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The Startup
Business
Plan Model
JEAN-BATISTE SAY
paulshawsmithscientific business strategy
GEORGE BUSH
paulshawsmithscientific business strategy
1,04 m own a business more than 3.5 yrs old
2,5 m are setting up a business
44,4 m are not
entrepreneurial
Source: GEM (2011) and StatsSA (2010)
2,39 m discontinue a business
1,94 m own a business less than 3.5 yrs old
most startups fail
but there is a small group of startups
where almost everyone succeeds
most of the difference between these startups
vs.
can be explained by decisions
FEW
1 Burn the business plan
Source: Lange, Mollov, Pearlmutter, Singh and Bygrave (2007)
“new ventures launched with formal written
business plans do not outperform ones
launched without them.”
Business Plan?
Source: Bhide (2000)
21%
79%
Yes!
No!
No!
No!
No!
No!
No!
Doh!?!
2 Be flexible
AMAR BHIDEWhat is a business plan?
WAGs
Guess?
Guess?
Guess?
Guess?
Guess?
Guess?
Guess?Guess?
Guess?
Did you change or adapt your original idea?
Source: Bhide (2000)
33% 66%
No!
Yes!
Great Idea
Better Idea
Learn
Better Idea
Learn
Learn
Better Ide
Learn
Learn
Learn
Success
Learn
Learn
Learn
Learn
Learn
Learn
Learn
Learn
Learn
Learn
Learn
Learn
Learn
Learn
Learn
Learn
Learn
Learn
Success
Yngve Bergvist
Evan Williams
3 Test your plan
Guess
TestLearn
Guess?
Guess?
Test
Guess?
Test
Test
Guess?
Test
Guess?
Test
Guess?
Test
Guess?
Test
Guess?
Test
Guess?
Test
When do you know to stop searching?
4 Don’t grow until you hit
Product-market fit
Pre-mature Scaling
Idea
(Theory)
Skip the fact finding
Grow the
business
No
Facts
paulshawsmithscientific business strategy
paulshawsmithscientific business strategy
of high growth internet start ups
fail due to premature scaling.
Source: Start Up Genome Report(2011)
times faster than startups
that scale prematurely
Startups that scale
properly grow about
Source: Start Up Genome Report(2011)
Learn
Learn Learn
Learn Learn
Learn Learn
Learn
Plan A Plan A1 Plan A2
1 2
Plan A3Plan BPlan B1
3
Plan B4Plan B3Plan B2
45
6 7 8
Use the business model canvas
Alex Osterwalder
How business model generation became a bestseller
How Xerox innovated their business model
Apple iPod + iTunes
Product Innovation
Business Model Innovation
The could copy
competitors
They invented new
business models
Can’t prove in new BM
In advance
Had to test their business
models in the real world
Customer Segments
Value Proposition
Distribution Channels
Customer Relationships
Revenue Streams
Key Resources
Key Activities
Key Partnerships
Cost Structure
Marketing &
Sales
Marketing &
Sales
Marketing &
Sales
Marketing &
Sales
How much did the price of coffee
consumption change in Swiss households
over the last couple of years?
800% increase due to Nespresso
What was Nesspro’s business model?
Exercise: Create a Nespresso’s business model
*
*
*
*
In groups of 3 – 6:
You are the management of the Nespresso division
Which customer segments will you target?
How will you distribute? How will you sell & market?
Who will you partner with? What are your key resources?
* Time: 10 minutes
* Design your business model for the Nespresso system
* What are your key activities? What are your revenues?
* What are your costs?
Households
(espresso fans)
Households
(espresso fans)
Households
(espresso fans)
Households
(espresso fans)
Households
(espresso fans)
Households
(espresso fans)
Households
(espresso fans)
Households
(espresso fans)
Households
(espresso fans)
Nespresso.com
Households
(espresso fans)
Nespresso.com
Households
(espresso fans)
Nespresso.com
Households
(espresso fans)
Nespresso.com
Households
(espresso fans)
Nespresso.com
Households
(espresso fans)
Nespresso.com
Households
(espresso fans)
Nespresso.com
Households
(espresso fans)
Nespresso.com
Households
(espresso fans)
Nespresso.com
Households
(espresso fans)
Nespresso.com
Households
(espresso fans)
Nespresso.com
Households
(espresso fans)
Nespresso.com
Households
(espresso fans)
B2c
distribution
Nespresso.com
Households
(espresso fans)
B2c
distribution
Nespresso.com
JV with machine
Manufactures
For more on starting and growing businesses visit:
www.startupcherry.com
www.facebook.com/startupcherry
www.twitter.com/startupcherry

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Business planning for startups

