, ‘Innovation Through Co-creation: Consumers Can be Creative’, Innovation Management (26 March 2012), http://www.innovationmanagement.se/2012/03/26/innovation-
    through-co-creation-consumers-can-be-creative/


                                                                                                                                  PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey  15
Making the most of disruption                Finland-based international                 Human capacity is key to any
                                             communications and information              company’s growth. The second
Yet innovation – generally one of the
                                             technology company Nokia is a case
most important factors in attracting                                                     important factor is R&D.
                                             in point. “…our focus is very much
and retaining customers – is surprisingly                                                Karen Agustiawan, President Director
                                             on disruption – disrupting ourselves,
low down the schedule for many CEOs.                                                     and CEO, PT Pertamina (Persero),
                                             disrupting the trends that have been
It comes fifth on their list of investment                                               Indonesia
                                             established in the industry and moving
priorities for this year. And though
                                             forward with new strategies, new
67% plan to increase their company’s
                                             products and new ways of managing
R&D capacity, only 17% intend to
                                             our organisation in order to keep pace
make major alterations.
                                             and indeed accelerate the pace beyond
The drive for efficiency explains why        others.” says President and CEO
some CEOs are reluctant to invest more       Stephen A Elop.
in R&D, but a closer look at the data
                                             “One of the most important ways that        …we want more than just satisfied
also shows marked regional variations.
                                             we see to drive disruption is to focus on   consumers. We want to delight
CEOs in Africa, Asia Pacific and Latin
                                             unique and differentiating consumer
America are more likely to be beefing                                                    them – to go beyond their
                                             experiences. That’s a fancy way of
up their company’s R&D than those in
                                             saying, ‘how can we help you do
                                                                                         expectations. We are seen as a
the rest of the world – possibly because                                                 company that delivers excellence
                                             something you couldn’t do before?’
the growth countries are still in                                                        in terms of customer service.
                                             … when you look at the patterns
catch-up mode.
                                             of disruption, particularly in the area     But our main innovations are
Nevertheless, CEOs know that                 of technology, it’s often something         our [retail] collections and how
innovation isn’t possible without            relatively focused, relatively simple
                                                                                         quickly we get them to market.
investment. That’s why a number              that allows you as a person to do
                                             something you couldn’t do before,           José Galló, CEO and Director,
of leading companies are adopting                                                        Lojas Renner, Brazil
a more imaginative approach to the           or to do it faster or more efficiently.
innovation process itself, whether           And it’s those types of innovations that
it’s incremental changes or more             we’re focused on today,” he explains.
fundamental changes to their business
models, in order to become more agile
and responsive to competitive threats
or shifts in customer demand.




16  PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey
It all starts with the consumer – a rich and robust
understanding of what they want, where they’re going,
but, most importantly, what they want in the future.
Douglas D. Tough, Chairman and CEO, International Flavors
& Fragrances, Inc., US




                                          PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey  17
Improving operational                               objectives. As Artem Konstandyan,                    I think the underlying idea of
effectiveness                                       CEO of Russia’s Promsvyazbank (PSB),                 trying to reduce cost in whatever
                                                    notes, “Downsizing is not a goal in
Under pressure to meet demanding                                                                         we do actually makes us become
                                                    itself. We’re trying to streamline our
customer growth targets within tightly              operations and improve staff
                                                                                                         creative and innovative.
defined investment parameters, CEOs                 performance.”                                        Aireen Omar, CEO,
know they’ll have to change the way                                                                      AirAsia Berhad, Malaysia
their companies function. Nearly half               An example? Many companies
say improving operational                           discovered in the aftermath of the
                                                                                                         We believe the underlying growth
effectiveness is one of their top three             tsunamis in Southeast Asia and Japan
                                                    that the quest to maximise the
                                                                                                         trends will be slow. So we have to
investment priorities this year.
                                                    efficiency of their supply chains had                just be better than the competition
Anders Nyrén, President and CEO of                  severely impaired their ability to cope              in these markets, and that is also
global investment firm Industrivärden               with disruption. Today’s CEOs have                   one of the reasons why we have
AB, based in Sweden, spoke for many                 clearly learned from that experience:                to keep costs under control.
CEOs when he told us: “Given that the               50% are diversifying their supply
global economy and the global pace                                                                       Martin Blessing, Chairman of the
                                                    chains and working with suppliers
of life are getting faster in all aspects,                                                               Board of Managing Directors,
                                                    in a wider range of territories.
one needs to become more agile and                                                                       Commerzbank AG, Germany
efficient about everything – including              CEOs are also wary about
running a company. It’s essential that              inadvertently cutting value in the                   …we have had to look seriously at
you streamline operations and become                course of cutting costs – and slashing
                                                                                                         how we manage our business. And,
leaner wherever you can, so as to be                the workforce is one action that can
able to react more quickly to changing              certainly backfire. This probably                    we have had to learn how to be
market conditions.”                                 explains why 25% have kept their                     prepared to disrupt ourselves. So,
                                                    company’s headcount the same for                     rather than getting too rigid and
Finding the right balance                           the past 12 months, while 48% have                   bureaucratic and too procedures-
                                                    actually increased it. It may explain,               driven, sometimes we’ve had to step
Cost-cutting is still high on the agenda:
                                                    too, why 77% of CEOs plan to revise
77% of CEOs have undertaken                                                                              outside of ourselves, but yet within
                                                    their strategies for managing talent
cost-saving initiatives in the past                                                                      ourselves, by creating new units
                                                    in the coming year; they realise they
12 months and 70% plan to do so in                                                                       to challenge the way that we do
                                                    won’t be able to attract and retain new
the next 12 months (see Figure 10).
But they’re not wielding the knife
                                                    customers without well-trained, highly               business and to extend that
                                                    motivated employees.                                 learning to the traditional parts
indiscriminately; they’re trying to
balance efficiency with other strategic                                                                  of our business.
                                                                                                         Alex Arena, Group Managing Director,
                                                                                                         HKT Ltd., Hong Kong, China


 Figure 10: Cost-cutting tops the list of restructuring activities CEOs plan to put in place in 2013
 Q: Which, if any, of the following restructuring activities do you plan to initiate in the coming 12 months?




