2009 Food Trends
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For 2009, Pavone creating a food trends presentation based on research we conducted with our contacts throughout the industry. This is that specific presentation. If you are interested in seeing our 2010 Food Trends presentation, please contact us.
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2009 Food Trends
- 1. SIX GROCERY TRENDS FOR CPG
- 2. WHO WE ARE
- 5. WHY IS 2009 DIFFERENT?
- 6. THE ECONOMY
- 7. BAD FINANCIAL DECISIONS LEAD TO DIRE CONSEQUENCES
- 8. BAD FINANCIAL DECISIONS LEAD TO DIRE CONSEQUENCES
- 9. 97 % of families are looking for more ways to save vs. a year ago. – Unilever Suavonomics Survey, 12.08
- 10. “ Fearful that economic conditions could get worse and stay that way... Americans are showing an enthusiasm for thriftiness not seen in decades.” – “ The New Frugality: Americans return to thriftiness,” Associated Press, 11.08
- 12. WANT CHANGE
- 13. WANT CHANGE
- 15. TREND #1: THE RISE OF PLACE-BASED
- 16. THE RISE OF PLACE-BASED Turkey Hill Ice Cream is imported from Lancaster County. Ben & Jerry’s uses Vermont cows. Washington apples. California cheese. As consumers become more wary of imports from China and around the world, understanding that American food is better regulated, fresher and usually more affordable, they embrace foods with a place-based identity.
- 17. Where we make it is why it’s good. It’s a real place. It’s a way of life. And it’s a heritage that we work to live up to every day. Its roots are in a special part of the world called Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, but its appeal is universal and its popularity is spreading. Food is an important part of our life here, and it’s always been that way. The Pennsylvania Dutch are famous for home cooking with homegrown ingredients. You can count on Lancaster County meals to be hearty and wholesome, made from scratch, and served with pride. Some people say we save the best for last, with our freshly baked cakes, pies, and cookies – and, of course, any one of the rich, creamy frozen desserts fresh from Turkey Hill Dairy.
- 18. “ There’s a renewed interest in place-based products. It’s not hard to figure out why. Places stand for integrity, quality and authenticity. Not every place is as meaningful as Lancaster County, but a consumer still wants to know if it’s from Ohio or China.” – Dr. John Lord, Marketing Professor, St. Joseph’s University
- 19. 43 % say it is “very important” to know where food products come from, including dairy, produce, meat, seafood, baked goods and processed foods. – “ Label Reading from a Consumer Perspective,” The Hartman Group, 12.07 39 % say they are concerned about where ingredients come from.
- 24. TREND #2: SCRAMBLED MEALS
- 25. SCRAMBLED MEALS Breakfast has become a popular choice for dinner. As consumers bring popular breakfast foods like eggs and pancakes into lunch and dinner, they will be open to new ways to combine less traditional breakfast foods into the mix. CPG brands that can develop innovative breakfast offerings will meet the consumers’ desire to eat breakfast all day long.
- 27. EGG WHITE VEGGIE FLATBREAD SANDWICH EGG WHITE TURKEY SAUSAGE FLATBREAD SANDWICH
- 31. VALENCIA VALENCIA WITH MANGO PEACH PAPAYA AND MANGO INDIAN RIVER GRAPEFRUIT POMEGRANATE BLUEBERRY RASPBERRY ACAI
- 34. TREND #3: ORGANIC GETS CHEAP
- 35. ORGANIC GETS CHEAP People are watching every penny. It’s getting harder to justify spending more on organic. But some CPG products have cracked the code, and are reaping increased sales in a poor economy. Consumers haven’t lost the desire for organic goods, but they must be able to afford them.
- 36. say organic is better for their family’s health prefer to buy organic when it’s comparably priced – Pavone Online Survey, “Organic Vs. All Natural,” 5.09 76 % 78 %
- 38. “ For a while, organic was skimming off the top at premium prices. The skimming phase is done. If marketers want to grow this category, they’re going to have to go for real market penetration, and in order to do that, they’re going to have to address the issue of price. ” – Dr. John Lord, Professor of Marketing, St. Joseph’s University
- 42. – Pavone Online Survey, “Organic Vs. All Natural” 5.09 say all-natural is better for their family’s health prefer to buy all-natural when it’s comparably priced 74 % 76 %
- 44. TREND #4: HOME EC 101
- 45. HOME EC 101 Not only are more people cooking at home, but more people are learning to cook at home. CPG brands that understand they are dealing with a large number of first-time cooks will prosper. These brands must provide solutions for beginners that will also appeal to more experienced cooks.
