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a WHITEPAPER from MEDIAPLEX
GETTING IT RIGHT:
THE ROAD
TO GENUINE
MARKETING
ATTRIBUTION
By Matt Anthony
Senior Director – Analytics, Mediaplex
ValueClick, Inc. (NASDAQ: VCLK)
GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION
© COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
PG.01	INTRODUCTION
PG.01	 ANALYTICS SPENDING IS ON THE RISE
PG.02	 ATTRIBUTION TAKES MANY FORMS. BUT ARE THESE FORMS ACCURATE?
PG.03	 THE DANGER OF SIMPLISTIC MODELS
PG.04	 AGENCIES AND ATTRIBUTION
PG.05	 ATTRIBUTION IS JOB ONE
PG.05	 DOING ATTRIBUTION RIGHT:
6 CHARACTERISTICS OF EFFECTIVE ATTRIBUTION APPROACHES
PG.06	 THE CHARACTERISTICS IN DEPTH
PG.06	 1. UNITED, CLEAN, HIGH QUALITY DATA
PG.06	 2. THE RIGHT TEAM
PG.07	 3. CUSTOM, ALGORITHMIC APPROACH TO ATTRIBUTION
PG.08	 4. FOCUS ON CAUSALITY
PG.09	 5. THREE LEVELS OF ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
PG.10	 6. THE WILL TO ACT
PG.11	CONCLUSIONS
PG.12	 ABOUT THE AUTHOR
PG.12	 ABOUT MEDIAPLEX
01
GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION
© COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
You’re proably familiar with the above quote from department store pioneer John Wanamaker.
It’s entertaining of course, but it’s also proof that the marketing attribution challenge is as old as
marketing itself. Every year, hundreds of billions of dollars are spent on marketing tactics – often
with patchy (or even no) evidence that all that money is delivering genuine value to the business.
For decades, brands have struggled to identify accurate ways of
assessing marketing impact. The advent of digital has inspired
tremendous marketer interest in analytics and accountability.
One of the key drivers of this interest is the recognition that brands
need to be more effective at understanding “what works.” A 2012
survey of marketers conducted by IBM showed that just 34%
of marketing organizations have a “sophisticated approach to
‘investing’ marketing resources and ‘engaging’ customers across
multiple channels.”ii
ANALYTICS SPENDING IS ON THE RISE
According to a recent survey of more than 500
leading marketers conducted by Christine
Moorman for TheCMOSurvey.org, the
percentage of total marketing budgets devoted
to analytics is expected to grow by
almost 80% in the next three years.
A 2012 study conducted by Google and
eConsultancy showed that marketers have a
variety of goals for their marketing attribution
efforts, chief among them justifying budget
and improving the marketing mix for better
business results. Given this, accuracy
INTRODUCTION
i
	 Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Wanamaker
ii
	 IBM The State of Marketing 2012: IBM’s Global Survey of Marketers
http://www.slideshare.net/165yohodr/the-state-of-marketing-2012-ibms-global-survey-of-marketers-final
iii
	Christine Moorman and TheCMOSurvey.org 2012 http://cmosurvey.org/results/
“Every year, hundreds
of billions of dollars
are spent on marketing
tactics – often with
patchy evidence that all
that money is delivering
genuine value.”
“HALF OF MY MARKETING IS WORKING,
I JUST DON’T KNOW WHICH HALF.
”
iii
i
8.0%	
  
13.5%	
  
0%	
  
5%	
  
10%	
  
15%	
  
Current	
  Levels	
   In	
  The	
  Next	
  Three	
  Years	
  
Percent	
  of	
  Marke-ng	
  Budget	
  	
  
Spent	
  on	
  Analy-cs	
  Percent of Marketing Budget Spent on Analytics
02
GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION
© COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
is paramount when
estimating the revenue tied
to particular channels or
tactics, since inaccurate
attribution would end up
negatively affecting results.
Since such issues affect
the daily lives of most
marketers, it’s quite natural
that interest in attribution
has become rather keen.
ATTRIBUTION TAKES MANY FORMS. BUT ARE THESE
FORMS ACCURATE?
According to the IBM survey, 73% of marketing organizations attribute marketing effectiveness
to specific tactics in some way. But delivering accurate sales impact attribution across media
touchpoints is rather complicated.
The vast majority of marketing organizations use one (or more) of five
attribution models:
‱	Last-Click (or last View): Gives full credit to the final marketing
event immediately preceding a conversion.
‱	First-Click (or First View): Gives full credit to the first marketing
event to which a user is exposed during a campaign.
‱	Even Weighting: Assigns an equal fraction of the credit to every
marketing event the customer is exposed to prior to converting.
‱	Business Rules Weighting: Applies a set percentage of the credit toeachmarketingevent
precedingaconversionbaseduponapredeterminedweightingscale.
‱	Exponential Weighting: Applies a progressively larger percentage of the credit
depending on how close marketing events were to the time of conversion.
Each of these models is called “rules-based,” meaning that the model is assumed/assigned by
thebrandoragency,ratherthanbeingderivedbaseduponacomprehensiveanalysisofabrand’sdata.
“The vast majority
of marketing
organizations use
one (or more) of
five rules-based
attribution models.”
iv
	eConsultancy and Google Analytics: Marketing Attribution: Valuing the Customer Journey http://services.
google.com/fh/files/misc/marketing_attribution_whitepaper.pdf
62%	
   57%	
  