                      70%                                            47%                                        31%
                         Implement a                                 Enter into a new                             Outsource a
                        cost-reduction                               strategic alliance                         business process
                           initiative                                 or joint venture                             or function




 Base: All respondents (1,330)
 Source: PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey




18  PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey
Figure 11: Involving less senior managers in strategic decisions is seen as most effective in preparing them for leadership
 Q: Do you deploy any of the following to develop your leadership pipeline?
 Q: If so, how effective are they?
           100

                                 % of CEOs who deploy the following to develop their leadership pipeline
                                                                                                                                                        79
            80
                                                                                                              69                   71
                                                                                         62
                                                                    61                                                                                                 % of CEOs who
            60                                 58                                                                                                                      don’t rate their
                                                                                                                                                                       initiatives as
       %
                                                                                                                                                                       highly effective

            40            37

                                                                                                                                                        33
            20                                                                                                                     24
                                                                    22                   22
                                                                                                              19
                          11                   13
              0
                     Shadowing           Programmes           Encouraging          Rotations to         Dedicated               Active             Involving
                       senior            to encourage        global mobility         different           executive           succession        managers below
                     executives             diversity              and              functions/         development            planning,           board level
                                             among            international         challenges          programme             including          in strategic
                                           business            experience                                                    identifying       decision-making
                                             leaders                                                                           multiple
                                                                                                                             successors
                  Effectiveness of methods deployed to develop leadership pipeline
                     Very effective         Somewhat effective            Not very effective         Not at all effective         Don’t know/refused

 Base: All respondents (1,330)
 Source: PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey



Putting power in more hands                                       That said, there are pronounced                                   I prefer a management style based
                                                                  regional variations in behaviour.                                 on openness and cooperation at
In fact, some CEOs are going
                                                                  CEOs in North America are far more
considerably further: they’re devolving                                                                                             every level; one that does not
                                                                  likely to encourage their employees to
power more widely to make their
                                                                  participate in strategic decisions than
                                                                                                                                    necessarily obey or respect
organisations more agile and responsive.                                                                                            hierarchy at all times. I believe in
                                                                  those based in Central and Eastern
Although only 31% encourage all their                                                                                               leadership that can stay flexible.
                                                                  Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin America.
staff to get involved in strategic
                                                                  They’re also more likely to involve                               Sándor Csányi, Chairman and CEO,
planning, 79% include managers
                                                                  middle managers.                                                  OTP Bank Plc., Hungary
below board level in such decisions as
part of the process of developing their                           These variations obviously reflect
leadership pipelines. And most CEOs                               cross-cultural differences in how
think it’s the best way of nurturing                              decisions are made. CEOs in cultures
their successors (see Figure 11).                                 that are relatively egalitarian typically
                                                                  adopt a more participative approach
“We don’t have one way of doing things
                                                                  than those in cultures that are
nor do we have one point of authority
                                                                  relatively hierarchical.20 But whereas
to which all questions have to be
                                                                  participative management can improve
directed,” says Carl Sheldon, CEO of
                                                                  profitability in less hierarchical
United Arab Emirates-based global
                                                                  cultures, it can worsen profitability in
energy company TAQA. “Instead, our
                                                                  more hierarchical cultures.21 So using
approach is to create a culture that
                                                                  different decision-making styles in
empowers people and – within the
                                                                  different cultures makes good
context of a set of shared values –
                                                                  business sense.
provides them with the freedom to
take action. That gives you tremendous
strength, flexibility, and agility.”

20	Pankaj Ghemawat & Sebastian Reiche, ‘National Cultural Differences and Multinational Business’, Globalization Note Series, 2011.
21	 Karen L. Newman & Stanley D. Nollen, ‘Culture and Congruence: The Fit Between Management Practices and National Culture’, Journal of International Business Studies 27, No. 4 (4th Quarter,
    1996), pp. 753-779.


                                                                                                                                           PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey  19
Sharing as well as buying                                     We believe the dip in M&A is being                           Our innovation comes from
                                                              driven by current levels of uncertainty                      globally collaborative efforts and a
It’s not just the way management
                                                              rather than a major change in
and employees interact within                                                                                              lot of encouragement from within.
                                                              emphasis. But we’re also seeing a move
organisations that’s changing, though;
                                                              by businesses towards ‘sharing’, by
                                                                                                                           It is also about empowerment,
it’s also the way organisations interact                                                                                   decentralisation and
                                                              forming partnerships or networks.
with each other. Nearly half the CEOs                                                                                      encouragement to come up with
                                                              Inspired by companies like Amazon
we polled aim to form a new strategic
                                                              and Apple, CEOs recognise that they’re                       new ideas for R&D programmes
alliance or joint venture during the
                                                              no longer confined to the traditional                        and product development.
next 12 months, which is broadly
                                                              options of ‘build or buy’.
in line with the pattern for the past                                                                                      A.M. Naik, Executive Chairman,
four years.                                                   Collaborating with other organisations                       Larsen & Toubro Limited, India
                                                              in the same or adjacent industries
At the same time, global M&A activity
                                                              provides new opportunities for
has declined sharply since the start of
                                                              generating business by co-developing
the global financial crisis, although
                                                              products and services, taking
CEOs in some sectors, like mining,
                                                              advantage of a common infrastructure
power and utilities and communications,
                                                              and sharing customers. It also carries
are much more likely to be prioritising
                                                              much less risk than an M&A because
investment in M&A in the coming year.
                                                              it doesn’t require a significant upfront
Even so, the aggregate value of the                           investment and doesn’t entail spending
deals completed in the first half of                          several years integrating the target
2012 was less than half the value of                          company to realise the gains.
the deals completed in the first half
                                                              That’s not to say there’s no place for
of 2007.22 Further evidence of how
                                                              M&As. On the contrary, one study
cautious CEOs have become is the
                                                              shows that firms using multiple modes
fact that three-quarters of the deals
                                                              to obtain new resources were much
conducted in 2012 were cash-only
                                                              more likely to survive over a five-year
transactions.23
                                                              period than those that relied solely on
Yet, some firms have plenty of money                          alliances, solely on M&As or solely on
in their piggy banks. US companies are                        internal development.27
sitting on about $1.7 trillion in cash
                                                              But partnering with other
reserves.24 Canadian companies hold
                                                              organisations, as distinct from
nearly $300 billion.25 And British
                                                              purchasing them, does carry
businesses hold another £720 billion.26
                                                              considerable organisational implications.
Nearly two-thirds of the CEOs who
                                                              The qualities needed to form a
participated in our survey also intend
                                                              successful network are quite different
to boost their capital spending over the
                                                              from those needed to pull off an
next 12 months, which suggests that
                                                              acquisition. Key among these is the
they have enough cash to finance their
                                                              high degree of collaboration that’s
plans or are confident of raising the
                                                              required to make an alliance work.28
funds. So, if money isn’t the issue,
what is?




22	mergermarket H1 round-up report (July 2012).
23	mergermarket 2012 round-up report (January 2013).
24	Federal Reserve, ‘Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States’ (June 2012).
25	‘Dead money’, The Economist (3 November 2012), http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21565621-cash-has-been-piling-up-companies’-balance-sheets-crisis-dead
26	Michael Izza, ‘Business Confidence research suggests recovery has not yet taken hold’, ICAEW (5 November 2012), http://www.ion.icaew.com/MoorgatePlace/25687
27	 Laurence Capron & Will Mitchell, Build, Borrow, or Buy: Solving the Growth Dilemma (Harvard Business Review Press, 2012).
28	PwC, ‘Creating successful alliances and joint ventures’ (2012).


