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Reconciling inequality and growth
   objectives: can it be done?
             Isabell Koske
      OECD, Economics Department
           23 January 2012
Background of the study

          Economic context
          • Income inequality was high and rising in many OECD
             countries even before the crisis.
          • Possible trade-offs and/or complementarities between
             growth and inequality goals.
Context




          Main objective of the study:
          • Identifying win-win policies that help foster growth and
            reduce income inequality, but also those that entail
            trade-offs between the two objectives.
Inequality in household disposable income
                                         varies considerably across countries.

                                  Gap between the 10th and the 90th centile and the Gini index
Income inequality – an overview



                                               Household disposable income in the late 2000s
                                  10                                                                           0.6
                                  9
                                                                                                               0.5
                                  8
                                  7
                                                                                                               0.4
                                  6
                                  5                                                                            0.3
                                  4
                                                                                                               0.2
                                  3
                                  2
                                                                                                               0.1
                                  1
                                  0                                                                            0.0
                                        SVN




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                                         BEL




                                                 Centile ratio (left scale)   Gini coefficient (right scale)
Understanding inequality:
                                         accounting framework and policy levers

                                                Family             Self-                           Individual
                                                                                     Taxes &
                                              formation        employment                         consumption
Income inequality – an overview



                                                                                      cash
                                                 and            & capital                           of public
                                                                                    transfers
                                             composition         income                              goods
                                                                                                        Household
                                   Individual       Household         Household         Household
                                                                                                         adjusted
                                     labour           labour           market           disposable
                                                                                                        disposable
                                    income           income            income             income
                                                                                                          income




                                  Education &       Family           Tax policies        Cash transfers     Education &
                                  labour market     policies         (wealth,            and tax policies   health
                                  policies,         (child and       capital                                (access &
                                  migration &       elderly care),   income)                                coverage)
                                  gender policies   etc.                                                    policies
                                  etc.
The sources of inequality in household labour
                                           income vary across countries.

                                              Labour income inequality in the OECD
The distribution of labour income



                                                        Gini coefficients, late 2000s
                                    0.75
                                    0.70
                                    0.65
                                    0.60
                                    0.55
                                    0.50
                                    0.45
                                    0.40
                                    0.35
                                    0.30
                                    0.25
                                    0.20
                                            SWE



                                            NOR




                                            POL
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                                             CHL
                                            NLD




                                                  Indivdiual labour income (full-time employed)
                                                  Individual labour income (working-age population)
                                                  Household labour income
Where in the distribution are individual labour
                                          earnings most dispersed?

                                     Labour income inequality among full-time employees, 2008
The distribution of labour income



                                                          Centile ratio 50/10
                                    3.0
                                    2.5
                                    2.0
                                    1.5
                                    1.0
                                    0.5
                                    0.0




                                           KOR
                                             ISR
                                            FIN




                                           AUT




                                           HUN
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                                            CZE



                                             ISL
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                                           USA
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                                           SWE
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                                           NLD




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                                                           Centile ratio 90/50
                                    3.0
                                    2.5
                                    2.0
                                    1.5
                                    1.0
                                    0.5
                                    0.0
                                           SWE
                                           NOR




                                           POL




                                            PRT
                                           DEU

                                           CHE



                                           CAN
                                            NZL




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                                          OECD

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                                            FRA
                                           NLD
Workers in the financial sector enjoy an income
                                             premium, particularly at the top.
                                          Income premium of working in financial intermediation
                                                     rather than in manufacturing
The distribution of labour income



                                                  Cross-country average, 2008 or latest available year
                                    60%


                                    50%


                                    40%


                                    30%


                                    20%


                                    10%


                                    0%
                                            10    20      30        40       50       60       70        80   90
                                                                    Income quantile
Higher union membership tends to be associated
                                            with lower wage dispersion.
                                                Wage premium of union membership
The distribution of labour income



                                                Cross-country average, 2008 or latest available year
                                    40%


                                    30%


                                    20%


                                    10%


                                     0%


                                    -10%
                                           10   20      30       40       50        60      70         80   90
                                                                  Income quantile
Taxes and transfers reduce market income
                                     inequality by about one-fourth.