- 46. THE TOP-RATED COOKING SHOW IN 1974
- 48. circulation at an all time high Source: Media kits and audited circulation numbers from each medium
- 49. cookbook sales up* * Nielson BookScan, sales up 9% over same store sales in 2008
- 50. MEDIA MIX-UP ALLRECIPES.COM 8.4 million unique visitors a month BETTER HOMES AND GARDENS 7.6 million monthly circulation Source: Media kits and audited circulation numbers from each medium
- 51. “ Sur La Table says sales at its established stores have risen 4.9% this year.” “ Wal-Mart … says sales of housewares, including cooking and dining items and small appliances, were strong in February.” Source ‘Recession stirs up at-home cooking in a weak economy,” New York Times, March 31, 2009
- 52. “ As people eat out less and eat at home more, they’re baking again. Bisquick, the multi-purpose flour mix first introduced in the Great Depression, posted a 24% sales spike in the first half of 2009. “ Flour sales are up 34% ... and the baking division as a whole is up 7% for the first half of the year.” Source: ‘Pillsbury Sales are Popping,” Minneapolis Star-Tribune, January 17, 2009
- 54. TREND #5: NICE GUYS FINISH FIRST
- 55. NICE GUYS FINISH FIRST On the tails of corporate bailouts, food contamination, and environmental scandals, consumers are looking for food brands that interact in socially, fiscally and environmentally responsible ways. CPG brands will find that “who you are” will become almost as important as “how you taste” or “what you cost.”
- 64. TREND #6: BRAND SWITCH
- 65. BRAND SWITCH When consumers start changing cooking and shopping behavior, established brand leaders are at risk. Not only will consumers switch more frequently to challenger brands, they will venture into new categories and change the fundamentals of their shopping behavior as they struggle to balance cost, health, convenience and variety.
- 66. Routine behavior Habitual, sometimes disrupted by external cues, reliable, repeatable Limited problem solving Unfamiliar with choices, but familiar with the product Extensive problem solving Unfamiliar with the product, unfamiliar with the choices
- 67. 59% say they read labels more frequently now vs. a year ago. – “ Label Reading from a Consumer Perspective,” The Hartman Group, 12.07
- 68. 42% have switched to less expensive brands. – Parade Magazine, “What America Really Eats,” 11.08
- 69. Half of Americans say they’ll spend more time in stores to find the best possible prices. – Boston Consulting Group, “Household Spending Survey,” 10.08
- 70. – Boston Consulting Group, “Household Spending Survey,” 10.08 of Americans say they’re still willing to “trade up” -- spend a bit more for added benefits (down from 81% in ’07) 70%
- 72. SCRAMBLED MEALS THE RISE OF PLACE-BASED HOME EC 101 ORGANIC GETS CHEAP NICE GUYS FINISH FIRST BRAND SWITCH
Notas do Editor
- But enough about us. Let’s talk about you. It’s 2009. And if you haven’t read a headline or a blog or heard a newscast in the last seven months, you might have noticed that things seem to be changing.
- Explain who we are, and what we do
- We have several current food clients, including The Hershey Company, Turkey Hill Diaries (the nation’s fourth largest ice cream brand and number one brand of refrigerated iced tea), Utz snack foods, Empire Kosher Chicken, Friendship Dairies ( a division of Dean Foods, Sour cream, cottage cheese) and the National Watermelon Promotion Board. But we also recruited people from around the country, and in some cases around the world, with top food brand experience as shown here – (LIST A FEW AND MOVE ON)
- But enough about us. Let’s talk about you. It’s 2009. And if you haven’t read a headline or a blog or heard a newscast in the last seven months, you might have noticed that things seem to be changing.
- Let’s start with the obvious. The economy stinks. We don’t know if it’s a recession or a depression or an economic downturn, but it aint good. And everyone is feeling it.
- And while it’s bad enough that the economy is going south, we’re seeing some of our biggest companies going under. But not just because they’re sales are down. For many of these corporate giants, there is a shared opinion that years of bad financial decisions are pulling them under, and that maybe this recession (because that’s what I’m going to call it from here on out) is going to mean that bad financial decisions are going to lead to dire consequences.
- And as more and more homes go into foreclosure, or threat of foreclosure, we’re slowly, slowly, slowly realizing that some of our financial pain lies in personal responsibility. It’s only a whisper right now, but keep this in mind in the months ahead. As the economy trudges along (or stalls) we’re going to hear more about individuals aggressive and often irresponsible use of credit. This is important, because as this theory gains traction, you will see individuals becoming very, very frugal, and very, very tight with their money and their credit as the pendulum swings to the opposite extreme.