20  PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey
One key point of our strategic advantage is the capability
to ‘orchestrate’ the production and engineering value
chain we create in partnership with other companies.
That gives us the ability to scale up or scale down quickly
and efficiently. We try to ensure our organisational
structure is sufficiently fluid so that we can respond
quickly to changes in demand.
Pertti Korhonen, President and CEO, Outotec Oyj, Finland




                                           PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey  21
Etude mondiale de PwC sur les priorités des dirigeants d'entreprises pour 2013
Etude mondiale de PwC sur les priorités des dirigeants d'entreprises pour 2013
Etude mondiale de PwC sur les priorités des dirigeants d'entreprises pour 2013
Etude mondiale de PwC sur les priorités des dirigeants d'entreprises pour 2013
Etude mondiale de PwC sur les priorités des dirigeants d'entreprises pour 2013
Etude mondiale de PwC sur les priorités des dirigeants d'entreprises pour 2013
Etude mondiale de PwC sur les priorités des dirigeants d'entreprises pour 2013
Etude mondiale de PwC sur les priorités des dirigeants d'entreprises pour 2013
Etude mondiale de PwC sur les priorités des dirigeants d'entreprises pour 2013
Etude mondiale de PwC sur les priorités des dirigeants d'entreprises pour 2013
Etude mondiale de PwC sur les priorités des dirigeants d'entreprises pour 2013

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Etude mondiale de PwC sur les priorités des dirigeants d'entreprises pour 2013