47%	
  
36%	
  
28%	
   36%	
  
42%	
  
39%	
  
10%	
   7%	
   11%	
  
25%	
  
0%	
  
25%	
  
50%	
  
75%	
  
100%	
  
Jus0fying	
  Digital	
  
Spending	
  
Create	
  Most	
  EïŹ€ec0ve	
  
Media	
  Mix	
  	
  
Understanding	
  
Funnel	
  and	
  Sales	
  
Cycle	
  Length	
  
Correctly	
  
Determining	
  AïŹƒliate	
  
Payments	
  
High	
  Priority	
   Medium	
  Priority	
   Low	
  Priority	
  
Marketer Goals for Attribution
03
GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION
© COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
The Google and eConsultancy study revealed that the majority brands and agencies use the
simpler methodologies to address the attribution challenge. Specifically:
‱	54% of agencies and brands focus on last-click attribution (e.g., crediting an entire
sale to the last touchpoint before purchase).
‱	41% of agencies and 25% of brands manually assign weightings to different channels
and apply those to their impact analyses.
‱	41% of agencies and 24% of brands assign full credit to the first-click a consumer
makes on a marketing experience.v
(Note,figuresadduptogreaterthan100becausecompanies may use more than one method acrossbusinesses,
campaigns,ortimeperiods.)
Inpracticebrandsandagenciestendtochoose
thesimplermethodsforattributingsalescredit,
eventhoughtheirleadersrecognizethatthese
approacheslikelydistortthetruevalueoftactics.
Thesimplemethodsdistortbecausetheyarerules-
ratherthanevidence-based.Attribution“credit”
isassignedratherthandemonstratedthrough
statisticalanalysis.Forexample,whilelast-clickis
themostcommonattribution methodology, it is
also the least trusted,accordingtothatsamesurvey.
THE DANGER OF
SIMPLISTIC MODELS
The problem with these models is that they
are simplistic, meaning that they make broad
assumptions about the data to simplify the
math of attribution. These attribution models
are typically selected because they are easy to
implement, not because they are accurate. It
is natural for business people to want a simple
solution, but simple and simplistic solutions are
two very different things.
v
	 IBID http://services.google.com/fh/files/misc/marketing_attribution_whitepaper.pdf
vi	
IBID http://services.google.com/fh/files/misc/marketing_attribution_whitepaper.pdf
vii
	IBID http://services.google.com/fh/files/misc/marketing_attribution_whitepaper.pdf
vi
54%	
  
41%	
  
41%	
  
35%	
  
13%	
  
29%	
  
19%	
  
5%	
  
54%	
  
25%	
  
24%	
  
20%	
  
16%	
  
10%	
  
9%	
  
7%	
  
0%	
   10%	
   20%	
   30%	
   40%	
   50%	
   60%	
  
Last	
  Click	
  
Customized	
  by	
  Channel	
  
First	
  Click	
  
Unique	
  Methodology	
  
Not	
  Sure	
  
Linear	
  
ExponenJal	
  
Other	
  
Agency	
   Brand	
  
Most Common Methods of Attribution
vii
5%	
  
13%	
  
17%	
  
9%	
   8%	
  
25%	
  
18%	
  
49%	
  
64%	
   69%	
  
61%	
   55%	
  
29%	
   27%	
   23%	
  
14%	
   14%	
  
0%	
  
10%	
  
20%	
  
30%	
  
40%	
  
50%	
  
60%	
  
70%	
  
80%	
  
90%	
  
100%	
  
Customized	
  by	
  
Channel	
  
Unique	
  
Methodology	
  
Linear	
   First	
  Click	
   Last	
  Click	
  
Very	
  EïŹ€ecIve	
   Somewhat	
  EïŹ€ecIve	
   Somewhat	
  IneïŹ€ecIve	
   Very	
  IneïŹ€ecIve	
  
Marketer Assessment of the Effectiveness of
Attribution Models
04
GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION
© COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
I say these models are simplistic because for them to truly be accurate, then virtually every
one of your customers would have to share a common “path to conversion”. That is absurd.
And besides, if you knew the correct attribution weightings, why would you go to the trouble
and expense of buying a rules-based attribution tool? It would add little value.
Another issue with rules-based models is that they minimize or ignore the importance of
demographic, psychographic, and behavioral user characteristics and their impacts on
conversion. Rules-based models are focused primarily on an imagined sequence of marketing
events, even though extensive research has demonstrated that set paths don’t actually exist.
Using a simplistic attribution approach does make the attribution math easier, but using such
a model without first demonstrating its validity is inherently dangerous. We might presume, for
example, that spreading credit evenly across all marketing events leading up to a conversion
would be more accurate than giving all credit to the final click.
Sounds sensible enough, right? It seems logical that preceding events had to have had at least
some role in causing a conversion.
But did they? Without actually analyzing a brand’s data, that assumption is just as unproven
as last-click or any other attribution model. It can be just as inaccurate – perhaps even more
inaccurate than last-click.
The whole point of attribution is to know rather than guess. To attach
revenue estimates to various ad channels and tactics with the ultimate
goal of changing overall strategy and marketing mix. Getting it wrong
means making changes and choices that could be bad for your business!
You may also be familiar with A/B testing methodologies that
demonstrate the incremental value of marketing within a particular
channel. They are common at the individual media vendor level, but it’s
impractical to use them at the media plan level or in a cross channel analysis at this time.
AGENCIES AND ATTRIBUTION
Brands that rely on their agencies to measure and properly attribute credit to marketing investments
need to be cognizant that most agencies use one or more of the rules-based methodologies. That’s
even though most agency and brand people believe they aren’t very accurate.
That’s not a criticism of agencies. Unless you are paying a separate line item for analytics-based
attribution in your agency contract, your agency’s margins likely force them to use simplistic
“The whole point of an
attribution is to know
rather than guess.”
05
GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION
© COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
models. Expecting agencies to accurately deliver attribution
without paying for it is absurd. Agencies are businesses after all.
