PSD guide document

1. Participatory Scenario Development (PSD)
Modules on Capacity Assessment and Awareness Raising on
climate change in Tajikistan
September 2011
Draft for TOT
Livia Bizikova
1

2. Contents
1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 3
2. Key definitions...................................................................................................................... 4
2.1 Scenarios .......................................................................................................................... 4
2.2 Participatory scenario development (PSD) ...................................................................... 6
3. PSD workshop design ....................................................................................................... 7
3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 7
3.2 Overview of the PSD workshop structure ........................................................................ 8
3.3 Detailed Description of the Sessions .............................................................................. 11
3.3.1 Opening module - Welcome and Introductions ..................................................... 11
3.3.2 Session 1: Drivers of current development and current capacities in the
country/region ..................................................................................................... 13
3.3.3 Session 2: Socioeconomic and environmental trends focused on the key areas in
the country .......................................................................................................... 15
3.3.4 Session 3: Identifying potential future climate impacts and needed actions and
capacities in the context of the scenarios............................................................ 17
3.3.5 Session 4: Identifying potential future climate impacts and needed actions and
capacities in the context of the scenarios............................................................ 19
4. Training sessions and workshop preparation .............................................................. 21
4.1 Preparation for the actual training .................................................................................. 21
4.2 Key budget elements ...................................................................................................... 24
5. Workshop reporting template ....................................................................................... 25
6. Appendix: Workshop agenda ........................................................................................ 27
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3. 1. Introduction
Participatory Scenario Approaches are being increasingly applied when developing
adaptation options in different sectors and countries. For example PSD was applied in the
county studies of the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change study (EACC).1 The
purpose of the PSD in the EACC was to help in anticipating and understanding consequences
of climate change in the context of plausible socio-economic futures with specific focus on
the most vulnerable and then identifying well-suited adaptations encompassing hard and soft
measures to reduce risks and to increase resilience of the systems within the future scenarios
over different time-horizons. In this study the approach was applied to number of sectors
including agriculture, water management, health and trade in number of countries including
Mozambique, Ghana, Vietnam and Bangladesh.
Recently, PSD has been applied in the Climate Risk Management (CRM) initiative2. Here the
PSD was applied at the national level to identify and prioritize climate risks and identify risk
management options that build on the risk and management approaches identified at the local
and regional assessments and take into account national development priorities and plans.
The list of applied countries included Uganda, Honduras, Kenya, Dominican Republic,
Nicaragua and Niger. In most of these countries, PSD was combined with a capacity-building
event during which local and regional policy-makers and other stakeholders were introduced
to and practiced the PSD approach. Afterwards, a number of these stakeholders hosted local
and regional PSD workshops in their countries.
The purpose of this document is to outline:
- Basic key definitions of PSD, objectives and PSD workshops as they are suggested to
be applied on Capacity Assessment and Awareness Raising on climate change in
Tajikistan
- Key elements of the PSD as series of sessions that could be used to deliver PSD
workshops to assess capacities, needs and gaps needed to improve adaptation and
resilience to climate change
- Overview of key steps in preparing a PSD workshop, processing and reporting
Finally, please take this document with caution. The suggested approach will be
adjusted based on a consultation and a training event with a local organization in
Dushanbe in October 2011.
1
http://climatechange.worldbank.org/content/economics-adaptation-climate-change-study-homepage
2
www.beta.undp.org/undp/en/home/ourwork/crisispreventionandrecovery/focus_areas/climate_disaster_risk
_reduction_and_recovery.html
3

4. 2. Key definitions
2.1 Scenarios
When focusing on developing adaptation responses and responses to increase adaptive
capacities and resilience to climate change, efforts may target the global, continental or
country scale to attempt to determine the necessary resources, including overall demand for
technologies, money and information, but it is also beneficial to investigate synergies and
trade-offs of these responses with development goals and desired development pathways so
they fit with key priorities of countries not only focused on climate change. For example
promoting agricultural crops that are resilient to climate change, but also relevant for local
diets, markets are available to sell the harvests and technologies and information for planting
and processing are accessible for the community.
Decreasing human vulnerability by adapting to climate change is a multifaceted undertaking.
Challenges not only lie in the scientific projections of climate change and physical elements
of adaptation design, but also in understanding the human dimensions of climate change
impacts, the preferred means of adaptation and the impacts’ potential unequal consequences
on societal groups. Scenario approaches can be used to assist in linking climate change
impacts information with adaptation mechanisms at different scales by connecting them with
overall development challenges and priorities.
Scenarios are neither predictions of socioeconomic development nor impacts of changing
climate; rather, they are plausible descriptions of how the future may possibly develop, using
recognizable signals from the present and assumptions about how current trends will progress
(UNEP, 2002).3 Scenarios can be used for multiple purposes, including to (Jaeger et al.,
2000)4:
 aid in recognition of “weak signals” of change;
 avoid being caught off guard—“live the future in advance”;
 challenge “mental maps”;
 understand the world better and make better decisions;
 raise awareness;
 test strategies for robustness using “what if” questions;
 provide a common language; and
 stimulate discussion and creative thinking.
The ultimate aim, in most cases, is to:
 provide better policy or decision support; and
 stimulate engagement in the process of change.
In order to fully explore opportunities from scenario approaches, growing attention is being
devoted not only to the developed scenarios, but also to the scenario development process.
This includes increasing emphasis on stakeholder involvement in developing scenarios—
3
UNEP (2002). Global Environment Outlook-3: past, present andfuture perspectives. Earthscan: London
4
Jaeger, C.C., B. Kasemir, S. Stoll-Kleemann, D. Schibli, and U. Dahinden (2000). ‘Climate change and the voice
of the public,’ Integrated Assessment 1: 339–349
4