- No surprise. The overwhelming sentiment is to save. While we can all sit by and tell ourselves food is recession proof – everyone has to eat, it is also the one area where immediate and substantial changes can be made. Which may explain why the subject of saving on your groceries has become a bit of a national obsession.
- Thriftiness has become cool. Excess is out. Saving money, counting pennies and finding ways to spend less is in vogue, and many marketers are unsure on how to combat this.
- Don’t believe me? Do what Americans do, and go online for proof Frugality is the new black. We not only want to save, we want other to know how good we are at it. The new frugality is the common parlance. NYTimes calls affluent saving Haute Frugality. And these are just three clips from HUNDREDS of THOUSANDS postings on the subject.
- And they want to save money. And will be very focused and creative in finding ways to do that. But please don’t think this trend report is all about making things cheaper. Saving money is a primary driver but it is NOT, I repeat NOT, the only driver for consumers. Although Americans are looking for savings, they are not simply buying the cheapest option, without regard to other factors, other wise they’d all be all Wal*Mart buying store brands and raw potatoes. But they are not. They are still shopping for a variety of brands in a variety of venues. And today we’re going to talk about things that will still be important in this economy, and how other factors, other than low prices, will drive consumer considerations.
- There’s no end in sight. Most of us think it will get worse before it gets better. Some financiers, notably Adrianna Huffington (LOVE that name) are predicting it won’t end until sometime in 2015. That’s a lot of recession.
- And they want to save money. And will be very focused and creative in finding ways to do that. But please don’t think this trend report is all about making things cheaper. Saving money is a primary driver but it is NOT, I repeat NOT, the only driver for consumers. Although Americans are looking for savings, they are not simply buying the cheapest option, without regard to other factors, other wise they’d all be all Wal*Mart buying store brands and raw potatoes. But they are not. They are still shopping for a variety of brands in a variety of venues. And today we’re going to talk about things that will still be important in this economy, and how other factors, other than low prices, will drive consumer considerations.
- We are going to present six trends today. We’ll start by telling you the name, reading the trend verbatim, show you examples of brands that are already tapping into these trends and finish each trend by sharing some ways of implementing these trends in your organization.
- Read
- Okay, so we’re a little biased on this one. We live in a great tourist area. One of our agency’s biggest clients is Turkey Hill Dairy, born and operating today in Lancaster County. They carry the tag “Imported from Lancaster Country and that down-home euthenics has served them very well as they continue to grow and expand from a small East Coast brand to the fourth largest carton brand in the country. If there’s anything people like more than Amish country, well, it has to be …
- Read
- Read
- Florida’s Natural is a consortium of growers, so they know with great certainty that they will never import from China. As a growers consortium, they are the only brand out there that never compromises on origin. They use it to great advantage, as shown here.
- But what if you’re not made in the USA? You can go to Dole’s website and plug in the Farm code, here 7776, and find out more about it, see that it’s certified and even see pictures.
- Frito Lay announced its version of trackable produce in May (09). A new campaign via media and POP will focus on the 80 "local" farmers from 27 states who grow the potatoes used to make its chips. In a new world of better-for-you food concerns, it's not about chips being fun to eat. It's about chips being local. And trackable. A tech toy at Lays.com dubbed Chip Tracker will let folks see where any bag of chips was made. Type in the first three digits of the product code on the bag and your ZIP code and out pops the location of the plant. We can only guess that the same tactic will not be attempted with Frito-Lay’s Zesty Taco Doritos.
- Read and discuss
- Read
- Read
- However, some of these restaurant trends will likely migrate into home cooking. Making home breakfast more exciting is one thing, and nice for the weekend, but as more and more people fix breakfast for dinner, look for them to demand more sophisticated and varietal offerings . This sound bite from Bon Appétit shows some admittedly adventurous offerings, but you can see several items being mixed up with breakfast to add interest, nutrition and to reduce often substantial calories.
- Certainly Dunkin Donuts has embraced proteins with egg white flatbreads, offered with either veggies or turkey sausage – light, protein packed, less carbs – right on the money and reportedly doing very well in sales
- McDonalds just reported (in feb) an 80% increase in sales over same sales last year(MCD press release and reported in Food News .com on 1.30) . I don’t know if you’re going to find two companies with these kind of numbers in 2008 – and McDonalds has done it through a couple of smart strategies that translate into grocery – smaller portions at lower prices, and taking interesting items into breakfast creating excitement at a low price – the southern chicken biscuit was one of their bests selling items, bringing chicken into the breakfast menu. No surprise from the people who introduced steak egg and cheese, and made it their biggest selling breakfast sandwich, and most expensive one Yeah, but that doesn’t really apply to grocery does it?
