This document summarizes a meeting of the Food and Beverages Processing Expert Group in Paris on March 4th 2014. It provides an overview of the food and beverages processing sector in South-East Europe, including its characteristics, analysis, and opportunities for development. Key points discussed include the sector's importance for employment, exports, and leveraging the region's natural resources and market access to the EU and CEFTA. Non-tariff barriers to trade were also examined.
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Overview of the Food and Processing Sector in South East Europe
1. Next Generation Competitiveness Initiative
First Meeting of the Food and Beverages
Processing Expert Group
Paris, March 4th 2014
With the financial assistance
of the European Union
2. OVERVIEW OF THE FOOD
AND BEVERAGES
PROCESSING SECTOR IN
SOUTH-EAST EUROPE
2
6. For discussion:
The food and beverages manufacturing sector is more
• Can food and beverage
evenly distributed across the region than other sectors
processing be considered a
Concentration of food and beverages
manufacturing in CEFTA* (2008-10)
priority vehicle for regional
and rural development?
Concentration of motor vehicles
manufacturing in CEFTA* (2008-10)
The map shows the share of sector turnover in each sub-national region of SEE. The shares do not add
up to 100% because Moldova (not shown on this map) is included in the total.
Source: OECD (2013), “Industry Concentration and Country Specialisation in CEFTA”, CEFTA Issues Paper 5
Nb: CEFTA includes Moldova as well as the Western Balkan economies.
6
7. Food and beverages processing accounts for a
large share of manufacturing employment
Share of FBP in manufacturing employment
(average 2008-2010)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
KOS
SRB
MNE
HRV
BIH
Employment in food and beverage processing (share of total)
ALB
MKD
SEE
7
Source: OECD (2013), “Industry Concentration and Country Specialisation in CEFTA”, CEFTA Issues Paper 5
8. Food and beverages processing contributes more
to total exports in SEE than in the EU
Food and beverages processing exports as % of total exports
(2011)
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
SRB
MNE
MKD
HRV
Food Products, Beverages and Tobacco
BIH
SEE
ALB
EU
8
Source: OECD (2013), STAN Database – No data available for Kosovo
9. Processed goods account for the largest share of
For discussion:
SEE agro-food exports
• Is there potential to increase
exports of processed goods?
Raw and processed exports as % of total agro-food exports (2011)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
MNE
EU
BIH
HRV
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry and Fishing
SRB
MKD
ALB
Food products, Beverages and Tobacco
9
Source: OECD (2013), STAN Database – No data available for Kosovo
10. The food and beverages sector’s export performance
is also underlined by its high RCAs
Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) indices in manufacturing sectors (2009)
SEE (+
Moldova)
Wood and Cork
Textiles, Leather and Footwear
Other Non-Metallic Mineral Products
Food, Beverages and Tobacco
Fabricated Metal Products
Basic Metals
Electrical Machinery and Apparatus n.e.c
Rubber and Plastics Products
Pulp, Paper, Printing and Publishing
Coke, Petroleum Products
Other Transport Equipment
Machinery and Equipment, n.e.c
Chemicals and Chemical Products
Motor Vehicles, Trailers and Semi-Trailers
Pharmaceuticals
Medical, Precision and Optical Instruments
Radio, TV and Communication Equipment
ICT
Office, Accounting and Computing Machinery
3.91
2.29
2.25
1.92
1.68
1.61
1.23
1.16
1.09
1.06
0.92
0.67
0.50
0.29
0.23
0.21
0.20
0.19
0.15
ALB
1.32
8.75
2.33
0.80
2.09
0.93
0.63
0.37
1.00
0.27
0.02
0.11
0.06
0.04
0.05
0.04
0.07
0.07
0.10
BIH
7.50
2.09
1.47
0.97
2.69
1.89
0.56
0.73
1.17
0.92
0.20
0.61
0.40
0.51
0.04
0.10
0.02
0.04
0.02
HRV
5.07
1.45
3.31
1.51
1.71
0.48
1.71
0.63
1.07
2.02
1.96
0.86
0.63
0.27
0.21
0.28
0.34
0.28
0.16
MKD
0.51
5.00
2.24
2.02
0.99
3.77
0.48
0.84
0.32
0.20
0.08
0.30
0.46
0.10
1.34
0.16
0.03
0.06
0.05
MNE
5.54
0.12
0.25
2.08
0.75
8.71
0.07
0.08
0.64
0.42
0.23
0.82
0.09
0.12
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.04
SRB
2.38
1.66
1.33
2.61
1.48
2.22
1.19
2.33
1.45
0.43
0.45
0.67
0.52
0.32
0.06
0.20
0.20
0.22
0.27
RCA indices compare the share of a sector’s exports in a country’s total exports with the share of the same sector’s exports in total
10
world exports. Here, total exports refer to total manufacturing exports. A RCA > 1 indicates a specialisation in a sector.
