Apidays New York 2024 - The Good, the Bad and the Governed by David O'Neill, ...
Telco survival
1. Telecommunications…
How to survive & prosper in:
The 21st Century
Peter Cochrane
ca-global.org COCHRANE
cochrane.org.uk a s s o c i a t e s
2. We live in a world where
change seems to be faster
by the day…
Stasis is a killer!
What we know for sure:
Those companies &
industries that hold
* Technology
onto the past always
* Competition
die….
* Customers
…won’t wait
6. “…the only human that likes
change is a wet baby… and
even then they cry and scream
thro the process…”
7. IT = The nervous system of business
• Reduces cost Supports & empowers
• Automates processes • Management
• Improves efficiency • Marketing
• Mitigates risk • Sales
• Improves quality • Support
• Improves timeliness • Customers
• •
• •
Unfortunately the telecom industry is not seen
as a friend or even a contributor to all this!
8. Business change cycle…never ending!
Standby for the next cycle
Threat/
Competition Prosper
Opportunity/
Necessity for Survival
Change Refinement
Business
IT
Process Technology
Operations
Product/Service Innovation & Improvement - cost reduction
10. Decade-on-decade new, lower cost, and higher
performance computers emerge:
• Platform
• Interface to humans & the world
• Networking and/or interconnect structure
log (people per computer)
Electronic/electro
-mechanical
Mainframe
Minicomputer
Workstation
PC
Laptop
PDA
Explants & Implants in
everything & everyone?
Based on a slide by David Culler UC/Berkeley
year
11. Raw computing power alone has let us solve
many of the limiting problems from the past:
Spatial Processing
• Interference fundamentally limits efficiency
• Spatial processing mitigates self-interference
Adaptive
Antenna Base
Station
12. We now have all the technology to deliver an
infinity of bandwidth to almost any location…
…by fiber//re, radio and satellite…we can
simultaneously reuse, space, time, frequency
& wavelength….all the old limiters have gone!
13. Disruptive forces
Digitization of everything…… and exponential growth
Everything/one is getting connected…… and mobile
Devices are getting smaller, smarter…… and cheaper
Customer demand… and an explosion of broadband
14. A big mindset change in just 20 years!
< 1960/70
> 1980/90
Monopoly
Market
Me
Me
The supplier
It’s about ..
The customer
16. So what do Telcos have to do to…
1) Recognize the changes that have happened
17. So what do Telcos have to do to…
1) Recognize the changes that have happened
2) Identify the changes about to happen
18. So what do Telcos have to do to…
1) Recognize the changes that have happened
2) Identify the changes about to happen
3) Look for the big opportunities
19. So what do Telcos have to do to…
1) Recognize the changes that have happened
2) Identify the changes about to happen
3) Look for the big opportunities
4) Change the business model
21. …and stop asking really dumb questions!
- How much bandwidth do we need?
22. …and stop asking really dumb questions!
- How much bandwidth do we need?
- What will people do with it?
23. …and stop asking really dumb questions!
- How much bandwidth do we need?
- What will people do with it?
- What are the killer applications?
24. …and stop asking really dumb questions!
- How much bandwidth do we need?
- What will people do with it?
- What are the killer applications?
- Can’t we do it all with wireless anyway?
25. …and stop asking really dumb questions!
- How much bandwidth do we need?
- What will people do with it?
- What are the killer applications?
- Can’t we do it all with wireless anyway?
- Haven’t we invested in too much fiber?
27. …and stop making really dumb assumptions!
- Customer use/need is asymmetric!
28. …and stop making really dumb assumptions!
- Customer use/need is asymmetric!
- Customers will pay for connectivity!
29. …and stop making really dumb assumptions!
- Customer use/need is asymmetric!
- Customers will pay for connectivity!
- Network use can be controlled!
30. …and stop making really dumb assumptions!
- Customer use/need is asymmetric!
- Customers will pay for connectivity!
- Network use can be controlled!
- Content can be controlled!
31. …and stop making really dumb assumptions!
- Customer use/need is asymmetric!
- Customers will pay for connectivity!
- Network use can be controlled!
- Content can be controlled!
- Maximum penetration is 100%!
32. …and stop making really dumb assumptions!
- Customer use/need is asymmetric!
- Customers will pay for connectivity!
- Network use can be controlled!
- Content can be controlled!