5. referred to as the participatory scenario development (PSD). Over the last years, a number of
arguments in favour of participation in scenario development have been developed in the
literature, where participation helps to (Patel et al., 2007; Stirling, 2006; Volkery et al.,
2008)5:
 support the democratic rationale for intrinsic social desirability of equity of access,
empowerment of process and equality of outcome, with the aim of countering the
exercise of power;
 give access to practical knowledge and experience, learn about new problem
perceptions and identify new challenging questions;
 gather more diverse, extensive and context-specific bodies of knowledge in order to
take more careful and explicit account of divergent values and interests; as such,
participation is reasoned as being a means to an end rather than an end in itself;
 bridge gaps between the scientific communities and governments, businesses, interest
groups or citizens, thus providing a reality check for research assumptions and
methodology;
 improve communication between scientists and stakeholders and facilitate
collaboration and consensus building on problem solving; and
 increase the salience and legitimacy of the scenario and thus the acceptance among
end users, which helps maintain public credibility and trust in the developed scenarios
and involved institutions, thus providing for more effective implementation of
decisions taken, by providing greater legitimacy and justification.
To date, scenario approaches in climate change research have focused mainly on impacts and
mitigation actions to identify scenarios of potential levels of greenhouse gases, based on
projections of future socioeconomic development and global emission scenarios (Special
Report on Emissions Scenarios, or SRES) and to investigate the potential feasibility of
implementation of different mitigation targets and actions. The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) SRES provided explicit linkages between development choices
and the levels of greenhouse gases, illustrating that development decisions could considerably
alter the level of future emissions and thus climate change impacts (Nakicenovic, 2000)6. In
the context of climate change mitigation, there increasing number of projects exploring low
emissions pathways and related policy options and choices in diverse context with number of
stakeholders including policy-makers, business and industry representatives and non-
governmental organizations discussed potential scenarios of long-term options for far-
reaching greenhouse gas emission reductions. Recently, Shaw et al. (2009)7 applied the PSD
process in British Columbia, Canada, which focused on development scenarios of local
futures under different IPCC scenarios. In this context, the research team and local
5
Volkery A., T. Ribeiro, T. Henrichs and Y. Hoogeveen (2008). Scenario development on a European scale.
Systemic Practiceand Action Research 21: 459-477
Stirling, A. (2006). Analysis, participation and power: justification and closure in participatory multi-criteria
analysis. Land Use Policy 23, 95–107.
Patel M., K. Kok and D. S. Rothman (2007). Participatory scenario construction in land use analysis: An insight
into the experiences created by stakeholder involvement in the Northern Mediterranean. Land Use
Policy 24:546–561
6
Nakicenovic, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., de Vries, B., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S., Gregory, K., Grübler, A. et al. et al.
(2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. London: Cambridge University Press (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm).
7
Shaw, A., S. Sheppard, S. Burch, A. Wiek, D. Flanders, S. Cohen, J. Robinson, J. Carmichael. (2009). How
Futures Matter: Synthesizing, Downscaling, and Visualizing Climate Change Scenarios for Participatory
Capacity-Building. Global Environmental Change 19: 447-463
5

6. stakeholders developed visualized future socioeconomic scenarios based on the IPCC SRES
scenarios.
Combining qualitative stakeholder and quantitative expert information (i.e., climate change
projections and impacts) in PSD offers unique opportunities to mix good data, scientific
rigor, imagination and expertise from different perspectives (Volkery et al., 2008)8.
Qualitative techniques help to encourage discussion, deliberation, and exchange of thoughts
and identify different views on the available responses to climate change, based on
stakeholders’ views, experiences and resources.
Experiences from case studies conducted on climate change in Europe and North America
show that to be effective in designing responses to climate change, the participatory process
should involve experts’ and policy-makers’ knowledge in creating relevant responses that are
the combination of development choices, adaptation options and capacities. Furthermore, the
process should help to create learning opportunities for stakeholders about the impacts of a
changing climate and the implications at the particular level and on particular sectors.
2.2 Participatory scenario development (PSD)
When identifying adaptation options to climate change, we tend to focus on responding
directly to climate signals and climate variability without sufficiently integrating these
responses into overall development needs, priorities and plans. A PSD approach can be used
to strengthen the linkages between adaptation and development. PSD is a process that
involves the participation of stakeholders to explore the future in a creative and policy-
relevant way. PSD is used to identify the effects of alternative responses to emerging
challenges, to determine how different groups of stakeholders view the range of possible
policy and management options available to them, and to identify appropriate public policies
and investment support necessary to facilitate effective future actions.
In using a PSD approach to planning for climate change adaptation, the primary function of
the scenarios is to provide a framework and context within which different groups of
stakeholders can better understand potential climate change impacts and consider and discuss
a range of possible adaptation options, as well as the forms of public policy or investment
support needed to facilitate effective adaptation. PSD approaches help to identify relevant
pathways of autonomous and planned adaptation in the context of development choices and
decisions, while informing actors of potential trade-offs and possible consequences of
adaptation actions.
8
Volkery A., T. Ribeiro, T. Henrichs and Y. Hoogeveen (2008). Scenario development on a European scale.
Systemic Practice and Action Research 21: 459-477
6