Source: Based on OECD STAN Bilateral trade database by industry and end-use category – No data available for Kosovo
11. For discussion:
SEE economies have complementary strengths in
• How can complementarities
food and beverages processing between SEE economies in
food and beverages processing
be leveraged more?
RCA indices in agro-food sub-sectors (2012)
Live animals chiefly for food
Meat and preparations
Dairy products and birds' eggs
Fish, crustacean and molluscs, and preparations
Cereals and cereal preparations
Vegetables and fruit
Sugar, sugar preparations and honey
Coffee, tea, cocoa, spices, and manufactures
Feeding stuff for animals
Beverages
Oil seeds and oleaginous fruit
Crude animal and vegetable materials, nes
Animal oils and fats
Fixed vegetable oils and fats
Animal and vegetable oils and fats and waxes
Fertilizers, manufactured
Animals, live, nes
ALB
0.0
0.3
0.6
3.1
0.2
1.0
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.0
5.7
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
9.2
BIH
0.6
0.8
2.5
0.4
0.7
0.9
3.9
0.7
0.5
0.9
0.0
0.4
0.0
1.7
0.1
0.5
0.9
HRV
4.2
1.0
1.2
2.1
2.0
0.6
5.4
1.1
1.0
2.1
1.2
0.6
0.8
0.2
0.7
7.4
0.4
MKD
0.8
1.2
0.5
0.3
1.3
3.8
0.9
0.7
0.1
4.2
0.2
0.8
0.0
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.8
MNE
0.0
2.4
0.1
0.0
1.4
1.8
0.0
2.3
0.0
11.7
0.0
0.3
5.1
1.2
1.5
0.0
0.1
SRB
4.5
0.7
1.5
0.1
6.7
4.0
5.6
1.5
2.6
3.4
1.0
1.1
0.4
3.1
1.1
1.4
0.7
RCA indices compare the share of a sector’s exports in a country’s total exports with the share of the same sector’s exports
in world exports. For this table, total exports refers to total commodity exports.
Source: Based on UN Comtrade – No data available for Kosovo
11
13. Analysis of the food and beverages processing
sector – key elements
2
Analysis of the food and beverages processing sector
Geography and natural resources
Market access to foreign economies
Demand trends
Food and beverages production structure
Productivity and competitive position
13
14. Analysis of the food and beverages processing
sector – key elements
2
Analysis of the food and beverages processing sector
Geography and natural resources
Market access to foreign economies
Demand trends
Food and beverages production structure
Productivity and competitive position
14
15. The SEE region has relatively diverse and unpolluted
For discussion:
• How can the SEE economies
natural resources
reap benefits from their
natural resources?