- Healthy cereal tried to shake it up with Chocolate. A reasonably successful launch
- Eggos is featuring kids’ customizations of its standard Eggos offerings – trying to add variety without actually doing anything differently in manufacturing or by adding new SKUs.
- Tropicana has introduced new Pure juices offering antioxidant superstars of the moment. You may argue it’s not for breakfast, but it is sold with the juice quarts, not single sized, the traditional breakfast juice segment of the cooler.
- Of course there are always some interesting quirks for every trends – Bacon Bloody Mary’s anyone?
- Read and discuss
- Read
- Read Don’t believe me? Let’s dig a little deeper.
- This slide addresses consumer desire., The premium organic market is in trouble, but there’s another market for organic just around the corner. In fact, we’re seeing some of it already.
- Michelle Obama came out on March 10 th with her official stance on healthy, fresh, whole food, preferably organic via a soup kitchen tour promoted by the New York Times. Blogs and Organic advocates have jumped on the bandwagon asking the Obama White House to create an organic garden on the grounds. Most notably, however, is the emphasis she is putting on making fresh and organic food available to every income level , including homeless people eating at soup kitchens. This campaign is indicative of our expectations as nation – we want the good stuff, and we want to be able to afford it.
- Read
- Whole Foods is going to have trouble in this new world. Because they assumed that people want to save the earth at any price. That’s just not true. We’re discovering that smart people can be green and eat well and save the planet and not spend a lot of money. In fact, Whole Foods may become the antithesis of this new movement.
- For every action, there is a reaction - Since 2006, Wal Mart has promised to feature more and more organic, and they have been steadily delivering on that promise, though no one will confuse them with Whole Foods quite yet. While their core consumer is not aligned with the industry’s stereotype of the organic shopper, they may have identified something the rest of us have overlooked. High prices necessarily define the organic shopper, until now. Wal-Mart has reported good results with organic products and has worked to expand affordable, certified organics products, foods and produce. In April, they began selling Sam’s Choice USDA Organic decaf coffee to complement it’s full caf organic offering – and they offer it at about $6 vs. $8-$12 per pound for other organic offerings inside and outside of Wal-Mart.
- This store brand is a great example of what organic will become. Competitively priced with non-organic, but not necessarily cheaper. Good quality. USDA certified. But are people buying this stuff? Meijer's sells it, and they’re located in one of the most economically depressed areas of the country (with the 10% unemployment I mentioned earlier) “The Meijer’s brand of organics are competitive and seeing a brisk business. The growth has slowed, but it has slowed from, say, 50% growth to 15% growth, and 15% growth in this economy is still impressive. People HAVE changed their priorities. Last year, it was (1) health and wellness, (2) convenience and (3) price. Now it’s (1) price, (2) health and wellness and (3) convenience.” Meijer's recently came out with an all natural line, and many other retailers are also having success in store-brand organics.
- In response to repeated questions about organic vs all natural, Pavone commissioned it’s own online study asking consumers about all natural vs. organic. As with organic, consumers are expressed high value and desire for all natural products. If anyone is interested in finding out more about this study, let’s talk more after the presentation.
- Read and discuss
- Read
- Read
- Okay, we totally made this ranking up, but it’s probably true. Julia Childs was one of the most popular of the small handful of PBS-driven cooking shows. She focused on exotic ingredients and unusual cooking techniques that required a day of time and access to authentic French ingredients. While she was a lot of fun to watch, it was pretty unrealistic to try her recipes at home, especially in 1974.
- With cable, we can watch a cooking or food show anytime, day or night. We can often choose from several playing on PBS, The Food Network, Fine Living, via syndicated programming and even on the Green Channel. These TV cooks are celebrities, and because of the wide variety of personalities, cuisines, and skill levels they address, they’ve made good cooking accessible. They’ve also made it trendy and fashionable. Whether you’re a grandma, a science geek, a blue collar bachelor, a soccer mom or a supermodel, you can find a show that speaks to you and your way of life.
- Food magazine sales are up. They were on the rise before the recession, but as the recession gains steam, other titles are dropping like flies, while food magazine continue to increase newsstand sales.
- Same story with cookbooks. As online and brick and mortar book retailers struggle with sales numbers, cookbooks continue to be strong sellers.
- Online recipes databases are becoming so important that recently all recipes.com announced it had become the biggest online recipe resource, with numbers that make it rival BH&G, (regarded as the home pub with the biggest circ numbers)
- From top end to low end, houseware and cooking sales have been strong. Read stats.