Historically, many clients have been unwilling to pay additional
fees to their agencies for analytics-based attribution. As a
result, their agencies have been forced to choose unproven
rules-based approaches. They do their best with the resources
you give them.
If you expect your agency to deliver a genuine attribution
solution, you’re going to need to pay separately for that
service. Today’s lean commissions and fees simply don’t allow room for it.
ATTRIBUTION IS JOB ONE
If maximizing marketing ROI is your leading objective, then finding out precisely how to attribute
credit for brand sales should be your most important challenge for the year. While simplistic
solutions have an appeal, they ultimately put your brand’s success at serious risk. And
here’s the rub: basing your action plan on unverified or simplistic models is a completely
unnecessary risk. It’s actually possible to scientifically estimate the business impact of all
marketing touchpoints, and to use this information to optimize your marketing allocations.
Doingattributionrightisn’taproblemwaitingforsomeonetodevise
a solution. The solution is here today. You can do it right now, and
enjoy its benefits right now. Let me take that statement one step
further.YouNEEDtodoitrightnow.Becauseasbusinessgoalsget
tougher, achieving them will take greater marketing effectiveness,
made possible by genuine insight.
DOING ATTRIBUTION RIGHT: 6
CHARACTERISTICS OF EFFECTIVE
ATTRIBUTION APPROACHES
We’ve talked a lot about how not to go about attributing marketing impact. Let’s spend the
balance of this paper defining how to do attribution right. On a fundamental level, a bona fide
“As business goals get
tougher, achieving them
will take greater marketing
effectiveness, made possible
by genuine insight.”
“Expecting agencies to
accurately deliver attribution
without paying for it is absurd.
Agencies are businesses
after all.”
06
GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION
© COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
attribution solution must have the following six characteristics:
1. UNITED, CLEAN, HIGH QUALITY DATA
2. THE RIGHT TEAM
3. CUSTOM, ALGORITHMIC APPROACH TO ATTRIBUTION
4. FOCUS ON CAUSALITY
5. THREE LEVELS OF ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
6. THE WILL TO ACT
Let’s examine each of these points individually.
THE CHARACTERISTICS IN DEPTH
1. UNITED, CLEAN, HIGH QUALITY DATA
In order for a marketing attribution solution to live up to its full potential, it must be able to bring
together all of your data – cross channel marketing data, audience data, site data, and of course
conversion data (online and offline). All of this information must be combined to create a unified
cross channel dataset. The goal here is to create a “user-eye view” in the data. To achieve this, a
unifiedUserIDsystem(oranaccuratewaytoassociatemultiplesystem
IDstoeachother)isessential.
It’s critical that you identify a solution that can integrate everything
effectively. Data must be standardized, cleaned, and related to other
data in order to deliver maximum value.
What makes it such a difficult data management challenge is
that different platforms utilize different data structures, formats
and taxonomies. For example, working with Affiliate and Lead
Gen data is rather different from working with Search or Display data. After being combined,
data must be properly standardized, cleaned, and classified in order to deliver maximum
value. Given all this, it’s critical that your attribution solution has the data management
capabilities to integrate everything effectively.
For Mediaplex this is not a new challenge. We’ve been collecting and managing data across sites,
Display, Search, Video, Mobile, Affiliate and Rich Media for years. But whether you hire us, build
a team in-house or work with another vendor, ensure that these data management capabilities
are covered off VERY thoroughly. They are absolutely critical to laying the right groundwork for
accurate attribution.
“It’s critical that you
identify a solution
that can integrate
everything effectively.”
07
GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION
© COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
2. THE RIGHT TEAM
To perform statistically sound analysis on brand data, you need – guess
what? – a statistician. Perhaps more than one. The mathematical
challenges of achieving accurate marketing attribution are huge.
The processes required to derive insights and answers from gigantic
cross channel data sets are beyond the capabilities of most marketing
generalists. It takes far more than being a whiz at Excel.
Similarly, it challenges credulity to think that a pretty “attribution dashboard” alone can deliver
true analytics. The biggest issue with SaaS-based D-I-Y solutions is that almost by definition they
must leverage surrogate measures, incomplete math, and simplistic models to make themselves
easy to implement and use. The uniqueness of your brand’s business gets lost when you use
cookie cutter platforms.
There are many great analysts
in the world who aren’t PhDs in
Statistics or Mathematics. But
analysis is different from analytics.
And revealing the true business
impact of marketing tactics requires
analytics, not reporting or analysis.
I’mnotbeingpedantichere.The words
simply describe different things.
If you accept that you need statisticians
to do the job, your next challenge is to
get them on your team. You can hire
them yourself or you can work with a
solution provider that has an in-house
team you can leverage.
In my view, outsourcing is preferable for most companies. Here’s why. In addition to the
infrastructure costs necessary for warehousing, storing  processing the data, the cost
of acquiring a first rate analytics/statistics team is very high. Demand for high quality
statisticians well outstrips supply. According to a 2011 McKinsey Global Institute study, by
2018 the US “faces a shortage of 140,000 to 190,000 people with deep analytical skills as
well as 1.5 million managers and analysts with the know-how to use the analysis of big data
to make effective decisions.” viii
viii
	McKinsey Global Institute, 2011
ix
	 IBID
	