•
Large areas of
unpolluted or
not intensively
cultivated land
•
Adriatic coastline (Croatia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina)
•
Mountainous areas less favourable to agriculture but potentially favourable
to expansion in niche markets (agro-tourism)
•
Diverse natural
resources
Large shares of arable land (Serbia, Croatia)
Diversity in climate, soils and agricultural practices leads to diversified offer
in food and beverages processed goods
•
Limited use of agro-chemicals and mineral fertilizers
•
Extensive protected natural areas (e.g. national parks, natural reserves)
•
Favourable pre-conditions for organic production and eco-tourism
•
Growth in
organic
production
Production and retail structure in SEE with good fit to organic market (e.g.
small-scale production, direct selling)
•
Some economies with targets for organic production: Croatia aiming to
increase share of organic agricultural land to 8% by 2016; FYR Macedonia to
2%
15
16. The mild climate in SEE is favourable to agriculture
Climatological station
Average nb of frost-free days
First planting date*
Sarajevo, BIH
269
April 12
Tirana, ALB
339
February 9
Skopje, MKD
281
April 8
Belgrade, SRB
307
March 28
Zagreb, HRV
276
April 10
Bucharest, ROM
252
April 16
Sofia, BGR
252
April 10
Ljubljana, SVN
257
April 14
Source: World Bank (2010), Agricultural Sector Policy Notes for Bosnia and Herzegovina
* The first planting date is estimated by an algorithm by R.L. Snyder, et al. (2005), based on the assumption that planting is
less risky after the first date with 50 percent or less probability of having a frost event
16
17. Climate change will affect agriculture and food
For discussion:
production in SEE
• What opportunities and
threats does climate change
bring?
Projections of extreme temperatures in Europe (1961 – 2011)
Maps show changes in extreme temperature for two future periods, relative to 1961-1990. Extreme temperatures are
represented by the combined number of hot summer (June-August) days (TMAX>35°C) and tropical nights (TMIN>20°C).
17
Source: European Environment Agency
18. For discussion:
• Is food price fluctuation
Food prices are expected to increase and fluctuate
currently an important issue to
with more frequent extreme weather companies?
events
SEE
• Which instruments are
FAO Food Price Index currently used to control the
risk of price fluctuations?
The FAO Food Price Index is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of
food commodities.
180
160
140
General trend: Biofuel production, diminishing
food stocks, growing demand in Asia, oil
prices, etc.
120
100
80
60
40
20
Drought in Russia
(summer 2010)
Unfavourable
weather conditions
in major producing
regions, (e.g. drought
in Australia)
0
Deflated Price Index
Sources: FAO (2014), « FAO Food Price Index », FAO
18
19. Geographical proximity to the
market from SEE economies
For discussion:
EU Are SEE food and beverages
• lowers time-tocompanies using their time-tomarket advantage by targeting
Central and Western European
economies?
Road transport to Frankfurt, time in hours (2014)
25
20
15
10
5
0
19
Source: Google Maps
20. Analysis of the food and beverages processing
sector – key elements
2
Analysis of the food and beverages processing sector
Geography and natural resources
Market access to foreign economies
Demand trends
Food and beverages production structure
Productivity and competitive position
20
21. SEE economies have preferential access to the
CEFTA and EU markets
Destination markets for SEE exports
in agricultural products (2011)*
Destination markets for SEE exports in
Food and Beverages Processing (2011)*
World, 7.3
%
World, 17.0
%
CEFTA, 34.
7%
EU, 48.3%
•
•
EU, 43.0%
CEFTA, 49.
6%
Trade with CEFTA
• Almost all tariffs for agricultural products were removed in CEFTA
• Nb- As of its entry in the European Union, Croatia is no longer a member of
CEFTA.
Trade with the EU
• In 2000, the Western Balkans obtained duty-free access for almost all products
• SEE economies are gradually reducing their tariffs on imports from the EU
Source: European Commission (2013), « Bilateral agricultural trade relations », EC. OECD (2013) Statistics
* Calculated as percentage of total export sales. Croatia was part of CEFTA in 2011 and is therefore included in the
exports to CEFTA.
22. For discussion:
However trade is still constrained by non-tariff barriers, in
• What non tariff barriers does
your firm face when trying to
particular sanitary and phytosanitary measures
export food and beverage
products?
The boxes represent different indicators of the OECD Multilateral Monitoring Framework for non-trade barriers.
The boxes in orange represent the dimensions on which the score for CEFTA Which3export procedures are
• is below out of 5.
most time consuming?