  • 1. 16th Annual Global CEO Survey The disruptive decade p3/ What worries CEOs most? p5/ A three-pronged approach p10/ It’s a question of trust p22 Dealing with disruption Adapting to survive and thrive 1,330 CEOs in 68 countries 36% of CEOs are very confident about their growth prospects See page 3 82% of CEOs plan to change customer strategies in 2013 See page 15 www.pwc.com/ceosurvey
  • 2. During the past decade, we’ve seen economic volatility and disruption escalate to arguably unprecedented levels. In a globalised world – one where countries, economies and companies are more interconnected and interdependent than ever before – risks that once seemed improbable and even remote have become the norm. For business leaders across the world, ‘expect the unexpected’ has become the mantra. To navigate through this environment, The focus on trust also goes much companies need to develop resilience. Preface This combines an ability to ride out the immediate impact of shocks with a further. In the post-crisis world, trust is at a premium. But it’s also an essential component of the ongoing relationship long-term capacity to adapt to constantly between an organisation and all its changing conditions. We’re helping stakeholders – and thereby an more and more of our clients achieve important pillar of resilience. With this blend of qualities not only to survive social media giving a voice to evermore through new and emerging challenges, diverse groups of stakeholders, CEOs but to thrive in this environment. are recognising the need to secure a In my view, the shift to resilience helps stronger social mandate by rebuilding to explain the widening gap between public trust. From promoting an ethical CEOs’ levels of confidence in their culture to increasing workforce organisations’ one-year and three-year diversity and reducing environmental outlooks. This year’s survey shows that impacts, they’re pursuing a wide array just 36% of CEOs are ‘very confident’ of initiatives to simultaneously support about their business’s growth prospects their growth strategies, establish the over the next 12 months, down from right mandate and boost resilience. 40% in 2012 and 48% in 2011 (see My sincere thanks go to the more than Figure 1). In contrast, the proportion 1,300 CEOs from 68 countries who confident about growth over the coming shared their thinking with us. Their three years has held up much better. active and candid participation is the This suggests that leaders believe their single greatest factor in the success of organisations can be resilient by the PwC Annual Global CEO Survey, rolling with the short-term blows while now in its 16th year. We greatly reshaping for longer-term growth. appreciate our respondents’ willingness What strategies are CEOs adopting to – indeed eagerness – to free up their become more resilient? Our findings valuable time to help make this survey highlight three common approaches. as comprehensive as possible. I’m First, they’re targeting specific pockets especially grateful to the 33 CEOs who of opportunity for organic growth, sat down with us in late 2012 to hold avoiding spreading their resources too deeper and more detailed conversations. thinly. Second, they’re maintaining a You can see their verbatim comments clear focus on the customer, taking throughout this report. active steps to stimulate demand, loyalty and innovation in their customer base – through mechanisms ranging from digital marketing platforms to collaborative R&D. And third, they’re fine-tuning their operational effectiveness by reducing Dennis M. Nally costs without cutting value and Chairman, PricewaterhouseCoopers collaborating with trusted partners. International
  • 3. Contents The disruptive decade 3 What worries CEOs most? 5 A three-pronged approach 10 Targeting pockets of opportunity 10 Concentrating on the customer 14 Improving operational effectiveness 18 It’s a question of trust 22 CEO survey participants 28 Research methodology and key contacts 30 PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey  1
  • 4. I think the level of external threats has increased with every passing decade. And as the pace of change has increased, organisations like ours have to be a lot more flexible than we might have been in the past. Shikha Sharma, Managing Director and CEO, Axis Bank Limited, India 2  PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey
  • 5. global economy will stay the same for The disruptive decade the next 12 months and only 28% believe it will shrink. In 2012, by contrast, 48% were convinced the global economy would contract. But economic plateaux aren’t exactly The global economic outlook is grounds for cheer. That’s why short- certainly enough to test even the term confidence about the prospects strongest enterprises. The eurozone for revenue growth has continued is still mired in recession and the US falling (see Figure 1). CEOs in Western economy is forecast to expand by just Europe are especially nervous. Only 2.2% this year.1 The situation in some 22% feel very confident they can of the growth markets is also getting increase their company’s revenues in harder, as the slowdown in the BRIC the coming 12 months, compared with economies demonstrates. 53% of CEOs in the Middle East and Latin America. While market conditions in many countries are still very difficult, CEOs are more positive about the prognosis than they were last year: 52% think the Figure 1: CEO confidence has gone up and down sharply over the past decade Q: How confident are you about your company’s prospects for revenue growth over the next 12 months? 60% Very confident about company’s prospects for revenue growth over the next 12 months 52% 50% 50 48% 41% 40 40% 31% 36% 30 26% 31% 20 21% 10 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Base: All respondents (2013=1,330; 2012=1,258; 2011=1,201; 2010=1,198; 2009=1,124; 2008=1,150; 2007=1,084; 2006 (not asked); 2005=1,324; 2004=1,386; 2003=989) Source: PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey 1 PwC, ‘Global Economy Watch’ (December 2012). PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey  3
  • 6. The prevailing mood is, as usual, …people always tend to think somewhat more optimistic when it that a tough economic situation comes to the longer-term outlook: is the sign of a ‘new normal’ 46% of CEOs are very confident about expanding over the next three years. and, conversely, that a robust That said, CEOs in most parts of the world economy will last forever. world are much less positive than But economic conditions their peers in the E7 markets (46% always alternate. versus 58%).2 Yasuchika Hasegawa, President and It’s easy to understand why they’re CEO, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company so cautious. Far-reaching changes Ltd., Japan are happening – and they’re also happening faster than before. Between When people ask me, ‘What’s going 1970 and 2011, the number of man- made disasters nearly tripled, while to happen in the next five years?’, the number of natural disasters surged I throw up my hands and say sevenfold.3 The past decade alone has ‘I have no idea and neither do you.’ seen a number of major disruptions How do you cope with that degree (see Figure 2). of uncertainty? Well, I think, first, In short, improbable risks aren’t so by having the right attitude about improbable now; they’re becoming the process of change and reinvention. the norm in a more uncertain world. Peter Tortorici, CEO, GroupM And CEOs everywhere are feeling Entertainment Global, US the heat. Figure 2: Major disruptions over the last decade Indonesia earthquake iPhone launch Global financial crash Northern Rock bank run (UK) US-led invasion of Iraq Lehman Brothers’ collapse SARS epidemic US, UK and European bank bailouts Wenchuan earthquake (China) Southeast Asian tsunami WHO declares swine flu pandemic Eurozone sovereign debt crisis and first Greek bailout Hurricane New Zealand and Japan Katrina earthquake and tsunami (US) Hurricane Sandy (US) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: PwC 2 E7 markets: China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey. 3 Swiss Re, sigma No 2/2012. 4  PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey
  • 7. What worries CEOs most? The global community of regulators Today’s CEOs are concerned about a – as well as the political classes – are wide range of potential and ongoing threats to their business growth keen on ensuring the stability of the prospects. These include catastrophic financial system. And that implies events, economic and policy threats a completely new order, a new set of and commercial threats. rules to play by. In these cases, it’s not uncommon to wind up in a Major disruptions situation of regulatory overreach. We asked CEOs about their Piyush Gupta, CEO and Director, organisation’s ability to cope with the DBS Group, Singapore potential impact of various disruptive scenarios. The majority thought their organisations would be negatively affected, with major social unrest being cause for the greatest concern (see Figure 3). Indeed, CEOs are far more concerned about this than they are about a slowdown in China, possibly because they’ve already factored the latter into their calculations. Figure 3: Major social unrest tops the list of scenarios that would have the worst impact on CEOs’ organisations Q: How well would your organisation be able to cope with the following scenarios, if they happened within the next 12 months? (respondents who answered ‘negative impact’) Major social unrest in the country in which you are based 75 Recession in the US 67 Cyber attack or major disruption of the internet 63 A natural disaster disrupting a major trading/manufacturing hub 56 A breakup of the eurozone 53 Military or trade tensions affecting access to natural resources 53 Health crisis (e.g. viral pandemic, food/water safety crisis) 52 China’s GDP growth falling below 7.5% per annum 51 % Base: All respondents (1,330) Source: PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey  5