  190,000	
  	
  
	
  -­‐	
  	
  	
  	
  
	
  50,000	
  	
  
	
  100,000	
  	
  
	
  150,000	
  	
  
	
  200,000	
  	
  
	
  250,000	
  	
  
	
  300,000	
  	
  
	
  350,000	
  	
  
	
  400,000	
  	
  
	
  450,000	
  	
  
	
  500,000	
  	
  
2016	
  Deep	
  Analy5cal	
  Talent	
  
Supply	
  
Low	
  Es5mate	
  -­‐	
  2016	
  
Demand	
  
High	
  Es5mate	
  -­‐	
  2016	
  
Demand	
  
The	
  Deep	
  Analy,cs	
  Talent	
  Gap	
  
	
  140,000	
  	
  
285,000
The Deep Analytics Talent Gap
ix
“It takes far more than
being a whiz at Excel.”
08
GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION
© COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
When you outsource to a vendor that already has a top tier team and a world-class data
infrastructure, you avoid the capital investment, hiring and salary expenses as well as the
time lag for finding and onboarding qualified individuals. You can be acting on insights and
optimizing your plan far more quickly with an outsourced model.
3. CUSTOM ALGORITHMIC APPROACH TO ATTRIBUTION
There is no shortage of companies claiming to offer a SaaS platform that can solve all of your
attribution problems. Unfortunately true attribution is both custom and people intensive. You
cannot apply a finite set of rules to every company. Nor can you “guesstimate” the proper credit
allocation with any degree of accuracy. Guesstimation is guess work after all.
As we observed earlier in this paper, there are many possible paths to conversion, not one.
Further, consumer paths are constantly evolving and changing. Don’t rely on any attribution
“solution” that depends upon on unverified “rules of thumb” to attribute impact to marketing
vehicles. To get this right, statisticians must examine your actual brand data to identify the
causative effects of various marketing event types.
An algorithmic solution is the choice of true statisticians. It leverages your actual in-market data
to derive a unique, brand-specific model that can then accurately quantify the effects of your
marketing tactics. It reflects your category, your specific customers, and the state of your brand.
It can be optimized to the specific metrics you care most about.
Further, the dynamic nature of the media environment is constantly
changing the roles that different media play in a customer’s decision
journey. If you develop an allocation based upon the data for a
particular period of time, its validity will likely be very high for a period
immediately following. But over time an allocation loses its validity
as the digital environment and consumer behavior change. Consider,
for example, how Social has upended the conversion process in so
many categories. The easy availability of expert– and crowd-based
recommendations has dramatically altered the buying landscape.
And Social isn’t the only vehicle that is dramatically altering the
journey. As Search becomes more multiplatform and begins to
include more visuals, its role is radically changing as well. Similarly, Rich Media is enhancing the
role of Display in some categories – a banner with a video player has markedly different impacts
than a static GIF format.
“The dynamic nature of
the media environment is
constantly changing the
roles that different media
play in a customer’s
decision journey”
09
GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION
© COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
The marketing effects of different tactics are constantly evolving, so marketing attribution is an
ongoing commitment. Make sure that the attribution approach you choose can accommodate the
dynamic nature of digital so that you can adjust to new market realities.
4. FOCUS ON CAUSALITY
The ultimate goal of any marketer is to discover what mix of
marketing investments drives the most conversions. What makes
marketing attribution so complex is that correlation looks a lot like
causation. It is far easier to observe that converters seem to share a
common trait than statistically proving that that trait is instrumental
in causing the conversion. Just because exposure to a particular
marketing event is common among conversions (correlation) doesn’t
mean it actually influenced to those conversions (causality).
It might be that exposure to a particular tactic is simply common across the entire population.
That investment may have in fact been wasteful. It’s the “post hoc ergo propter hoc” fallacy.
“After this, therefore because of this.”
There are proven statistical methods that can ensure you don’t fall into this trap. In order to
deliver real insight into “what works,” aka causality, you need to meet a certain burden of
statistical proof. You need to understand the differences between converters and nonconverters
to tease out events that correlate with conversion from those that actually cause it.
The quest for causality – a fundamental marketing attribution essential – requires the right inputs
and the right analytics. Without them you may easily mistake correlation for causation and may
actually allocate resources in a way that diminishes return.
5. THREE LEVELS OF ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
When most marketers think about the value of marketing attribution, they focus primarily on
its ability to help right-size budget allocations across media. Their hope is that it can provide
recommendations on increasing or decreasing the size of each
channel budget to achieve maximum results. That’s the modern
expression of John Wanamaker’s question.
This is a key part of what marketing attribution should do. But there
are other parts as well. Attribution should provide answers to three
questions, not just one:
“Attribution should
provide answers to three
questions, not just one.”
“What makes marketing
attribution so complex
is that correlation looks
a lot like causation.”
10
GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION
© COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
1. How should I allocate my spending across channels to achieve maximum ROI?
2. How should I allocate resources across vendors to achieve maximum ROI?
3. What is the precise value of a real-time impression for a particular person?
The way a statistician thinks about attribution is to use data analysis to estimate the effects of
different marketing events while controlling for other factors. The reason is that if we can get
good estimates of the revenue being generated by each event, we can create good estimates of
the relative value of each marketing activity and how to reallocate our spend to improve results.
Channel level allocation helps marketers fine tune their investments across various marketing
vehicles. This can be extremely valuable counsel as certain simplistic attribution models, like
last-click attribution, favor so called “bottom of the funnel” vehicles.
Vendor level allocation helps us choose partners that are delivering genuine, incremental
marketing value to a plan. It helps us understand if a step on a consumer journey is actually
causal. For example: using a last click attribution model, Paid Search often gets all the credit
for sales. Search plays a significant role in some cases. But a large percentage of consumer
searches are what is called “navigational searches,” meaning that the search engine is simply
used to make it easier to visit a website to buy something they were already going to buy. In those
cases, Search is getting “credit” for sales it really didn’t drive.
The third, impression-level analytics and recommendations, relate specifically to the real-time
bidding (RTB) media exchanges that have emerged as an important media buying channel.
A robust marketing attribution solution should be linked to your demand side platform (DSP).
That way, as an impression becomes available on the exchange your tool has a precise way of
assessing its value and bidding accordingly.
6. THE WILL TO ACT
OK, this attribution requirement is a little different from the others because it relates to how you
get maximum business impact from genuine marketing attribution.
Something happens on the way to an analytics-based brand strategy in many organizations; the
focus drifts to verifying the relevance and validity of our current strategies, rather than identifying
the best approaches for growth.
The challenge of analytics-driven marketing is that it requires commitment and alignment across
11
GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION
© COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
an organization. There can be no sacred cows, no pet tactics. Or at least if
there are sacred cows, we need to recognize that that’s exactly what they
are – that there are reasons other than ROI for why we do them.
For some people reading this, a fact-based approach to tactic selection
will seem a breath of fresh air. So many marketers I have spoken with
have said that their efforts to optimize marketing are hindered by
fad-driven decision-making higher up. “We need a widget!” “We need
an app!” “Why doesn’t our toilet paper brand have a Twitter account?”
As a statistician, I am a purist. If I had my druthers, everything would
be quantifiable and measurable. Not everything is quantifiable yet, but an organization
aligned to the value of analytics will get closer and closer to that goal over time. An analytics-
based approach demands that we recognize that better information has given us new insight.
Knowing and acting on that knowledge is a good thing. Knowing and not acting is irresponsible.
One final note: as we put marketing attribution insights into practice, we need to ensure we
don’t throw out babies with the bathwater.
A pure analytical approach might suggest that some tactics are ineffective and need to be
reconsidered. But this in no way questions the worth of individuals who were charged with
implementing those tactics. They might, for example, have been incredibly adept at getting
extraordinary results from a tactic even if it wasn’t the best use of funds. For that, the individual
deserves praise, not condemnation.
CONCLUSIONS
Marketing attribution is absolutely critical to your brand’s future success.
No brand has resources to waste pursuing marketing approaches that
aren’t driving maximum ROI.
In fact, in my view measurement is the #1 issue holding back digital
marketing from scaling to a $100B industry. Marketers can’t make
wholesale shifts in channel allocation from traditional to digital without
proof. And real proof only comes from algorithmic causal attribution.
The sobering reality is that most brands do not currently attribute
marketing effects in a genuine, fact-based way. It’s also unfortunate
that most of the “marketing attribution” tools and platforms out there
“No brand has
resources to waste
pursuing marketing
approaches that
aren’t driving
maximum ROI.”
“The challenge of
analytics-driven
marketing is that it
requires commitment
and alignment across
an organization.”
12
GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION
© COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM
aren’t really capable of doing the job right. But all is not lost! Believe it or not, genuine marketing
attribution is quite achievable. And in my view essential if marketing is to deliver on its full
potential for brands.
We hope that this white paper has made it a little easier for you to vet potential partners and
choose the best marketing attribution option for your business. I’d love to hear from you – about
your thoughts and experience in the world of marketing attribution or in the process of choosing
a partner. Please don’t hesitate to email me at MattAnthony@mediaplex.com.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Matt Anthony is the Senior Director, Analytics at Mediaplex, the technology and analytics arm
of ValueClick, Inc. (NASDAQ: VCLK). Matt’s responsibilities include analytical technologies
development for the main measurement and optimization tools that make up the backbone of
the Mediaplex analytics framework, as well as overseeing the Analytics Services business, where
Mediaplex offers full-service and custom analytical engagement support to its clients. Matt joined
Mediaplex in 2011, coming over from The Sports Authority, Inc. where he served as the Director,
Analytics for the eCommerce division. Prior to that, Matt was Director, Research and Development
at Datalogix (f.k.a. NextAction), where he oversaw algorithm and technological research
supporting their full product line. Matt has an MS, Statistics from Harvard University, and BS,
magna cum laude in Mathematical Social Science from Dartmouth College.
ABOUT MEDIAPLEX
Mediaplex, a division of ValueClick, Inc. (NASDAQ: VCLK), is the technology-empowered
analytics and optimization provider that scientifically identifies the best way for brands to invest
marketing resources and then executes against those insights with a suite of advanced campaign
management tools. Its unique software with service model delivers industry-leading technology
coupled with the deep analytics expertise necessary to answer Marketing’s most mission-critical
question: how to maximize ROI from marketing investments. With all the essential software and
services needed to correctly collect, manage, interpret, and action data, Mediaplex’s end-to-end
solution is the first to make genuine data-driven marketing a reality.
For more information visit Mediaplex.com or contact us at 1.877.402.PLEX (7539).