Sanitary and
Technical Barriers
to Trade
1. Transposition of EU
legislation
2. Implementation of
EU legislation
3. Participation in EU
standardisation
Phytosanitary
Measures
1. SPS institutional
framework
3. Framework for SPS
legislation
4. Transposition of
European SPS measures
5. Information and
notification
mechanisms
5. Information and
notification
1. Customs website
2. Enquiry points
3. Involvement of the
trade community
4. Advance rulings
5. Appeals procedures
2. Co-operation among
SPS agencies
4. Institutional
framework for
accreditation
Source: OECD (2014- upcoming)
Administrative Barriers to Trade
6. Fees and charges
7. Documentation
automation and single
window
8. Risk management
and post control audit
9. Customs procedures
and processes
11. Cross-border
agency co-operation
10. Domestic agency
co-operation
22
23. SEE food and beverage exports almost doubled
between 2005 and 2011
SEE food and beverage export trends, USD millions
2000
AAGR SRB:
15.8%
1800
1600
1400
1200
HRV: 4.3%
1000
800
600
MKD: 13.2%
BIH: 15.9%
400
200
MNE: 8.3%
ALB: 13.2%
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
ALB
BIH
HRV
MKD
2009
MNE
2010
SRB
2011
23
Source: OECD STAN Bilateral Trade Database – No data for Kosovo available
24. However, export growth has been slower than growth
in food and beverage exports from the BRICS
BRICS food and beverage exports, USD billions
50
AAGR Brazil: 14.5%
45
40
China: 15%
35
30
25
India: 21.7%
20
15
10
Russia: 18.2%
5
0
South Africa: 7%
2005
Brazil
2006
China
2007
India
2008
2009
Russian Federation
2010
2011
South Africa
24
Source: OECD STAN Bilateral Trade Database
25. Analysis of food and beverages processing sector
– key elements
2
Analysis of the food and beverages processing sector
Geography and natural resources
Market access to foreign economies
Demand trends
Food and beverages production structure
Productivity and competitive position
25
26.
27. The food and beverages sector has been
characterised by strong growth at the regional and
world levels
Growth in SEE exports and world demand (2006-2012)
High growth
Road vehicles
Low growth
Average annual growth in SEE exports
25%
20%
Chemicals
Coke and
petroleum
15%
Paper
products
Electric
machinery
10%
Wood
products Office machines,
5% data processing
equipment
Textiles
and
apparel
0%
-5%
-10%
Machinery
and
equipment
Basic metals
Non-metallic
mineral mfg
0%
-2%
Furniture
Mfg of
metals
Food and
beverages
Rubbers
4% and plastics
2%
6%
8%
10%
Other
transport
equipment
Average annual growth in world imports
Source: based on UNComtrade – NB: The size of the bubbles represents the size of the sectors as measured by total world
exports in 2012.
27
28. SEE has gained market shares in key food and beverages
sub-sectors but growth could be further enhanced
Growth in SEE exports and world demand (2006-2012)
35%
Animal oils and fats Vegetable oils and fats
Average annual growth in SEE exports
30%
Feeding stuff for
animals
25%
How to
move
up?
20%
15%
Oil seeds and
oleaginous fruit
Fertilizers, manufactur
ed
Cereals
Dairies
Vegetables and fruits
Beverages
Meats
10%
5%
Fish products Miscellaneous edible
Sugars
products
0%
0%
-5%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Coffee, tea, cocoa and
spices
-10%
Average annual growth in world imports
Source: based on UNComtrade – NB: The size of the bubbles represents the size of the sectors as measured by total world
exports in 2012.
28
29. Consumer demands are
and healthier products
Changing patterns in food
consumption
•
•
In the EU, the market for organic food almost
doubled between 2004 (10 bn EUR) and
2011 (19.7 bn EUR). The largest markets for
organic products in 2011 were Germany (6.6 bn
EUR), France (3.7 bn EUR) and the UK (1.9 bn
EUR)
In SEE, the market for organic food has been
expanding but at a slower pace due to
weaker purchasing power and more limited
awareness of the benefits of organic products
(Grozdanic, 2013)
For discussion:
switching towards safer
• Has the food and
beverages processing
sector in the SEE region
a suitable profile to meet
demand changes?