7. 3. PSD workshop design
3.1 Introduction
The use of tools like PSD is a powerful means to encourage recognition of significant threats,
to identify responses and to engage people in activities that can help reduce impacts and
increase resilience. Overall, the PSD process serves three main purposes in this project. The
first is assessing current capacities: evaluating types and extent of available capacities
relevant in anticipating and understanding risk from climate change. The second is strategic:
discovering strategic opportunities to increase capacities and resilience that are in line with
other development priorities of the country and region and/or that assist in adjusting
development priorities to increase resilience. This latter purpose is, in the long run, more
important. The third aim is empowering: engaging key stakeholders in debate about
consequences of climate change and building on their knowledge to identify adaptations to
alter the policies and actions in their countries and regions.
Based on these aims, we define the objectives of the PSD workshops as follows:
 Identify key capacities available to the communities that could be used when
responding to climate change impacts and their consequences
 Validate the priority areas listed in the PPCR/SPCR to ensure that the identified
priorities are in –line with key capacities of the communities
 Finally, complement the identified activities in the PPCR/SPCR with further activities
that are considered key form the stakeholders perspective in increasing their capacities
when responding to climate change in the context of other development priorities
PSD is usually applied in a workshop setting and it could be flexibly designed based on
participants’ availabilities and overall preferences for participation. On average, multi-day
events are sufficient to complete a process of scenario development and identification of
capacities needs and gaps, climate change impacts and future priorities. The general rule is
that, as the workshop gets shorter, the scenario process tends to get less rigorous and is often
presented as a brief future visioning exercise. The PSD process could also be divided into a
number of shorter stakeholder meetings if the location permits.
Based on the discussion with PPRC project team members, consultations with nogs and in-
country partners’ recommendations during the inception workshops, the PSD will be
completed in a one and half day9 oblast-level workshop in each of the four oblasts’ of
Tajikistan.
9
However, the organization conducting the workshop could also consider taking more time complete the
workshop in two-days in slower pace based on their and participants’ availability.
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8. 3.2 Overview of the PSD workshop structure
The preliminary workshop agenda aims to work from an understanding of current trends and
capacities to assess future development goals and pathways and their vulnerabilities to
potential future hazards, and identify options that increase the capacities and resilience of
these goals and pathways. Once goals and capacities are identified, they will be presented as
key priorities and then assessed for their resilience. The workshop agenda includes up to four
plenary sessions with two possible presentations on current development priorities and
climate projections. The agenda times are fairly loose in order to create a buffer for
unexpected events during the workshop such as a late start, longer plenary discussions or
more time required for some group exercises. But based on our experiences from previous
workshops, the allocated time for each of the sessions will be enough to accomplish all the
goals, with considerable time built in for participants’ interactions.
During the workshop preparation, we discuss what type of responses we would like to get
from the participants, for example, how specific versus generic we would want them to be
and then up-date the exercises accordingly.
A suggested workshop design is presented in Figure 1 and the detailed agenda is listed in
Appendix 1.
Figure 1. Key elements of the PDS workshop
The opening session includes welcoming of participants, introduction of the SPCR/PPCR
study, discussion of the objectives of the workshops, and emphasis on the importance of the
workshop and of the participants’ contributions to the success of the workshop. The welcome
8