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2 23702 getting-it_right_the_road_to_genuine_marketing_attribution

  • 1. a WHITEPAPER from MEDIAPLEX GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION By Matt Anthony Senior Director – Analytics, Mediaplex ValueClick, Inc. (NASDAQ: VCLK)
  • 2. GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION © COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM PG.01 INTRODUCTION PG.01 ANALYTICS SPENDING IS ON THE RISE PG.02 ATTRIBUTION TAKES MANY FORMS. BUT ARE THESE FORMS ACCURATE? PG.03 THE DANGER OF SIMPLISTIC MODELS PG.04 AGENCIES AND ATTRIBUTION PG.05 ATTRIBUTION IS JOB ONE PG.05 DOING ATTRIBUTION RIGHT: 6 CHARACTERISTICS OF EFFECTIVE ATTRIBUTION APPROACHES PG.06 THE CHARACTERISTICS IN DEPTH PG.06 1. UNITED, CLEAN, HIGH QUALITY DATA PG.06 2. THE RIGHT TEAM PG.07 3. CUSTOM, ALGORITHMIC APPROACH TO ATTRIBUTION PG.08 4. FOCUS ON CAUSALITY PG.09 5. THREE LEVELS OF ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS PG.10 6. THE WILL TO ACT PG.11 CONCLUSIONS PG.12 ABOUT THE AUTHOR PG.12 ABOUT MEDIAPLEX
  • 3. 01 GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION © COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM You’re proably familiar with the above quote from department store pioneer John Wanamaker. It’s entertaining of course, but it’s also proof that the marketing attribution challenge is as old as marketing itself. Every year, hundreds of billions of dollars are spent on marketing tactics – often with patchy (or even no) evidence that all that money is delivering genuine value to the business. For decades, brands have struggled to identify accurate ways of assessing marketing impact. The advent of digital has inspired tremendous marketer interest in analytics and accountability. One of the key drivers of this interest is the recognition that brands need to be more effective at understanding “what works.” A 2012 survey of marketers conducted by IBM showed that just 34% of marketing organizations have a “sophisticated approach to ‘investing’ marketing resources and ‘engaging’ customers across multiple channels.”ii ANALYTICS SPENDING IS ON THE RISE According to a recent survey of more than 500 leading marketers conducted by Christine Moorman for TheCMOSurvey.org, the percentage of total marketing budgets devoted to analytics is expected to grow by almost 80% in the next three years. A 2012 study conducted by Google and eConsultancy showed that marketers have a variety of goals for their marketing attribution efforts, chief among them justifying budget and improving the marketing mix for better business results. Given this, accuracy INTRODUCTION i Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Wanamaker ii IBM The State of Marketing 2012: IBM’s Global Survey of Marketers http://www.slideshare.net/165yohodr/the-state-of-marketing-2012-ibms-global-survey-of-marketers-final iii Christine Moorman and TheCMOSurvey.org 2012 http://cmosurvey.org/results/ “Every year, hundreds of billions of dollars are spent on marketing tactics – often with patchy evidence that all that money is delivering genuine value.” “HALF OF MY MARKETING IS WORKING, I JUST DON’T KNOW WHICH HALF. ” iii i 8.0%   13.5%   0%   5%   10%   15%   Current  Levels   In  The  Next  Three  Years   Percent  of  Marke-ng  Budget     Spent  on  Analy-cs  Percent of Marketing Budget Spent on Analytics
  • 4. 02 GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION © COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM is paramount when estimating the revenue tied to particular channels or tactics, since inaccurate attribution would end up negatively affecting results. Since such issues affect the daily lives of most marketers, it’s quite natural that interest in attribution has become rather keen. ATTRIBUTION TAKES MANY FORMS. BUT ARE THESE FORMS ACCURATE? According to the IBM survey, 73% of marketing organizations attribute marketing effectiveness to specific tactics in some way. But delivering accurate sales impact attribution across media touchpoints is rather complicated. The vast majority of marketing organizations use one (or more) of five attribution models: ‱ Last-Click (or last View): Gives full credit to the final marketing event immediately preceding a conversion. ‱ First-Click (or First View): Gives full credit to the first marketing event to which a user is exposed during a campaign. ‱ Even Weighting: Assigns an equal fraction of the credit to every marketing event the customer is exposed to prior to converting. ‱ Business Rules Weighting: Applies a set percentage of the credit toeachmarketingevent precedingaconversionbaseduponapredeterminedweightingscale. ‱ Exponential Weighting: Applies a progressively larger percentage of the credit depending on how close marketing events were to the time of conversion. Each of these models is called “rules-based,” meaning that the model is assumed/assigned by thebrandoragency,ratherthanbeingderivedbaseduponacomprehensiveanalysisofabrand’sdata. “The vast majority of marketing organizations use one (or more) of five rules-based attribution models.” iv eConsultancy and Google Analytics: Marketing Attribution: Valuing the Customer Journey http://services. google.com/fh/files/misc/marketing_attribution_whitepaper.pdf 62%   57%   47%   36%   28%   36%   42%   39%   10%   7%   11%   25%   0%   25%   50%   75%   100%   Jus0fying  Digital   Spending   Create  Most  EïŹ€ec0ve   Media  Mix     Understanding   Funnel  and  Sales   Cycle  Length   Correctly   Determining  AïŹƒliate   Payments   High  Priority   Medium  Priority   Low  Priority   Marketer Goals for Attribution
  • 5. 03 GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION © COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM The Google and eConsultancy study revealed that the majority brands and agencies use the simpler methodologies to address the attribution challenge. Specifically: ‱ 54% of agencies and brands focus on last-click attribution (e.g., crediting an entire sale to the last touchpoint before purchase). ‱ 41% of agencies and 25% of brands manually assign weightings to different channels and apply those to their impact analyses. ‱ 41% of agencies and 24% of brands assign full credit to the first-click a consumer makes on a marketing experience.v (Note,figuresadduptogreaterthan100becausecompanies may use more than one method acrossbusinesses, campaigns,ortimeperiods.) Inpracticebrandsandagenciestendtochoose thesimplermethodsforattributingsalescredit, eventhoughtheirleadersrecognizethatthese approacheslikelydistortthetruevalueoftactics. Thesimplemethodsdistortbecausetheyarerules- ratherthanevidence-based.Attribution“credit” isassignedratherthandemonstratedthrough statisticalanalysis.Forexample,whilelast-clickis themostcommonattribution methodology, it is also the least trusted,accordingtothatsamesurvey. THE DANGER OF SIMPLISTIC MODELS The problem with these models is that they are simplistic, meaning that they make broad assumptions about the data to simplify the math of attribution. These attribution models are typically selected because they are easy to implement, not because they are accurate. It is natural for business people to want a simple solution, but simple and simplistic solutions are two very different things. v IBID http://services.google.com/fh/files/misc/marketing_attribution_whitepaper.pdf vi IBID http://services.google.com/fh/files/misc/marketing_attribution_whitepaper.pdf vii IBID http://services.google.com/fh/files/misc/marketing_attribution_whitepaper.pdf vi 54%   41%   41%   35%   13%   29%   19%   5%   54%   25%   24%   20%   16%   10%   9%   7%   0%   10%   20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   Last  Click   Customized  by  Channel   First  Click   Unique  Methodology   Not  Sure   Linear   ExponenJal   Other   Agency   Brand   Most Common Methods of Attribution vii 5%   13%   17%   9%   8%   25%   18%   49%   64%   69%   61%   55%   29%   27%   23%   14%   14%   0%   10%   20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   70%   80%   90%   100%   Customized  by   Channel   Unique   Methodology   Linear   First  Click   Last  Click   Very  EïŹ€ecIve   Somewhat  EïŹ€ecIve   Somewhat  IneïŹ€ecIve   Very  IneïŹ€ecIve   Marketer Assessment of the Effectiveness of Attribution Models