  • 8. Red numbers, red tape Has regulation gone too far? The US Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 runs to a Of course, major disruptions aren’t massive 884 pages, which makes it the only cause for concern; CEOs are 23 times longer than Glass-Steagall, nervous about a whole clutch of fiscal the reform that followed the Wall and political threats. The prospect of Street Crash of 1929.4 And the continuing economic volatility heads European Commission (EC) has their worry list, as it has for the past generated so much red tape that two years. But 71% – rising to 89% in business ministers from Germany, North America – are also concerned the Netherlands, Poland and the UK about how debt-laden governments recently wrote a letter urging Brussels will try to address growing deficits. to reduce the burden.5 This is in spite And 69% are anxious about the risk of of the EC’s efforts of the past years overregulation, now seen as a bigger to consolidate, codify and simplify threat than at any time since 2006 existing legislation and improve the (see Figure 4a). quality of new legislation. Figure 4a: Volatile conditions top the list of economic and political threats, but concerns vary by where CEOs are located Q: How concerned are you about the following potential economic and policy threats to your business growth prospects? (top four threats global CEOs named) 88% 89% 75% 66% Africa North America Middle East Africa/Asia Pacific 81% Global 71% Global 69% Global 61% Global 56% 54% 65% 50% Middle East Latin America Western Europe Latin America Uncertain or volatile Government response economic growth to fiscal deficit/debt Overregulation Capital market volatility Regions most concerned about this threat Regions least concerned about this threat Base: All respondents (North America=227; Western Europe=312; Asia Pacific=449; Latin America=165; Middle East=32; Africa=50) Source: PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey 4 ‘Over-regulated America’, The Economist (18 February 2012), http://www.economist.com/node/21547789 5 James Kirkup, ‘Lift the weight of red tape, Vince Cable and allies urge Brussels’, The Daily Telegraph (20 November 2012), http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/yourbusiness/9689165/ Lift-the-weight-of-red-tape-Vince-Cable-and-allies-urge-Brussels.html 6  PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey
  • 9. Too much tax, too little talent hard.6 Meanwhile, the competition for talent has become more fierce than On the commercial front, CEOs are ever before, with the aging of the particularly anxious about higher global population and the changing taxes and the shortage of key skills nature of work. (see Figure 4b). These are perennial fears, but current events have brought Energy and raw material costs are them to the fore. also a significant source of unease – especially in Africa and Asia Pacific, In the US, for example, one of the most where 68% and 63% of CEOs, pressing issues in President Obama’s respectively, see them as a serious threat. in-tray is reform of the corporate tax system. In February 2012, he proposed reducing the headline tax rate by eliminating dozens of subsidies, a move that could hit some companies Figure 4b: Volatile conditions top the list of business threats, but concerns vary by where CEOs are located Q: How concerned are you about the following potential business threats to your growth prospects? (top four threats global CEOs named) 65% 82% 68% 57% Asia Pacific Africa Africa Asia Pacific 62% 58% 52% 49% Global Global Global Global 50% 45% 31% 35% Middle East Western Europe Middle East Latin America Energy and Shifting consumer Increasing tax burden Availability of key skills raw material costs spending/behaviour Regions most concerned about this threat Regions least concerned about this threat Base: All respondents (Western Europe=312; Asia Pacific=449; Latin America=165; Middle East=32; Africa=50) Source: PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey 6 Jackie Calmes & John H. Cushman Jr., ‘Obama Unveils Proposal to Cut Corporate Tax Rate’, The New York Times (22 February 2012), http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/23/business/economy/ obama-introduces-plan-to-cut-corporate-tax-rate.html?pagewanted=all PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey  7
  • 10. Silver lining for some From risk management Some European countries have It’s not all doom and gloom, though. to resilience a high level of productivity while Nearly a fifth of all CEOs in the Middle One thing is clear: the threats facing others have a lower level of East believe the collapse of the eurozone CEOs are coming from all directions; productivity while they are all could provide new business opportunities. they’re coming harder and faster; and wrapped up in a ‘monetary corset’ they’re coming in more subtly varied subject to different tax regulations. Similarly, 16% of CEOs in the Middle forms. Confronted with this changing If the eurozone fails, an array of East and 13% of CEOs in Central and risk landscape, CEOs recognise that Eastern Europe believe China’s slowing opportunities may arise, because traditional risk management growth could open new doors. And techniques aren’t enough. And, in a some of the current rigidities 13% of CEOs in North America would will disappear. stagnating global economy, they know welcome a squeeze on natural they can’t rely on a rising tide to come Julio Patricio Supervielle, Grupo resources for the same reason. to the rescue. Supervielle’s CEO and Banco In fact, Chinese CEOs are already Supervielle’s Chairman, Argentina The only way forward is to build benefiting from the lingering organisations that can survive uncertainty in the eurozone. Our and thrive amidst disorder: research shows that, in 2011, there organisations that are agile and were 61 deals in which mainland adaptable, able to cope with Chinese companies acquired European disruption and emerge stronger companies – up from 11 in 2006. And than before. in the three months to March 2012, the number of Chinese firms purchasing “If you don’t evolve and change, you European firms surpassed the number go backwards. It’s pure physics,” says of European firms purchasing Chinese Larry Fink, Chairman and CEO of asset firms for the first time in history.7 management firm BlackRock Inc. “So we’ve adapted quite considerably. Even this year we changed our entire firm architecture to be more adapted to our clients, to be more adapted to the situation and, importantly, to finalise our evolution from a founders’ culture firm to a global, hopefully entrepreneurial firm. And that has been a big evolution.” 7 PwC, ‘China deals: A fresh perspective’ (October 2012). 8  PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey
  • 11. To be honest, we wouldn’t dare to predict the future. The fact is the world has been changing a lot more quickly in recent years. And looking back, we find that many forecasts of the global economy turned out to be incorrect. In our company, we just try to do well everything we need to do today. There are so many things out of our control that we feel it’s unnecessary and impractical to make too many predictions about the economy. Instead, we focus on building robust systems that can operate under a variety of conditions. Alex C. Lo, President, Uni-President Enterprises Corporation, Taiwan PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey  9
  • 12. evidence to suggest that concentrating your firepower works much better than adopting a scattergun approach. One analysis of how 4,700 companies weathered three previous downturns shows that the star performers – those that emerged stronger than ever – A three-pronged approach weren’t the obvious ones. They weren’t the companies that cut fast and furiously or went on the offensive with ambitious restructuring programmes, acquisitions and the like. The former saw customer satisfaction drop as the Growth is not necessarily about So what are CEOs doing to make their organisations more resilient in this quality of their offerings deteriorated, revenue growth. In this uncertain while the latter were stretched much era of ‘stable instability’? Our survey environment there is more and more too thin.8 shows that they’re taking three emphasis on bottom line growth. specific approaches: The companies that fared best in terms Peter Terium, CEO, RWE AG, Germany • Targeting pockets of opportunity: of both sales growth and profits CEOs are focusing on a few well- growth were those that mastered the chosen initiatives, primarily in their delicate balance between cutting costs existing markets, to stimulate organic to survive in the short term and growth. They’re more wary about investing to expand in the longer term. entering new markets or engaging They took advantage of depressed in mergers and acquisitions (M&As), prices to buy property, plants and and diluting their resources too much. equipment that would help them compete more effectively in the future. • Concentrating on the customer: And they invested judiciously in R&D CEOs are looking for new ways to and marketing to boost their sales and stimulate demand and foster profits when demand rose again.9 customer loyalty, such as capitalising on digital marketing platforms and The CEOs in our survey are responding involving customers in product/ in the same fashion. They’re weighing service development. But they’re also up all their options, making a few aiming to keep their R&D costs down smart investments and consolidating and make the innovation process their resources to maximise the odds of more efficient. success. And they’re doing so not because they think it’s the best way of • Improving operational surviving a downturn but because they effectiveness: CEOs are balancing think it will make their organisations efficiency with agility. They’re trying more robust. to cut costs without cutting value or leaving their organisations exposed Steve Holliday, CEO of international to external upheavals. They’re also energy distributor National Grid Group delegating power more widely and Plc., sums up this approach. “It’s very collaborating with organisations easy to just go off and think you can do to share resources and develop things that you do well in many new offerings. countries around the world which arguably need some of your skills,” he Targeting pockets warns. But if a company doesn’t have a clear idea of where it can deliver value of opportunity and isn’t disciplined in its focus, it risks Two-thirds of all CEOs are focusing on extending itself too far. “We’re very, a few carefully selected initiatives very conscious of making sure we don’t rather than nurturing numerous overreach ourselves.” different ideas and then weeding out the weakest. That’s easier said than done because every business unit naturally thinks its plans should take precedence. But there’s considerable 8 Ranjay Gulati, Nitin Nohria & Franz Wohlgezogen, ‘Roaring Out of Recession’, Harvard Business Review 88, no. 3 (March 2010): 62–69. 9 Ibid. 10  PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey
  • 13. Homing in on organic growth So exactly which pockets of opportunity are CEOs targeting? Nearly half are pinning their hopes on organic growth in their existing markets (see Figure 5). Only 17% plan to complete M&As or form new Figure 5: CEOs are pursuing the opportunities for organic growth in existing markets strategic alliances. And only 25% are Q: Of these potential opportunities for business growth, which one is the main opportunity in turning to new product and service the next 12 months? development. At first glance, then, it might look as if CEOs are hunkering down and waiting for better times. But CEOs also know that, if they want to grow their business, they’ll have to go where the 32% Organic growth 25% in existing growth is – and four distinct economic clusters are emerging (see Figure 6). domestic market New product or service development 17% New M&A/joint 17% The troubled states of Southern Europe ventures/strategic alliances are contracting. Meanwhile, Australia, 8% Japan, North America and the more Organic growth in existing robust members of the European Union foreign market are showing signs of recovery, albeit rather shaky. New operation(s) in foreign markets The growth countries are also diverging. China and India are still Base: All respondents (1,330) Note: 1% of CEOs responded ‘Don’t know/Refused’ expanding rapidly, but the pace is Source: PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey slowing down. Conversely, some parts of Southeast Asia and Latin America are picking up speed. This pattern is expected to continue for the rest of the decade. Figure 6: Two faster and two slower economic lanes are developing The global growth leaderboard is changing Growing but susceptible to disruption Growing and accelerating Poland 3.4% France 1.2% Indonesia 6.2% Australia 3.1% Japan 0.9% Brazil 4.0% Canada 2.3% United Kingdom 2.1% South Africa 3.6% United States 2.4% Netherlands 1.1% Germany 1.3% Ireland 2.2% Struggling to grow Growing but decelerating Italy 0.3% China 7.3% South Korea 3.6% Spain 0.9% India 6.6% Mexico 3.7% Portugal 0.5% Saudi Arabia 4.2% Russia 3.8% Greece 0.6% Turkey 5.1% Aggregates Eurozone 1.0% Global (market rates) 3.0% All percentages are projected 2013-15 average growth rates Sources and methodology: PwC analysis, national statistical authorities, Thomson Datastream and IMF. The tables above form our main scenario projections and are therefore subject to considerable uncertainties. PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey  11
  • 14. With growth rates among both mature And a growing number of CEOs are CEO opinion is divided on Europe, and growth economies diverging, and looking to Africa. For example, Nestlé though some CEOs see promise, with highly unique opportunities and sees Africa as one of the biggest including those countries that are threats in each market, CEOs are opportunities for the food industry in struggling to grow. “People there [in looking for specific opportunities in the next 10-20 years.15 Dr. João Bento, Western Europe] have decided that all clusters. CEO of Portugal-based international they should work less and retire earlier. technology provider Efacec Capital And that may not be affordable. So I It’s not surprising that five of CEOs’ top SGSP SA says, “…we also have a think that Western Europe has a ten overseas destinations are growth presence in growth economies, such serious structural issue.” says Seymur markets, nor that four of these are the as Latin America, Southern Africa, Tari, CEO of Turkish private equity BRIC economies (see Figure 7). But the Magreb and also in India.” firm Turkven. fact that Indonesia is now in the top ten – for the first time – shows that CEOs The US, meanwhile, remains second Yves Serra, President and CEO of Swiss have been quick to spot more subtle shifts on CEOs’ list of top ten overseas industrial components manufacturer in the distribution of economic power. destinations, as it did last year. Georg Fischer Ltd., is more positive. All five of the mature economies on “We focus our efforts on where we Indonesia is the fastest of the the list are growing, albeit susceptible see growth. This includes Asia and accelerating markets, with real GDP to disruption. These markets, which America, at least for our products, and growth forecast to increase by 6.2% comprise five of the G7 countries, are also some sectors in Europe. …So the a year for the next three years.10 quite simply too big to ignore: the US, picture is not just black and white; By 2050, Indonesia’s economy in Japan and Germany are projected to there are definitely pockets of growth purchasing power parity (PPP) terms remain among the world’s ten biggest in Europe as well.” could be bigger than that of Germany, economies, in PPP terms, in 2050, France or the UK.11 Its stock market has while Canada and the UK are expected The traffic isn’t going in only one soared 12.6% in the past 12 months to remain in the top 20.16 direction, though. CEOs in the mature alone.12 And the government has markets may be looking to various launched a major programme to Furthermore, although the E7 countries growth markets, but CEOs in growth improve the country’s overburdened are set to overtake the G7 countries in markets are equally prepared to go infrastructure.13 terms of GDP size and growth by 2050, further afield: 33% of CEOs in Asia they are still expected to lag far behind Pacific and 19% of those in the Middle Other emerging markets are also being the G7 countries in terms of GDP per East are targeting the US, for example, prioritised, like Mexico and Thailand, capita.17 So large, mature markets will while 27% of CEOs in Latin America which are close on the heels of CEOs’ still remain attractive for higher valued and 18% of those in Africa are top ten markets. Mexico is particularly products and services, given their more targeting China. notable – it could become the world’s 7th affluent consumers. largest economy by 2050 in PPP terms.14 Figure 7: Half of CEOs’ top ten countries are growth markets Q: Which three countries, excluding the country in which you are based, do you consider most important for your overall growth prospects over the next 12 months? (maximum of 3 responses) 5% UK 8% Canada 6% Russia 12% 23% Germany 31% 5% Japan US 10% China India 7% Indonesia 15% Brazil Base: All respondents (1,330) Source: PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey 10 PwC projections. 11 PwC, ‘World in 2050’ (January 2013). 12 Daniel Inman, ‘Southeast Asia’s Growing Appeal’, The Wall Street Journal (3 December 2012), http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324020804578151761632189982. html#mod=djemITPE_t 13 Eric Bellman, ‘Indonesia Boosts Infrastructure Investment’, The Wall Street Journal (7 December 2012), http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323501404578165794187322794.html 14 PwC, ‘World in 2050’ (January 2013). 15 Caroline Scott-Thomas, ‘Nestlé eyes big food industry opportunities in Africa’, Food Navigator (26 November 2012), http://www.foodnavigator.com/Financial-Industry/Nestle-eyes-big-food- industry-opportunities-in-Africa 16 PwC, ‘World in 2050’ (January 2013). 17 Ibid. 12  PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey
  • 15. …I think what we have to do ... is look for the growth opportunities very carefully. The easy route is to say, well that’s an emerging market so that’s got to be good, that’s a mature market, that’s got to be tougher, but ... I think you’ve got to drill down to see where the growth really is. ... and there is growth in every market – but you’ve got to go granular. Alison Cooper, Chief Executive, Imperial Tobacco Group, United Kingdom PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey  13