9. speech can be delivered by a member of the United Nations Development Programme
(UNDP) office or another external organization, while the workshop objectives needs to be
delivered by a person trained on the workshop structure, such as the lead workshop
facilitator. During this session, participants should be introduced, possibly with a simple
icebreaker to help participants divide into groups by sector, regions, and so forth.
Session 1 focuses on discussing the current situation and identifying important drivers and
challenges. In plenary discussion, we review the key changes that occurred in the country and
the key forces that initiated these changes. We focus on the key sectors identified during the
inception workshop, but other issues and trends could be included if the participants feel that
they are relevant. Here, we also try to understand the importance of climate variability and
experienced impacts on the national and regional levels. Based on experiences with past
climate hazards and impacts, we discuss the key capacities that people have to respond to the
climate-related threats. The aim is to have a good understanding of how well people are
prepared in the context of other trends. If feasible, here we also include a brief group
exercise, during which participants can briefly specify key trends for their region and also
identify key capacities. The participants are divided into groups (usually 3–4 groups) during
the session or during the break. The main outcome of this session is a set of current drivers,
and a few examples of past climate-related events and related capacities that people can
access to when they need to respond to these events.
Session 2 aims to develop further the list of identified drivers by looking at the range of
possible and desired future trends. This session includes identifying future goals and then
combining them into potential future scenarios (to 2040) and developing the scenarios in
detail by using the participants’ knowledge of the country/region and sectors. This includes
writing how the drivers develop in the future on a post-it note, followed by a more detailed
description that will be typed-up by the group facilitator. Usually, each group will work on a
different region, but two groups can also develop the same region, which increases the
robustness of the results.
Session 3 focuses on introducing climate change projections and then connecting the impacts
with the context created by the future goals. This requires identifying potential consequences
of climate change in the context of the goals and then identifying a set of key responses that
to these impacts. A presentation about climate change, followed by a plenary discussion and
group work, could be a part of this session. Or, instead, we could distribute a hand-out based
on the SPCR Annex 1 document on impacts and vulnerabilities (see p. 38). Having a local
expert who has been briefed about the PSD workshop do the presentation has usually worked
very well. The local expert is able to give examples of projections, examples of similar events
from the recent past, institutional context and other details that participants may ask.
Session 4 assesses the resilience of the system (see definitions in Table 1) by using the four
questions listed in Table 1. The focus here is to look at the flexibility of the system and the
actors who respond to climatic events, learn from their mistakes and address the potential
failure of the system. This is important, because climate change impacts happen under varied
circumstances and require varied solutions; thus, it is important that characteristics and
factors that increase the resilience of the system and people to respond are explored. Once the
groups have identified specific goals/capacities and actions, they are asked to review them
and complete them to increase the resilience of the regional system. Finally, they are asked to
create a timeline of key actions that are needed to build a resilient system. We will compare
9

10. timelines, have a discussion about similarities and differences, and their link to PPRC/SPCR
activities in the area.
Table 1. Key elements, definitions and questions of resilience, taking into account both the
systems and agents operating in the system including watershed, village, landscape, city
The system can shift between sources and modes of service
Flexibility and delivery to meet service needs. Key assets are spatially
Diversity distributed but functionally linked.
There is spare capacity to accommodate demand increase or an
unexpected surge in pressure on system. System components
System Redundancy and and pathways provide multiple options or substitutable
Resilience Modularity components for service delivery.
Is there a spare capacity in the system to address potential
future events?
Failures in one part of the system are unlikely to compromise
Safe Failure the ability of the system as a whole to deliver service
What if does the system fail? Are we prepared for that?
Agents are motivated and able to take timely action when
required, including changes in organization or structure. Key
Responsiveness functions can be restored in a timely fashion after a climate-
and related shock or extreme event
Re-organization
Are people motivated and able to take potentially needed
actions in a timely manner?
Capacity of Priority actions for adaptation are identified and the necessary
Agents resources mobilized for implementation. Lessons are
Linked to Resourcefulness internalized and improved practices or technologies
System implemented.
Capacity exists to identify and anticipate problems. Lessons
from past failures and feedback from users are internalized and
system improvements implemented. Potential future risks are
Capacity to Learn assessed on an ongoing basis.
Do people have capacities to identify needed changes and
revise the system based on past impacts?
Source: ISET, 2011, modified10
Finally, during the closing session we should inform participants how the results will be
used, when and where they can access the report, and other potential future events.
10
ISET (2011). Resilience indicator for 10 Asian cities. Boulder: ISET and Winnipeg: IISD, pp. 25.
10

11. 3.3 Detailed Description of the Sessions
3.3.1 Opening module - Welcome and Introduction
Objectives
1. Introduce the PPCR/SPCR project and the planned investments; this could be
presented by local representatives such as the UNDP and/or consultants
2. Introduce the workshop process
3. Introduce participants and create groups
Key actions to achieve the objectives
1. Introduce the PPCR project:
- Introduce the overall project, partners and key actions taken so far.
- Introduce the planned activities and the planned investments that we will be
working with during the workshop.
- Why are we here? Emphasize the importance of the participants’ input and how
they will be used in the project.
- Introduce the objectives of the workshop:
 Identify key capacities available to the communities that could be used when
responding to climate change impacts and their consequences
 Validate the priority areas listed in the PPCR/SPCR to ensure that the
identified priorities are in line with key capacities of the communities
 Finally, complement the identified activities in the PPCR/SPCR with further
activities that, from the stakeholders perspective, are key activities to
increasing their capacities when responding to climate change in the context
of other development priorities
- Could be done by a local UNDP representative, consultant and/or funding agency
representative
- In the regional workshop, the facilitators will do this introduction.
2. Introduce the workshop and the process
- This type of workshop is fairly new to most of the participants, therefore they need to
have a good overview about the workshop process and how they are expected to
participate (group work and plenaries).
- Introduce the key elements of the workshop (four sessions).
- Provide a detailed overview of the agenda.
- This could be done by the lead and/or co-facilitator.
After these two introductions, answer questions (if any).
3. Introduce participants and create groups
- The workshop is structured around group work; create these groups.
- Overall it is feasible to handle 4–5 groups (fewer is better) and up 10–12 people per
group. In small regional workshops, it is possible that there will only be 1 or 2 groups.
11