  • 6. 04 GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION © COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM I say these models are simplistic because for them to truly be accurate, then virtually every one of your customers would have to share a common “path to conversion”. That is absurd. And besides, if you knew the correct attribution weightings, why would you go to the trouble and expense of buying a rules-based attribution tool? It would add little value. Another issue with rules-based models is that they minimize or ignore the importance of demographic, psychographic, and behavioral user characteristics and their impacts on conversion. Rules-based models are focused primarily on an imagined sequence of marketing events, even though extensive research has demonstrated that set paths don’t actually exist. Using a simplistic attribution approach does make the attribution math easier, but using such a model without first demonstrating its validity is inherently dangerous. We might presume, for example, that spreading credit evenly across all marketing events leading up to a conversion would be more accurate than giving all credit to the final click. Sounds sensible enough, right? It seems logical that preceding events had to have had at least some role in causing a conversion. But did they? Without actually analyzing a brand’s data, that assumption is just as unproven as last-click or any other attribution model. It can be just as inaccurate – perhaps even more inaccurate than last-click. The whole point of attribution is to know rather than guess. To attach revenue estimates to various ad channels and tactics with the ultimate goal of changing overall strategy and marketing mix. Getting it wrong means making changes and choices that could be bad for your business! You may also be familiar with A/B testing methodologies that demonstrate the incremental value of marketing within a particular channel. They are common at the individual media vendor level, but it’s impractical to use them at the media plan level or in a cross channel analysis at this time. AGENCIES AND ATTRIBUTION Brands that rely on their agencies to measure and properly attribute credit to marketing investments need to be cognizant that most agencies use one or more of the rules-based methodologies. That’s even though most agency and brand people believe they aren’t very accurate. That’s not a criticism of agencies. Unless you are paying a separate line item for analytics-based attribution in your agency contract, your agency’s margins likely force them to use simplistic “The whole point of an attribution is to know rather than guess.”
  • 7. 05 GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION © COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM models. Expecting agencies to accurately deliver attribution without paying for it is absurd. Agencies are businesses after all. Historically, many clients have been unwilling to pay additional fees to their agencies for analytics-based attribution. As a result, their agencies have been forced to choose unproven rules-based approaches. They do their best with the resources you give them. If you expect your agency to deliver a genuine attribution solution, you’re going to need to pay separately for that service. Today’s lean commissions and fees simply don’t allow room for it. ATTRIBUTION IS JOB ONE If maximizing marketing ROI is your leading objective, then finding out precisely how to attribute credit for brand sales should be your most important challenge for the year. While simplistic solutions have an appeal, they ultimately put your brand’s success at serious risk. And here’s the rub: basing your action plan on unverified or simplistic models is a completely unnecessary risk. It’s actually possible to scientifically estimate the business impact of all marketing touchpoints, and to use this information to optimize your marketing allocations. Doingattributionrightisn’taproblemwaitingforsomeonetodevise a solution. The solution is here today. You can do it right now, and enjoy its benefits right now. Let me take that statement one step further.YouNEEDtodoitrightnow.Becauseasbusinessgoalsget tougher, achieving them will take greater marketing effectiveness, made possible by genuine insight. DOING ATTRIBUTION RIGHT: 6 CHARACTERISTICS OF EFFECTIVE ATTRIBUTION APPROACHES We’ve talked a lot about how not to go about attributing marketing impact. Let’s spend the balance of this paper defining how to do attribution right. On a fundamental level, a bona fide “As business goals get tougher, achieving them will take greater marketing effectiveness, made possible by genuine insight.” “Expecting agencies to accurately deliver attribution without paying for it is absurd. Agencies are businesses after all.”
  • 8. 06 GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION © COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM attribution solution must have the following six characteristics: 1. UNITED, CLEAN, HIGH QUALITY DATA 2. THE RIGHT TEAM 3. CUSTOM, ALGORITHMIC APPROACH TO ATTRIBUTION 4. FOCUS ON CAUSALITY 5. THREE LEVELS OF ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 6. THE WILL TO ACT Let’s examine each of these points individually. THE CHARACTERISTICS IN DEPTH 1. UNITED, CLEAN, HIGH QUALITY DATA In order for a marketing attribution solution to live up to its full potential, it must be able to bring together all of your data – cross channel marketing data, audience data, site data, and of course conversion data (online and offline). All of this information must be combined to create a unified cross channel dataset. The goal here is to create a “user-eye view” in the data. To achieve this, a unifiedUserIDsystem(oranaccuratewaytoassociatemultiplesystem IDstoeachother)isessential. It’s critical that you identify a solution that can integrate everything effectively. Data must be standardized, cleaned, and related to other data in order to deliver maximum value. What makes it such a difficult data management challenge is that different platforms utilize different data structures, formats and taxonomies. For example, working with Affiliate and Lead Gen data is rather different from working with Search or Display data. After being combined, data must be properly standardized, cleaned, and classified in order to deliver maximum value. Given all this, it’s critical that your attribution solution has the data management capabilities to integrate everything effectively. For Mediaplex this is not a new challenge. We’ve been collecting and managing data across sites, Display, Search, Video, Mobile, Affiliate and Rich Media for years. But whether you hire us, build a team in-house or work with another vendor, ensure that these data management capabilities are covered off VERY thoroughly. They are absolutely critical to laying the right groundwork for accurate attribution. “It’s critical that you identify a solution that can integrate everything effectively.”