                              Gini coefficient of market income and disposable income
                                                             Late 2000s
                              0.55
The tax and transfer system




                              0.50
                              0.45
                              0.40
                              0.35
                              0.30
                              0.25
                              0.20
                              0.15
                              0.10
                              0.05
                              0.00
                                      SWE
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                                             Market income                Disposable income
In most, but not all countries the redistributive
                                     impact of transfers is higher than that of taxes

                                     The redistributive impact of taxes and transfers
                                        Point reduction in concentration coefficients, late 2000s
                              0.18
The tax and transfer system




                              0.16
                              0.14
                              0.12
                              0.10
                              0.08
                              0.06
                              0.04
                              0.02
                              0.00
                                      SVN
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                                                      Household taxes   Public cash transfers
The size and composition of public cash
                                   transfers vary across OECD countries.

                                             Public cash transfers to households
                                                           Percent of GDP, 2007
                              20
The tax and transfer system




                              18
                              16
                              14
                              12
                              10
                              8
                              6
                              4
                              2
                              0
                                   OECD
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                                     PRT
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                                    KOR


                                    TUR




                                    SWE
                                   Old age    Incapacity    Family    Unemployment   Other social policy areas
The redistributive impact of the tax system is
                                     a function of its size and progressivity.

                                          Size and composition of total tax revenues
                                                              2009
                               % of GDP
The tax and transfer system




                              60

                              50

                              40

                              30

                              20

                              10

                               0
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                                    NLD




                                     Personal income taxes           Corporate income taxes
                                     SSCs and payroll taxes          Taxes on goods and services
                                     Other                           Progressivity of household taxes (right axis)
Measures to improve human capital are clear
                             win-win strategies.
                                                                                Labour
                                                          Employment Earnings              GDP per
                     A rise in:                                                 income
                                                             rate    equality               capita
                                                                                equality
                     Equity in education                      ?          +         +         +
                     Upper-secondary and tertiary
Impact of policies




                                                              ?          +         +         +
                     graduation rates
                     Initiatives to foster the
                                                              +          +         +         +
                     integration of immigrants
                     Initiatives to raise female labour
                                                              +          +         +         +
                     force participation
                     Initiatives to combat
                                                              +          +         +         +
                     discrimination
In the area of labour and product markets, the
                             equality effects depend on the precise measure.
                                                                            Labour
                                                      Employment Earnings              GDP per
                     A rise in:                                             income
                                                         rate    equality               capita
                                                                            equality
                     Minimum wage (relative to
                                                          0/-        +         ?         0/-
                     median wage)
Impact of policies




                     Unionization                         ?          +         +          ?
                     Legal extensions of collective
                                                           -         ?         -          -
                     wage agreements
                     The gap between protection on
                                                           -         -         -          -
                     regular vs. temporary work
                     Product market regulation             -        0/+        ?          -
Many tax policies imply trade-offs with respect
                          to the growth and distribution objectives.
                                                             Disposable
                                                                          GDP per
                     Revenue-neutral tax changes:             income
                                                                           capita
                                                              equality
                     Change tax mix from income to
                                                                 -          +
                     consumption tax
                     Change tax mix from income to real
Impact of policies




                                                                 -          +
                     estate tax
                     Change tax mix from income to wealth
                                                                 ?          +
                     and inheritance tax
                     Increasing top PIT rates and tax free
                                                                 +           ?
                     allowances
                     Cutting tax expenditures and marginal
                                                                 +          +
                     rates
Contact information and underlying
                            documents.
                      Contact person
                      • Isabell Koske (Isabell.Koske@oecd.org)
                      Webpage
                      • www.oecd.org/economy/goingforgrowth/inequality.
Further information