  • 16. Concentrating on the customer Irrespective of the markets they’re in, CEOs have one overwhelming goal: to grow their customer base. Indeed, 51% say it’s a top three investment priority for the coming year. Figure 8: Not all growth markets are consumer-led economies That’s not surprising. What’s changed 30 is the fact that CEOs are now trying to Producers Consumers and producers attract more customers while focusing Nigeria (proxied by growth in number of people of working age) 25 Projected production potential over 2011-20 period on a smaller, more targeted range of growth strategies – no easy task in 20 Saudi Arabia the current economic climate. The recession has hit some businesses and 15 Malaysia consumers badly, particularly those in India richer countries. Between 2000 and Mexico 10 2011, consumer spending in the Indonesia mature markets increased by just Brazil 5 2.1% a year. In the growth markets, South Africa Vietnam by contrast, it increased by a much 0 healthier 5.7%.18 China Very different consumption volumes -5 South Korea and patterns in different markets add to the challenge. Though the growth -10 Russia economies have some common Consumers characteristics, they also differ in key -15 0 20 40 60 80 100% respects – and these differences are Projected consumption potential over 2011-20 period likely to intensify as they continue to (proxied by GDP per capita growth) develop. Some growth countries are primarily producers rather than Note: Dotted lines represent average values consumers, for example (see Figure 8). Source: PwC analysis, UN population figures. The purchasing power and preferences of consumers can also vary a lot within, as well as between, countries, In fact, nearly half the CEOs we polled We keep close track of the real and adapting to such disparate tastes see shifts in consumer buying patterns estate sector in order to remain on requires a deep understanding of the as a serious business threat. And they the cutting edge of all advanced local environment. “It all starts with realise that being able to respond the consumer – a rich and robust quickly and effectively to such changes trends in the construction of understanding of what they want, is crucial. buildings, energy efficient where they’re going, but, most technologies and environmentally importantly, what they want in the Dr. Weihua Ma, President and CEO friendly materials. We introduce future,” Douglas D. Tough, Chairman of China Merchants Bank Co. Ltd., puts the position particularly well: ready-to-move-in residential and CEO of International Flavors & “We commercial banks are service apartments in our buildings in Fragrances, Inc., observes. institutions, so changes in customer response to client suggestions. “We interview consumers all around demands are extremely important for Valentina Stanovova, Senior Vice- the world to make sure we have a us. Just as a chef in a restaurant will President, Capital Group, Russia robust database, and we don’t lose his job if his cooking cannot satisfy extrapolate necessarily from any one his customers, a service institution will country to get a global view.” But there not exist if it has no customers.” are obvious risks for multinationals, he adds. “…they have to adapt properly to local needs.” The competition from local and regional rivals is also increasing all the time. 18 PwC, ‘Introducing the PwC Global Consumer Index’ (October 2012), http://press.pwc.com/GLOBAL/global-consumer-spending-slowdown-eases.-pwc-releases-first-ever-global-consumer-index- gci/s/bc11166a-cd72-4ea7-93fa-c167d10a5cb5 14  PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey
  • 17. Getting customers onside In terms of the importance of our different stakeholders, our customers So it’s no wonder that new strategies to are absolutely the most important. If we don’t give them a good service stimulate demand and foster customer – affordable tariffs, high reliability, good customer service – then we know loyalty play a big part in CEOs’ plans we are going to be in trouble. for the next 12 months. A full 82% Andrew Bradler, CEO, CLP Holdings Ltd., Hong Kong, China anticipate making changes on this score – and 31% have major changes in mind (see Figure 9). One obvious measure is to take Engaging with customers isn’t just advantage of the new marketing about communicating with them, platforms now emerging. Most though. It’s also about working with organisations have traditionally used them to co-create new offerings, and market research, competitive helping them use the products and benchmarking and the like. But these services they’ve bought more enjoyably sources of information can only show or effectively. Boeing has perfected the how customers behave en masse. first of these two approaches: it consults airlines and frequent flyers That’s not the case in the digital arena. alike when it’s designing new planes.19 Mining social media sites, blogs, Digital music service Spotify has consumer reviews and other such data perfected the second by inviting sources helps an organisation find out subscribers to customise their playlists, what individual customers think and which enhances the product offering want. Equipped with these insights, it for them and for others. can then develop products and services for specific customer segments and craft more personalised marketing messages – as well as enhancing the brand. This may explain why three- quarters of CEOs say they’re increasing their technology investments. Figure 9: Attracting – and keeping – more customers is a key priority Q: To what extent do you anticipate changes at your company over the next 12 months? Don’t know/refused Customer growth/retention/loyalty strategies 17 51 31 1% Strategies for managing talent 23 54 23 1% Increase in technology investments 25 54 21 1% Organisational structure 26 52 22 1% Increase in R&D and innovation capacity 32 50 17 1% 0 100 % No change Some change A major change Base: All respondents (1,330) Source: PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey 19 Bryan Urbick, ‘Innovation Through Co-creation: Consumers Can be Creative’, Innovation Management (26 March 2012), http://www.innovationmanagement.se/2012/03/26/innovation- through-co-creation-consumers-can-be-creative/ PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey  15
  • 18. Making the most of disruption Finland-based international Human capacity is key to any communications and information company’s growth. The second Yet innovation – generally one of the technology company Nokia is a case most important factors in attracting important factor is R&D. in point. “…our focus is very much and retaining customers – is surprisingly Karen Agustiawan, President Director on disruption – disrupting ourselves, low down the schedule for many CEOs. and CEO, PT Pertamina (Persero), disrupting the trends that have been It comes fifth on their list of investment Indonesia established in the industry and moving priorities for this year. And though forward with new strategies, new 67% plan to increase their company’s products and new ways of managing R&D capacity, only 17% intend to our organisation in order to keep pace make major alterations. and indeed accelerate the pace beyond The drive for efficiency explains why others.” says President and CEO some CEOs are reluctant to invest more Stephen A Elop. in R&D, but a closer look at the data “One of the most important ways that …we want more than just satisfied also shows marked regional variations. we see to drive disruption is to focus on consumers. We want to delight CEOs in Africa, Asia Pacific and Latin unique and differentiating consumer America are more likely to be beefing them – to go beyond their experiences. That’s a fancy way of up their company’s R&D than those in saying, ‘how can we help you do expectations. We are seen as a the rest of the world – possibly because company that delivers excellence something you couldn’t do before?’ the growth countries are still in in terms of customer service. … when you look at the patterns catch-up mode. of disruption, particularly in the area But our main innovations are Nevertheless, CEOs know that of technology, it’s often something our [retail] collections and how innovation isn’t possible without relatively focused, relatively simple quickly we get them to market. investment. That’s why a number that allows you as a person to do something you couldn’t do before, José Galló, CEO and Director, of leading companies are adopting Lojas Renner, Brazil a more imaginative approach to the or to do it faster or more efficiently. innovation process itself, whether And it’s those types of innovations that it’s incremental changes or more we’re focused on today,” he explains. fundamental changes to their business models, in order to become more agile and responsive to competitive threats or shifts in customer demand. 16  PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey
  • 19. It all starts with the consumer – a rich and robust understanding of what they want, where they’re going, but, most importantly, what they want in the future. Douglas D. Tough, Chairman and CEO, International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc., US PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey  17