  • 9. 07 GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION © COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM 2. THE RIGHT TEAM To perform statistically sound analysis on brand data, you need – guess what? – a statistician. Perhaps more than one. The mathematical challenges of achieving accurate marketing attribution are huge. The processes required to derive insights and answers from gigantic cross channel data sets are beyond the capabilities of most marketing generalists. It takes far more than being a whiz at Excel. Similarly, it challenges credulity to think that a pretty “attribution dashboard” alone can deliver true analytics. The biggest issue with SaaS-based D-I-Y solutions is that almost by definition they must leverage surrogate measures, incomplete math, and simplistic models to make themselves easy to implement and use. The uniqueness of your brand’s business gets lost when you use cookie cutter platforms. There are many great analysts in the world who aren’t PhDs in Statistics or Mathematics. But analysis is different from analytics. And revealing the true business impact of marketing tactics requires analytics, not reporting or analysis. I’mnotbeingpedantichere.The words simply describe different things. If you accept that you need statisticians to do the job, your next challenge is to get them on your team. You can hire them yourself or you can work with a solution provider that has an in-house team you can leverage. In my view, outsourcing is preferable for most companies. Here’s why. In addition to the infrastructure costs necessary for warehousing, storing processing the data, the cost of acquiring a first rate analytics/statistics team is very high. Demand for high quality statisticians well outstrips supply. According to a 2011 McKinsey Global Institute study, by 2018 the US “faces a shortage of 140,000 to 190,000 people with deep analytical skills as well as 1.5 million managers and analysts with the know-how to use the analysis of big data to make effective decisions.” viii viii McKinsey Global Institute, 2011 ix IBID  190,000      -­‐          50,000      100,000      150,000      200,000      250,000      300,000      350,000      400,000      450,000      500,000     2016  Deep  Analy5cal  Talent   Supply   Low  Es5mate  -­‐  2016   Demand   High  Es5mate  -­‐  2016   Demand   The  Deep  Analy,cs  Talent  Gap    140,000     285,000 The Deep Analytics Talent Gap ix “It takes far more than being a whiz at Excel.”
  • 10. 08 GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION © COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM When you outsource to a vendor that already has a top tier team and a world-class data infrastructure, you avoid the capital investment, hiring and salary expenses as well as the time lag for finding and onboarding qualified individuals. You can be acting on insights and optimizing your plan far more quickly with an outsourced model. 3. CUSTOM ALGORITHMIC APPROACH TO ATTRIBUTION There is no shortage of companies claiming to offer a SaaS platform that can solve all of your attribution problems. Unfortunately true attribution is both custom and people intensive. You cannot apply a finite set of rules to every company. Nor can you “guesstimate” the proper credit allocation with any degree of accuracy. Guesstimation is guess work after all. As we observed earlier in this paper, there are many possible paths to conversion, not one. Further, consumer paths are constantly evolving and changing. Don’t rely on any attribution “solution” that depends upon on unverified “rules of thumb” to attribute impact to marketing vehicles. To get this right, statisticians must examine your actual brand data to identify the causative effects of various marketing event types. An algorithmic solution is the choice of true statisticians. It leverages your actual in-market data to derive a unique, brand-specific model that can then accurately quantify the effects of your marketing tactics. It reflects your category, your specific customers, and the state of your brand. It can be optimized to the specific metrics you care most about. Further, the dynamic nature of the media environment is constantly changing the roles that different media play in a customer’s decision journey. If you develop an allocation based upon the data for a particular period of time, its validity will likely be very high for a period immediately following. But over time an allocation loses its validity as the digital environment and consumer behavior change. Consider, for example, how Social has upended the conversion process in so many categories. The easy availability of expert– and crowd-based recommendations has dramatically altered the buying landscape. And Social isn’t the only vehicle that is dramatically altering the journey. As Search becomes more multiplatform and begins to include more visuals, its role is radically changing as well. Similarly, Rich Media is enhancing the role of Display in some categories – a banner with a video player has markedly different impacts than a static GIF format. “The dynamic nature of the media environment is constantly changing the roles that different media play in a customer’s decision journey”
  • 11. 09 GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION © COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM The marketing effects of different tactics are constantly evolving, so marketing attribution is an ongoing commitment. Make sure that the attribution approach you choose can accommodate the dynamic nature of digital so that you can adjust to new market realities. 4. FOCUS ON CAUSALITY The ultimate goal of any marketer is to discover what mix of marketing investments drives the most conversions. What makes marketing attribution so complex is that correlation looks a lot like causation. It is far easier to observe that converters seem to share a common trait than statistically proving that that trait is instrumental in causing the conversion. Just because exposure to a particular marketing event is common among conversions (correlation) doesn’t mean it actually influenced to those conversions (causality). It might be that exposure to a particular tactic is simply common across the entire population. That investment may have in fact been wasteful. It’s the “post hoc ergo propter hoc” fallacy. “After this, therefore because of this.” There are proven statistical methods that can ensure you don’t fall into this trap. In order to deliver real insight into “what works,” aka causality, you need to meet a certain burden of statistical proof. You need to understand the differences between converters and nonconverters to tease out events that correlate with conversion from those that actually cause it. The quest for causality – a fundamental marketing attribution essential – requires the right inputs and the right analytics. Without them you may easily mistake correlation for causation and may actually allocate resources in a way that diminishes return. 5. THREE LEVELS OF ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS When most marketers think about the value of marketing attribution, they focus primarily on its ability to help right-size budget allocations across media. Their hope is that it can provide recommendations on increasing or decreasing the size of each channel budget to achieve maximum results. That’s the modern expression of John Wanamaker’s question. This is a key part of what marketing attribution should do. But there are other parts as well. Attribution should provide answers to three questions, not just one: “Attribution should provide answers to three questions, not just one.” “What makes marketing attribution so complex is that correlation looks a lot like causation.”