- Maximum penetration is 100%!
- Government/Regulators understand !!!!
33. Everything moving to the edge?
Networks get dumber as the
periphery is getting smarter.
Almost everything can be done
better at the periphery rather
than in the core!
34. Fundamental threats & opportunities
Voice Services: Could be killed by VOIP
the Skype model
Network: Could be by-passed by wireless
WiFi, WiMax, et al
Network Services: Anyone can provide
netcos have little advantage
35. Fundamental threats & opportunities
Equipment: PCs + Laptops >> appliances
IT Dept unnecessary?
Security: Users more savvy & effective
Security Dept unnecessary?
Provision: Employees provide their own IT
Companies lose control?
38. The Web 2.0 clock
is ticking….
• Mobility
• Symmetry
• More bandwidth
39. What is Web 2.0?
Recent 1000 people survey:
* 13% didn‘t know what it was
* 87% said they knew what it was
but, nearly everybody came up with
a different description
40. Don’t worry…
Tim Berners Lee doesn’t know either
It seems to be a term coined by Tim O’Reilly in 2004
43. What Web 2.0? might be…
A distributed & global:
* Intelligence
44. What Web 2.0? might be…
A distributed & global:
* Intelligence
* knowledge base
45. What Web 2.0? might be…
A distributed & global:
* Intelligence
* knowledge base
* communal working medium
46. What Web 2.0? might be…
A distributed & global:
* Intelligence
* knowledge base
* communal working medium
Connecting all:
47. What Web 2.0? might be…
A distributed & global:
* Intelligence
* knowledge base
* communal working medium
Connecting all:
* People
48. What Web 2.0? might be…
A distributed & global:
* Intelligence
* knowledge base
* communal working medium
Connecting all:
* People
* Devices
49. What Web 2.0? might be…
A distributed & global:
* Intelligence
* knowledge base
* communal working medium
Connecting all:
* People
* Devices
* Things
50. What Web 2.0? might be…
A distributed & global:
* Intelligence
* knowledge base
* communal working medium
Connecting all:
* People
* Devices Fixed and mobile
* Things
51. What Web 2.0? might be…
A distributed & global:
* Intelligence
* knowledge base
* communal working medium
Connecting all:
* People
* Devices Fixed and mobile
* Things
52. What Web 2.0? might be…
A distributed & global:
* Intelligence
* knowledge base
* communal working medium
The intelligent web…harnessing collective
Connecting all:
data, information, knowledge & intelligence
* People
* Devices Fixed and mobile
* Things
53. Most critically…
* Information
* Knowledge
* Wisdom
All move to
the edge…&
become mobile!
54. So who is in pole position to
satisfy this growing need?
55. Future Competition??
Competition changing market and customer expectations
Internet
Search Google.com
IM/VOIP Google Talk
Google Base Convergence
WiFi
Free WiFi
IT portal
ICT GoogleBox
services
WiFi Customer
VOIP TV/Vision
BlackBox Ad Growth
VOIP WiFi Fixed - Mobile Fusion
Broadband
PSTN
POTS/2.5/3G
Mobile
2005
2007
2008
2009
56. We can expect to see more:
- Device variants
Clients
- OS variants
- Applications
- Mobility
- Churn
Thinner & smarter clients give
us an almost natural solution
57. Everything is becoming a
commodity…
•Profits squeezed
•Margins eroded
•More competition
•Fickle customers
This will automatically lead
to consolidation - more
M&A activity
59. What should we be doing?
- Move to all IP networks
- Get out of billing - or get into banking
- Move to symmetric broadband
- Start the migration to >100Mbit/s
- Roll out VOIP
- Reduce the number of net nodes by >90%
- Drastically reduce staffing
- Introduce new services - hit the competition
- Buy up ISPs
- Change the business model
60. Go with the latest,
most efficient tech,
to…realize greater
efficiency & savings,
& even greater
effectiveness!