12. - Each group will need a facilitator and a note-taker; it is important that both have a
clear idea about the workshop process and it is preferable that they have had training.
Facilitator and the no-taker could easily be one person; it worked that way before
- To divide participants into groups, especially during the TOT, we can use a simple
map exercise where each person has two dots that they place based on:
 Where they are from
 The area where their current projects are located
- The resulting map (see Figure 2, which uses triangles instead of dots) shows
participants’ familiarity with the areas; create the groups based on common areas.
- Relocate people into the groups.
Materials
Printed agenda, workshop scheme with the session, presentations outlining the sessions,
key PPCR/SPCR goals and key sectors identified during inception workshop
These could be put together as one hand-out (could include the notes from the inception
workshop), map (poster size)
Figure 2. Participants indicated their familiarity with a regions in Ghana by using blue and
pink triangles (June, 2009)
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13. 3.3.2 Session 1: Drivers of current development and current capacities
in the country/region
Objectives
1. Shared understanding of current socioeconomic and environmental trends in the
country, with a focus on the key sectors that were prioritized in the inception
workshop
2. Specifying current trends for the regions and, if needed, adding other regionally
relevant trends
3. Basic understating of current capacities that people can access when faced with
threats, especially those related to climate
Key actions
1. Shared understating of current socioeconomic and environmental trends in the country
with focus also on the key sectors that were prioritized in the inception workshop
- If feasible, a brief presentation by an in-country expert could be included to
present key trends such population, GRP, urbanization, land-use change,
agricultural production, resource extraction, health and migration. All of this
information is likely not available, but what is could be presented or circulated
in a 2-page handout that focuses on the strengths/weaknesses analyses done
during the inception workshop and some of the materials use in the report for
PPCR/SPCR.
- Lead facilitator will lead a plenary discussion about key trends in the country
and the regions.
- Record key trends on the flipchart and make sure that information is available
on the sectors that we are focusing on.
2. Specifying current trends for the regions and, if needed, adding other regionally
relevant trends
- In groups, discuss the specific trends in the regions; this should include
looking at the trends in the major sectors that we are focusing on and also
adding some regionally specific issues that the participants consider important
for the particular region (for priority sectors, see Table 3).
- The note-taker will record the notes to the provided tables (see Table 4).
3. Basic understating of current capacities that people can access when faced with
threats, especially those related to climate
- Back in plenary, discuss what capacities people have to respond to threats,
especially those that are climate related.
- Write down examples of capacities on the flipchart.
- Consider gender difference in the available capacities.
- Participants then continue working in groups and list capacities in the regions
(see Table 4).
13

14. Table 3. Key regions, sectors and investments that will be explored in each of the regions
(indicated by x)
Oblast of Tajikistan GBAO Khatlon Sughd Districts of Republican
(Pamir) Subordination (DRS)
PPCR investments
Building institutional capacity and
awareness of climate change among
stakeholder groups (civil society,
media, vulnerable groups—women,
youth, young men and children)
Improving the national hydro-
meteorological monitoring system to
provide timely warnings on
dangerous events and support water
management
Conduct climate science and
glaciology research; develop climate
change models
Replicate and scale up effective
existing land management practices
Rehabilitate Kairakkum
hydropower plant (HPP) as a pilot.
Climate-proofing measures in
vulnerable eco-systems and critical
infrastructure piloted in the Khatlon
target area and Pyanj tributaries.
Key sectors based on the inception
workshop
Agriculture
Energy
Water
Health
Note: The table will be filled during the training in Tajikistan with the local organization
Table 4. Regional trends and capacities
Region Key trends Key capacities
Sector 1
Sector 2
….
14

15. 3.3.3 Session 2: Socioeconomic and environmental trends focused on the
key areas in the country
Objectives
1. Create future goals for desirable and plausible future development pathways for
the regions to 2040
2. Understand how key sectors could change over the selected time horizon and what
kind of reachable goal could be defined
3. Create a narrative that presents the goals as an integrated regional story across all
the sectors
Key actions
1. Create future goals of desirable and plausible future development pathways for the
regions to 2040
- Participants will review the key current trends for their region identified in the
previous session.
- They will use flipcharts and post-its and create a visual for the goals (see Figure
3).
2. Understand how key sectors could change over the selected time horizons and what
kind of reachable goal could be defined
- When identifying the goals, participants will specifically focus on the key sector
and try to envision their future status.
- Participants will also consider gender-specific goals if relevant.
- Participants will be encouraged to connect/combine goals for sectors that are
closely related, such as water and agriculture, forestry and energy, etc.
- A trained facilitator in each group will help in creating these goals and will take
notes during the discussion; the idea is that the goal could be written down is a
short statement, but the facilitator could record more details about the goal in the
provided table (see Table 5).
3. Create a narrative that presents the goals as a regional story
- Review the identified goals and their relationships; consider if the diverse sectorial
goals fit together and if they do not, revise them.
- Prepare a brief presentation (up to 10 min) about the goals and future status if the
key sectors; the presentation have to be recorded by the note-takers. Ideally, a
group member who is not the facilitator should present, unless the group decides
to have the facilitator present.
- After the presentations, a short plenary discussion on the chosen goals for different
regions could be briefly discussed.
Materials
Participants’ hand out, post-it notes, flipcharts, markers
15

