Dirk Helbing, ETH, Zürich, Switzerland FuturICT – Global participatory computing for our complex world http://obc2012.outofthebox.si/

1. Participatory Computing for Our Complex World
Dirk Helbing (ETH Zurich)
New science and technology to
understand and manage our
complex world in a more
sustainable and resilient way

2. What It Means to Live in an Information Age
§ Global ICT = most complex artifact
§ Billions of interacting components
§ Many autonomous decisions
§ à Artificial social systems!
§ Example: Computer-based
automated financial trading
§ Too much data
§ Too much speed
§ Too much complexity
ICT is part of the problem, but
also key to the solution! Need to
understand socially interacting
systems!

3. Alex (‚Sandy‘) Pentland of the MIT Media Lab Says:
§ Our financial, transportation, health
system are broken
§ We need to develop a
decentralized adaptive approach
§ Managing complexity requires real-
time data mining
The more complex our systems
become, the more do we need a
decentralized management concept
based on facilitating favorable self-
organization. This requires real-time
data to allow for flexible, adaptive
response.

4. Networking is Good … But Promotes Cascading Effects
§ We now have a global exchange of people,
money, goods, information, ideas…
§ Globalization and technological change have
created a strongly coupled and
interdependent world
Network infrastructures create
pathways for disaster spreading!
Need adaptive decoupling strategies.

5. Are Derivatives Financial Weapons
of Mass Destruction?
Buffett warns on investment 'time bomb'
Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction "
Warren Buffett
The rapidly growing trade in derivatives poses a "mega-catastrophic
risk" for the economy ..., legendary investor Warren Buffett has warned.
The world's second-richest man made the comments in his famous and plain-spoken
"annual letter to shareholders", excerpts of which have been published by Fortune
magazine.
The derivatives market has exploded in recent years, with investment banks selling
billions of dollars worth of these investments to clients as a way to off-load or manage
market risk.
But Mr Buffett argues that such highly complex financial instruments are time bombs
and "financial weapons of mass destruction" that could harm not only their buyers
and sellers, but the whole economic system. (BBC, 4 March, 2003)

6. The Flash Crash on May 6, 2010
600 billion dollars evaporated in 20 minutes
The flash crash turned solid assets into penny stocks within minutes.
Was an interaction effect, no criminal act, ‘fat finger’, or error.

7. Cascading Effects During Financial Crises
Video by Frank Schweitzer et al.

8. Cascading Effect and Blackout in the
European Power Grid
Failure in the continental European electricity grid on November 4, 2006
EU project IRRIIS: E. Liuf (2007) Critical Infrastructure protection, R&D
view

9. Revolutions: Another Cascading Effect
?
?
The Arabic Blogosphere

10. Political Cascading Effects
Transition from hierarchies to
democracies
(source: Jürgen Mimkes)
hierarchy
transition
democracy
W orl d GNP and f ertility
G N P pe r p e r s on in US $
35 .0 00
h iera rc hies
30 .0 00
tran sitio n
25 .0 00 d em oc ra cies
20 .0 00
tran sitio n lin e
15 .0 00
de m o c r ac i es
10 .0 00
5 .0 00 h i e ra r c h i es
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
fe rt i li t y f, c h i ld re n p e r w o m e n

11. Need New Science to Fill Knowledge Gaps
For 30 years or so have we globalized our
world and pushed for technological
revolutions, but the global systems science
to understand the resulting complex systems
is lacking.
1. Science of systemic risks
2. Practically relevant theory of complex
systems
3. New data science
4. Integrated systems design to manage
complexity
5. Coevolution of ICT with society

12. Our Thinking Determines What We See …

13. …And What We Can’t See…!
We need to overcome the
limitations of our conventional
thinking!

14. The Need to Look Behind What Our Senses Tell Us
Geocentric Picture:
Epicycles around the Earth
Heliocentric Picture:
Elliptical paths
around the sun

15. Emergent Phenomena in Pedestrian Crowds
At high densities, several people
may compete for the same gap and
block each other. This constitutes a
conflict and causes intermittent
outflows and a faster-is-slower
effect.
At low densities:
At large
self-organized lane formation,
densities:
like Adam Smith’s invisible hand
coordination
breaks down

16. Low Predictability Due to the"
Sensitivity to Varying Model Parameters
360
340
Wet Bench in Semiconductor Production
320
300
280
260
DS 240
220
200
180
Chemical Water Chemical Water
GC Chemical Water Dryer Park Positions Input,
160
Output
140
120
100
89
180 240
01-DHF
critical ontime
01-ST_dhf
380460540620 300 360 420
02-QDR_1 03-SC_1
380460540620 300 360 420
04-QDR_2 06-SC_2
380 460540620
07-QDR_3
510 570
08-DMG
Throughput
TEST_1
TEST_2
TEST_3
Analyse software
266,8
255,9
246,1
Production machine
150,9
155,5
178,4
Difference in w/h
115,9
100,4
67,7