67. Costing in for FTTH …
1) Water ingress in copper ~ 50% of faults
68. Costing in for FTTH …
1) Water ingress in copper ~ 50% of faults
2) Employees in network ~ 25% of faults
69. Costing in for FTTH …
1) Water ingress in copper ~ 50% of faults
2) Employees in network ~ 25% of faults
3) Remote routing of fiber saves ~ 95% work
70. Costing in for FTTH …
1) Water ingress in copper ~ 50% of faults
2) Employees in network ~ 25% of faults
3) Remote routing of fiber saves ~ 95% work
4) Fibre reach removes electronics
71. Costing in for FTTH …
1) Water ingress in copper ~ 50% of faults
2) Employees in network ~ 25% of faults
3) Remote routing of fiber saves ~ 95% work
4) Fibre reach removes electronics
5) Switch nodes/building stock reduced >90%
72. Costing in for FTTH …
1) Water ingress in copper ~ 50% of faults
2) Employees in network ~ 25% of faults
3) Remote routing of fiber saves ~ 95% work
4) Fibre reach removes electronics
5) Switch nodes/building stock reduced >90%
6) Reduced OSS & BSS systems & costs
73. Costing in for FTTH …
1) Water ingress in copper ~ 50% of faults
2) Employees in network ~ 25% of faults
3) Remote routing of fiber saves ~ 95% work
4) Fibre reach removes electronics
5) Switch nodes/building stock reduced >90%
6) Reduced OSS & BSS systems & costs
7) Energy costs reduced by >50%
74. Costing in for FTTH …
1) Water ingress in copper ~ 50% of faults
2) Employees in network ~ 25% of faults
3) Remote routing of fiber saves ~ 95% work
4) Fibre reach removes electronics
5) Switch nodes/building stock reduced >90%
6) Reduced OSS & BSS systems & costs
7) Energy costs reduced by >50%
8) Staffing reduced by > 80%
75. Costing in for FTTH …
1) Water ingress in copper ~ 50% of faults
2) Employees in network ~ 25% of faults
3) Remote routing of fiber saves ~ 95% work
4) Fibre reach removes electronics
5) Switch nodes/building stock reduced >90%
6) Reduced OSS & BSS systems & costs
7) Energy costs reduced by >50%
8) Staffing reduced by > 80%
9) Lead, copper & plastic recovered = $$ income
76. Costing in for FTTH …
1) Water ingress in copper ~ 50% of faults
2) Employees in network ~ 25% of faults
3) Remote routing of fiber saves ~ 95% work
4) Fibre reach removes electronics
5) Switch nodes/building stock reduced >90%
6) Reduced OSS & BSS systems & costs
7) Energy costs reduced by >50%
8) Staffing reduced by > 80%
9) Lead, copper & plastic recovered = $$ income
10)Year-on-year OPEX fall with new tech
77. The worst thing we could do?
Continue to do what we have
always done, because we will
continue to get what we have
always got….
83. BIG predictions…
Positioning systems >> Communications
SensorNets >> All Nets
PodCasting >> TV & Radio
Thin Clients >> Thick Clients
Home Creativity >> Office Creativity
84. BIG predictions…
Positioning systems >> Communications
SensorNets >> All Nets
PodCasting >> TV & Radio
Thin Clients >> Thick Clients
Home Creativity >> Office Creativity
Robots >> People
85. BIG predictions…
Positioning systems >> Communications
SensorNets >> All Nets
PodCasting >> TV & Radio
Thin Clients >> Thick Clients
Home Creativity >> Office Creativity
Robots >> People
Machine Decisions >> People Decisions
86. A world of opportunity & risk….
Thank you,
cochrane.org.uk
ca-global.org
COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s
Notas do Editor
Over roughly 50 years, we have seen a series of new classes of computers emerge.
Each had its collection of technological drivers &#x2013; not just a specific breakthrough but a confluence of technological advances. If we were to call out one thing it would be integration. As more capability can be squeezed into a certain size/weight/power &#x2013; suddenly just when the previous class is at full strength an entirely new kind of system emerges.
With it, a whole new class of applications. Purposes for which we didn&#x2019;t even think computers were good for.
What is seldom observed is that each is smaller than the one before, more intimately tied into our lives, and greater in number.
Today, all the hype is about internet cell-phones and PDAs. However, you are just about to see a new class emerge. This one will be very different. It will be smaller and more numerous, but instead of keyboards and displays, it will be connected to the physical world.
These are devices that we build today off the shelf. This is where we are in the lab.
In Gartner&#x2018;s &#x201C;2006 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle&#x201D;, Web 2.0 was selected as one of the top key technologies over the coming ten years.
What Web 2.0 actually stands for seems very unclear.