Motives for food choices in SEE
0
1
2
3
4
5
Sensory appeal
Price
Health
Natural content
Convenience
Mood
Familiarity
•
Currently, the demand for organic and healthy
products has been met mostly through
imports from the EU (Grozdanic, 2013)
Weight control
Ethical concern
29
Source: Willer et al., 2013 and Grozdanic, 2013
Source: Focus-Balkans Project, 2011
30. Analysis of food and beverages processing sector
– key elements
2
Analysis of the food and beverages processing sector
Geography and natural resources
Market access to foreign economies
Demand trends
Food and beverages production structure
Productivity and competitive position
30
31. Primary production is highly fragmented and food
processing is dominated by small firms
Average turnover by company in food
and beverages
manufacturing, thousand EUR (2009)
Average farm size, ha/farm (2008)
14
2500
12
2000
10
1500
8
6
1000
4
500
2
0
0
EU27
SRB
BIH
MNE HRV MKD
KOS
ALB
Source: Volk, Tina (2010), “Agriculture in the Western
Balkans Countries”, IAMO
FRA
SRB
ROM
HRV
BGR
MKD
Sources: FAO country briefs, Eurostat and
OECD (2012)
MNE
ALB
31
32. For discussion:
The food retail sector on the other hand is food and
• How can
becoming increasingly concentrated beverages suppliers
increase their bargaining
Selected trends
power?
Shift in retailing from small shops and grocery stores to supermarkets
Retailers in food and beverages processing characterised by increasing levels of
concentration and foreign investment
In Croatia, Konzum (Agrokor) accounted for 30% of the food retailing market in
2011
In Serbia, predominance of DELTA Maxi (now Delhaize Group) in food retailing
with a market share of about 22% in 2011
•
•
Large retailers take increasing control over production by introducing private
labels
•
Increasing introduction of “private labels” (e.g. Premia/Delta)
Implications on domestic producers
•
•
•
Large retailers prefer to consolidate supplier base
Small domestic producers have limited bargaining power
Products in supermarkets are often imported
32
33. For discussion:
The food and beverages sector has attracted FDI but
• Why is FDI performance
further potential could be exploited
in the food and beverage
Manufacturing turnover by industry
(2009)
Food and
beverages 28%
Food and beverages
Chemicals and chemical products
Textiles, apparel and leather
Other
processing sector rather
poor?
Manufacturing FDI by industry
(2010)
Food and
beverages
15%
The food and
beverages
processing
sector is
underrepresented in
foreign direct
investment
compared to
its share in
total
manufacturing
turnover
Basic and fabricated metals
Coke and refined petroleum products
Non-metallic mineral products
33
Sources: wiiw and OECD
34. Analysis of food and beverages processing sector
2
Analysis of the food and beverages processing sector
Geography and natural resources
Market access to foreign economies
Demand trends
Food and beverages production structure
Productivity and competitive position
34
35. SEE agricultural yields lag behind
For discussion:
• yields
EU What are the main
reasons for lower than
EU-average agricultural
yields in the SEE region?
Average yields as % of EU27 average (2008)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
ALB
BIH
HRV
wheat (t/ha)
KSV
MKD
MNE
cow milk (kg/cow)
SRB
35
Source: Volk, Tina (2010), “Agriculture in the Western Balkans Countries”, IAMO
36. However, yields in SEE have
the EU for many products
For discussion:
increased faster can lead to
• What levers than in
further productivity
gains?