17. Paradoxical Slower-Is-Faster Effect
in Chip Production
Slower-is-
faster
effect
Old recipe: New recipe:
ca. 170/h
ca. 230/h

18. Instability: John D. Sterman’s Beer Game
Perturbations in demand amplify

19. As Coupling Gets Stronger, System Behavior Can
Change Completely: Traffic Breakdowns
Thanks to Yuki Sugiyama
Capacity drop,
when capacity
is most
needed!
At high densities, free traffic flow is unstable:
Despite best efforts, drivers fail to maintain speed

20. As Coupling Gets Stronger, System Behavior Can
Change Completely: Crowd Disasters
Love Parade Disaster in Duisburg, 2010
At low densities:
self-organized lane formation,
like Adam Smith’s invisible hand
At large densities: coordination breaks down

21. Strongly Coupled and Complex System Behave
Fundamentally Different
1. Faster dynamics
2. Increased frequency of extreme
events – can have any size
3. Self-organization dominates
system dynamics
4. Emergent and counterintuitive
system behavior, unwanted
feedback, cascade and side Change of perspective (from a
effects
component- to an interaction-
5. Predictability goes down
oriented view) will reveal new
solutions!
6. External control is difficult
7. Larger vulnerability
Need a science of multi-level
complex systems!

22. Instruments to Explore the World
Connect web experiments with data mining and
modelling tools to reach an acceleration of knowledge
generation as in the Human Genome Project
Hubble, Nasa

23. Build platforms
to explore & interact
What for?
Turn knowledge into wisdom
People
What is?
What if?
Create systems
Data
provide data
Models
Develop models
to sense & create new technology
to simulate &
understand
predict
Turn data into information
Turn information into
knowledge

24. Platforms
to explore & interact
Global
Participatory
Platform
Innovation
Accelerator
Planetary
Living
Systems
Nervous
provide data
Earth
Models
to sense & System
create new technology
Simulator
to simulate &
understand
predict

25. The FuturICT Knowledge Accelerator
Thanks to Michael Mäs
Humanities
Qualitative Quantitative Economics
Sociology
Sociology
Crowd Computational
Data Science
Complexity
Sourcing
Social Science
PNS
Science
GPP
LES
Integrating the best knowledge from the social, natural, and engineering
sciences, particulary social sciences, complexity sciences, and ICT

26. Platforms
to explore & interact
Global
Participatory
Platform
Innovation
Accelerator
Planetary
Living
Systems
Nervous
provide data
Earth
Models
to sense & System
create new technology
Simulator
to simulate &
understand
predict

27. Crowd-Sourcing 3D Environments
See also Open Streetmap - the free Wiki world map

28. More Sustainability and Resilience through
Collective, ICT-Enabled (Self-)Awareness
1. Goal: Measure the world’s state
and ‘social footprint’ in real
time, detect possible threats
and opportunities
2. Use smartphones, social media,
digital news sources, sensors…
3. Incentives to provide data
4. Control over own data
5. Privacy-respecting data mining
Requires a ‘Planetary Nervous System’
Painting by Maurits Cornelis Escher
to answer ‘what is’ questions and a
Examples: Open streetmap,
‘Living Earth Simulator’ to answer
earthquake sensing and warning
‘what if’ questions.

29. New Compasses for Decision-Makers
Consider social capital:
§ Solidarity, cooperativeness,
§ compliance,
§ reputation, trust,
GDP
§ attention, curiosity,
§ happiness, health,
§ environmental care…
Goal: Create
indices better
than GDP/capita,
considering health, Green = Happiest
Blue
environment, social Purple
well-being, …
Orange
to promote
Red = Least Happy
sustainability
Grey = Data not available
Happiness

30. Platforms
to explore & interact
Global
Participatory
Platform
Innovation
Accelerator
Planetary
Living
Systems
Nervous
provide data
Earth
Models
to sense & System
create new technology
Simulator
to simulate &
understand
predict

31. Building FuturICT’s Living Earth Simulator
"
Analysis of “What if …” Scenarios
Data
Models Forecasts
demographic
infection
data
contact
network
models
transport
+
=
data
multi-
scale
geographic
models
...complexity...
data
agent-
based
models
scenario
predictions § Integrate data and models
analysis Validation
§ Scale them up to global scale
§ Make them more accurate
priorities policies (thanks to Alex Vespignani)
Possibilities are limited, but even short-term prediction can be useful,
as weather forecasts or new traffic light controls show.