16. Figure 3. Example of identified future goals for selected key sectors
Table 5. Table for note-taking
Sector (fill in only those that Goal Description
are relevant)
Agriculture 30% of land used by small
holders
Energy
Water
Health
Other (if needed):
16

17. 3.3.4 Session 3: Identifying potential future climate impacts and needed actions
and capacities
Objectives
1. Understand and identify potential consequences of climate change on the goals
and narrative created for the region
2. Identify available and needed capacities that are necessary to address impacts
3. Identify key additional goals/actions that are needed to address impacts of climate
change
Key actions
1. Understand and identify potential consequences of climate change on the goals
and narrative created for the region
- To begin, information about projected climate change impacts that are relevant
for the country must be provided. Ideally, that could be done by an in-country
expert/researcher that works in this field. We can also create a hand-out based
on the SPCR document Annex 1 on impacts and vulnerabilities (p. 38).
- In the regional/oblast workshop it, would be enough if the facilitator
introduces major climatic trends (use the hand-out).
- Based on the provided information on climate change, participants will review
the goals and identify major consequences of climate change.
- We encourage participants to focus on fewer impacts and their consequences
rather than dealing with too many of them, as answers tend to be very generic
the more they try to address.
- Facilitator/note-taker will fill out a table with key consequences of the impacts
(Table 6)
2. Identify available and needed capacities that are necessary to address impacts
- After consequences are identified, participants are asked to review the goals
and identify specific capacities that could help to deal with the impacts.
- Participants should also consider groups within the population that may not
have access to the capacity (e.g., gender issues).
- It could happen that the goals are resilient enough and they provide enough
capacities, but it could also happen that other capacities are needed. If so,
participants should list these needed capacities.
- Again, here we would encourage the groups to focus only on most relevant
capacities and to be specific.
3. Identify key additional goals/actions that are needed to address impacts of climate
change
- Based on the identified capacities, they could identify additional measures,
goals, actions needed
- Participants could just briefly list these additional measures, etc. Day 2 is more
focused on exploring capacities, goals and resilience, but in case we do not
have enough people on Day 2, we wil have some usable outcomes from Day 1.
17

18. - There will be a brief repor from the groups by a selected member from each
group.
- Facilitator/note-taker will fill up a table with capacities and actions/goals,
which can be written on post-its notes and added the goals (Figure 4)
Table 6. Key consequences of climate change and capacities
Key impacts Description of Available Needed Additional
the capacities capacities actions/goals/measures
consequences
Note: When specifying the capacities and actions, it is perhaps better to not try to link them to
each of the impact, but rather review the consequences of the impacts and identify then needs
and available capacities
Figure 4. An illustrative example of possible outcomes of the session
18

19. 3.3.5 Session 4: Assessing resilience of the future system and identifying actions
Objective
1. Introduce the term resilience
2. Review the system for its resilience
3. Develop action/policy pathways and related actions needed to increase resilience
Key actions
1. Introduce the term resilience
- Briefly describe the key components of the term resilience
- Emphasize the systematic character of the term (flexibility, robustness) and also
the capability for learning and change
- Brief plenary discussion about the elements of the resilience
2. Review of the system for its resilience
- Review the goals, needed actions and additional goals developed on Day 1.
- Use the following four questions to revise the system and focus on identified
needed capacities and actions/goals:
 Is there spare capacity in the system to address potential future events?
 What if the system fails? Are we prepared for that?
 Are people motivated and able to take potentially needed actions in a
timely manner?
 Do people have capacities to identify needed changes and revise the
system based on past impacts?
- When answering the questions, think of gender, minorities and other groups, in
terms of if they even have access to the resilient elements of the systems.
- The facilitator will record the answers as the questions are being discussed.
- Write down key additional capacity and actions/goals needs and, if needed, revise
the needs from the previous day.
3. Develop action/policy pathways and related actions
- Here, try to focus on goals and needs that are also related to PPCR/SPCR
investments.
- Select goals (up to 3) for 2040 and use the created actions, available capacities
and needs to create a pathways of key short-, medium- and long-term actions (see
Figure 5)
- Make notes during the participants’ reporting.
19

20. Table 7. Table for recording the key questions
Is there spare capacity What if the system Are people motivated Do people have
in the system to fails? Are we prepared and able to take capacities to identify
address potential future for that? potentially needed needed changes and
events? actions in a timely revise the system based
manner? on past impacts?
Figure 5. An illustrative example of action/policy pathways linked with goals
20