Average growth in yields (2006-2011)
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Plums and sloes
Apples
-1%
Cherries
Wine
Wheat
Butter, cow milk
Milk, skimmed cowchicken
Meat,
Meat, pig
Maize
-2%
South-East Europe
EU
36
Source: FAO statistics (2013)
37. Price competitiveness varies across products but is
particularly high in fruit production
3000
EU average
3000
USD/tonne
USD/tonne
3500
Producer prices: Pork
Producer prices: Strawberries
2500
2000
1500
2500
2000
1500
1000
1000
500
500
0
0
MKD
SRB
Ukraine
HRV
Ukraine
Spain
Producer prices: Maize
HRV
SRB
MKD
Russia
ALB
Producer prices: Whole milk
USD/tonne
USD/tonne
400
BiH
350
300
250
200
600
500
400
300
150
200
100
100
50
0
0
Ukraine Russia
HRV
SRB
BIH
MKD
ALB
Source: FAO Statistics, 2013 – Figures based on data for 2011
Ukraine
SRB
BIH
MKD
Russia
HRV
ALB
37
38. For discussion:
Despite limited research capacities,what areas are innovations
• In the food and
in food and
beverages sector has innovation potential beverages
processing most important?
• How can the innovative
Limited research in agro-food:
capacity in Serbia
Example fromfood and beverages
• Very low overall R&D expenditures
processing be strengthened?
% Enterprises in the agro-food sector
•
Fragmented public research and often
obsolete infrastructure
•
Sometimes limited relevance of
research for businesses and weak
industry-science linkages
But innovation potential:
• Several companies have managed to
distinguish themselves through
innovation
•
Examples: Omega-3 enriched egg in
BiH; wine sub-sector which
introduced branding and marketing
innovations (e.g. Plantaze in
Montenegro)
50
that have introduced innovations
40
30
20
10
0
38
Source: Grozdanic, 2013
Source: Survey by the Serbian statistical office
41. Instructions for group work
• Please go to the discussion group you have been assigned to
(Groups 1 to 5).
• Please assess the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities
and threats that characterise the food and beverages
processing sector in SEE.
• The results of the discussion should be document on a flip chart.
• Please designate a rapporteur who will be responsible for
summarising the results of the discussion.
• You have 40 minutes.
41
After having seen the work done to improve the competitiveness of the FBP sector in the EU, let’s have a look into the competitive position of this same sector in the SEE region.
And I would suggest to do so by providing a high-level overview on the FB market…… and then look into some specific markets characteristics
FBP is the largest manufacturing industry in CEFTA, accounting for 27% of manufacturing turnover.Furthermore, we see that the weight of the sector is high in all SEE economies. It lies between 18 and 36 percent of the entire manufacturing industry.(The question arises, and we should discuss this also in the group break-outs later on, can this important position of FBP in the overall economy even be strengthened further? And how can this be achieved?)
But there is one fundamental difference between FBP and other manufacturing industries; and this is a positive one.FBP is less concentrated than other economies and therefore creates economic growth and employment across the entire region.Here we see contribution of each sub-region for FBP and automotive production. We see that FBP is much more evenly distributed.(A sector FBP sector strategy should also determine how far this sector can be a mean for rural development)
Also on the positive side: FBP is not only value creating: we have seen the share in manufacturing turnover.It is also creating employment.18% of all manufacturing jobs can be found in FBP. The share varies from one economy to the other; but it is high everywhere.
The sector also has an important contribution to exports and a positive effect on the commercial balance.FBP is responsible for 10% of the SEE region’s exports; more than the 7% on average in the EU.
Processed goods including more value added account for the majority of agro-food exports from the SEE region.However, on average this share is lower than that of the European Union.(In the light of the aim to create more value in the SEE region, the question arises whether the weight of processed goods in the total agro-food exports should be increased.And how this can be done.)
The strong export performance of the FBP sector in SEE isalsounderlined by high RCA indices.RCAs, standing for revealed comparative advantage, compare the share of a specific sectorin a country’s total exports on the one hand…… to the share of the sector’s exports in the total world exports on the other.A value greater than one, indicates a specialisation in the sector.This is the case for Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia in FBP. In Albania and BiH we see values close to one.
If we go one level deeper and look at agro-food sub-sectors, we see that the SEE economies are quite complementary.For instance, Croatia and Serbia are specialised in animal breeding, Macedonia and Montenegro in meat processing.Bosnia and Herzegoniva, Croatia and Serbia are strong in sugar production; Macedonia, Montenegro especially strong in beverages production.(We should discuss in this Expert groups how we can fully leverage these complementarities).