  • 20. Improving operational objectives. As Artem Konstandyan, I think the underlying idea of effectiveness CEO of Russia’s Promsvyazbank (PSB), trying to reduce cost in whatever notes, “Downsizing is not a goal in Under pressure to meet demanding we do actually makes us become itself. We’re trying to streamline our customer growth targets within tightly operations and improve staff creative and innovative. defined investment parameters, CEOs performance.” Aireen Omar, CEO, know they’ll have to change the way AirAsia Berhad, Malaysia their companies function. Nearly half An example? Many companies say improving operational discovered in the aftermath of the We believe the underlying growth effectiveness is one of their top three tsunamis in Southeast Asia and Japan that the quest to maximise the trends will be slow. So we have to investment priorities this year. efficiency of their supply chains had just be better than the competition Anders Nyrén, President and CEO of severely impaired their ability to cope in these markets, and that is also global investment firm Industrivärden with disruption. Today’s CEOs have one of the reasons why we have AB, based in Sweden, spoke for many clearly learned from that experience: to keep costs under control. CEOs when he told us: “Given that the 50% are diversifying their supply global economy and the global pace Martin Blessing, Chairman of the chains and working with suppliers of life are getting faster in all aspects, Board of Managing Directors, in a wider range of territories. one needs to become more agile and Commerzbank AG, Germany efficient about everything – including CEOs are also wary about running a company. It’s essential that inadvertently cutting value in the …we have had to look seriously at you streamline operations and become course of cutting costs – and slashing how we manage our business. And, leaner wherever you can, so as to be the workforce is one action that can able to react more quickly to changing certainly backfire. This probably we have had to learn how to be market conditions.” explains why 25% have kept their prepared to disrupt ourselves. So, company’s headcount the same for rather than getting too rigid and Finding the right balance the past 12 months, while 48% have bureaucratic and too procedures- actually increased it. It may explain, driven, sometimes we’ve had to step Cost-cutting is still high on the agenda: too, why 77% of CEOs plan to revise 77% of CEOs have undertaken outside of ourselves, but yet within their strategies for managing talent cost-saving initiatives in the past ourselves, by creating new units in the coming year; they realise they 12 months and 70% plan to do so in to challenge the way that we do won’t be able to attract and retain new the next 12 months (see Figure 10). But they’re not wielding the knife customers without well-trained, highly business and to extend that motivated employees. learning to the traditional parts indiscriminately; they’re trying to balance efficiency with other strategic of our business. Alex Arena, Group Managing Director, HKT Ltd., Hong Kong, China Figure 10: Cost-cutting tops the list of restructuring activities CEOs plan to put in place in 2013 Q: Which, if any, of the following restructuring activities do you plan to initiate in the coming 12 months? 70% 47% 31% Implement a Enter into a new Outsource a cost-reduction strategic alliance business process initiative or joint venture or function Base: All respondents (1,330) Source: PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey 18  PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey
  • 21. Figure 11: Involving less senior managers in strategic decisions is seen as most effective in preparing them for leadership Q: Do you deploy any of the following to develop your leadership pipeline? Q: If so, how effective are they? 100 % of CEOs who deploy the following to develop their leadership pipeline 79 80 69 71 62 61 % of CEOs who 60 58 don’t rate their initiatives as % highly effective 40 37 33 20 24 22 22 19 11 13 0 Shadowing Programmes Encouraging Rotations to Dedicated Active Involving senior to encourage global mobility different executive succession managers below executives diversity and functions/ development planning, board level among international challenges programme including in strategic business experience identifying decision-making leaders multiple successors Effectiveness of methods deployed to develop leadership pipeline Very effective Somewhat effective Not very effective Not at all effective Don’t know/refused Base: All respondents (1,330) Source: PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey Putting power in more hands That said, there are pronounced I prefer a management style based regional variations in behaviour. on openness and cooperation at In fact, some CEOs are going CEOs in North America are far more considerably further: they’re devolving every level; one that does not likely to encourage their employees to power more widely to make their participate in strategic decisions than necessarily obey or respect organisations more agile and responsive. hierarchy at all times. I believe in those based in Central and Eastern Although only 31% encourage all their leadership that can stay flexible. Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin America. staff to get involved in strategic They’re also more likely to involve Sándor Csányi, Chairman and CEO, planning, 79% include managers middle managers. OTP Bank Plc., Hungary below board level in such decisions as part of the process of developing their These variations obviously reflect leadership pipelines. And most CEOs cross-cultural differences in how think it’s the best way of nurturing decisions are made. CEOs in cultures their successors (see Figure 11). that are relatively egalitarian typically adopt a more participative approach “We don’t have one way of doing things than those in cultures that are nor do we have one point of authority relatively hierarchical.20 But whereas to which all questions have to be participative management can improve directed,” says Carl Sheldon, CEO of profitability in less hierarchical United Arab Emirates-based global cultures, it can worsen profitability in energy company TAQA. “Instead, our more hierarchical cultures.21 So using approach is to create a culture that different decision-making styles in empowers people and – within the different cultures makes good context of a set of shared values – business sense. provides them with the freedom to take action. That gives you tremendous strength, flexibility, and agility.” 20 Pankaj Ghemawat & Sebastian Reiche, ‘National Cultural Differences and Multinational Business’, Globalization Note Series, 2011. 21 Karen L. Newman & Stanley D. Nollen, ‘Culture and Congruence: The Fit Between Management Practices and National Culture’, Journal of International Business Studies 27, No. 4 (4th Quarter, 1996), pp. 753-779. PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey  19
  • 22. Sharing as well as buying We believe the dip in M&A is being Our innovation comes from driven by current levels of uncertainty globally collaborative efforts and a It’s not just the way management rather than a major change in and employees interact within lot of encouragement from within. emphasis. But we’re also seeing a move organisations that’s changing, though; by businesses towards ‘sharing’, by It is also about empowerment, it’s also the way organisations interact decentralisation and forming partnerships or networks. with each other. Nearly half the CEOs encouragement to come up with Inspired by companies like Amazon we polled aim to form a new strategic and Apple, CEOs recognise that they’re new ideas for R&D programmes alliance or joint venture during the no longer confined to the traditional and product development. next 12 months, which is broadly options of ‘build or buy’. in line with the pattern for the past A.M. Naik, Executive Chairman, four years. Collaborating with other organisations Larsen & Toubro Limited, India in the same or adjacent industries At the same time, global M&A activity provides new opportunities for has declined sharply since the start of generating business by co-developing the global financial crisis, although products and services, taking CEOs in some sectors, like mining, advantage of a common infrastructure power and utilities and communications, and sharing customers. It also carries are much more likely to be prioritising much less risk than an M&A because investment in M&A in the coming year. it doesn’t require a significant upfront Even so, the aggregate value of the investment and doesn’t entail spending deals completed in the first half of several years integrating the target 2012 was less than half the value of company to realise the gains. the deals completed in the first half That’s not to say there’s no place for of 2007.22 Further evidence of how M&As. On the contrary, one study cautious CEOs have become is the shows that firms using multiple modes fact that three-quarters of the deals to obtain new resources were much conducted in 2012 were cash-only more likely to survive over a five-year transactions.23 period than those that relied solely on Yet, some firms have plenty of money alliances, solely on M&As or solely on in their piggy banks. US companies are internal development.27 sitting on about $1.7 trillion in cash But partnering with other reserves.24 Canadian companies hold organisations, as distinct from nearly $300 billion.25 And British purchasing them, does carry businesses hold another £720 billion.26 considerable organisational implications. Nearly two-thirds of the CEOs who The qualities needed to form a participated in our survey also intend successful network are quite different to boost their capital spending over the from those needed to pull off an next 12 months, which suggests that acquisition. Key among these is the they have enough cash to finance their high degree of collaboration that’s plans or are confident of raising the required to make an alliance work.28 funds. So, if money isn’t the issue, what is? 22 mergermarket H1 round-up report (July 2012). 23 mergermarket 2012 round-up report (January 2013). 24 Federal Reserve, ‘Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States’ (June 2012). 25 ‘Dead money’, The Economist (3 November 2012), http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21565621-cash-has-been-piling-up-companies’-balance-sheets-crisis-dead 26 Michael Izza, ‘Business Confidence research suggests recovery has not yet taken hold’, ICAEW (5 November 2012), http://www.ion.icaew.com/MoorgatePlace/25687 27 Laurence Capron & Will Mitchell, Build, Borrow, or Buy: Solving the Growth Dilemma (Harvard Business Review Press, 2012). 28 PwC, ‘Creating successful alliances and joint ventures’ (2012). 20  PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey
  • 23. One key point of our strategic advantage is the capability to ‘orchestrate’ the production and engineering value chain we create in partnership with other companies. That gives us the ability to scale up or scale down quickly and efficiently. We try to ensure our organisational structure is sufficiently fluid so that we can respond quickly to changes in demand. Pertti Korhonen, President and CEO, Outotec Oyj, Finland PwC 16th Annual Global CEO Survey  21