                      Going for Growth 2012
                      • Reducing income inequality while boosting economic growth: can it
                         be done?, Chapter 5
                      OECD Economics Department Policy Notes Series
                      • Policy Note No. 8: Inequality in labour income – What are its drivers
                         and how can it be reduced?
                      • Policy Note No. 9: Income inequality and growth – The role of taxes
                         and transfers
OECD Economics Department Working
                            Paper Series
                      Working Paper Series on “Less income inequality and more growth –
                      Are they compatible? ”
                      • WP 924: Part 1. Mapping income inequality across the OECD
                      • WP 925: Part 2. The distribution of labour income
                      • WP 926: Part 3. Income redistribution via taxes and transfers across
Further information




                         OECD countries
                      • WP 927: Part 4. Top incomes
                      • WP 928: Part 5. Poverty in OECD countries
                      • WP 929: Part 6. The distribution of wealth
                      • WP 930: Part 7. The drivers of labour earnings inequality – An
                         analysis based on conditional and unconditional quantile regressions
                      • WP 931: Part 8. The drivers of labour income inequality – A review of
                         the recent literature

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Reconciling inequality and growth objectives: can it be done?

  • 1. Reconciling inequality and growth objectives: can it be done? Isabell Koske OECD, Economics Department 23 January 2012
  • 2. Background of the study Economic context • Income inequality was high and rising in many OECD countries even before the crisis. • Possible trade-offs and/or complementarities between growth and inequality goals. Context Main objective of the study: • Identifying win-win policies that help foster growth and reduce income inequality, but also those that entail trade-offs between the two objectives.
  • 3. Inequality in household disposable income varies considerably across countries. Gap between the 10th and the 90th centile and the Gini index Income inequality – an overview Household disposable income in the late 2000s 10 0.6 9 0.5 8 7 0.4 6 5 0.3 4 0.2 3 2 0.1 1 0 0.0 SVN KOR ISR FIN SVK AUT CZE HUN ITA JPN USA ISL LUX GBR GRC DNK CHL OECD ESP FRA AUS SWE NOR EST NLD POL CHE PRT CAN DEU TUR NZL IRL MEX BEL Centile ratio (left scale) Gini coefficient (right scale)
  • 4. Understanding inequality: accounting framework and policy levers Family Self- Individual Taxes & formation employment consumption Income inequality – an overview cash and & capital of public transfers composition income goods Household Individual Household Household Household adjusted labour labour market disposable disposable income income income income income Education & Family Tax policies Cash transfers Education & labour market policies (wealth, and tax policies health policies, (child and capital (access & migration & elderly care), income) coverage) gender policies etc. policies etc.
  • 5. The sources of inequality in household labour income vary across countries. Labour income inequality in the OECD The distribution of labour income Gini coefficients, late 2000s 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 SWE NOR POL EST DEU CHE CAN PRT KOR SVN IRL ISR FIN AUT BEL JPN ITA SVK ISL HUN CZE BRA OECD LUX GBR USA FRA AUS GRC DNK ESP CHL NLD Indivdiual labour income (full-time employed) Individual labour income (working-age population) Household labour income
  • 6. Where in the distribution are individual labour earnings most dispersed? Labour income inequality among full-time employees, 2008 The distribution of labour income Centile ratio 50/10 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 KOR ISR FIN AUT HUN JPN ITA CZE ISL OECD USA GBR GRC AUS SWE FRA DNK ESP NOR NLD POL DEU PRT CHE CAN IRL NZL BEL Centile ratio 90/50 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 SWE NOR POL PRT DEU CHE CAN NZL KOR IRL ISR FIN BEL HUN AUT CZE ITA ISL JPN OECD GBR USA ESP GRC DNK AUS FRA NLD
  • 7. Workers in the financial sector enjoy an income premium, particularly at the top. Income premium of working in financial intermediation rather than in manufacturing The distribution of labour income Cross-country average, 2008 or latest available year 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Income quantile