21. 4. Training sessions and workshop preparation
4.1 Preparation for the actual training
Based on our experiences in the previous projects, communication with the country teams is
important to adjusting the workshop agenda and identifying key participants and necessary
inputs for the workshop. Communication with the in-country teams is also necessary to create
a shared understanding of the potential results the PSD workshop could deliver. This is
important because, although country team members often have significant experience in
conducting interviews, focus groups, facilitating events and poverty appraisals, the PSD
approach is new to most of them.
We would suggest holding up to 2.5 days of PSD training in the country. The length of the
training will depend on its actual purpose. If we use the training to train regional experts so
they are able to conduct PSD workshops, then the training event will be approximately 2.5
days, ideally followed by the actual TOT PSD workshop for the country, in which some of
the trained experts will participate as group facilitators and note-takes. This will provide an
opportunity for them to test their skills in practice and have a ‘learning-by-doing’ experience.
Key elements of such trainings:
- Introducing how the PSD approach fits with other methods applied in the
PPRC/SPRC study and what types of information the teams could expect to generate
by using PSD workshops. If participants are amenable, we would like to show how
this approach was applied on different levels and connected to other approaches, in
some countries referring to previous projects.
- Reviewing the agreed workshop agenda in detail, including the steps of the PSD
workshops, needed inputs and possible outcomes. We will also try to conduct a
simulation of a group exercise focused specifically on the future scenario
development, impacts and resilience as these sessions turned out to be the most
challenging workshop activity in the countries where we previously conducted PSD
workshops.
- Providing advice for presenters should structure their presentations, including length
and format, so the presentations will be most relevant to the workshop participants.
- Reviewing how to process the workshop results, along with suggested ways of
keeping records and notes during the workshops.
Specific workshop preparation issues
Facilitation
In the workshop we would have two lead facilitators for workshops with more than 30
participants. One is the person that outlines next steps and introduces the exercises; the other
person floats around the room to help the groups. Sometimes we would consider having
another facilitator from the country, but only when the person has gone through a brief
training. Each group also need a group facilitator, who helps the group in completing the
sessions. It is important that the group facilitators went through the training.
21

22. Overall, facilitating these types of workshops is fairly challenging, because the facilitator
needs to walk the participants through a number of sessions. These sessions build on each
other, so the facilitator needs to be constantly alert and guide the participants’ progress from
one session to another. This requires repeatedly explaining the group work to participants,
watching the groups if they are working on the tasks, pushing the groups (a bit) if they are too
slow and facilitating plenary discussions. Most facilitators are very good in guiding focus
groups and small sessions when what is needed most is to ensure that people have a chance to
speak, but PSD workshops are more demanding. Finally, sometimes in-country facilitators
could feel uncomfortable interrupting or coordinating their country fellows, especially if they
are more senior, at a higher position, and so forth. Therefore, care must be taken when
selecting in-country facilitators.
Identifying the presenters11
In the workshop agenda there are one or two presentations. Guest speakers and presenters
should be identified and invited early. We need to ensure that presenters understand the
workshop purpose and objectives, the nature of the information we are asking them to present
and the amount of time they have to present it. Also, we need to ensure that presenters
understand there will be time for questions from participants; ask them whether they would
prefer that you moderate the question-and-answer session or if they would prefer to moderate
it themselves. Once speakers have confirmed their attendance, their names may be included
in the agenda, which is distributed with the invitations to participants.
As outlined earlier, we will probably have from 1-2 presentations:
Presentation 1: Presentation provides a review of the past and current trends with focus on
the workshop theme (sector, number of sectors, national level) and also development
priorities, projections and uncertainties in the projections (if available)
Presentation 2: Outlines climate projections for the country, presenting available climatic
variables and, if accessible, impacts on forest, water and agriculture; here we will also
include a presentation on specific climate change impacts if available
In general, presenters need to focus on results of work, socioeconomic and environmental
trends and climate change projections. Participants do not need to know anything about
(almost anything)—nor is there time available for—methodology or other interesting things
the speaker may be working on that are not directly relevant to helping the participants
complete the subsequent workshop activities. We need to ensure speakers understand this is
not an academic presentation, but a presentation of a very particular subset of information
intended to focus on a very specific set of objectives.
Things to consider:
- The presenters can be either internal (within the facilitation team) or external (outside
the facilitation team). Again, this may depend on the selected scale of the workshop.
For a national level workshop, a well-regarded expert in the field may raise the profile
of the workshop and help secure attendance.
- Ensure that presenters are clear on what it is they are presenting, and why. The
purpose for presenting is to provide participants with a summary of the current
challenges facing them. The purpose for presenting on the projected impacts of
11
The two presentations could be replaced by hand-out provided to the participants as a source of information
22

23. climate change is to introduce participants to the latest data and model results they
might not be familiar with and to paint a picture of what the future might look like
under scenarios of future climate change.
- Presenters should be limited to approximately 20 minutes each presentation, to allow
sufficient time for questions from participants. If presenting using Microsoft
PowerPoint, a good rule of thumb is to present only half the number of slides as the
presenter has minutes. For a 20-minute presentation, you may ask the speaker for no
more than 15 slides summarizing the necessary information.
- For the presentation on climate change in particular, presenters should conclude their
presentations with one slide summarizing the expected future climate changes for the
country. This list will be used in the following session on Climate Change Impacts,
when participants identify which of the expected future climate changes will have the
most consequences for their geographic area.
Note-taking and report preparation
For the report preparation, it is important to save all the materials produced during the
workshop. This, for example, means taking the notes on the flipchart, taking the created
scenarios with the post-it notes developed in groups and also materials and visuals developed
during the plenary sessions. We often save these materials and also make high resolution
pictures so we are able to read what is on the pictures. Another source of information from
these workshops is the information that the participants provide during group work, report-
back sessions and plenary discussions. Therefore, it is crucial to take detailed notes when the
participants report back on the outcomes of their groups’ works. This material could be used
to complement the created written material in groups, because in the written material there
are often only brief notes on the discussed issues, while the presentation provides wider
context and sometimes examples as well.
This means that the facilitators should agree beforehand who will be taking notes during the
plenary sessions and reporting back. We would need to also agree who will be taking notes in
the groups by using the provided tables. It could be the facilitator or another person, but it is
preferable somebody who was in the training.
Finally, if the workshop is facilitated by external people, it is important to explain to them the
importance of the note-taking during the plenary/group sessions and preserving the workshop
outcomes, as these are the only outputs that they will have after the workshops to use to
prepare the report.
23

