Self Driving Cars will disrup Transport Planning and Policy Making. We need to understand better their potential impact

1. FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF SELF-DRIVING-CARS
What to do about them in our models and forecasts

2. MOTIVATION
Motivation
 Cars have been cars for quite a long time
 We know how to model assignment, capacities, traffic
management
 Mode choice between car and other modes is reasonably
well known
 Public Transport policies are known (and stable)
 It became clear during 2013 that we will be facing a new
disruptive technology in the Self Driving Car or Autonomous
Vehicles

3. THEDESIGNOFCARS
Car technology has not changed much in 100 years?
1913 2013

4. Recent innovations include:

5. DREAMINGABOUTTHEFUTURE
The unrealised dream

6. Origins
 Autonomous vehicles have been a dream solution for some
time
 Japan (starting in 1977),
 Germany (Ernst Dickmanns and VaMP),
 Italy (the ARGO Project),
 European Union (EUREKA Prometheus Project),
 In the United States of America the main driver was military
 The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)
launched in 2004 a challenge to complete a 150 mile off-
road route: $ 1 and then $2 million

7. The DARPA Challenge
 2004 Carnegie Mellon University's
Red Team and car “Sandstorm”
completed 7 miles
 2005 “Stanley” from Stanford
University won in 6:54 and 4 others
completed the course

8. DARPA Urban Challenge
• 2007 $2, $1 and $0.5 M
• 60 Miles in urban areas,
less than 6 hrs
• Obeying all traffic
regulations
Team Vehicle Time
Tartan Racing, Carnegie
Mellon University
Chevy Tahoe 4:10
Stanford Racing, Stanford
University
VW Passat 4:29
Victor Tango, Virginia Tech. Ford Hybrid Escape 4:36
7 other teams finished the
course
6 hours +

9. U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)
Defined Vehicle Automation levels
Level 1 – Function-specific Automation: e.g. cruise control,
lane guidance and automated parallel parking.
Level 2 - Combined Function Automation: e.g. adaptive cruise
control with lane centering. Drivers are responsible for
monitoring the roadway.
Level 3 - Limited Self-Driving Automation: Drivers can cede all
safety-critical functions under certain conditions and rely on
the vehicle to monitor for changes in those conditions that will
require transition back to driver control.
Level 4 - Full Self-Driving Automation: Vehicles can perform all
driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire
trip, and so may operate with occupants who cannot drive and
without human occupants.

10. GOOGLE
Autonomous, self-driving-vehicles are coming!

11. 360VISION
360° vision and perception

12. ADVANTAGES
Advantages
 Better environmental perception,
estimation of expected trajectories
better than human
 Error elimination and correction
 Faster reaction time
 Predictable driving, no need for
3.50 metres lanes
 Learning from experience ability;
improvement and updatting of
mapping
 Potential to communicate and
collaborate with other vehicles
(Waze)
 No need to own it
 Civil responsibilty, insurance
 Changes in legislation

13. BMW
There are many initiatives under way e.g. BMW

14. AUDIVOLKSWAGEN
Audi

15. PLATOONS
Volvo

16. OTHERS
General Motors – Renault – Nissan-Oxford University

17. IMPACTS
Possible Impacts (with SDVs as 90% of the fleet)
 95% reduction in traffic accidents
 Road capacities are doubled (without any investment in
them)
 All speeds and manoeuvres are legal
 Travel time available for other uses
 SDVs rented by the minute rather than owned, thus
 Smaller fleet
 Use the right vehicle for each journey
 Parking problems eliminated
 Fewer emissions and lower energy consumption per trip
 Better driving patterns
 More one way trips (no escort trips)
 But some trip induction: more vehicle-miles

18. CONGESTIONEFFECTS
Impact on roads
Highway Capacity Benefits from Using Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communication and Sensors for Collision
Avoidance, by Patcharinee Tientrakool, Ya-Chi Ho, and Nicholas F. Maxemchuk from Columbia University

19. CONGESTIONEFFECTS
Impact on roads
Highway Capacity Benefits from Using Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communication and Sensors for Collision
Avoidance, by Patcharinee Tientrakool, Ya-Chi Ho, and Nicholas F. Maxemchuk from Columbia University

20. 2018?2020?2025?
How soon?
• When available at the showrooms?
• How expensive?
• Would we buy or rent them, or prefer to drive ourselves?
• When are we going to feel the impact on our roads?
• How will they affect our Transport Plans?
• Public Transport Modes?
• Toll Roads?
• Policies?

21. Timeline according to General Motors & Google
• 2014 some self-parking cars. Automatic emergency stops in
several contexts. LEVEL 2
• 2015, cars change lanes as requested by driver. Stop
automatically at STOP signs and red lights.
• 2016 cars merge and leave motorways automatically.
Emergency stop in all cases. LEVEL 3
• 2018 Autonomous vehicles completing journeys without
human driving, including unpaved roads. LEVEL 4
• Most observes agree Level 4 will be available commercially
2018-2020.

22. NAVIGANTRESEARCH
Recent Research Report on SDVs Navigant Research
 Level 4 commercially available by 2020
 SDVs will be 4% of fleet by 2025
 Compound Annual Growth Rate 2025-2030 for main markets:
North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific = 85%
 Market penetration 41% in 2030 and 75% in 2035

23. NAVIGANTRESEARCH
Recent Research Report on SDVs Navigant Research

24. UNIVERSITYOFTEXASATAUSTIN
ENO Center for Transportation
Fagnant, D. and Kockelman, K. (2013)
Preparing the Nation for Autonomous
Vehicles; Opportunities, Barriers and Policy
Recommendations.
https://www.enotrans.org/store/research-papers/preparing-a-nation-for-
autonomous-vehicles-opportunities-barriers-and-policy-recommendations

25. UNIVERSITYOFTEXASATAUSTIN
ENO Center Report
 Accepts estimate of incremental costs reducing from $10,000
to $3,000 in a few years
 Very significant savings in accidents and their cost
 Reduced congestion: doubling capacity at 90% penetration
 Expect vehicle sharing, car clubs, short term rentals: each SDV
to replace 4-5 cars
 Induced traffic will increase Vehicle Miles Travelled up to 37%
off-setting fuel/emission savings off-peak
 Benefits also to non-SDVs (smoothing traffic, following SDV)
CBA for US market 10% 50% 90%
Additional cost for SDVs $ 10,000 $ 5,000 $ 3,000
Net discounted annual benefits $ per SDV $12,590 $ 23,070 $ 33,200

26. CIBGESTION&CAPACITY
Impacts on congestion and capacity
Penetration in the fleet
10% 50% 90%
Expressways
Increase in capacity 5% 45% 100+%
Reduction in congestion delay* 5% 35% 60+%
Arterials
Increase in capacity 3% 20% 30%
Reduction in congestion delay* 5% 10% 15%
Approximately when? 2027 2033 2040
*Includes induced traffic effects

27. LIKETHEM?
Apparently we are happy to use them: CISCO

28. Discussion topic: how do we incorporate SDV in our forecasts?
 We can no longer ignore them if planning horizon is 10+
years
 At least a source of uncertainty and part of Risk Analysis
 Assumptions about freeway capacity enhancements
 10% a 2025?
 50% a 2033?
 100% a 2040?
 Impact on Public Transport services and subsidies; which
buses will survive? Would they become driver-less?
 Sell any shares in Taxi and Limousine companies and
consider divesting in rural and low frequency bus

29. Thanks …
let’s discuss what we think we should do in our forecasts