After this general overview of the FBP market in the SEE region, I suggest to go into more detail and look into some specific areas characterising the FBP sector:Geography and natural resourcesAccess to export marketsTrends in customer demandThe supply side including the production structureAnd how all these factors translate into the sector’s productivity and SEE’s competitive position.Let me now hand over to Anne-ChristelleOtt, from the OECD who will start addressing these points.
Serbia, where around 20% of the available agricultural land is not in use. (Grozdanic)Large areas of agricultural land not polluted and not intensively cultivated, making conversion faster and easierLimited use of agro-chemicals and mineralfertilizers (IAMAO report, Tina Volk)
Note: The first planting date is estimated by an algorithm by R.L. Snyder, et al. (2005),based on the assumption that planting is less risky after the first date with 50 percentor less probability of having a frost event (screen daily minimum temperature of lessthan 0° C). The listed station in each country was selected based on the availability ofcomplete and continuous data on minimum temperature.
Maps show changes in extreme temperature for two future periods, relative to 1961-1990. Extreme temperatures are represented by the combined number of hot summer (June-August) days (TMAX>35°C) and tropical nights (TMIN>20°C). All projections are the average of 5 Regional Climate Model simulations of the EU-ENSEMBLES project using the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the periods 1961-90, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 (Fischer and Schär, 2010).The impacts of climate change includethe increased magnitude of floods and droughts and greater resulting damage, aswell as reduction in crop yields. The
http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/Price volatilityafffects consumer- risk averse farmers are lesslikely to invest.According to the FAO, four variables in particular affect foodprices’ volatility: i) petroleumprices, ii) cropyields, iii) food stock levels and iv) exchange rates.+ Increasing usage of land for biofuel productionThe impact of cropyields on volatilityisexpected to increasewith more frequentextremeweatherevents (eg- a drought in Russia in the summer of 2010 significantlyincreasedfoodprices).
In 2000, the Western Balkans obtained duty-free exports for almost all products (with the exception of baby beef, wine and sugar). The economies therefore already have access to EU markets to a large extent.
Highest score- Involvement in the tradecommunityLowest score- Information and notification for SPSmeasuresAlthough most CEFTA Parties have established enquiry and notification points and are publishing notifications of their legislation and measures on official websites, these enquiry and notification points are not always functioning properly and have capacity limitations.
More generally, potential risk of marginalisation of small farmers and producers.
While large farms are not necessarilymore efficient, small farms have greater difficulty producing enough to be commercialized,integrating with value chains, and investing in modern production methods.
We were only able to highlight some of the characteristics of the food and beverages processing market in the SEE region. You will now have the chance to go more into detail.We would like to build on your sector expertise to understand what are the main challenges for private business in the SEE region.To do so, we have planned to do 2 group breakouts:The first one aims at identifying the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities of the FBP sector in the SEE regionThe second has the objective to reveal what policy barriers are responsible for the weaknesses and threats identified.I would now kindly ask you to break into groups of 5 to 6 people.You find a suggested split of the groups on the walls.If the Ambassadors in this room would like to participate, please join any of these groups.
We would ask you to develop a SWOT-analysis for the FBP market in the SEE region. SWOT stands for Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats.Here, you see the according framework for your discussion.The overview of the food and beverages processing sector in the SEE region in the previous OECD presentation has provided you with some information which you can include into your SWOT-analysis.However, please go beyond what has been shown and include strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats from your own experience in the sector.Please document your results on the flip chart and decide on a person to present your results. Let’s reconvene at 12 o’clock.We will build on the identified weaknesses and threats in a following group work to identify the underlying constraints to sector development.
At end of presentation of results: Thank you very much for presenting your SWOT-analysis results. The points you mentioned are very interesting and highly relevant for the further analysis.We will build on the identified weaknesses and threats in the next break-out to identify the underlying constraints to sector development.Let us now break for lunch and reconvene at 2pm in this room. Thank you very much.