Petrocapita is an investment trust built around the premise that demand for energy will continue to move prices higher over the long-term. Petrocapita was created to allow investors to add professionally managed oil & gas assets directly to their portfolios.

1. Petrocapita Update
December 2010

2. Petrocapita Update
IF YOU CAN KEEP YOUR HEAD WHEN ALL ABOUT YOU
ARE LOSING THEIRS ... YOU DON’T WORK FOR THE
FEDERAL RESERVE
Apologies to Mr. Kipling for using his work to create an
inflammatory headline.
A considerable amount of ink is being spilled on the topic of
whether there is a recovery underway in the west and if so,
whether that recovery is sustainable. So much ink in fact that
one would have thought that when combined with the mighty
labors of our central banks to single-handedly create an ink
shortage this lowly substance would have been used up long
ago.
Fortunately, or perhaps unfortunately depending on your view of
my monthly musings, we haven’t run out yet so let me give you
my view on the recovery debate - a recovery in nominal or real
terms? With the printing presses running full time (ink supplies
notwithstanding) some form of nominal recovery will occur in the
western economies. Sadly, it’s not going to be anywhere nearly
as satisfying as other post-war recoveries because it largely will
be an illusion in real terms. Our recovery is not being built on the
sound fundamentals for growth:
– Favorable demographics;
– Low national debt levels;
– High savings rates; and
– Persistent trade surpluses.
Please take a moment and consider which so-called developed
nation has these characteristics. Stumped? None. Now turn
your gaze to the emerging world - I doubt you are still stumped
as the list is long and obvious.
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3. Petrocapita Update (continued)
Take Canada as an example of a country suffering is one of the world’s largest net exporters of both
from the western growth malaise. Canada has: energy and agricultural commodities. As we know,
energy and food consumption undergo rapid growth
– An aging population; as a developing economy makes the transition to
– Large unfunded liabilities for social benefits; a middle class standard of living. These markets
– High total debt-to-GDP levels; already appear to be tightening and demand is still
– Low savings rates; accelerating. Here are some quick numbers to
– Large and increasing government intervention in give you an idea of western Canada’s resources
the economy; endowment:
– Large fiscal deficits; and
– An overly accommodative monetary authority. Energy
– Oil (13% of world reserves; 4% of world
I’m sorry to be the bearer of bad tidings but these production)
are not the seeds from which mighty recoveries – Uranium (8% of world reserves; 20% of world
are grown. By insisting on printing over the production)
systemic solvency issues in the financial sector,
by actively preventing the liquidation of decades Agriculture
of mal-investment, by subsidizing speculation and – Potash (60% of world reserves; 30% of world
consumption to the detriment of production (and production)
so on) our valiant central bankers will not create a – Wheat (21% of the world export market)
recovery. Unless these problems are addressed they – Oil seeds (10% of the world export market)
are creating an inflationary environment with poor – Farmland (80% of Canadian total)
real growth dynamics - i.e. the ideal raw materials for
stagflation in the west. The Canadian economy appears bifurcated between
the lower growth east and the higher growth west.
What are our investment options? It should come as Investing in western Canada provides exposure to
no surprise to anyone who has read one of my letters emerging market consumption patterns in energy
that I believe its important to find investments in and agriculture in a politically stable market. I believe
politically stable regions of the world that are directly a good approach is to make direct investments
exposed to emerging economy growth - i.e. regions in commodity production assets - in addition to
that export what the emerging economies need and providing less volatile exposure to commodity price
are not exposed to emerging economy competitive trends, production assets are excellent inflation
advantages - i.e. regions that do not export what the hedges that, unlike gold, generate cash flow.
emerging economies make.
In addition, investors who have a value orientation
In my funds’ backyard, western Canada, energy have been provided what I believe is an attractive
and agriculture are dominant industries. In fact, entry point into the Western Canadian conventional
western Canada, with only 10 million inhabitants, oil market. The credit crisis has caused financing to
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4. Petrocapita Update (continued)
become scarce for junior oil & gas companies while we assume that BOC actions are keeping interest
low natural gas prices are reducing their profitability. rates at least 4% below their equilibrium level then
They are being forced to sell assets to stay in Canadian savers are being taxed by the BOC to the
business. This has created a buyers’ market for the tune of $50 billion annually in the form of lost interest
acquisition of smaller oil production assets - assets income. Canadian federal government income tax
that are highly cash flow positive at current oil prices. revenues are approximately $150 billion, so is it not
accurate to say the BOC has unilaterally increased
Shifting gears for a moment - I want to ask when Canadian income taxes by around 33%?
we gave permission for central banks to take over
the tax role of our governments? Central bankers Let me leave you with this. If central banks really
now seem to feel free to increase the money supply believe that printing money and giving it to the
by any quantity they deem necessary to keep the government and the banking sector is solving our
banking sector solvent. In effect, they are extracting problems and is not inflationary why not print much,
a massive tax from savers everywhere via the much more and be done with the crisis once and for
historically low interest rates they have engineered. all? Perhaps all this money printing will usher in a
When questioned about what they are doing with our new era of wealth, prosperity and low inflation - what
money they get downright testy and roll out the cliché do you think?
of “central bank independence”.
Kind Regards
Let’s take a look at what that vaunted
“independence” is costing Canadians using some Stephen Johnston - Partner
Bank of Canada (“BOC”) data. There is C$1.2 Petrocapita Income Trust & Agcapita Farmland
trillion on deposit with Canadian chartered banks. If Investment Partnership
Stephen is a partner at Petrocapita, an energy investment fund built around the core premise that the world
is in a bull market in commodities driven by inflation and a step-change increase in demand and, accordingly,
that investments with direct or indirect exposure to commodities in a politically stable environment such as
Canada will provide above average returns. Petrocapita holds a portfolio of low risk, producing energy assets.
Stephen graduated from London Business School and is the founder of one of Canada’s largest farmland
investment funds, and Petrocapita. He has over 15 years experience as a fund manger – working for
organizations such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Societe Generale and Baring
Brothers.
Stephen has appeared on Business News Network and CBC News and been quoted in such media outlets as
Fortune, the Financial Times and The Globe and Mail.
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5. DISCLAIMER:
The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials
contained herein are provided as of the date hereof and are subject to
change without notice. Some of the information, opinions, estimates,
projections and other materials contained herein have been obtained from
numerous sources and Petrocapita Income Trust (“PETROCAPITA”) and
its affiliates make every effort to ensure that the contents hereof have been
compiled or derived from sources believed to be reliable and to contain
information and opinions which are accurate and complete. However, neither
PETROCAPITA nor its affiliates have independently verified or make any
representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof, take no
responsibility for any errors and omissions which maybe contained herein or
accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of or reliance
on the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials
contained herein whether relied upon by the recipient or user or any other
third party (including, without limitation, any customer of the recipient or
user). Information may be available to PETROCAPITA and/or its affiliates that
is not reflected herein. The information, opinions, estimates, projections and
other materials contained herein are not to be construed as an offer to sell, a
solicitation for or an offer to buy, any products or services referenced herein
(including, without limitation, any commodities, securities or other financial
instruments), nor shall such information, opinions, estimates, projections and
other materials be considered as investment advice or as a recommendation
to enter into any transaction. Additional information is available by contacting
PETROCAPITA or its relevant affiliate directly.
#400, 2424 4th Street SW Tel: +1.403.608.1256 www.petrocapita.com
Calgary, Alberta T2S 2T4 Fax: +1.403.648.2776
Canada