  • 12. 10 GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION © COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM 1. How should I allocate my spending across channels to achieve maximum ROI? 2. How should I allocate resources across vendors to achieve maximum ROI? 3. What is the precise value of a real-time impression for a particular person? The way a statistician thinks about attribution is to use data analysis to estimate the effects of different marketing events while controlling for other factors. The reason is that if we can get good estimates of the revenue being generated by each event, we can create good estimates of the relative value of each marketing activity and how to reallocate our spend to improve results. Channel level allocation helps marketers fine tune their investments across various marketing vehicles. This can be extremely valuable counsel as certain simplistic attribution models, like last-click attribution, favor so called “bottom of the funnel” vehicles. Vendor level allocation helps us choose partners that are delivering genuine, incremental marketing value to a plan. It helps us understand if a step on a consumer journey is actually causal. For example: using a last click attribution model, Paid Search often gets all the credit for sales. Search plays a significant role in some cases. But a large percentage of consumer searches are what is called “navigational searches,” meaning that the search engine is simply used to make it easier to visit a website to buy something they were already going to buy. In those cases, Search is getting “credit” for sales it really didn’t drive. The third, impression-level analytics and recommendations, relate specifically to the real-time bidding (RTB) media exchanges that have emerged as an important media buying channel. A robust marketing attribution solution should be linked to your demand side platform (DSP). That way, as an impression becomes available on the exchange your tool has a precise way of assessing its value and bidding accordingly. 6. THE WILL TO ACT OK, this attribution requirement is a little different from the others because it relates to how you get maximum business impact from genuine marketing attribution. Something happens on the way to an analytics-based brand strategy in many organizations; the focus drifts to verifying the relevance and validity of our current strategies, rather than identifying the best approaches for growth. The challenge of analytics-driven marketing is that it requires commitment and alignment across
  • 13. 11 GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION © COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM an organization. There can be no sacred cows, no pet tactics. Or at least if there are sacred cows, we need to recognize that that’s exactly what they are – that there are reasons other than ROI for why we do them. For some people reading this, a fact-based approach to tactic selection will seem a breath of fresh air. So many marketers I have spoken with have said that their efforts to optimize marketing are hindered by fad-driven decision-making higher up. “We need a widget!” “We need an app!” “Why doesn’t our toilet paper brand have a Twitter account?” As a statistician, I am a purist. If I had my druthers, everything would be quantifiable and measurable. Not everything is quantifiable yet, but an organization aligned to the value of analytics will get closer and closer to that goal over time. An analytics- based approach demands that we recognize that better information has given us new insight. Knowing and acting on that knowledge is a good thing. Knowing and not acting is irresponsible. One final note: as we put marketing attribution insights into practice, we need to ensure we don’t throw out babies with the bathwater. A pure analytical approach might suggest that some tactics are ineffective and need to be reconsidered. But this in no way questions the worth of individuals who were charged with implementing those tactics. They might, for example, have been incredibly adept at getting extraordinary results from a tactic even if it wasn’t the best use of funds. For that, the individual deserves praise, not condemnation. CONCLUSIONS Marketing attribution is absolutely critical to your brand’s future success. No brand has resources to waste pursuing marketing approaches that aren’t driving maximum ROI. In fact, in my view measurement is the #1 issue holding back digital marketing from scaling to a $100B industry. Marketers can’t make wholesale shifts in channel allocation from traditional to digital without proof. And real proof only comes from algorithmic causal attribution. The sobering reality is that most brands do not currently attribute marketing effects in a genuine, fact-based way. It’s also unfortunate that most of the “marketing attribution” tools and platforms out there “No brand has resources to waste pursuing marketing approaches that aren’t driving maximum ROI.” “The challenge of analytics-driven marketing is that it requires commitment and alignment across an organization.”
  • 14. 12 GETTING IT RIGHT: THE ROAD TO GENUINE MARKETING ATTRIBUTION © COPYRIGHT 2012 MEDIAPLEX. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MEDIAPLEX.COM aren’t really capable of doing the job right. But all is not lost! Believe it or not, genuine marketing attribution is quite achievable. And in my view essential if marketing is to deliver on its full potential for brands. We hope that this white paper has made it a little easier for you to vet potential partners and choose the best marketing attribution option for your business. I’d love to hear from you – about your thoughts and experience in the world of marketing attribution or in the process of choosing a partner. Please don’t hesitate to email me at MattAnthony@mediaplex.com. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Matt Anthony is the Senior Director, Analytics at Mediaplex, the technology and analytics arm of ValueClick, Inc. (NASDAQ: VCLK). Matt’s responsibilities include analytical technologies development for the main measurement and optimization tools that make up the backbone of the Mediaplex analytics framework, as well as overseeing the Analytics Services business, where Mediaplex offers full-service and custom analytical engagement support to its clients. Matt joined Mediaplex in 2011, coming over from The Sports Authority, Inc. where he served as the Director, Analytics for the eCommerce division. Prior to that, Matt was Director, Research and Development at Datalogix (f.k.a. NextAction), where he oversaw algorithm and technological research supporting their full product line. Matt has an MS, Statistics from Harvard University, and BS, magna cum laude in Mathematical Social Science from Dartmouth College. ABOUT MEDIAPLEX Mediaplex, a division of ValueClick, Inc. (NASDAQ: VCLK), is the technology-empowered analytics and optimization provider that scientifically identifies the best way for brands to invest marketing resources and then executes against those insights with a suite of advanced campaign management tools. Its unique software with service model delivers industry-leading technology coupled with the deep analytics expertise necessary to answer Marketing’s most mission-critical question: how to maximize ROI from marketing investments. With all the essential software and services needed to correctly collect, manage, interpret, and action data, Mediaplex’s end-to-end solution is the first to make genuine data-driven marketing a reality. For more information visit Mediaplex.com or contact us at 1.877.402.PLEX (7539).