Notas do Editor

  1. This is a summary of a 2-day course we do called launch.
  2. Just a very quick overview of my journey and how I got here. My journey to entrepreneurship began with wanting to chase a little bit of Olympic glory. Rowing got injured I couldn’t row any more so I started a rowing business. Where I had a factory in Germinston making carbon kevlar rowing boats. The same stuff they make rocketship and lance Armstrong’s bike out of. But soon realized that chasing Olympic glory was a whole lot more fun than building rowing boats. So I quit the business sold out to my partner and decided to get into entrepreneurship education. Starting off lecturing at the university like UJ and WBS. I soon realised what they were teaching entrepreneurs really wasn’t that helpful. So I decided to study the problem doing my masters and now my PhD in predictive models study what really do you need to do to make a business successful. And since then have helped literally hundreds of entrepreneurs get there businesses of the ground.
  3. I am going to start my talk right at the beginning with Jean Bastist say the French economist that coined the world entrepreneur which means to undertake.
  4. Now George Bush in one of his Bushisms said that, “The problem with the French economy is they have no word for entrepreneur.” Apart from the being totally ridiculous statement as entrepreneur is a French word. Mr. Bush is right in his proposition that entrepreneurs create jobs and wealth and solve important problems in society. Sadly a lot of entrepreneurs struggle.
  5. This slide taken from the 2011 gem report and StatsSA says there are about 2,5 million people are all jacked up stary eyed ready to take on the world and are in the process of setting up a business. But unfort, 2,39 million people have subscribed to the notion of if life gives you lemons, say damit and bail and are in the process of closing down the business. So there are a lot of people trying to start business and not succeeding, which is a problem.
  6. Research models were you can break up businesses into different groups
  7. This is one thing were the idea of business plan as spread all over. Of the studies that have looked at business plan nearly all of them show that business plans don’t have an impact on performance, or worse they actually hinder performance. And there are very real reasons why spending a week or 2 writing a business plan is a bad idea.
  8. Also, when you look at the best.
  9. Neither did the founder of Intel corporation the largest manufacture of micro-processors build a
  10. Baby in topless bar. Julius Malema in builders warehouse.
  11. Company White water rafting, survival training, fishing & canoeing. Fine in Summer, but in winter when it was dark and cold – tourist wanted as much to do with him as, a modelling agent would want to Quaizmodo. So, he travelled the world and thought that he would hold a ice art exhibition. However, day before the exhibition the tempraturesunually rose and all the art melting. Being a quick witted fellow. Bergvist decided to hold a seminar on how to make ice art. What he found is that a number of the guest started making igloos and talking about wanting to spend a night in an igloo. So, he chucked on the ice scuplture idea as so the ice hotel was born. 33,000 vistors now visit the Ice Hotel every year and 11,000 guest stay over night making Bergvist very successful in the process.
  12. Evan Williams is an entrepreneur that founded 2 of the top 10 internet sites. Blogger and Twitter. What is interesting about both start ups is that his initial plan or “guess” were different to the final business. Pyra Labs which become blogger was initially a project management software company, a note taking feature of the software was spun off at blogger. Odeo was a podcast company that he realised as going no where, his guess was wrong, he through decided do a brainstorm session that resulted in twitter.
  13. Plan -> Action -> Learn -> Adapt -> Results Make Plans -> Take Action -> Get Feedback -> Record Results 1) Proof of Concept 2) Minimum Viable Business Model 3) Business Model Optimization 4) Early Growth 5) Late Growth
  14. And at each of those stages you have prove that your business model makes sense.
  15. What is pre-mature scaling. No it is not scaling the fish before it’s dead, or getting on the bathroom scale before it is ready for you.
  16. It is when you start growing a business before you have found product-market fit.
  17. One of the best examples of pre-mature scaling was webvan.
  18. A recent study done last year by a group of researchers in silicon valley 3,200 internet start ups found that a full 74% of internet start ups failed because they tried to grow the business. Before they had found product market fit.
  19. They also found that business that found product-market fit grow at about 20 times faster than startups that scale to early. The bottom line is you don’t want to start making moves on that girl until you know she is very interested and will be willing to stick around.
  20. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is
  21. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is
  22. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is
  23. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is
  24. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is
  25. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is
  26. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is
  27. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is
  28. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is
  29. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is
  30. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is
  31. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is
  32. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is
  33. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is
  34. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is
  35. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is
  36. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is
  37. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is
  38. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is
  39. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is
  40. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is
  41. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is
  42. Have recycling product 3 billion francs with one product line
  43. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is Channels - Only through there own channels. Failed business model
  44. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is Channels - Only through there own channels. Failed business model
  45. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is Channels - Only through there own channels. Failed business model
  46. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is Channels - Only through there own channels. Failed business model
  47. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is Channels - Only through there own channels. Failed business model
  48. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is Channels - Only through there own channels. Failed business model
  49. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is Channels - Only through there own channels. Failed business model
  50. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is Channels - Only through there own channels. Failed business model
  51. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is Channels - Only through there own channels. Failed business model
  52. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is Channels - Only through there own channels. Failed business model
  53. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is Channels - Only through there own channels. Failed business model
  54. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is Channels - Only through there own channels. Failed business model
  55. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is Channels - Only through there own channels. Failed business model
  56. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is Channels - Only through there own channels. Failed business model
  57. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is Channels - Only through there own channels. Failed business model
  58. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is Channels - Only through there own channels. Failed business model
  59. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is Channels - Only through there own channels. Failed business model
  60. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is Channels - Only through there own channels. Failed business model
  61. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is Channels - Only through there own channels. Failed business model
  62. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is Channels - Only through there own channels. Failed business model
  63. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is Channels - Only through there own channels. Failed business model
  64. Lets turn it into a tool. Very quickly you map out a business model. What is powerful is Channels - Only through there own channels. Failed business model
  65. Failed business model It was the same product but one the business model failed. The other one it succeeded.