24. 4.2 Key budget elements
Workshop venue:
Room rental for approximately 25–40 people
Projector (beamer) rental (if needed)
Refreshments: 2 lunches plus 4 coffee breaks per up to 25 - 40 people
Workshop materials:
If presentations are being done then it is preferable the presentations are handed to the
participants
Brief handout on PSD process by using the presentation that will be projected during the
workshop
Post-it notes (will bring them, Livia)
Flipchart
Markers
Flipchart paper
Glue stick, tape
Country map (bigger, poster size)
For the regional/oblast workshop things listed above will change based on the number of
participants and groups; very likely there will be only 1 or 2 groups.
24

25. 5. Workshop reporting template
It is enough to list the gathered information in bullet points, but try to add as much details as
possible. Also attach the tables with the notes, pictures of flipcharts notes with post-it notes
(if available) and rewritten flipchart notes and posit-it notes as Word documents or Excel
tables. If participants agree please also take few pictures of them working together, talking
and presenting.
Brief overview of the community(ies), in which the workshop is taking place:
- Population structure
- Major sources of livelihoods
- Level of migration
- Challenges and any interesting information
Workshop overview:
- Number of participants, their affiliation and/livelihoods
- Location of the workshop
- Lengths of the workshop
-
Session 1:
- Overveiw of the current trends (if possible illustrate them by examples) try to focus
on the sectors that were identified for the oblast, but be opened to other sectors if
participants would like to include it
- If mentioned list major climate hazards experiences (and other hazards if listed)
- Gender aspects
- List and discuss major capacities that people use to cope with these threats – provide
examples of how the capacity was used to cope with the threat
- Include notes in tables
Session 2:
- Introduce the key SPCR/PPCR investments that are relevant for the oblast
- List goals and illustrate them what they mean in the context of the region/oblast
- Record synergies, conflicts between the goals
- Record how participants are describing the goals (narrative)
- Save the tables with notes
Session 3:
- List and describe impacts that were discussed with participants
- List and describe consequences of the impacts that were discussed with participants
- List and describe available and needed capacities – please try to be specific about both
groups
- Consider gender-specific examples
- Described identified needed actions and revised goals
- Save the tables and produced materials
Session 4:
- Record key conclusions of the resilience review of the system (question by question)
25

26. - Rewrite the pathway by indicating the goals and actions and add arrows if people use
to connect them (as it is presented in Figure 6)
Conclusions:
- In bullet points please list the key issues in each of the oblasts
- Provide conclusions about specific actions that could be linked to the PPCR
investment in the area
- Mention any other important issues relevant for the context of this project that came
up during the workshops
26

27. -
6. Appendix: Workshop agenda
Participatory Scenario development workshop
Agenda
Logos
Date and Place
Workshop title
Day 1
8:30 – 9:00 Registration
9:00 – 9:30 Welcome and Introductions
Local representatives (UNDP, consultants)
Lead Facilitator
Introducing the PPCR study including the key measures/investments
Outlining the purpose of the workshop and expected outcomes
9:30 – 10:45 Drivers of current development and current capacities in the
Session 1
country/region
Plenary discussion and group work
10:45 – 11:00 Break
11:00 – 12:30 Socioeconomic and environmental trends focused on the key areas in the
Session 2
country
Plenary discussion and group work
Group Briefings
12:30 – 13:30 Lunch
13:30 – 14:00 Overview of Climate Change and Impacts
Local climate change expert
Presentation and Plenary discussion
14:00 – 16:00 Identifying potential future climate impacts and needed actions and
Session 3
capacities
Group Activity
15:30 Working coffee break
Group report-back on key climate hazards and major vulnerabilities of the
future scenarios
16:00 – 17:00 Group presentations on climate impacts and adaptation, capacities to
respond to impacts
17:15 Wrap-up of day 1
27

28. Day 2
9:00 – 9:30 Welcome Back & Opening Remarks
9:30-11:00 Assessing resilience of the future system
Introduction of the key elements of resilience
Review of the system for its resilience
Plenary discussion
Group Activity
Session 4
11:00 – 11:15 Break
11:00 – 13:00 Moving Forward: Identifying actions to increase resilience at the regional
and country level Linking
Developing action/policy pathways and related actions
Group Activity
Presentations by groups
Plenary discussions
13: 00 – 13.30 Next steps and closing; Workshop Evaluation
13:30 – 14:30 Lunch
Note: The starting time and the breaks could be change, but the length of the sessions should be kept
untouched to provide enough time for their completions.
28

29. NOTES
29

30. 30