  • 8. Higher union membership tends to be associated with lower wage dispersion. Wage premium of union membership The distribution of labour income Cross-country average, 2008 or latest available year 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Income quantile
  • 9. Taxes and transfers reduce market income inequality by about one-fourth. Gini coefficient of market income and disposable income Late 2000s 0.55 The tax and transfer system 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 SWE NOR POL EST DEU PRT CHE CAN SVN NZL KOR FIN ISR SVK AUT BEL JPN ISL ITA USA LUX CZE OECD ESP GBR DNK FRA CHL AUS NLD Market income Disposable income
  • 10. In most, but not all countries the redistributive impact of transfers is higher than that of taxes The redistributive impact of taxes and transfers Point reduction in concentration coefficients, late 2000s 0.18 The tax and transfer system 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 SVN FIN KOR ISR AUT JPN ITA SVK ISL CZE LUX OECD USA GBR FRA CHL DNK AUS ESP SWE NOR POL EST NLD CHE DEU CAN PRT NZL IRL BEL Household taxes Public cash transfers
  • 11. The size and composition of public cash transfers vary across OECD countries. Public cash transfers to households Percent of GDP, 2007 20 The tax and transfer system 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 OECD MEX ITA DEU CAN DNK BEL CHL SVK AUS AUS IRL HUN GBR SVN USA GRC NOR CZE POL LUX ISL ISR ESP FRA CHE FIN JPN EST NZL PRT NLD KOR TUR SWE Old age Incapacity Family Unemployment Other social policy areas
  • 12. The redistributive impact of the tax system is a function of its size and progressivity. Size and composition of total tax revenues 2009 % of GDP The tax and transfer system 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 SWE NOR EST POL PRT CAN CHE DEU TUR SVN NZL IRL ISR FIN KOR SVK ITA HUN BEL AUT JPN USA CZE ISL OECD LUX GBR GRC ESP AUS FRA DNK NLD Personal income taxes Corporate income taxes SSCs and payroll taxes Taxes on goods and services Other Progressivity of household taxes (right axis)
  • 13. Measures to improve human capital are clear win-win strategies. Labour Employment Earnings GDP per A rise in: income rate equality capita equality Equity in education ? + + + Upper-secondary and tertiary Impact of policies ? + + + graduation rates Initiatives to foster the + + + + integration of immigrants Initiatives to raise female labour + + + + force participation Initiatives to combat + + + + discrimination
  • 14. In the area of labour and product markets, the equality effects depend on the precise measure. Labour Employment Earnings GDP per A rise in: income rate equality capita equality Minimum wage (relative to 0/- + ? 0/- median wage) Impact of policies Unionization ? + + ? Legal extensions of collective - ? - - wage agreements The gap between protection on - - - - regular vs. temporary work Product market regulation - 0/+ ? -
  • 15. Many tax policies imply trade-offs with respect to the growth and distribution objectives. Disposable GDP per Revenue-neutral tax changes: income capita equality Change tax mix from income to - + consumption tax Change tax mix from income to real Impact of policies - + estate tax Change tax mix from income to wealth ? + and inheritance tax Increasing top PIT rates and tax free + ? allowances Cutting tax expenditures and marginal + + rates
  • 16. Contact information and underlying documents. Contact person • Isabell Koske (Isabell.Koske@oecd.org) Webpage • www.oecd.org/economy/goingforgrowth/inequality. Further information Going for Growth 2012 • Reducing income inequality while boosting economic growth: can it be done?, Chapter 5 OECD Economics Department Policy Notes Series • Policy Note No. 8: Inequality in labour income – What are its drivers and how can it be reduced? • Policy Note No. 9: Income inequality and growth – The role of taxes and transfers
  • 17. OECD Economics Department Working Paper Series Working Paper Series on “Less income inequality and more growth – Are they compatible? ” • WP 924: Part 1. Mapping income inequality across the OECD • WP 925: Part 2. The distribution of labour income • WP 926: Part 3. Income redistribution via taxes and transfers across Further information OECD countries • WP 927: Part 4. Top incomes • WP 928: Part 5. Poverty in OECD countries • WP 929: Part 6. The distribution of wealth • WP 930: Part 7. The drivers of labour earnings inequality – An analysis based on conditional and unconditional quantile regressions • WP 931: Part 8. The drivers of labour income inequality – A review of the recent literature