- Baking was proclaimed dead (or at least dying) a few years ago. Now baking product divisions are outperforming prepared goods. While General Mills sales were down 33% last quarter, Pillsbury sales were up, led by sharp rises in Bisquick and flour sales.
- Read and discuss
- Read
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- Talk about Trendwatchers names Generation G as the driving marketing trend across categories
- Open Happiness campaign includes dedicates messages via broadcast and online, about their extensive recycling campaign, and their scholarship programs
- True North made a big splash last fall when they began recruiting online for good causes to feature in their commercials. Their tag “Find you true north” is a bit of borrowed good will – they are telling you about good deeds.
- Ben and Jerry’s have made their way as a hippie yippy do gooder brand who also offers amazingly tasty ice cream. They try in all their flavors to pick out at least one or two items in which they can excel – fair trade vanilla, BHG free dairies, and more. But cynics could learn a lesson by noting that there are many ingredients they don’t mention, and by focusing on one or two ingredients, they put a halo over all those flavors that don’t have such and exciting story to tell.
- At Häagen-Dazs® ice cream uses only all-natural ingredients in our recipes. Bee pollination is essential for ingredients in nearly 50 percent of our all-natural superpremium flavors. Our goal is to raise awareness of the honey bee issue so that our communities to work together to bring them back. They encourage people to go to helpthehoneybees.com to find out more….sure, buy more Haagen Daz, but also how to support bee keepers, how to encourage and support bees by what you plant in your yard and garden and research facilities to which you can donate.
- Wal-Mart is making itself a better citizen by making it’s products more responsible – less packaging, more organic…an interesting tactic for the world’s largest retailer and very nicely promoted in store periodically
- Coffee shops and chains have figure out if doesn't hurt anyone to give away a plain cup of joe when the occasion calls for it – here Philly DDs hand out a free coffee in celebration of Eagles’ win – Starbucks done the same for voters on election day, and on other community banner days.
- Read and discuss
- Read
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- Based loosely on Howard Sheth model of consumer behavior: Routinized behavior Familiar with products, familiar with choices - habitual, sometimes disrupted by external cues, reliable, repeatable - buying the same brand most of the time, choosing from a preset matrix of choices. You buy toothpaste all the time. You buy Crest, most of the time, but you may buy Colgate or Aqua Fresh if they’re on sale, and then go back to Crest as a primary brand. When cost, convenience, health or performance are not driving forces, routinized behavior is dominant, but not unmovable. Limited problem solving Familiar with product, but unfamiliar with the choices You want to try Thai food, but don’t know what’s out there. All brands look new, or unfamiliar. You walk into a universe of brands and products that are unfamiliar. Cost, convenience and health are drivers, since you are unsure of performance. This is why brands initially make waves in new categories, but may wane when consumers become more familiar with better performing choices. Extensive problem solving Unfamiliar with the product, unfamiliar with the choices You want to try health food. You’re not sure which foods you should start with, or what brands offer better choices. The process is very unfamiliar. Priority of drivers become muddled as you navigate your way through a new world. This is why organic could grow at a premium price in skimming years, but struggles in penetration. We’re seeing shoppers leaving routinized behavior and slip into limited and extensive problem solving and big brands are usually the worse for it (GM down 33%, remember?)
- Read
- Read
- Read
- Read. There’s still hope. Price is part of it, but value is driving purchase. How and why consumers decide you are valuable is the new factor. You don’t get to rest on laurels, or assume brand loyalty.
- Read and discuss
- And they want to save money. And will be very focused and creative in finding ways to do that. But please don’t think this trend report is all about making things cheaper. Saving money is a primary driver but it is NOT, I repeat NOT, the only driver for consumers. Although Americans are looking for savings, they are not simply buying the cheapest option, without regard to other factors, other wise they’d all be all Wal*Mart buying store brands and raw potatoes. But they are not. They are still shopping for a variety of brands in a variety of venues. And today we’re going to talk about things that will still be important in this economy, and how other factors, other than low prices, will drive consumer considerations.
- And they want to save money. And will be very focused and creative in finding ways to do that. But please don’t think this trend report is all about making things cheaper. Saving money is a primary driver but it is NOT, I repeat NOT, the only driver for consumers. Although Americans are looking for savings, they are not simply buying the cheapest option, without regard to other factors, other wise they’d all be all Wal*Mart buying store brands and raw potatoes. But they are not. They are still shopping for a variety of brands in a variety of venues. And today we’re going to talk about things that will still be important in this economy, and how other factors, other than low prices, will drive consumer considerations.