When Basecamp asked 1000 of their customers what Web
2.0 meant to them:
13% answered that they didn&#x2018;t know what it was
87% who answered yes on the question, nearly everybody came up with a different descriptionSource: Arthur D. Little
In Gartner&#x2018;s &#x201C;2006 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle&#x201D;, Web 2.0 was selected as one of the top key technologies over the coming ten years.
What Web 2.0 actually stands for seems very unclear.
When Basecamp asked 1000 of their customers what Web
2.0 meant to them:
13% answered that they didn&#x2018;t know what it was
87% who answered yes on the question, nearly everybody came up with a different descriptionSource: Arthur D. Little
In Gartner&#x2018;s &#x201C;2006 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle&#x201D;, Web 2.0 was selected as one of the top key technologies over the coming ten years.
What Web 2.0 actually stands for seems very unclear.
When Basecamp asked 1000 of their customers what Web
2.0 meant to them:
13% answered that they didn&#x2018;t know what it was
87% who answered yes on the question, nearly everybody came up with a different descriptionSource: Arthur D. Little
In Gartner&#x2018;s &#x201C;2006 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle&#x201D;, Web 2.0 was selected as one of the top key technologies over the coming ten years.
What Web 2.0 actually stands for seems very unclear.
When Basecamp asked 1000 of their customers what Web
2.0 meant to them:
13% answered that they didn&#x2018;t know what it was
87% who answered yes on the question, nearly everybody came up with a different descriptionSource: Arthur D. Little
In Gartner&#x2018;s &#x201C;2006 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle&#x201D;, Web 2.0 was selected as one of the top key technologies over the coming ten years.
What Web 2.0 actually stands for seems very unclear.
When Basecamp asked 1000 of their customers what Web
2.0 meant to them:
13% answered that they didn&#x2018;t know what it was
87% who answered yes on the question, nearly everybody came up with a different descriptionSource: Arthur D. Little
In Gartner&#x2018;s &#x201C;2006 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle&#x201D;, Web 2.0 was selected as one of the top key technologies over the coming ten years.
What Web 2.0 actually stands for seems very unclear.
When Basecamp asked 1000 of their customers what Web
2.0 meant to them:
13% answered that they didn&#x2018;t know what it was
87% who answered yes on the question, nearly everybody came up with a different descriptionSource: Arthur D. Little
In Gartner&#x2018;s &#x201C;2006 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle&#x201D;, Web 2.0 was selected as one of the top key technologies over the coming ten years.
What Web 2.0 actually stands for seems very unclear.
When Basecamp asked 1000 of their customers what Web
2.0 meant to them:
13% answered that they didn&#x2018;t know what it was
87% who answered yes on the question, nearly everybody came up with a different descriptionSource: Arthur D. Little
In Gartner&#x2018;s &#x201C;2006 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle&#x201D;, Web 2.0 was selected as one of the top key technologies over the coming ten years.
What Web 2.0 actually stands for seems very unclear.
When Basecamp asked 1000 of their customers what Web
2.0 meant to them:
13% answered that they didn&#x2018;t know what it was
87% who answered yes on the question, nearly everybody came up with a different descriptionSource: Arthur D. Little
In Gartner&#x2018;s &#x201C;2006 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle&#x201D;, Web 2.0 was selected as one of the top key technologies over the coming ten years.
What Web 2.0 actually stands for seems very unclear.
When Basecamp asked 1000 of their customers what Web
2.0 meant to them:
13% answered that they didn&#x2018;t know what it was
87% who answered yes on the question, nearly everybody came up with a different descriptionSource: Arthur D. Little
In Gartner&#x2018;s &#x201C;2006 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle&#x201D;, Web 2.0 was selected as one of the top key technologies over the coming ten years.
What Web 2.0 actually stands for seems very unclear.
When Basecamp asked 1000 of their customers what Web
2.0 meant to them:
13% answered that they didn&#x2018;t know what it was
87% who answered yes on the question, nearly everybody came up with a different descriptionSource: Arthur D. Little
In Gartner&#x2018;s &#x201C;2006 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle&#x201D;, Web 2.0 was selected as one of the top key technologies over the coming ten years.
What Web 2.0 actually stands for seems very unclear.
When Basecamp asked 1000 of their customers what Web
2.0 meant to them:
13% answered that they didn&#x2018;t know what it was
87% who answered yes on the question, nearly everybody came up with a different descriptionSource: Arthur D. Little