32. Modelling the global spread of H1N1,"
combining models of epidemiology and global travel data

33. Building FuturICT’s Living Earth Simulator
§ Integrate existing models (traffic,
production, economic system, crowd
behavior, social cooperation, social
norms, social conflict, crime, war…)
§ Scale them up to global scale
§ Increase degree of detail, accuracy
(statistical and sensitivity analysis,
calibration, validation, identification of
crucial and questionable modeling
assumptions,…)

34. Managing Complexity: Is It a Lost Battle?
§ In a strongly varying world, strict stability and control is not possible
anymore or excessively expensive
§ Example: Public spending deficits
§ Hierarchically organized structures have a
critical size, beyond which they become unstable
§ Examples: Decay of Soviet Union; many failed mergers in the last
decade (Daimler-Chrysler, BMW-Rover, Allianz-Dresdner Bank, …)
§ A paradigm shift towards flexible, agile, adaptive systems is needed,
possible - and overdue!
Boeing 747: Constructed for stable flight
Su-47: Utilizes dynamic instability

35. How to Utilize Properties of Complex Systems?

36. Managing Complexity: Modifying Interactions
Allows to Promote Favorable Self-Organization

37. Self-Control of Traffic Lights: Making More Out of
Scarce Resources
Smarter Cities
Inspiration: Self-organized
oscillations at bottlenecks
Measurement
input
Optimal
compromise
between
coordination and
Licensing Opportunity
local flexibility

38. Avoiding Crowd Disasters
Flow Monitoring in 2007
Situation in 2006
§ Avoiding crossing
and counter-flows
§ Real-time flow
monitoring
Beneficial for all mode
§ Adaptive rerouting
of transport and for
the environment
§ Contingency plans
October, 3rd, 2011
Resilient Flow Organization in 2007
STS Forum, 8th Annual Meeting, Kyoto
38

39. Conflict in the Middle East: Possible Future
Scenarios
‘Business as Usual’ Clinton Parameters

40. Platforms
to explore & interact
Global
Participatory
Platform
Innovation
Accelerator
Planetary
Living
Systems
Nervous
provide data
Earth
Models
to sense & System
create new technology
Simulator
to simulate &
understand
predict

41. An Open, Transparent Platform for Everyone
§ Goal: An open platform for everyone,
overcome “black holes” for data and
data fragmentation
§ Transparent data sources and quality,
transparent algorithms, transparent
results
§ Potentials: New services and jobs,
less barriers for social, economic and
political participation
§ Problem: A new public good, requiring
mechanisms to avoid data pollution,
manipulation, misuse, privacy
intrusion, cybercrime
§ How to promote responsible use?
§ Need to develop a Trustable Web, a
self-regulating information ecosystem

42. Decision-Making Support
Debate Platforms & "
Argument Maps

43. World of Modelling for Simulation
App Developer Toolkit &
Computational Modeling App Store,
incl. Commercial Software/Services

44. Interactive Virtual Worlds for Exploration
Multi-player serious online games "
across diverse platforms

45. Interactive Virtual Worlds as Experimental Testbed
For example different financial architectures, voting rules,
transparency and privacy settings, etc.

46. Platforms
to explore & interact
Global
Participatory
Platform
Innovation
Accelerator
Planetary
Living
Systems
Nervous
provide data
Earth
Models
to sense & System
create new technology
Simulator
to simulate &
understand
predict

47. Sparking Off Innovations by ‚Hilbert Programs‘
???
+ Funding

48. Socio-Inspired ICT
Understanding the hidden laws and processes of society
Development a new wave of robust, trustworthy and
adaptive information systems based on socially inspired
paradigms.
Facebook is by now
Fundamental transformational effect on ICT and one of the most
Computer Science
valuable companies
in the world (65
billion $)
3. Socio-inspired,
1. Collective awareness
bottom-up
2. Social adaptiveness
self-organization

49. Coming Era of Socio-Inspired Innovations
Understanding socially interactive systems facilitates socio-inspired ICT
§ Cooperation,
Example: A ‘Trustable Web’,
§ adaptability and self-regulation,
reputation-based and self-
§ conflict resolution,
regulating, to keep
§ resilience,
cybercrime low
§ trust,
§ reputation,
§ social norms,
§ values, ethics, and
§ culture
Economic benefits!
New solutions to societal problems!

50. Social Money
Thanks to Frank Schweitzer
and Dirk Brockmann
Treat money as nodes
in a money flow network
rather than as a one-
dimensional entity (scalar),
give it multi-dimensionality, memory, history, reputation.

51. The Challenge of Innovation
Every revolutionary idea seems to evoke three stages
of reaction. They may be summed up by the phrases:
1- It's completely impossible.
2- It's possible, but it's not worth doing.
3- I said it was a good idea all along.
Arthur C. Clarke
The five stages of innovation
People deny that the innovation is required.
People deny that the innovation is effective.
People deny that the innovation is important.
People deny that the innovation will justify the effort required to adopt it.
People accept and adopt the innovation, enjoy its benefits, attribute it to people
other than the innovator, and deny the existence of stages 1 to 4.
Inspired by Alexander von Humboldt's 'Three Stages Of Scientific Discovery'

52. Stop Searching Where the Light Is!

53. Thanks to all supporters!